hpski

34 Comments

    • Solar Wafer Prices On the Rise Again? [view article]
      Interesting article; what's your take on WFR? I don't own it, but is it just market malaise that accounts for the street's "YAWN" reaction to this announcement?

      MEMC and Tainergy Announce $3 Billion+ Solar Wafer Supply Contract
      8:02a ET July 10, 2008 (PR NewsWire)

      MEMC Electronic Materials, Inc. (NYSE: WFR) and Tainergy Tech Co., Ltd. of Taiwan announced today that they have executed a definitive agreement for MEMC to supply solar wafers to Tainergy.       Jul 11 06:34 PM
    • Dendreon's Provenge: Government Agencies Play Hide and Seek With Facts [view article]
      Let's pretend for awhile that there's no emotional component to the Provenge issue. FDA's approval of what I believe is a 'breakthrough" advance in the treatment of mCRC, Erbitux, was based upon the drug given as monotherapy + BSC (best supportive care) to EGFR-expressing patients who had failed prior Irinotecan & Oxaliplatin based therapy, vs BSC alone. Overall survival was increased by 34%. Median overall survival in months was 6.14 in the Erbitux group vs. 4.57 months in the BSC group. Erbitux combined with Irinotecan resulted in a median time to disease progression of 4.1 months vs. 1.5 months using Erbitux alone. The objective lesson here is that a lot of hard work and science goes into developing new technologies that provide an incremental benefit. Approval gets the drug on the street, giving doctors and their patients an additional tool, and some very important "intangibles"... e.g. greater "control" over their battle against the disease, and hope. Now Erbitux is being evaluated in head & neck, as well as NSCL cancer. Certainly it was easier to recruit study sites as well as patients to participate, since the drug was already approved. There are myriad other examples/precedents of oncology associated meds being approved on bare threads of data. I submit that a Federal Court would not allow the case cited above to proceed had, in addition to the COI issues, FDA's ruling on Provenge been even semi-consistent with previous (incremental) data driven decisions. There is definitely something hiding under a rock at FDA - the same FDA that allows drugs indicated for a specific condition, e.g. ERD due to neuropathy, peripheral vascular disease, to be marketed on TV as a recreational drug. The same FDA that allows Prilosec to go "OTC" when self treatment for occasional GERD with h2 antgonists like Zantac or generic Pepsid working as well, while NOT inhibiting protein absorption or causing increased gastrin dumping, which long term, increases colon cancer risk, which brings me right back Erbitux..... Jun 12 02:30 PM
    • Inhaled Insulin: One Giant Leap for MannKind [view article]
      What does your research tell you about the road blocks/speed bumps for inhaled insulin? What do the endos, pulmonologists, etc. think?

      Thanks in advance       Mar 11 01:10 PM
    • Can We Bury the Middle Class Income Myths? [view article]
      Mark, I'm begging you to stop flogging a dead horse, or more likely "something else" your very attached to that has about as much life left in it. Aside from omitting energy & food, somehow the data you posted left out the tremendous growth of two income households. Your agenda is obvious, but the "blue collar middle class" types who blithely followed Rove's lies into the voting booth, don't read this stuff. Tell it to the choir, like, maybe Doug Feith? Mar 11 01:01 PM
    • A Brief History of "Rogue Traders" [view article]
      Thanks for the info., but how does this effect the average individual investor, and what does this have to do with 'biotech?" Jan 28 11:48 AM
    • Time to Buy Molecular Diagnostics Company Cepheid [view article]
      What is your assessment of their management team? What is their excuse/rationale for being in the red? I noticed that their CEO doesn't own any stock, although my info. may be lagging a bit. Thanks in advance. Dec 05 05:49 PM
    • Bernanke: Economic Growth Won't Last [view article]
      Two things:

      1. Don't fight the Fed - look for oversold situations in great companies immersing themselves in global markets.
      2. Every day I get unsolicited mail from banks, mortgage companies, begging me to refinance, open a ELC, write teaser rate checks against CC accounts, car lease specials, etc. I haven't had "earned income" for 2 years. My take on this, merged with watching GE's CEO on Charlie Rose last night, is that there is still plenty of liquidity - the "credit crisis' is basically the ugly ducklings in the secondary mortgage security market being thrown out of the nest.       Nov 09 02:39 PM
    • Alseres Pharmaceuticals Undervalued in Conservative DCF Calculation [view article]
      Thank you for alerting the investment community about ALSE. As a biotech investor and pharma investment adviser, I've admittedly just scratched the surface of this company, but what I found over the previous 30 minutes, at least at first glance, are financing problems, e.g. the special meeting tomorrow to approve converting debt into stock for one of their investors who actually initiated a lawsuit against the company's previous incarnation a few years ago (later dropped). Then there was the 1:5 reverse split in 2/05, and currently there appears to be a relative dearth of neurologically qualified medical professionals in leadership/supportive positions. Their CEO, Mr. Savage, may be quite capable, and the best thing that's ever happened to this company, but he does not appear to have a track record of pharma development and the alliances of interest that "come with the territory". To what degree have you "kicked the tires" of this company? Thanks in advance.

      Disclosure: I have no position in ALSE, am long DNDN, EXEL, CEGE, AGEN, recommend ACAD under $15       Oct 29 07:18 PM
    • More on Pork, China and Smithfield Foods [view article]
      SFD's treatment of its animals, not to mention contracted farmers, has been dismal. The company's environmental impact is a legacy of well placed political donations & lobbying efforts designed to circumnavigate federal & local clean water regs. Of course their web site tells a charming story of their respect for the environment, which has more holes in it than Sonny Corleone at a toll plaza. Loss of animals from disease is usually due to extremely inhumane, cramped living conditions, expediting microbial transfer and random mutations, leading to more resistant strains. Add antibiotics to this, and you have the classic arms race, creating "superbugs". The last thing I would ever ingest would be something that says "Smithfield" on it - yeah, the pork may be tasty, but it's also a witches brew of hormones & antibiotics, not to mention the factory farm induced psychosis of the deceased pig. I agree that the China connection will have little impact on SFD's bottom line - however, when the dems take the WH in 08', SFD may have to invest more in its infrastructure to ameliorate the above ongoing situation, possibly reducing its margins. Sep 05 02:35 PM
    • Did Bernanke Really Just Suggest 'Creative Mortgages'? [view article]
      Human economic/homestead endeavors inevitably mimic the physical properties that gave birth to everything, e.g. clusters of galaxies, irregular distribution of dark matter, radioactive decay rates, etc. Why do massive stars end their relatively short lives with a supernova? So it is with our comparatively pathetic real estate deals - bubbles in selected speculative markets, e.g. California, Naples, Fl., parts of the NE corridor, blow up, scatter their remains over a wide expanse - think, Crab Nebula. When light from the Crab star's explosion reached earth in 1054 CE, about 6,000 years after the fact, it cast afternoon & evening shadows for two weeks, then for almost a year after, people thought the sun had gained a sister star, or had given birth to another sun. Meanwhile, in 2007, why should the "little guy" who was cajoled into borrowing money via "creative" speculating practices on the part of mortgage companies get burned because he is much closer to the Crab Nova, while the mortgage bankers watch the scene play out from the comfort of their stone & mortar castles on medieval earth? These companies don't want to be in, "the real estate business". Well, guess again - they are, and should share the downside risk with marginal borrowers in less affluent zip codes. Instead of foreclosing and writing down mortgages, interest should be lowered commensurate with borrower’s ability to pay and stay in their homes. That way the mortgage company still has a performing loan, albeit not high performing, and the "home owner" still has his abode and dignity. What do do about the “house flippers” in CA, FL etc? Let them eat cake. The economy survives, and Copernicus rests in peace. Aug 31 01:37 PM
    • The Wolf of Wall Street - Not So 'Hilarious' [view article]
      As usual, this is just the tip of the iceberg - there were many Stratton Oakmont clones, a crappy little brokerage called May Davis, being one of them. The hustlers dialing and grinding at this "firm" did not use their real names - I'm assuming this was the case at SO as well. If there's a former MD D&G'r who used to call himself, "Shawn English" reading this, you must at some point have gotten stressed out by having to look over your shoulder everywhere you went - now that's what I call, "rear view mirror" investing. I smelled this clown coming a mile away, but others didn't. Bottom line, caveat emptor, or Vare, legiones redde. Bottom line, let's hope Belfort is blackballed from all TV talk shows in order to handicap his book humping efforts, and that the only copies he sells are to assorted jail house libraries. Aug 29 01:28 PM
    • Bank of America - Last Man Standing [view article]
      Financial stocks, banking procedures are not my forte. But I understand a little about liquidity, and the investor malaise vis-a-vis investment banks theoretically having to sell stocks to cover bad loans, made more "urgent." based on falling real real estate valuations. Microcosmically, I just received an unsolicited email urging me to refinance, borrow "up to" $300,000. Out of morbid curiosity I filled out their form, but declined to plug in my SS# (I may be stupid, but I'm not crazy), then it came back at me with a pre-approval, WITHOUT using my SS#. Then I get a welcome email from Quicken with contact info and the name of my "loan adviser". Consider this - I invest for a living, have not generated a W-2 in two years. So where's all this $$ coming from? Yes my C-rating is excellent, but I wonder what % of this sub-prime situation is real, VS. nervous, jittery investors overreacting and not wanting to be last man standing in a pile of worthless stock certificates? Aug 29 01:06 PM
    • Expect Pressure on Myriad Genetics Following Trial News [view article]
      Notable: I agree with your assessment. AD is a slippery slope under the best of circumstances. Additionally, I understand the drugs' side effect profile has been underwhelming, but this is anecdotal, and remember these are brittle patients. Bottom line, expect MYGN's valuation to become more volatile the closer it gets to releasing the phase data. I actually think that statistically, Elan's 2nd generation AD vaccine, as well as DNDN's Provenge have a better chance of reaching the market. Disclosure: I am long DNDN, do not have positions in Elan or MYGN. I am a former Elan employee. Aug 27 01:26 PM
    • Is Antigenics a Good Buy Right Now? [view article]
      AGEN has not initiated a confirmatory RCC study, I assume because they, in concert with FDA, continue to follow the original phase 3 cohort. The only enrolling oncophage study at present is at USCF for GB. Aroplatin, a liposomal platinum is now looking for a phase 1 center to evaluate pharmacokinetics. Garo Armen, the CEO, took the reins of a troubled Elan in 2002 after it got caught in its own detritus (cooking the books, failed AD vaccine development), and scaled it back down to a more viable enterprise. So I think AGEN is in good hands - any short term upside to its valuation rests, IMO, on what Russia does with oncophage. Garo is of Armenian heritage - I heard he has good alliances of interest in eastern Europe. Can Russia and its neighbors afford this treatment? That's another question. I would like to see Fredric Cohen weigh in on this, since he posted an especially erudite analysis on the RCC phase 3 results that caused the stock to tank last year.

      Disclosure: I periodically own AGEN, CEGE, DNDN, am long EXEL       Aug 24 02:41 PM
    • Interest Rate Cut? Sleep it Off - Overall Things Look Good [view article]
      Interesting & thoughtful analysis. What percent of Americans actually have investments in exchange traded equities (including 401ks, pensions)? I'm not sure, but I'm betting it's quite a bit lower than people like us think. Wages have not risen (other than those of CEO's, who are grabbing as much as they can before the Yersinia Pestis infestation of the WH comes to a close in 09) nearly as precipitously as real estate values, even in stagnant markets. Do these non-stock market participants have savings accounts that amount to anything like a 6 month cushion to pay the mortgage if they loose their jobs? I think not. I know a 53 year old auto mechanic who liquidated his $25,000 401K to, "pay bills", e.g. 2 motorbikes, a Harley, revolving CC accounts, car payments, satellite TV. He makes his mortgage, but that's about it - no college fund for the kids, has no retirement other than SS benefits and a small future inheritance. The savings rate in this country is an embarrassment - how does society help, or force people to behave more responsibly and live within their means? One way would be for the gov't to set an example, which it is not. If it's OK for some jackass in Washington DC to spend the country into receivership to foreign creditors for future generations to pay down, it's OK for marginal, "regular folks", to live beyond their means as well. Instant gratification, "gotta have it", plays into the hands of the CC and mortgage companies, often sharing the same bed. I agree that lowering rates is a mistake, and when the Fed does, legislation should be enacted to tighten, REALLY tighten credit card holder requirements, and cap the usurious interest rates NATIONALLY - sorry Sioux City, S. Dakota - you're out, fiscal responsibility is in! Someone should raise this issue with the presidential candidates.

      Disclosure: I am a biotech investment specialist - incremental interest rate fluctuations pose less risk for me and my clients than phase 2 & 3 clinical trial outcomes, strategic alliances / buyouts and leadership quality.       Aug 23 09:20 PM
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