gsterling

gsterling
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  • Why Consolidated Tomoka Should, And Likely Will, Be Sold  [View article]
    Ain't that the truth. $65 at this point while it isn't ideal for me, it will be hard to pass up as long as they can show they didn't pass over better offers.
    Feb 11, 2016. 03:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dynagas LNG Partners LP Benefits From Russian Connection  [View article]
    Fair enough. Just curious as to your opinion. Not trying to be nasty or anything. I own the bonds myself.
    Feb 11, 2016. 02:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dynagas LNG Partners LP Benefits From Russian Connection  [View article]
    What makes you think DLNG won't cut distributions then as well? Being able to drop down those ships seems pretty important for them to grow and they have long term contracts. Why not cut the dividend so they can save some money as well?
    Feb 11, 2016. 02:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dynagas LNG Partners LP Benefits From Russian Connection  [View article]
    So how do you believe they end up dropping down the ships if they are fully leveraged at this point and unable to borrow? Do you just expect conditions to get better by the time that point arrives or do they have other alternatives?

    Thanks.
    Feb 11, 2016. 02:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tecnoglass: Updated Outlook Even Better Than Expected  [View article]
    Full year fiscal results always takes longer to report. Usually about a month later.
    Feb 11, 2016. 12:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tecnoglass: Updated Outlook Even Better Than Expected  [View article]
    I doubt it. They seem to have gotten past those accounting issues. Earnings wouldn't be until later in March anyway.
    Feb 11, 2016. 12:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Medical Properties' Fundamentals Get Ignored Amid Macro Barrage  [View article]
    Why do you call MPW a high risk company?
    Feb 11, 2016. 09:49 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Medical Properties' Fundamentals Get Ignored Amid Macro Barrage  [View article]
    mbaietti - It's not only that. The guidance includes sales of about $500M worth of their properties by the first half of the year. So if they didn't sell those properties guidance would be just fine.
    Feb 11, 2016. 09:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Medical Properties' Fundamentals Get Ignored Amid Macro Barrage  [View article]
    zig - In my opinion they are diversified quite well with their recent acquisitions. Not only did they reduce exposure to each hospital group, but they also also expanded internationally into Germany (and some other minor holdings in Europe) which I think helps a lot.

    I am long some MPW but do have a couple of questions if Dane or someone could answer:

    - Why are acute care hospital groups like CYH and THC having so much trouble? It doesn't seem like MPW's hospitals are having the same problems.

    - I know MPW mostly does net leases and loans to the hospitals under their belt, but they do have some equity interest - in particular with Capella and Ernest. Do you know how these interests work? Is it like direct ownership where they can take a hit if the hospitals suffer a downturn?

    jpm1jr - I agree with you in general, but remember the last time they did an equity issuance was last August and people were not happy with the price (12.25 when the stock was trading in the 13's). The stock took a beating and since then has not gotten any respect. Basically no REIT at this point is going to issue equity due to depressed stock prices. That said I agree at this point they are being conservative and wise. Selling some properties at a nice gain (20-30% per the conf call) and deleveraging. Payout ratio will be under 65% and they should still be able to increase FFO just based on their long term leases which include yearly rent increases. In the meantime you have a safe dividend and if/when the opportunity comes they have the ability to make an acquisition, especially if the stock recovers.
    Feb 11, 2016. 08:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Consolidated Tomoka Should, And Likely Will, Be Sold  [View article]
    Well at least it wasn't down. The market has gone crazy and CTO is both a small cap and real estate. Two things that have not done well. It seems it's going to take more than good earnings or hiring a company to look into strategic alternatives to move the stock. My general feeling at this point is nothing to do but sit back and wait. I'm hoping by the annual meeting we'll be hearing something.

    BTW - Short position ending 1/29 finally popped up. Actually went down a little.

    Settlement Date Short Interest Avg Daily Share Volume Days To Cover
    1/29/2016 334,118 19,161 17.437399
    1/15/2016 376,156 33,587 11.199452
    12/31/2015 298,738 41,829 7.141887
    Feb 10, 2016. 08:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Consolidated Tomoka Should, And Likely Will, Be Sold  [View article]
    You know you comment way too much without saying anything useful. No one said that will 'right the company', not that there is anything wrong with the company anyway. They just need to focus on their main business instead of trying to run smaller side businesses. It's confusing to shareholders and not what they want to see. If Coke decided they were going to run a loan portfolio and start raising chickens people would not like that one bit. Same with CTO. It's not needed and not part of their core business, so get rid of it.
    Feb 10, 2016. 09:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Consolidated Tomoka Should, And Likely Will, Be Sold  [View article]
    Could also be part of the process if they sell the company if the buyer just wants the Daytona real estate and not all the other businesses (income properties, mineral rights, loan portfolio, investment portfolio). It does sound like they did listen to some of the shareholder complaints about getting rid of some of the non-core assets.
    Feb 10, 2016. 08:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Consolidated Tomoka Should, And Likely Will, Be Sold  [View article]
    Thanks Will. Maybe it is begrudgingly, but the fact that they even kept the potential sale in their at least gives me some comfort that CTO board hasn't thrown that idea out the window and that Deutsche must have included that as a possibility in their presentation. Most companies won't keep you updated through that process. That said they better not dilly dally for months before making an actual decision.

    It's very possible based on your previous comments about the mineral rights sale that the bidding process was either modified or scrapped and they are negotiating specific areas instead of the whole thing.

    They should definitely have given an update on the $10M share repurchase program and what the number of shares if any that they've repurchased.
    Feb 10, 2016. 08:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Time To Double Down On Omega Healthcare  [View article]
    Thanks. I understand the dividend growth history, but some of the other stocks on your list lease to tenants that seem to be in some troubled areas like Independent Living (which I fear might be subject to overbuilding) and Skilled Nursing Facilities. Even if they have grown dividends in the past that might quickly end if things get bad. MPW's tenants (mostly acute care and some rehab hospitals) don't seem to be suffering from the same issues based on the CC yesterday plus they are locked into very long term leases with rent increases. So I guess I'd rather have I stock paying 8%+ dividend with a very reasonable payout ratio compared to OHI's similar dividend level at a higher payout ratio even if they have a history of increasing dividends. I think MPW is playing things very conservatively right now which I like. They could easily raise the dividend, but considering the problems with equity issues in the REIT world now they seem to be playing it safe. I think OHI reports today AH so I guess we'll get a lot more clarity regarding their situation.

    The only thing I've been trying to dig into more is MPW's 'equity stake' into some, but not most of their tenants (which apparently is fairly common place with many medical REITS due to this RIDEA rule) and trying to figure out how that affects their exposure in case of problems. Not sure if that's something you might be able to address in future articles regarding these REITS.

    Regards,

    Gregg
    Feb 10, 2016. 08:41 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Time To Double Down On Omega Healthcare  [View article]
    I think people are a little confused about MPW guidance. I don't think it was disappointing at all. MPW announced they are selling about $500M worth of property (at 20-30% gains) which should close in the 1st half. Their FFO guidance without earnings from those properties in the 2nd half is 1.29-1.33 vs estimates of 1.33, so I think calling the outlook disappointing is a mistake. So now you have a company that is deleveraging has a very reasonable payout ratio (~65%) and pays an 8%+ dividend. I think Brad needs to move MPW up in his ranking.
    Feb 9, 2016. 10:11 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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