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gsterling

gsterling
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  • North Korea's Kim Jong Un's absence continues [View news story]
    I see him in the crowd. He's next to Waldo.
    Oct 10, 2014. 09:33 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Important Events In Front Of Reading International Q2 Report [View article]
    Thanks for the update Andrew. I continue to remain long RDI and agree with you that it is still significantly undervalued. It might be up only 7% YTD, but considering I started buying it at around $5.60 last April the stock performance is nothing to sneeze at.

    As you mention RDI is a difficult company to analyze due to the fact that they have two distinct segments - movie theaters and real estate. While RDI considers these businesses complementary (movie theater cash flow funds real estate development) it makes it hard for most people to value the company by looking at traditional metrics. I own another stock, BBX, which I think suffers from the same problem.

    I think it may take a while for people to realize the 'full' value (although you never know what will wake people up). RDI won't be fully paid for Moonee Ponds until April 2015. They probably won't be paid in full for Burwood until 2017. Cinema 123 and Union Square redevelopment won't happen for a few years. That said I'm certainly holding on long term. To me the best thing they can do while we are waiting for sales and projects to be completed is continue to buy back stock at these prices.
    Aug 6, 2014. 08:17 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Det Norske: 200% Upside Potential After Game-Changing Acquisition [View article]
    It is quite possible his job restricts what he can invest in. Either way, if you don't like the fact that he doesn't own the stock, then don't buy the stock and don't read the article.
    Jun 17, 2014. 01:05 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BFC Financial: A Massively Undervalued Catalyst-Driven Equity [View article]
    I tend to find when people expect the worst, the worst has already come.
    Apr 25, 2014. 01:36 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • G. Willi-Food International, Ltd. News Creates A Buying Opportunity [View article]
    I'm not coming up with $19/share with my calculations, but I'm coming up with a lot more than $10/share.

    Willi Investments owns 58% of WILC. Emblaze is buying between 58% - 61.8% of Willi Investments. If all the shares are tendered they would be buying 61.8% of Willi Investments for US$81.6 million. That would value Willi Investments at around US$132 million. Since Willi Investments owns 58% of WILC that would value WILC around US$227.6 million which works out to $17.50 per share.

    William are we missing something?

    Thanks.
    Mar 6, 2014. 08:26 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's bonus time at RadioShack [View news story]
    Nothing like destroying a company and then getting paid more to not leave.
    Mar 5, 2014. 10:12 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm A Passive Investor (And You Should Be Too) [View article]
    Feel free to stop by and I'll show you my trading records and account balances.
    Feb 11, 2014. 02:17 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LeapFrog: My Best Small-Cap Idea For 2014 [View article]
    Just a couple of quick points.

    As Chris subtly makes the point in his post Leappad has a lot of competition from cheap tablets. I know plenty of people may argue that Leappad is a 'superior product' but many parents probably don't want to pay $10-25 per app. Just from my everyday observations I've seen a bunch of kids playing on regular tablets as a way for parents to keep them busy.

    I happen to be worried about LF's performance for Q4. If you had checked Leappad 2 on Amazon during the holiday shopping season last year they ranked near the top of all Toys & Games. Granted they have a couple more products, but I was not impressed by their rankings this time around. There has also been a lot more discounting.

    Granted this is not an expensive stock considering how much cash they have, but I'm not sure how their future looks considering Leappad hardware and software accounts for the vast majority of their sales.
    Jan 9, 2014. 10:22 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GCVRZ Forum Archive  [View instapost]
    I would imagine right now the FDA is nestled all snug in their beds, while visions of Alemtuzumab... err I mean sugar-plums dance in their heads.
    Dec 24, 2013. 11:45 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Sold Gramercy Property Trust [View article]
    I don't think Chris or most professionals would hold onto a stock based on the price they bought it for. Whether you have a loss or gain is irrelevant. It's about what you think the stock will do in the future.

    As an aside I never understand why people feel a need to say how many shares they sold and want to advertise how much money they have, but to each his own.
    Oct 21, 2013. 12:44 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Time To Short IMAX [View article]
    This will be my last post since you are a rather nasty person. I hope your call on IMAX is better than your call on Netflix last November.
    Oct 21, 2013. 12:27 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Time To Short IMAX [View article]
    There is a lot of misinformation and speculation here. Let me try to address at least some of your points:

    "If the same number are installed each year, that means system revenue will be flat from one year to the next. That's not YOY growth. Indeed, the chart shows revenue from this segment is erratic. The 2013 run-rate is for a 20% YOY decline."

    - First off IMAX has made it quite clear that installs are always backloaded towards the second half of the year so the run rate is meaningless. Yes revenue from installs will not increase. In fact as they sign more JV's revenue from installs may even decrease since IMAX puts most of the money up front in exchange for the revenue sharing later on.

    - Even worse, eventually the world will become saturated with IMAX theatres, which means IMAX must rely on lease renewals. Over time, I believe audiences will tire of paying a premium (for reasons discussed below), and there will not be a 100% renewal rate, cutting into this revenue stream.

    Eventually any growing company will mature. At the end of 2012 they had about 600 commercial theaters and based on their current projections they believe they can achieve 1700 theaters total. that number has increased over the years as they've found new markets to enter. That would mean about 9-10 years of installs at the current pace. Their JV contracts usually last about 10 years. In fact when Wanda signed their most recent deal with IMAX for 40 theaters with a potential for 120 more total they agreed to increase the JV deals for all new theaters built from 10 years to 12. Sounds like they are happy with IMAX.

    "Maintenance

    Gross revenue has been relatively stable, rising 10% annually. However, gross margin has fallen from the mid-40% range to the low-30% range. This segment is thus not a growth engine, either."

    Maintenance revenue will grow as the theater base grows. Maintenance is a constant source of revenue since all the IMAX equipment needs to be routinely maintained.

    "IMAX has no idea how many JV screens there will be. Today, the JV concept is spread over 50% of IMAX screens. What about the future? More? Less? It's unpredictable, and therefore, so is revenue."

    They will have more than they have today and the percentage of JV installations compared to sales lease installations has been growing every year.

    "IMAX is limited to specific genres. The only films that screen in IMAX are genre films: action, sci-fi, fantasy, and maybe horror. Even then, blowing a film up to IMAX size does not guarantee that viewers will pay extra. Not every release is an Avatar."

    So what? Does every release need to be Avatar? No... Last I checked Gravity has been a huge box office success for the last three weeks and has been a huge hit in IMAX.

    "IMAX has no control over content quality. Hollywood content is inconsistent and getting worse. Franchises are no guarantee of quality. For every Harry Potter (and there will be no more), there are five stinkers. Because of the dearth of fungible content, IMAX must take any film it can get on its screens. Worse, IMAX does not convert a terrible movie into a great one. If you pay a premium to see an IMAX film, and it stinks, you will be less likely to spend that premium in the future. I'm sure not paying extra to see the next Hobbit film."

    Actually IMAX DOES get to choose what movies go into it's theaters which enables them to show movies that they believe will be successful in IMAX. Since when was every movie successful? You make it like this is a new concept. People see movies every year and if it stinks that doesn't stop them from seeing more. Do I care if you personally are paying extra? Of course not. You even point out that you aren't the target demo.

    I could go on and on, but the rest of your article is silly too. Wage stagnation (I guess that explains why people are eating more Chipotle and less McDonald's), China's one child policy (they have 110 theaters for a population of 1 billion so I don't think they are too worried about saturation at this point), limited demographic (so you don't invest in retail ever?) etc.
    Oct 21, 2013. 11:17 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 401(k)s Don't Work, Or Do They? [View article]
    "Why we have this need to constantly complain about things just amazes me. I find the 401k at my job to be a really nice benefit and I fund it with every dollar I can."

    I think when things are unfair we have a right to complain. Trust me it makes a huge difference over time if you are paying 2.5% in expenses (like I did at one of my former jobs) compared to .025% like I do in my current position (for the federal gov't). If you are in that job for 20 years that adds up to a lot of money. So I don't think that's a matter of being 'distracted by the small stuff'. Most companies do not match either.

    If people never complained nothing would ever change.
    Oct 18, 2013. 12:51 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 401(k)s Don't Work, Or Do They? [View article]
    I think the whole 401K system is a mess. Some of the companies I worked for offered horrible options. The worst one I had to demand they add an S&P500 index. All the other funds they offered were well over 1% PLUS the company that managed the 401K had their own expenses tacked in. It made me sick. Even the S&P500 index they added was something like 0.80% which is pathetic. Then when I switched jobs I would sometimes have to wait many months before I was allowed to start contributing. At least I had jobs that offered 401K's at all. Why this is left up to the employer I have no idea.

    If it were up to me I'd scrap the whole 401K system and just let everyone invest 15K a year or something like that in an IRA. They can set something up to allow the employer to match up to a certain amount.

    I work for the Federal Gov't now and I can say they have some of the lowest pricest index funds out there. That's a beautiful thing.
    Oct 18, 2013. 09:44 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft pares gains as Street mulls post-Ballmer era [View news story]
    It's like being on the Titanic while it's sinking and cheering when they appoint a new captain.
    Aug 23, 2013. 12:13 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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