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Yegor Perelygin

Yegor Perelygin
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  • The Future Of A Finnish Mobile Giant Called Nokia [View instapost]
    Wanted to add: right now, it's all about being able to maximize the value of their patent / licence / IP portfolio. Nokia has done a great job so far, and considering that they will distribute a dividend (a one-time dividend + maybe a regular one starting from 2014), an investment in NYSE:NOK stock is very competitively priced. $10 per share by mid-2014 is a more-than-fair valuation of the stock.
    Oct 25 07:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia's Ratings Downgrades Do Not Reflect NSN's Significant Value [View article]
    Agreed in this case. It seems like Nokia is being hammered by speculatory forces that need to create opportunities out of the blue. It makes no sense in a fundamental kind of way for one simple reason - NSN is a division that relies on large infrastructure -related contracts and doesn't deal with consumer mood swings and doesn't rely on consumer appeal to increase sales (telecom and infrastructure -related business are more focussed on quality, reputation, effectiveness and efficiency than on developing products that would be "hip" or popular with the consumer in terms of marketing). In hard times, business activity in the vein of NSN is what can save a company, considering the long-term nature of such activity.

    Factor in the very valuable patent portfolio and you easily surpass the current capitalization. I have been /LONG on Nokia for quite some time (for the last 7/8 months) and they have come a long way in terms of restructuring. Cash will go down - logical, but, you have to look at what the investment brings to the table in return, and that is a highly effective business with a long-term orientation (with a longer product/service cycle than other divisions).
    Aug 28 03:10 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia's Delta Deal Is Delicious, And Missed By The Market Thus Far [View article]
    Agreed... Nokia is quite an interesting case of when good news seem to have little effect on the share price. This is of course all until the moment when a powerhouse of an investor starts buying up shares. Nokia does have a very strong foundation and some of its key fundamentals are actually healthy. They did a good job at restructuring and they are moving forward. It's good that they kept NSN - in tough times, long-term infrastructure contracts can save a company's rearend. I think that Q3 and this year overall will be indicators of how Nokia will move into the future.
    Aug 27 10:15 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia's Delta Deal Is Delicious, And Missed By The Market Thus Far [View article]
    Indeed, this is a very important indicator that Nokia is still alive and kicking. I agree wholeheartedly that Nokia's strength lies in its deep integration with Microsoft and its core products. I have long-awaited the moment to see Nokia taking advantage of this factor, especially considering the fact that MS Windows and MS Office are still the dominant core software products in every business.

    In my own opinion, Nokia's key competitive advantages are in the Nokia's patent portfolio, the valuation of which is higher than Nokia's capitalization, Nokia's long-term telecom infrastructure -related contracts and Nokia's integration with Microsoft. Nokia has already been to the brink... The Lumia line has been a display of innovation and creativity, and although these phones and the OS have some flaws, overall they have been strong performers with all things considered.

    Leveraging the deeply-ingrained business integration of Windows and other Microsoft products can be one of the smartest strategic moves for Nokia. Considering the obvious marketing advantages (and Microsoft's generous contributions in that department), Nokia has a strong foundation at the moment. If Nokia can find a way to push itself further in mobile gaming (with the Xbox brand), then it can become more mass-appealing to the younger "more hip" consumer base. But, overall, it is the corporate world that can be a game winner for Nokia, especially that Blackberry is pretty much toast now. Going /LONG on Nokia...
    Aug 27 07:58 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia's Growth Is Bound To Come [View article]
    Nokia is a very good /BUY right now indeed. Their Devices&Services Division's IPR portfolio (Intellectual Property Rights) is exceptionally valuable and in a 10-year period can generate a hefty sum (higher than the current Nokia capitalization). At the same time, their Nokia Siemens Networks Division is also in a similar boat with a wealth of technologies and massive net sales that should be taking the stock higher in the next few years. In the further development of mobile infrastructure (something along the lines of 5G), Nokia is ideally positioned to generate strong returns from its patents.

    At the same time, Nokia can leverage its partnership with Microsoft to capitalize on the available marketing budget and communication tools. Functionality-wise, Nokia can annihilate Blackberry as a provider of corporate smartphone services - considering how effective Microsoft has been in building its cloud technologies and corporate mobile support. Cross-integration with the new Xbox One and TV functionality is also something for Nokia to work with.

    The amount of untapped potential in Nokia is actually quite impressive. Now that they sold off Vertu and heavy real-estate, they can get back to finishing up the restructuring process and continue hitting the BRIC markets with full speed. If they can increase sales in North America and Europe, Nokia is back as a winner. Their "mammoth" investments in R&D will pay off and keep them going forward.
    May 29 09:46 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Minutes from the BOJ's April 26 meeting show some board members believe the link between inflation expectations and actual inflation is tenuous, underscoring the notion that inflation will remain below the BOJ's official forecast of 1.9% in 2016. Additionally, some members noted the apparent contradiction in buying bonds to keep rates low while simultaneously promoting inflation (which would put upward pressure on yields). Some commentators have flagged this perceived inconsistency as a contributing factor to recent volatility in the market for Japanese government bonds (JGBL). [View news story]
    They don't really have a choice, but to keep going forward with more monetary easing - they will increase the QE scope if they need to. It's like sailing through dangerous waters, you just persevere.
    May 27 05:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sony (SNE) will be on the offensive in the TV market this year, according to President Kazuo Hirai. Despite nine straight years of operating losses within its TV business, the exec thinks technology has evolved to the point that synergies with other Sony businesses will help lift TV. [View news story]
    The future of Sony TVs depends on the following things (in my opinion):

    (1) Sony's ability to compete in the marketing war against the Korean behemoth represented by Samsung / LG; (2) Sony's ability to integrate cross-product Apps and options that would enhance and unify the consumer's experience; (3) Japan's economic situation and the FX rates of JPY to other currencies.

    I think that Sony Corp has all the knowledge and know-how needed to make good products, and their brand is solid enough. They need to reinvent what has worked for them in the past. They will really have to capitalize on the PlayStation 4 release, alongside the release of Sony Xperia Z and the new rumoured tablet - to push forward the Bravia brand. I believe it's doable.
    Jan 18 10:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ignore Sony At Your Own Risk [View article]
    I agree with your position on Sony. In fact I have a similar position on SNE that I outlined in my January 15th-16th article both here and in my own blog. I think that Sony Corp is a deal of the decade. My own reasoning was built on the P/S ratio, which, considering Sony's massive brand name and exposure, as well as past market share, is a very good indicator of Sony's undervalued status (especially when you compare it to the competition). It's nice to see people with a similar viewpoint (means "there is a method to this madness" to paraphrase Shakespeare).

    I think that what we saw with the recent James Bond "Skyfall" movie is a perfect illustrator of Sony's potential (the film made over 1 billion USD). If we consider the fact that a PlayStation 4 is on its way, and if we consider the fact that Sony has taken the #2 spot in Android smartphones, then we can assume that Sony is far from dead. The release of the Sony Xperia Z and a rumoured new tablet in Full HD will give Sony a much needed push in the mobile tech area.

    And last, but of course not least - Sony has to work out its issues with the Bravia line. I think that the mobile market has actually helped rekindle some interest in Sony TVs thanks to the "Bravia" co-branding strategy.

    As to the analysis of the Japanese Yen to USD exchange rate changes, that's a very good indicator for what is coming for many Japanese companies. I agree wholeheartedly. If the current Japanese government continues the stimulus, then we can see a return to export-driven growth in Japan in the near future.
    Jan 18 04:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment