As I said:
I discovered the Gospel in July 1979. It is worth trillions of economic dollars. It should be classified as "top secret" by the CIA. I should be awarded the Nobel Prize in economics.
A prior post.:
"John, the #'s (which represent AD), for the 3rd qtr. are 2x that of the 2nd qtr. And that's without extrapolation and assuming Vt remains constant (& Vt will rise). - 20 Jul 2016, 06:50 PM
Dr. Leland Pritchard (Ph.D, Economics, Chicago School -1933,MS, Statistics):
"You have a predictive device nobody has hit on yet" - 9/8/81
And “considering the distortions in the def. of M1a and the rapid increase in the currency component, the correlation of the time series is remarkable”
Today's BEA release: Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 3.5 percent in the third quarter of 2016 (table 1), according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 1.4 percent.
I am going to change the world.
- Michel de Nostredame
In Cambridge economist, Alfred Marshall's "motives" for holding cash balances, or in this case not holding cash balances, the EXPECTATION, of a rise in the prices of things will induce a decrease in the demand for money (increase in Vt). It deals with the uncertainty which affects economic behavior, it "bridges the gaps of transition periods".
Retired Financial Analyst with an investment plan derived from Charles D. Ellis' book "Winning The Loser's Game". My portfolio is invested in the global capitalization-weighted equity market through Vanguard tickers VTI, VEA, and VWO. Retirement spending is typically held to the dividends received from the portfolio.
April 2014Profitted lots and lost lots during the Dot .Com days
Invested in smaller Gold and Copper companies, and various other small companies
Never traded Gold ETFs until 2014.
Feel much safer investing in Gold ETF's than in one or two Gold Companies.
See huge potential in investing in Gold ETFs this year, with Gold bottoming this year.
Studied and Took courses in T.A. a decade ago. Just getting into EWI
Wished I knew 20 years ago what I know today about investing in the stock market.
Oct 2014 to March 2016 Learning lots form the excellent Day Trading Pros on AVI GILBERT's and now Ben's Forum. I am taking profits when ever I can, and stopped waiting for the Big Profit that may not come. LISTEN to Ben, AVI GILBERT, gelstretch, contrarian advisor they really knows about the trends in Gold.
During my career I have had different roles within various banks, covering various products, from FX to High Grade Bonds. I have always been passionate about markets and particularly on Macro trends. I am currently working in different role in another company and still in contact with the credit market business.
I have a degree in Math and Science from the University of Toronto, as well as a degree in education, also from U of T.
I have traded private equity for 38 years and have developed a proprietary Price Modelling System which has provided me with consistent profitable trading success.
In partnership with my computer scientist son, Aidan Gomez, we have automated this model using neural networks, and offer a Trade Alert service that lets subscribers replicate the trades we are involved in.
Former Chicago Mercantile Instructor and staff member of Chicago Board of Trade.Author of five books on Trading. Currently, trade for myself and offer computer trading and Spread trading courses in Chicago. Featured in Wall Street Journal. A strong Advocate of Spread and Pairs trading.
New book on Amazon.com
Predicted Dow would go to 19,100.
We went past that, but will return to 8815 on the Dow.
My field for 30 years has been consulting to corporations, and government on issues related to strategic planning, work design, change management, leadership development and coaching management teams to improve their decision making on critical issues. One of my strong interests is systems theory which I have studied extensively in terms of cybernetics, biology, anthropology, systems dynamics, socio-technical systems. In trading and investing systems thinking concepts can often be mapped across to this domain. For example one concept is at the extremes things turn into their opposites. Also true in the field of human emotions is that when things are just about to turn into their opposites - switch from a bullish to a bearish technical picture or a bearish to a bullish one people in the aggregate are firmly committed to the wrong point of view (the importance of tracking sentiment). The pull to join them in this perspective can be strong, so tools are required to warn one of when the picture is about to change. What kind of tools? Markets move in cycles - trading cycles - 8 -10 weeks, intermediate cycles 18-22 weeks on average, yearly cycles, and longer term cycles. When a trading/investment vehicle gets a certain percent above a 250 day MA risk increases, RSI's of various durations on 60 minute, daily and weekly charts can show positive or negative divergence near turning points. Elliot Wave and Fib retracements can help determine the significance of these other patterns.
Doing my best to learn from all of life's lessons, including in the area of investments. Worked in computer programming during a former life, and now enjoy the world of investments. Trade frequently, but also have some buy and hold forever investments. I don't short stocks or use hedges, prefer a portfolio of quality stocks and some dry powder.
Marc has more than thirty years of business ownership, investment, and financial management experience. In the beginning Radow was the founder of Class Travel, a global hospitality company and then with the Roxi Group, a pioneering manufacturing firm. From mid 2000’s Radow served as managing member of JAGR; investment and real estate development companies. From 2011 through the present, Radow served as trader responsible for all operations, investment services and client relations activities of JAGR Capital, an investment advisory firm and is currently the President of Veni Capital Directors, Inc., the Investment Advisor for the hedge fund the Vici Partners, LP.
More Info on Marc, visit: http://radow.net/ and to subscribe to his blog, Market Insight, directly visit: http://radow.net/subscriptions/
Williams Market Analytics, LLC is a quantitative research boutique offering insightful, actionable analysis of financial markets. The firm also runs a systematic allocation strategy using quantitative models. The strategy portfolio can be accessed by both individual investors as well as RIAs in the U.S. and Europe. The strategy description and 5-year performance record can be found at: http://www.williamsmarketanalytics.com/fund/
MACRO ECONOMIST with interest in P.M. & Miners. Wholeheartedly reject the inherently flawed & programmed to fail Fractional Reserve Banking System where $=Debt. I read Barrons' and IBD quotidian and am of the belief that b/c the FED has painted itself into a corner via nearly 7 years of ZIRP and ENDLESS QE, thus the Equities market is on the brink of collapse as banks have no incentive to lend (see $2.7Tn in EXCESS Reserves, which the FED pays interest to banks on over and above their required 10% ratios) and they will NEVER raise rates unless they intend to purposefully blow up the system. The Chapwood Institutes CPI measure, which is a REAL barometer of inflation that employs 500 of the most commonly bought items, concluded after a 5 year study from 2010 thru June of this year that REAL Inflation is at 9.9% YEAR OVER YEAR! They also found that since 2010, we've experienced YoY Depressions of 5%, which have culminated with a 22% Depression over the last 5 years! Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) are out the window! REAL Wages are down significantly since 2007, and there has been NO GROWTH in REVENUES since 2010. In fact, when I plotted REVENUE GROWTH for S&P from 2010-2015, it's actually negative. I then removed Auto Sales from the 5 year period and the graph looks like a 90degree angle, like Y= -X!!! This is because another asset bubble in Autos in brewing via NINJA loans circa 2006 whereby buyers can amortize the cost of a new $25,000 car for 8.5 years with 22.5% interest rates for $500 down and these securitized BLOCKS of car loans are now selling well, despite the fact that 35% of them are ABSOLUTELY GOING TO DEFAULT as nobody is going to pay $150K over 9 years to buy a $25K car! BTW, the marrow of our GNP, consumer spending, is manifestly not happening as Inventory levels of retail items currently sits at $136.7Bn and one of my favorite indicators, the Baltic Dry Index, which measures trade between countries, is frighteningly low, presaging a massive contraction of credit, which is destroying the veracity of all FIATS. China has an endgame scenario, and thanks to the 1,000 metric tons per month they got back via massive re-hypothecation AKA STEALING of others allocated Gold, they and Russia both have over 30,000 mTons, while we won't allow an audit of Ft Knox b/c it's simple. We have no gold and more importantly, we have no silver stockpiles! With the worst humanitarian crisis since WWII, I think we have a solid bottom under Au and Ag, and I expect Ag to outperform Au 5-6:1 over the next 5 years, which is not to say I don't think gold will be massively revalued to the upside as it is the speciously strong USD on the (DXY) which has caused oil, gold, silver, and platinoid metals to get annihilated further over the past 15 months. I strongly suggest buying Gold Mining Banks like First Mining Finance (FFGMF) or Brazil Resources (BRIZF) as they are buying 'in situ' gold for $7-$15/oz, depending on the grade of ore, and First Mining has a dream team of Managers including Eric Sprott, Rick Rule, Keith Neumeyer, Marin Katusa, and Doug Casey and buyers of this 32M share GOLD Bank include George Soros, Carl Icahn, Stanley Druckenmiller and Ray Dalio, and more Billionaires are pouring in, realizing the potential of First Mining Finance, which already has 21 mines and plans to get to ownership of over 40 in the next 6 weeks while prices remain risible! Brazil Resources is headed by CEO Amir Adnani, who Rick Rule absolutely loves and who has bought 9 PHENOMENAL Gold Mines in Brazil, all adjacent to roads, water and electricity, and most of which have superb metallurgy (g/t), PLUS Amir threw a freeby in the mix and added one of his most coveted Uranium assets, located in the Athabasca Basin of Canada, juxtapose one of Cameco's largest Uranium mines in for kicks. Rule owns 20% of BRIZF and he is also CEO of UEC-Uranium Energy Corp. Uranium prices, like Au and Ag prices MUST RISE to meet oncoming demand. There are currently 82 Nuclear Facilities being built on the planet, and with spot Uranium prices at $38 and break even point at $75, Fission Uranium (FCUUF), Uranerz (URZ), and (UEC) are smart very cheap plays, while Cameco (CCJ) is the Guerilla of Uranium investments. Currently, I like the VIX, a healthy mix of Majors like Goldcorp and Newmont, Mid-Majors like Alamos Gold, Kirkland Gold, Fresnillo Plc, Tahoe Resources, Silver Wheaton, First Majestic, Pan American Silver, Guyanna Goldfields, Klondex Mines, Semafo, Richland Gold, Alacer Gold, Pretium Resources, Seabridge Gold, etc. I know of about 40 others that are currently $2.50 and under, just ask b/c with just $..87, I can show you a miner that is one of my LT favorites which has massive FCF and trades at just 5.1X FCF!
Bsc,Msc,PhD candidate UC Berkeley
wrote first Fortran program in 67, start working as software engineer 71, Start own consulting company in 75. Expert in Software development, Executive in hi tech company listed on NYSE for over 10 years. VP and head of Engineering for software and hardware product development. GM of a business unit. Done merger and acquisition. Handles all financial and legal matters for own companies.
bought first stock in 73. Expert in data analysis. Expert in trading options. Combine technical and foundamental research and real time trading data.
Very conservitive with my investment with preservation of capital as most important for all funds needed for retirement but use options extensively. Has smaller trading accounts and trade daily and use weekly options most of the time. Has some very small accounts for experimental trading ideas. I believe in actual trading to learn and not just paper trading. I always try to trade with small amount of money on anything that I have not done before to see what the acture market is for that security.
My previous moniker was Trader Fool - it was changed after I published my first article in Seeking Alpha here.
I have been investing and trading in various stock markets for over 15 years, with actuarial and financial background of more than 20 years. I have a deep passion in financial markets especially on the risk management side. In 2014, I made the commitment to become a full-time, active investor and trader in the US Stock and Options market.
My investing and trading style is varied. A core part of me is a Value Investor, a relatively newer part is Dividend Growth Investor, and at heart, I'm also a trader. I frequently write Options (both Puts and Calls), and I trade Options (for leverage), when opportunity suits. Except for writing options, I'm frequent wrong as often as I'm right, and that's based on thousands of trades. My Swing Trading results are not great - win rate typically range 50% or so, win size just a little bit more than loss, but my recent AAPL trade was the best in recent memory. My Day Trade results are also not that great, but when the trend was strong, it was very good. Whenever I got greedy, Mr Market will eventually teach me an expensive lesson on the importance of position sizing. The trader part in me is not committed to being long, I take the short side too like the recent Gold trade before closing out. In general, I don't believe that any single style is superior/inferior to others, it is my strong belief that different market conditions favors different trading approaches. Whilst I love trading, I also enjoy the interaction here in Seeking Alpha and so favors a less intense form of trading, unless I feel there is a strong opportunity to make money :-) Despite the lower returns, a strong part of me believes that it is much easier, less volatile, more relaxing to be a Value Investor and a DGI investor, and over the long term (20-40 years from today), has the highest probability of being successful practically.
Allan Harris is an outspoken advocate for technical analysis via pattern recognition as the only effective methodology for making money trading the stock market. Allan has been involved in the markets for 40 years, starting as an options trader while attending law school in the late 1970's and ultimately becoming a professional trader after retiring from the practice of law in 1994. A prolific contributor to various stock market forums, including the Gilder Technology Forum in the 1990's, he started his own free stock market blog in 2004 that later evolved into AllanTrends.com, a subscription based trading service based upon a proprietary trend identification algorithm. Using a novel staggered profit taking strategy his service trades intermediate and short term trends in a basket of stocks and ETF's with outstanding trending characteristics.
David Nelson, CFA is the Chief Strategist of Belpointe Asset Management. The members of his firm, DC Nelson Asset Management LLC (DC Nelson), recently merged into Belpointe. At Belpointe he will continue to manage his Alpha Select Portfolio. He is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA), a designation issued solely by the CFA Institute (formerly the Association for Investment and Research or “AIMR”). Follow on Twitter @davidnelsoncfa Relevant Experience: David founded his own investment firm in October 2000. Prior to forming DC Nelson, David was a portfolio manager at Lehman Brothers’ New York City office, where from 1997-2000, he was responsible for managing the assets of high net worth clients and small institutions. Lehman approached David at Morgan Stanley Dean Witter where, from 1995-1997, he played an active role in management at their flagship New York City office. Previously, he was a Financial Consultant for Merrill Lynch. He is a frequent commentator and guest on Fox News, and Bloomberg TV where he discusses markets, politics and individual securities. David also frequently lectures on the financial markets, including several recent appearances before the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII). David’s investment career follows his well-publicized success in the entertainment industry where he performed with recording artists The Turtles, David Johansen and Nektar.
Roman Chuyan, President
Model Capital Management LLC is a tactical investment manager. As opposed to buy-and-hold strategies that follow the market's ups and downs, tactical management adjusts the asset mix in order to reduce the market downside, but to participate in the upside.
Model Capital manages assets via UMA platforms, as sub-advisor for other RIA and asset managers. We also offer our signals to advisors/managers under non-discretionary agreement.
An independent analyst and private investor. Based in Warsaw, Poland (Europe). Professional experience comprises about 20 years in a number of financial and industrial companies. Fan of the Austrian School of Economics.
Blog: Simple Digressions (daily analysis of the precious metals market; general investment issues; sometimes articles on demand of my readers).
Three decades of investment banking, research, sale, and trading experience. Began career as a municipal bonds trader at Lehman Brothers in 1982. Held investment banking and institutional sales and trading positions at KeyBanc, RBC and BNP Paribas. Private equity valuation consultant.
I am an investor for 20 years, in the school of hard knocks. Always learning from the market.
In order to invest successfully you must find the long term trend of the market. Then you need to find which are the strongest sectors, or industries in that trend. I use technical analysis to find the long term trend. Basically long term moving averages, and dead and golden crosses to find reversals. Once trend is found, using same technique to find strong stocks in strong sectors. I further use candle sticks to find entry and exit points for trades. I use fundamental analysis and information to study macro view.
Since I have no formal training in business or economics I feel inadequate to do fundamental analysis of individual stocks.
I am a student of the markets, and a voracious reader, to keep up to date. Reading books and articles on the internet.
The following books helped to firm up my education
1) The Great Wave by David Fischer
2) The Origins of Wealth by Eric Beinhocker
Profiting from Bull and Bear Markets by Stan Weinstein
The Fourth Turning by Stauss and Howe
People of influence
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A special strength of The Epoch Times is our coverage of China. Today the world is increasingly looking to China, as this troubled giant goes through tremendous changes. Business and political leaders, and also world citizens, want to understand better what is happening there. We are able to provide well-sourced stories that no one else has through the original reporting done by the Chinese-language edition of The Epoch Times.
An investor with circa 30 years of professional, managerial and financial experience, gathered through both private-individual activities as well as asset management type of roles.
I'm involved in running a leveraged fixed-income, absolute return, hedge fund that aims at providing its investors with double-digit returns, per annum. The fund runs a fast, frequent and furious trading strategy and it focuses on the very short term. Definitely not a Buy & Hold!
I'm also advising and consulting to private individuals, mostly HNWI that I had been serving through many years of working within the private banking, wealth management and asset management arenas. This activity focuses on the long run and it's mostly based on a Buy & Hold strategy.
Risk management is at the very core of our essence and while we normally take LONG-naked positions, we constantly hedge our positions, in order to protect the downside, that usually occurs at times when you least expect that to take place...
I cover all asset-classes though mostly focusing on cash cows and high dividend paying "machines" that may generate high (total) returns: Interest-sensitive, income-generating, instruments, e.g. Bonds, REITs, BDCs, Preferred Shares, MLPs, etc. combined with a variety of high-risk, growth and value stocks.
I believe and invest for the long run but I'm very minded of the short run too. While it's possible to make a massive-quick "kill", here and there, good things usually come in small packages; so do returns. Therefore, I (hope but) don't expect my investments to double in value over a short period of time. I do, however, aim at an annual double-digit returns on average, preferably on an absolute basis, i.e. regardless of markets' returns and directions.
Timing is Everything! While investors can't time the market, I believe that this applies only to the long term. In the short-term (a couple of months) one can and should pick the right moment and the right entry point, based on his subjective-personal preferences, risk aversion and goals. Long-term, strategy/macro, investment decisions can't be timed while short-term, implementation/micro, investment decision, can!
When it comes to investments and trading I believe that the most important virtues are healthy common sense, general wisdom, sufficient research, vast experience, strive for excellence, ongoing willingness to learn, minimum ego, maximum patience, ability to withstand (enormous) pressure/s, strict discipline and a lot of luck!...
I'm a retired active investor and have been a self directed investor since 1961. My professional career was in institutional investing with more than 15 years experience as a senior executive at two insurance companies and 15 years as a general partner in several private equity partnerships. From 1990 until 2003 I was the CEO of a franchisee of Budget Rent a Car.