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"Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing" Warren Buffett I look and sift the world for such misplaced bets. When I occasionally find one, I first exploit it for profit. Then, I write about it for anyone else interested in such ideas. Twitter: @unemon1 Scribd:... More
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  • Hawaiian Holding (HA): Great Report By Prescience Funds! Here's Another Way Too Look At It ...

    ... and realize how deeply undervalued HA is ... especially when Compared to its peers!!

    Link to the Prescience Report: Link

    To starts ... a quick example to show you ... how HA has yet to profit from the strong bullish sentiment we have recently seen around Airlines Companies!

    1. The Post Recession Exuberance around Airlines Companies!!

    (click to enlarge)

    2. Let's have a look at the Price to sales Multiple Expansion!? One of my favorite metrics (for sound companies).

    (click to enlarge)

    (click to enlarge)

    As you can see … on a PS metric base … HA has a long way to go … before it catches up and reaches the valuations of its competitors!

    4. More important is that HA appears to be undervalued also on the basis of the other widely-used metrics!

    … if you combine … how the market if valuing other companies … with the profound DD offered today by Prescience Funds you will see why HA will easily be a $20+ stock later in the year (or early 2015).

    A very simple analysis … just to give you an Idea of what I mean …

    (click to enlarge)

    The price Target disclosed by Prescience Funds would be reached even if HA were to only converge to industry average valuations metrics … … (imagine what could an improving operative performance at HA … then do …. to the PPS).

    A price Target of $20 is very realistic … … conservative … I would say!

    Disclosure: I am long AH.

    Feb 18 12:24 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Upcoming (?) News From The Xoma – Novartis Partnership (C.p.) Could Cause An Unexpected 10%, 20% PPS Increase … Or More!

    How could the market forget ... about the XOMA Novartis Partnership? Read the doc ... to see that apparently it really forgot about that!!

    Disclosure: I am long XOMA, NVS.

    Feb 18 9:49 AM | Link | Comment!
  • PPHM: ... To Me ... The Announced Deal Is ... Just Noise

    Positive Implications:

    - Probably put an end to the ATM financing facility

    - Give the Co. more financial flexibility ... Should put its cash position in the 80-120m range

    - Looking at past Convertible Preferred deals arranged by MVL & Co. the 2-3 month effect on PPS is usually positive (however, at the end of the day ... it's all about the Company and about how it's managed. Modigliani would say ... "Financing? .... who cares").

    Negative Implications:

    - It could mean that PPHM was not able to find a partner willing to Fund the ongoing/upcoming Clinical trials

    - Possible Dilution (everything depends on the "Conversion Price")

    in similar Transactions ... Pricing has been announced within 5 business days from the first Announcement (or ... usually ... concurrently).

    We should know more in the coming days. A 20% pop would not surprise me. Unfortunately ... there is no guarantee .. and the pop could be short lived ... if not backed by some fundamental announcement by the Co ... regarding its core Business.

    An example of what could happen.

    ... if you look at ASTM today ... you will see that at EOD ... ... technology & fundamentals are the only things that matter over the long run.

    Disclosure: I am long PPHM.

    Tags: PPHM
    Feb 06 8:34 AM | Link | Comment!
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