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Long term Trader as a Hobby. I short term trade options in the direction of expected EPS of next year, as they line up for reversals on the 30 min bars. Missed the 4/4/14 BBY rally of 12% with options by one day because BAC had better delta, but I still hit it in stocks. 4/7/14 long BAC options because of graphic support and eps next year is up.
Until 4 months before the FED starts hinting that it will stop printing $$, I'm long US stocks that are mispriced compared to next year's EPS. BAC, BBY, GOOG, PFE, QCOM, HLF, MMM, JNJ, WMT, LOW, VZ. Ok some are from Finland or Sweden, but also mispriced compared to next year's EPS.
My next long positions as of 4/7/13 are going to be Japanese Banks like MTU,
as they spiked last week and I'll buy them next week on a minor dip. Doubling the $$ supply over there = equity rally just like over here. Didn't Mitsubishi make airplanes in WW2, meaning they are snug with the gov over there? It could have changed and It's a different Mitsu, but I'm just saying, Free $$ for Mitsu regardless = rising EPS and price so buy, so I make $$ too. MTU is the best of 1 day of research of Japanese banks on US markets ADR, that is gaining EPS in the past 4 years, and so with a liquidity boost should therefore gain the most next year.
I'm short China because it's the only major country NOT depreciating right now 4/7/14, gov is actually slowing growht, and having a minor correction in it's stock/realestate/finance sector. Short only a few months, not permabear, ghost city is evidence extremist!!! Plus, less liquidity = less export gains for them.
I'm long gold because of $9trillion in projected World Bank liquidity; next year that's before BOJ decided to double it's $$ supply. 4/18/13 update: Got hit on the GLD crash. Got out the first day. Back in yesterday in GLD call options, because I've seen a 3 day bottom and expect price to be 145; between the old price line and the bottom. Buyers are 50% jewlery which is weakening from high price; my neighbor is a jewler by trade and sells titanium instead because gold costs. 40% buyers are Central Banks; weaker demand, but rising.
I'm long BItcoin, less than 1% of my capital, because of world liquidity increasing and limited supply of bitcoins. I was in $200 at $40 per bitcoin. Test out $100, because you will lose $$ entering and exiting the coin, just like a broker. And, you need to get your screen names right, or the cash is lost in the exchanges. Needless to say, I've visited SR for free since the gains!!! My max is going to be 2% of capital. By the way, I caught a gain from $140 to $160 on a recent $500 infusion. 4/18/13 update; the server, mt gox, crashed on the day I tried to exit at $190, and would not cancel my limit order. now i'm in at $90 for the long run. I believe the server will improve in the future, but for now I'm simply long over the months. $90 is the price of a bitcoin before it hit media, so for now that's should be it's base price.
I'm against Ackman by chance. As I found JCP in a stock screen for decreasing EPS next year, then HLF fits my screen for increasing EPS next year as well. Only after the news of both companies started coming out, did that increase my convictions. JCP seems to be a joke; CEO and major board members commuting in by jet, increasing prices to pretend to have sales, and still bleeding $$. HLF has Carl Ichan on board, and I'm betting that the US gov never investigates because it has not for so long. A short squeeze would push the price up rapidly where I would exit. Less than 1% of capital in both trades, so if I'm wrong by a vague horizontal day bar trend line I'll exit and blog about bitcoins.
Commodities, Developed International Markets, Gold, Options, Stocks - long, Stocks - short, Tech stocks
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