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Spamwich's  Instablog

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Specialty: Technical Analysis Name: Michael Payne, CEO of No Payne Roofing Inc. Objective: To share results of technical indications Experience: Relentless market participation since November 2011
My company:
No Payne Roofing Inc
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  • $GLD: Long Term Price Structure And Target

    I was looking for a break in support to confirm the downside in the M's, well... Here we have it. I can't really time the PM market as precisely as I can with the S&P, but I think that 1000 is possible within the next 30-60 days, considering the price structure and break of support...

    Nov 02 2:07 PM | Link | 2 Comments
  • $SLV Track Record Exposed! December - Current

    This first one is where i spotted a price structure and determined that the price would likely pop to $22 and then Drop

    (click to enlarge) =========================================

    This next one is after my upside target was hit on Feb 25 2014 and then I laid out my lower targets for $18, and eventually $15-$16 which was reached as of the last week of October 2014


    This next screen shot is the price structure I identified that warned of imminent downside on Feb 27 2014



    Here is the price of silver when it reached my target zone and I highlighted that a break of support would lead to the $9 region



    I would like to clarify that my bullish perspective on support was without much conviction , as you can clearly see that I've maintained a bearish bias while calling some of the bounces along the way. My buy zone was based on a technical support zone, discounting the descending triangle that would break to my initial target of $15-$16, and then ultimately to the $8-$10 region where I will consider a long entry.

    Nov 02 1:37 PM | Link | Comment!
  • $SPY: Recession Still Under Consideration

    Before I get into the forecast for November, I'd like to clarify some things...

    The month of October was a very humbling experience for me, after doing so well I had thought that I had the market all figured out, and that the test of the lower channel would surely provide me with profits based on all of the circumstances. Although my trading went very well initially after purchasing and at 1920 and selling twice in the 1970's , I was surprised by a 3rd test of the channel, I didn't clue into the fact that rarely has the S&P ever done such a thing, and then the unexpected happened... Although the channel had broken I refused to sell still expecting a large bounce , however by 1820 I was thinking to myself, even if we bounce, there is NO way this month is closing green. Well.. The unexpected happened, again ! Price closed green for the month leaving my jaw on the floor...

    For those who may be concerned, do not worry, my risk management was fair. Since I've been tracking S&P 500 faithfully 2 years ago, I've never experienced such volatility, nor looking back to even 2008 could I have reference to such an occasion, leaving me with the lesson; anything can happen, and that is why we never go all in on anything.

    My technical lessons are as follows, I ignored the MACD bear crosses on the Daily, Weekly, and Monthly , and I did not give heed to the channel break .

    My expectations for end of year are about 2100, we should see some sort of move into the 2050 range for November, and then close around the 2100 mark for December 31. Despite my bullish expectations I'd like to say that my recession expectations have not invalidated as of yet , I personally think that this last swing should be looked at as a warning shot, that channel has held flawlessly now for 5 years and was demolished within 2 weeks... As we now have 5 years of consecutive gains we need to become more skeptical with each year following a green close.

    Nov 01 9:26 PM | Link | Comment!
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