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chenyueming

chenyueming
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  • Strong Presence In China Makes Mead Johnson Nutrition A Buy [View article]
    MJN ,KFC buying....
    Jun 27 01:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has A New China Bull Market Begun? [View article]
    A letter to my Cousin who wants to buy an apparment

    ( please understand forgive my mistakes since I self-taugh English in China and Markets) the letter I share with you there is no any interest purpose since I do not have any accounts in US, just love writting person ideas,thanks! )


    Dear Cousin, I have been chatting with your sister and known that you are facing a lot of pressure. Please call me when you have decided to buy an apartment. I will try my best to help you. I think I can help you 10K RMB. At present, I got a project, if everything working well then I will help you more.

    Be frankly, I think the housing price reached the maximum. There is very low possibility of rising price, while falling. Below is my analysis, please take a close read.

    First of all, Comparing with the similar big city like US. 100 Square meter apartment normally cost a little more than 1 Mllion RMB. I think it is similar like the current price in Guangzhou. But you know, US has developed more than 100 years capitalized market nation. It has very strong fundamental, and it gathered many investors around the world, however, there are many more population in China. But we have very big gap for the development of two countries. So I do believe the currently housing price in China is ridiculous high.

    Secondly, by analyzing the investment return, the purpose of buying house is for living or making money. Speculate apartment or Invest in long-term to general more income . Currently, the cost on investing housing is very high, the fees and taxes totally up to 10% of the investment. At currently market condition, you can not sell it out after hold it for a year, you got to wait a few years for the appreciation. So there will have few houses are selling in the future, lower activity creates pressure on the price. Another one is try to collect more rent, but compare with the US household income. A little more than 1million RMB apartment can get up to 8K RMB monthly rent, but China only got around 3K RMB, and you can not rent it out full months. If we calculate the investment return is 3% per year that means the return cannot pay back the interest if you are financing, because the interest rate is higher than 3% per year. That means you will loss money if you ask finance to buy an apartment, so I would say few people will interest to buy house , and drag the housing price.

    Like you just graduated from school, income is not high, not raised in a rich family, but very strong will to buy an apartment, For people who has money there must be stronger will to buy house. So we can tell, those people bough the houses already. Even some of them bough few more apartments already. Left them empty. Because they do not have any pressure right now, they like to invest in real estate business. So they won’t sell them out until they see some profit is showing. But where the buying power comes from? The developer will continue building more houses, that drive more revenue and profit for them, so there will be more supply in the next few years.But for those people who have living apartment or investing apartment. Do you think they can leave the apartment long time? I say no, they will sooner or later will make them into cash, they can not wait for more years, it ismatchable explaining of Chinese investment habit_ cannot hold investment long time. So they will selling a lot of more houses soon, lower price will come.


    By analyzing from the Populous, At present, most of the early 10s and 20s they are from 1 child families. When they grow up and their grandfathers grandmothers pass away there will be 2 apartments left for them, but they only need one when they marry.

    There are many reasons to tell, the room for housing price appreciation is very limited. There is nothing ,price only soaring but no falling. Pork ? Garlic? Or the ginger? No, Nothing can rise forever. Nothing can betray the market, even in China, there is a lot of government manipulation. The difference for the housing market because it is very big, the cycle is very long time, just be patient. I am expecting plunging housing price happen in China in the next two years.

    Please just be patient, think carefully when you have a peaceful heart. Sometimes a right decision is better than working hardly. Above is my person suggestion. Good luck!
    Jan 17 03:35 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reasons To Buy China Mobile, A Dividend Growth Stock [View article]
    I do not think China Mobile will make a agreement with Apple if they do not provide the compatible Iphone for TD-SCDMA and share the good profit with it. CHL is state owned company, at this point Chinese government will not give in to gain its owned Standard reputation. And we must know there are only 3 carriers in China, and CHL has the strongest positions since they provide best services, reliable signal. It dominate market and will lead long time. But APPL is a private company, and there are many reasons for them to give in since they are trying to bring more profit to their share holders ,facing critical rivals as well. We can tell the story of Nokia. Many good phones will come up and challenge its position soon.
    Jan 1 03:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sina Is Clearly In Play [View article]
    It is impossible for Sina to be bough by any other Chinese internet companies so far. The Sina Share holders will not selling.
    Jan 1 03:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Baidu - Why You Cannot Buy It [View article]
    yes, this guy seems avoiding China potential market. I think the decling market share is very common for a good business other people will cathch up. And Google is not easy to come back in the next few years. Google is better than Baidu on technology is true, but Baidu knows better than Google about Chinese behavior, I think the number of clients registered raising is very important, whereas the decling spending for each clients because the
    decling economy. I have no doubt about Baidu dominate position in China.Buy at the dip, buy buy buy lol lol lo!
    Jan 1 01:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Baidu - Why You Cannot Buy It [View article]
    If the reason Google Technology is better than Baidu then Baidu would not exisiting lised on Nasdaq and we are talking about it hotly. haha!
    Jan 1 01:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China Mobile: A Solid Cash Flow Buy While The Company Marries Nokia And Continues To Court Apple [View article]
    Can not find this data for you, but I know it accounts around 7.2% of China share. so that is around 72 million apple Users in China.
    Dec 31 09:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • China Mobile Has Structural Problems [View article]
    I think Tencent's we chat will final eat up of China Mobile minutes. There are 200 millions to use free voice message to communicate, it including voice message, pictures sharing,and funny stuffs. Just very popular for young people and I see more and more 40s people are using it. It just consume data, and this is very efficient software.
    Dec 31 07:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China Mobile Has Structural Problems [View article]
    I am living in China. I agree with Mr Casey. China Unicom has better reputation in China for 3G users.
    Dec 31 02:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China Mobile Has Structural Problems [View article]
    Nice experience in China. I think the Tech companies need to experience their services then you can tell better for the stock moving. lol lol....
    Dec 31 02:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Renren: An Excellent Long-Term Opportunity [View article]
    I am a native Chinese. Yes I can not agree with KEVtrading. Renren's position is not Like Facebook in the US or even in the world.
    Think about that most of Renen users are students, these group of people they do not have income. Just get the money from parents and play games on Renen. The very important thing is you need to understand the Chinese thinking. Because Renren is popular in students community, once they work then most of people will change theirs thinking and habits, particularly Chinese always think if you are always acting like student age, people will look down upon you, so they will soon or later quit the students habits. Escape from Renren.

    You may say they have the biggest students community to keep them using it. Actually, most of people they are using QQ, if they are good classmates or friendship, they have the best way of communication already.

    So I am always doubt why people always say Chinese Facebook, it is not true.
    Dec 23 04:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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