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DoghouseReilly

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  • Steel Producers: Building Momentum For The Anti-Dumping Trade Case [View article]
    Excellent - I've been watching as well. Unfortunately, even IF the trade case succeeds it'll be around a year before the tariffs get placed (as with the recent OCTG and welded line pipe cases). Even then, the Koreans (and others) will likely just eat the levy and keep shipping anyway as is now the case with OCTG. The only quick fix is a section 201 tariff as Bush did in 2002, but that seems hardly likely with 1) bigger trade fish to fry; 2) the backlash Bush took before pulling in 2003; 3) steel tariffs benefit an increasingly small sector of employment at the expense of a much larger one (the buyers of steel) and 4) the dems are unlikely to lose former "swing state" steel producers in 2016. In short - steel prices will stay depressed for years. It's the iron ore price decline repeated, both driven by the ramp-up and slowing of China. No escaping it.
    Mar 26, 2015. 07:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cliffs Natural Resources: How The U.S. Iron Ore Segment Is Affected By Steel Prices, Platts Iodex And Other Factors [View article]
    Excellent article. Thank you.
    Feb 21, 2015. 12:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Credit Suisse likes U.S. Steel, Cliffs to buck falling commodity prices [View news story]
    CSFB absolutely does not value CLF at $20/share. They value it at $1/share. The above SA author refers to CSFB's 2-13-2015 report "US Steel & Iron Ore Sector - You Might Be Hiding In The Wrong Place", on page 14 where CSFB describes the bull case that SOME investors believe. CSFB does NOT believe it.
    Feb 18, 2015. 07:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cliffs Natural Resources - The Best Laid Plans Of Mice And Men [View article]
    Great information. On the US IO, its unclear how the NPV is being calculated:
    - Which 62% fines price (or profit number) are driving the NPV numbers
    - Are you assuming no taxes or maintenance capex?
    - How many out-years are you assuming, a perpetuity?

    Thanks much.
    Nov 29, 2014. 01:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Allete Inc.: A 3.98% Yield Coupled With A Significant Increase In Earnings [View article]
    ALE is a disaster. It hasn't generated free cash flow since 2006. In fact, capex has exceeded EBITDA every single year since then and is projected to do so for at least the next 2 years. It has thus funded an unsustainable dividend for the last 8 years by increasing net debt (from $240m at 12/31/2006 to $1,224m at current) and by issuing equity (from 28m shares at 12/31/2006 to 42m shares at current).

    ALE's projects a potential additional 500MW of "growth projects", which are (with the exception of 20MW from Magnetation) are not going to happen:

    1) The Essar Steel Minnesota mine ("ESM", 110MW of projected additional load to ALE starting 2015) is officially dead. ESM is returning the $450m of debt proceeds back to the bondholders tomorrow, because it cannot get the equity infusion from ESM's parent company (8/31 deadline as extended through the recent ESM bondholder consent). ESM is unfinanceable at current iron ore prices, and it no longer has any customers - both of ESM's offtake agreements (Arcelor and Essar Steel Algoma) will go to CLF. There is no chance of it securing the requisite $1.5bn to complete the project.

    2) Polymet (50MWH expected for 2016) is a pipe dream. The company has produced zero revenue for the last 15 years. Assuming it gets all necessary permits mid-2015, it still needs to raise $500m of debt+equity to fund construction of the FIRST copper mine on the Mesabi range. Note that the last IRON ORE mine on the Mesabi was completed in 1990.

    3) ALE continues to claim US Steel's Keetac mine expansion as an opportunity, when US Steel has said it will not do (and does not need) the expansion.

    4) Mesabi Nugget - it is simply not economical to build a new iron ore mine in the Mesabi at current (and projected) world pricing. It makes far more sense to buy from existing mines in the US or Eastern Canada. See ESM above.

    So there you have it - no cash flow, no growth. Will a rate case bail them out? I doubt it. Will new investors continue funding the unsustainable dividend forever (aka Ponzi)? I also doubt that.
    Sep 4, 2014. 05:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Allete Reported Strong Q2 Revenue Growth And Rising Earnings [View article]
    I disagree entirely.

    ALE hasn't generated free cash flow since 2006. In fact, capex has exceeded EBITDA every single year since then and is projected to do so for at least the next 2 years. It has thus funded an unsustainable dividend for the last 8 years by increasing net debt (from $240m at 12/31/2006 to $1,224m at current) and by issuing equity (from 28m shares at 12/31/2006 to 42m shares at current).

    ALE's projects a potential additional 500MW of "growth projects", which are (with the exception of 20MW from Magnetation) complete disasters:

    1) The Essar Steel Minnesota mine ("ESM", 110MW of projected additional load to ALE starting 2015) is officially dead. ESM is returning the $450m of debt proceeds back to the bondholders tomorrow, because it cannot get the equity infusion from ESM's parent company (8/31 deadline as extended through the recent ESM bondholder consent). ESM is unfinanceable at current iron ore prices, and it no longer has any customers - both of ESM's offtake agreements (Arcelor and Essar Steel Algoma) will go to CLF. There is no chance of it securing the requisite $1.5bn to complete the project.

    2) Polymet (50MWH expected for 2016) is a pipe dream. The company has produced zero revenue for the last 15 years. Assuming it gets all necessary permits mid-2015, it still needs to raise $500m of debt+equity to fund construction of the FIRST copper mine on the Mesabi range. Note that the last IRON ORE mine on the Mesabi was completed in 1990.

    3) ALE continues to claim US Steel's Keetac mine expansion as an opportunity, when US Steel has said it will not do (and does not need) the expansion.

    4) Mesabi Nugget - it is simply not economical to build a new iron ore mine in the Mesabi at current (and projected) world pricing. It makes far more sense to buy from existing mines in the US or Eastern Canada. See ESM above.

    So there you have it - no cash flow, no growth. Will a rate case bail them out? I doubt it. Will new investors continue funding the unsustainable dividend forever (aka Ponzi)? I also doubt that.
    Sep 4, 2014. 04:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ClearSign Of Upside Potential [View article]
    - SCON: You said you "got in below $2, exited above $4". In pre-reverse terms (the 1 for 12 on 3/12/13), in the 3.5 years since 1/1/2011 the stock never closed above $3.73 and in fact only spent 5 days over $3.33. There was a 90 minute period on 3/3/11 when a handful of trades took place just over $4, but that's the only possible window for you. Is that what you're now claiming? To have absolutely top-ticked SCON and sold your entire position in in the perfect 90 minute window over 3.5 years, a 1 in 3800 shot? Really incredible AI.
    - UNXL: So as I said, you bought in that 60 day window in 2010. The 3.5% of total trading UNXL trading days. Once again, absolutely incredible.
    - HEAR: What you're referring to is not an IPO, it's a secondary. They offered 2m shares on top of the 4.3m already outstanding. Try actually reading the documents you post (and try posting the final not the preliminary prospectus). I'd expect a 6-year head trader for a medium sized hedge fund to know the difference.
    - WATT: You said you "got in at the IPO", which is hugely different than buying the morning of the IPO. Those who actually got IPO shares received them at $6, while those who bought that day paid up to $11.50, nearly double. Of note is the current $11.75 stock price. Extremely misleading and another surprising mistake for a 6-year head trader.
    - RESN / CLIR / IPWR: See WATT above.

    Your claims of hitting home runs with every MDB trade were impressive until I pulled the data. Your back-peddling remains impressive though.
    Aug 15, 2014. 06:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ClearSign Of Upside Potential [View article]
    Great WSJ article today on microcap fraud (Cynk and others, see my posting above). SEC is going after a large number of "repeat players" who are enablers in the game - networks of auditors, lawyers, bankers and stock promoters. Of particular interest are stocks that have huge runs and subsequent falls without news to substantiate it. Also of interest are auditors who deal exclusively with a handful of microcaps and fail to check basic facts, such as "whether people are who they say they are".

    http://on.wsj.com/1oBk22r
    http://bit.ly/1oBk2iE
    Aug 15, 2014. 03:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ClearSign Of Upside Potential [View article]
    Correction GGG - I've proven them liars, with data. Please check it and tell me where I'm wrong. I never said anyone was foolish (although I've been called an idiot among other things). And the drunk inference is entirely yours, a stretch you invented to give you something simple to attack with (other than data which you seem completely devoid of). Try submitting some research and adding to the discussion, maybe your comments won't get deleted.
    Aug 15, 2014. 12:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ClearSign Of Upside Potential [View article]
    While we're at it AI - I'm looking through the list of every single share sold in the WATT IPO. They are all institutions, except Michael Leabman (founder) and Gregory Brewer (Director). So it's absolutely impossible that you "got in at the IPO", which makes you a liar in 4 of 8 of your claimed trades. I highly doubt MDB allocates shares to non-insiders and non-institutions in their IPO's, especially those done through the Jobs Act registration loophole, but I'll look up the IPO ownership of RESN / CLIR / IPWR if you doubt me. So I've now caught you lying about 7 of your 8 trades with 15 minutes of research. At least you're consistent!
    Aug 14, 2014. 06:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ClearSign Of Upside Potential [View article]
    Great Scott man! Even your lies are sloppily researched.
    - The only time SCON has ever been below $2 was from 8/2013 - 11/2013, really incredible timing on your part. Since then, the highest intraday trade was $3.82 and it has only crossed $3.50 intraday on a handful of trades over an 8 day period. How did you exit over $4?
    - HEAR never IPO'd. It was spun from LRAD. Perhaps you mean the secondary on 11/12/13 at $14? Or the one on 4/24/14 at $10? The stock now sits below $7. Way to go player!
    - UNXL has been trading for 10 years, about 2520 trading days. It spent exactly 4 trading days below $5 in 2014, and 60 days below $5 in 2010. And you somehow managed to accumulate your position in that 3.5% window. Truly unbelievable.

    So 2 of your 7 claimed trades are outright lies and the third is highly unlikely. I certainly don't believe the other 4.

    Its pretty clear "why we get in the names that they/we do." They do it for the fees, obviously, and they could care less who ends up holding the bag. You do it to pump and dump stocks by lying in public forums.

    All that aside - you turned my question into an opportunity to brag / lie. Which MDB stocks do you CURRENTLY own that have substantial gains? I'm assuming you still own CLIR, WATT, RESN, HEAR and IPWR? Or did you just flip them out of your massive IPO allocation?
    Aug 14, 2014. 05:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ClearSign Of Upside Potential [View article]
    For those doubting that MDB stocks are massively manipulated, you need only look at the charts for the non-bankrupted ones that weren't IPO'd this year (WATT, RESN). Those being UNXL, HEAR, HRBR, MTEX and CLIR. All had massive runs mid-2013 and have cratered since: UNXL +183% from 1/1/13 to 4/26/13 peak and -82% from peak through today, HEAR +207% to 5/13/13 and -67% since, HRBR +129% to 8/13/13 peak and -72% since, MTEX +519% to 9/10/13 peak and -65% since. CLIR was also +123% to 5/9/13 and -30% since, with an additional 93% pop in the month of December during which time the only news was this very SA article. By comparison, the S&P / NASDAQ have followed consistent lines up since 1/1/13.

    Which brings us to "Always Incredulous", who says "I trust MDB... I've made lots of money because of them. Nothing you ever say can argue against my bank account's well being". Since you trust MDB, you must be a long-time holder who truly believes in the business models, right? Which non-CLIR MDB stocks do you currently own that are have substantial gains exactly? Or are you just a momentum day trader masquerading as a fundamental analyst?
    Aug 14, 2014. 01:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ClearSign Of Upside Potential [View article]
    My pleasure Willno. I'd like to also save the shorts in CLIR, so here's my pitch on why NOT to short it:

    Case study CYNK - a company with no revenues (like CLIR), no product (like CLIR) and one employee (vs. 13 for CLIR). The stock went from 0.06 in May to an intra-day peak of $21.95 on July 9th, to $0.50 today. At the peak, CYNK had a market cap of $6.4bn, more than US Steel. It peaked 3 weeks after a SeekingAlpha expose, 12 hours after Zerohedge joined the skeptics and 1 hour after bloombergTV reported it. Why? CYNK stock was controlled by insiders and a band of accomplices. They loaned the stock to short-sellers at a rate of up to 144% per year (vs. 25% per year for CLIR). And when the time was just right, they called the stock back from the brokers and forced the shorts to cover with no sellers. Thus, many shorts literally bankrupted (short at $1 and bought back at $22, lost 22x their investment plus the 144% vig).

    Point being, you can be absolutely right that an illiquid stock like CLIR is a fraud and still get smoked with unlimited downside. It's a terrible risk/reward. Two quotes to bear in mind:

    1) The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent
    2) He who sells what isn't his'n buys it back or goes to prison
    Aug 14, 2014. 11:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ClearSign Of Upside Potential [View article]
    Willno - welcome back. You've managed to avoid answering my one question - are Frenklach and Biljetina independent and if so, will they confirm that CLIR's technology is game changing. Since you've "consulted with and vetted the CLIR technology" with them, surely you know the answer off the top of your head.

    Is my research objective? Check any of it. I'm trying to check yours but you're stonewalling me. My motive? I think this stock is a fraud, and I would like the world to know it. If you had a chance to stop someone from sailing on the Titanic, would you do it? I'm not short, am not being paid, and have no "vendetta" other than seeing a fraud and having the brass to do something to stop it.

    And by the way, actual research doesn't take much time with experience. Especially in this case - it's amusingly easy. Perhaps you should spend less time getting drunk off the wine / kool-aid management feeds you and do some independent work. If you had, you wouldn't be on this board to begin with.
    Aug 13, 2014. 10:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ClearSign Of Upside Potential [View article]
    Which of my many "personal attacks" as you call them are baseless and false exactly? You've noticed perhaps that I actually research what I post.
    Aug 13, 2014. 07:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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