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gsterling

gsterling
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  • Extendicare: For Most, It's On To The Next One [View article]
    Earnings out last night: http://yhoo.it/1wrAcQV

    Everything looks good although I was hoping they'd repurchase shares at a quicker pace. Maybe they are waiting for the sale to go through first. Regardless with the Revera acquisition which should close in Q2 they should be at .50 AFFO and as they continue to buy back shares that number will go up. So they already have the dividend covered. Hopefully there is another acquisition in the works this year as well.
    Feb 26, 2015. 08:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will DHS Partially Shut Down On Or Before March 2 Due To Lack Of Funding?  [View instapost]
    No worries. Thanks.
    Feb 25, 2015. 07:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will DHS Partially Shut Down On Or Before March 2 Due To Lack Of Funding?  [View instapost]
    It certainly wouldn't be much of an economic effect although DHS employees certainly don't enjoy working for I.O.U.'s!

    In the past shutdowns federal employees who were furloughed ended up getting back pay anyway, but I've never experienced a partial shutdown like this before, so if the shutdown happens it will be interesting to see what Congress will do.

    The way things are going I'm thinking these shutdowns are going to start to become more routine.
    Feb 25, 2015. 07:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will DHS Partially Shut Down On Or Before March 2 Due To Lack Of Funding?  [View instapost]
    As a DHS employee I can tell you that 'non-essential' doesn't mean they are not needed. Operations do suffer when they are gone for any extended period of time.

    In additional I find your comment about TSA workers quite offensive. Every field has bad apples. I'm sure you wouldn't appreciate it if I said hedge fund managers are a bunch of crooks because of the numerous cases of pilfering, insider trading, an dirty dealings in your field.
    Feb 24, 2015. 10:40 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Letter To The RadiSys Board Of Directors [View article]
    Some open market purchases by directors yesterday:

    http://bit.ly/1CS9L3s
    http://bit.ly/1CS9Iop
    http://bit.ly/1CS9L3w
    Feb 20, 2015. 07:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cosan Ltd.: My Best Idea For 2015 [View article]
    I agree. In their investor presentation (which I thought was excellent) they discussed how underutilized rail is in Brazil compared to the US.
    Feb 13, 2015. 08:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Letter To The RadiSys Board Of Directors [View article]
    They've already restructured the hardware division to the point where it's plenty profitable. For 2015 operating income for hardware will be $13-$17M. As they explained on the conference call, part of the reason for the revenue drop in hardware this year is they are cutting out business that makes little to no margin. Yes, portions of their hardware business have been declining (like audio conferencing), but they made it clear it's not going to zero and is starting to level out. No fire sale is needed.
    Feb 13, 2015. 07:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Medical Properties Trust Presents 40% Upside As Discount Evaporates [View article]
    Good earnings report today. Bought some more when it dipped down this morning. Based on FFO projections for 2015 and potential dividend increases MPW seems like a good deal.

    "Based solely on the completed acquisitions, development commitments, and pending MEDIAN transactions, per share Normalized FFO is expected to grow to between approximately $1.21 and $1.27 on an annual run-rate basis. In addition, MPT expects to continue to invest in similarly accretive hospital real estate in 2015, and any impact to FFO is not included in the annual run rate provided herein."
    Feb 12, 2015. 11:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing In LeapFrog Enterprises Requires A Leap Of Faith [View article]
    No, I almost never short. I used to be long LF and actually did quite well before I sold after my thesis changed. I can't value LeapTV or LeapBand based on analysis because there is nothing to base it on. As far as charting I have never traded a stock based on technical in my life.

    Good luck.
    Feb 12, 2015. 10:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cosan Ltd.: My Best Idea For 2015 [View article]
    Regulator clears Cosan takeover of Brazil railway firm ALL: http://yhoo.it/16XMvZ2
    Feb 12, 2015. 09:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing In LeapFrog Enterprises Requires A Leap Of Faith [View article]
    They can say whatever they want about their mission statement. That does not make it true. I suggest you call investor relations and ask them how much of their revenue and profits come from the LeapPad and LeapPad accessories and software.

    Research also shows that eating fast food and not exercising is bad for you, but that doesn't stop most people either. I wouldn't want to bet on the company based on tiger moms and activist grandparents.

    Let's put it another way. Right now the company has $194M in cash and acct's receivable and approx. $56M in liabilities (accounts payable, accrued liabilities, and taxes). So let's say about $138M. They also have $77.8M in inventory which is a big increase from the same time last year. Let's just say for appraisal value I be nice and give it 75 cents on the dollar. That's $58M. So let's say the company at this point the company has $196M in assets. The problem is if you compare that to the number from last year they burned through about $80M. So if they don't somehow turn this around quickly and get things right this year things could get much worse. It doesn't matter how good their products are if they can't make money with them. So far they've done a poor job. And BTW if you look at the history of the company with the original Leappad many many years ago the same thing happened. They had a 'great learning product', it became a hit for a couple of years, sales declined rapidly, and basically the company struggled for years and years until the new iteration of the LeapPad came out.
    Feb 12, 2015. 08:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing In LeapFrog Enterprises Requires A Leap Of Faith [View article]
    Tap - LeapTV and LeapBand haven't proven anything yet. In my opinion I certainly wouldn't count on them being successful.

    As for the kid tablet market the dynamics have changed immensely over the last several years. Keep in mind that the LeapPad or VTech haven't even been around for that long (~5 years). When they came out with the LeapPad the iPad had pretty much just started to kick off the tablet market. iPad's were very expensive. LeapPads were cheaper. Now with the proliferation of Android tablets (which are usually sold at very thin margins) you can get one for no more than it costs to buy a LeapPad and the amount of free or very low cost applications. Anywhere I go I see kids on regular tablets playing games or watching movies. Management has acknowledged this as a problem. So basically after a couple of years of having a good run their LeapPad sales are in decline. VTECH is a diverse business with a $3.5B market cap. I've never looked, but I doubt they break out their sales and profit numbers for their tablets. For all I know they sell the stuff at 10% margin . I'm not saying that's the case, but my point is even if they are making $100k in profit on it they don't have to rush to get rid of it either.

    Leapfrog is another story. The whole company basically relies on that one product. Whereas VTECH has fixed G&A for the whole company, Leapfrog basically has G&A for LeapPad.

    The question is how are you coming up with a value for Leapfrog? Just saying they outsell VTech or they can still sell tablets doesn't make the company worth more than it is. How are their sales going to be in 3-4 years? What kind of profit margins will they have? How much will they need to sink into R&D?
    Feb 11, 2015. 02:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • OSHC Owners Forum [View instapost]
    Latest 13G filing from Mr. Demuth: http://bit.ly/1zvnStd.
    Feb 11, 2015. 08:24 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pro-Dex Shares Now Offer Investors The Same Turnaround Story As Before At A Greatly Reduced Valuation [View article]
    And I agree if it drops down around $2 or below I will be buying for sure.
    Feb 11, 2015. 08:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pro-Dex Shares Now Offer Investors The Same Turnaround Story As Before At A Greatly Reduced Valuation [View article]
    I emailed IR and did mention that cancelling the conference calls, especially the way they did, was a poor decision (they should have had a CC this time and announced on the call that they would not have any going further). In addition they added no management commentary at the top of the PR explaining to everyone how everything is progressing. Instead they force people to burrow through the 10Q to try to figure things out.

    I wouldn't be surprised if this is intentional to create a bit of a panic and enable them to buy shares (either individually or through the stock repurchase program). Definitely disappointing in the way they handled it, but I think we should see some good news in the next few months.
    Feb 11, 2015. 08:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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