Preparing For Continued Market Weakness: SPXU For The Way Down, UPRO For The Way Up [View article]
Leveraged ETF's are not designed as "buy & hold" investments because they reset daily. These ETF's should be used primarily as a hedge, but in very volatile markets, as we are seeing now, can be a great tool for significant short term gains. This, of coarse, will only work if you know which way the market will move...
It's Not the News, It's the Reaction: Short-Term Disruption in Broad Markets [View article]
The market has been on a monster rally for months and the S & P is 12 points off it's high. You make it sound like things have been tough. Give me a break!!!
Four Financial Farces That Will End in Disaster [View article]
You can be a long term bear and still profit from market rallies just the same. I too believe that the sovereign debt picture is ugly and will probably end badly. It may take months, years or even longer, but, unless drastic change takes place, the path is unsustainable. However, I intend to make as much as I can for as long as I can. I see no reason to fight the momentum!!
Will the U.S. Stock Market Continue Following China's Lead? [View article]
The similar "decoupling" happened in mid-September this year. It lasted about 2 weeks and I remember reading a similar article then. If the Shanghai Composite continues it's decline, the S & P will follow suit. S & P profit growth is HIGHLY dependent on Asian economies and Asian economies are ALL dependent on China.
A more likely outcome, however, is that the Chinese stock market reverses it's recent decline and the S & P continues it's ascent.
Real Personal Savings Suggest Strong GDP, Less Unemployment in 2011 [View article]
Based on the chart above, a sharp rise in GDP over a relatively short period of time (as we've seen over the past year and a half) is much more indicative of future GDP than the savings rate. Nearly everytime GDP has risen sharply, it has subsequently pulled back. Debt and inflation control will be a serious drag on GDP this year (and next)...
The Effect of Unemployment Insurance on Unemployment [View article]
Your analysis of the benefits of extending unemployment payments is clearly short run. I would argue that the long term risks to the entitlement mentality that programs like this bring on far outweigh any short term gains in GDP or reduced unemployment rate. Any actions that create more government dependency will reduce the US' long productivity and competitiveness. Paying people to remain unemployed will not benefit anyone in the long run.
Note to Silver Shorts: Get Out of the Way [View article]
I can see your point and agree that silver did have catching up to do. But anytime something runs up so quickly profit taking becomes too attractive. I own physical silver and I believe that the long term price will gradually move up, but what has happened recently is unjustified. I look for silver to correct to the $22.00 to $25.00 range very soon.
Note to Silver Shorts: Get Out of the Way [View article]
Silver's move up has been too quick & will surely result in a significant correction. It's up 80 % since July!! Long term I can see opportunity, but I'd be very cautious near term...
The Real Reason We Don't Have Jobs in the U.S.? China [View article]
The China problem has no feasible solution. American's lifestyle is supported by goods produced inexpensively in China (& elsewhere). Unfortunately, these cheap goods come with a heavy price - American jobs. If we produce these goods at home, we must either do so at a reduced cost (i.e. substantially lower pay) or be willing to pay more (good luck selling that idea). Either way American's standard of living falls. Not an easy problem to resolve!!
Preparing For Continued Market Weakness: SPXU For The Way Down, UPRO For The Way Up [View article]
The Fed's Not Monetizing? Don't Be Fooled [View article]
January 2011: No Recession Redux [View article]
It's Not the News, It's the Reaction: Short-Term Disruption in Broad Markets [View article]
Are Signs of Gold Bubble Showing? [View article]
As S&P 500 Breaks to New Highs, Short Sellers Dropping Like Flies [View article]
Four Financial Farces That Will End in Disaster [View article]
Will the U.S. Stock Market Continue Following China's Lead? [View article]
A more likely outcome, however, is that the Chinese stock market reverses it's recent decline and the S & P continues it's ascent.
Real Personal Savings Suggest Strong GDP, Less Unemployment in 2011 [View article]
The Effect of Unemployment Insurance on Unemployment [View article]
Short-Term, High-Probability Mean-Reversion Indicator: Mr. Probability Leaning Towards a Short-Term Reprieve [View article]
Note to Silver Shorts: Get Out of the Way [View article]
Note to Silver Shorts: Get Out of the Way [View article]
The Real Reason We Don't Have Jobs in the U.S.? China [View article]
ADP Employment Report Good News? Not So Fast ... [View article]