advocatusdiaboli13

Avoid the U.S. Until the Subprime Mess Really Hits the Fan

Good article, but I wouldn't buy into China on just a dip because that market needs a big correction to become sane again. Petro China exemplifies the dangerous over-hang in valuations there right now.

The October Employment Surprise: Is the Slippage Over?

The two comments are right on. Why the Labor Department continues to use such an astoundingly inaccurate model whose results border on fantasy can only be explained by political interference. It certainly defies common sense.

The October Employment Surprise: Is the Slippage Over?

The two comments are right on. Why the Labor Department continues to use such an astoundingly inaccurate model whose results border on fantasy can only be explained by political interference. It certainly defies common sense.

"Right Now Things Are Starting To Come Unglued"

Harry, you a being a bit cavalier about baking here. It isn't whether its is baked in, but how much of it did they bake in that matters most. What Barry is implying, and I agree with him, is the cake might be in the oven with Bear-Stearn's baked in, but there is lot more sub-prime ingredient on the board the market is ignoring and sooner or later they are going to have to bake that in too. That's why he thinks they need to look up the definition of contains. I think they really mean "covered" not "contained".

EMC CEO Tucci On What Went Wrong Last Quarter: 'There Is No Excuse' (EMC)

This doesn't add up. A product transition shouldn't require lowering expectations for the rest of the year. The backlog should be easy to deplete in one quarter. I simply cannot shed the feeling that there is more to the slip than Mr. Tucci is divulging. Specifically, if Intel is selling fewer chips, somebody is making fewer desktops and servers because fewer are buying them and it is likley those fewer are buying less storage and EMC software as well. In my opinion, that's the other "shoe" that needs to drop but I guess it won't until next quarter's results are provided.

Why is Disney's 'Pirates of the Caribbean' a Hit in a Long Tail Economy? (DIS)

I regard the hyperbole surrounding the long-tail theory as largely self-serving and I discount the phenomenon as a re-hash of facts that are well-known under a new name. Boiled down, long-tail theory is simply taking advantage of cheaper channels to consumers meaning that proportionally smaller market segments and demographics can reached at each quantum reduction in marketing, selling, delivery, and support costs. That's nothing new at all. But somehow, its as if the heavens opened up and graced us with a simple concept nonw of us ever thought of before. Not! Frankly all this hyperbole reminds me of Arthur Laffer and the now discredited Supply-side Economics. As Mr. Howe points out, the issues are jsut as much on the demand side in the end and cheap supply doesn't guarrantee sufficient demand. There are other factors involved.

Why Oil is Cheap at $75 a Barrel (ETF: USO)

While I don't like the conclusion personally, I cannot fault the logic and I draw the same conclusions. Mr. Laljee's timetable might be a bit aggressive though if China's bank succeed in cooling things of a bit. But prices will get there, perhaps more quickly than we'd like.

Et Tu, Apple? Options Backdating Hits Cupertino (AAPL)

I share your sentiment, but with one clarification: the term widespread implies across many grants and that would actually be better than if this nefarious and self-dealing practice were limited to just a few key executives. Why? Because they have the greatest fiduciary responsibilities to external shareholders and they are the leaders of the company. In additon, their small number of grants cover the majority of allocated options.

The Impending Housing Market 'Implosion' is Overblown

While the headline of the article is sensational, the gist of the article (and its only valid point) is more subdued: reacting to seasonal phenomena before seasonality and multi-period smoothing is taken into account is risky. True enough, but that doesn't mean sales aren't down and that the bubble is not imploding. In fact, all it means is that a definitive trend is not clear. Yet. Further, the author seems to urge ignoring exogenous variable as if they are distracting and immaterial. Perhaps in physical chemistry which is the author's background and where control volumes can be delineated and isolated, but not in economics. In economics, the broader economy has everything to do with housing and other consumer-led activities. Further, exogenous variables like the long-term inflation of energy prices and world events are important and have little if any seasonality. This report sounds more like paid-for info-tisement by the real state industry than factual analysis because it attacks one conclusion due to a paucity of data but does not disprove it and then postulates another conclusion without any proof of it at all.

Microsoft's Steve Ballmer Should Be Fired (MSFT)

dj,
Speaking of disruption: I think Google's on-line spreadsheet, something M$ has been promising and failing to deliver on, is disruptive innovation. It is compatible with Excel files and includes all the functions (even a few undocumentated ones) Excel has. No macros, but those jsut open up the user to viruses anyway. I think Google is over-priced but they are innovating and disrupting nonetheless. A lot more than M$ is that is for sure. Maybe GW Bush and Ballmer should trade places--let's spread incompetence around a little.

I agree with the author on Ballmer, but I also think the Xbox is a good investment for M$ so I disagree there. If they fall back on the OS and Office, they are doomed. Game consiles allow them to extend they proprietary model--which is all they know how to build as far as I can see. M$ cannot innovate and cannot stand competition--they lose every time--either in the market or in court. They need a monopoly or they'll die. Oh wait--they are dead-like as far as stock price already.