cohenbarryj

Ken Lewis's Call Option on Countrywide

The filing is 98 pages long but what we don't see and is a major point of contention at the regulatory agencies are the "schedules." These list (privately) all the various issues to the buyer. In this case what we don't know is what has CFC told BAC in these schedules that we don't know but assume would blow the deal. If it is in the schedule then MAC is tough. The one thing that gives me pause is that CFC must have signed-off audited books for the deal to close. Got to think the audit is going to be tough. Anyway the market sure doesn't believe the deal is happening at least not at the original purchase price. I think it goes through by the way since BAC has had a look at the apple twice know and there is nothing we can think about that BAC and their lawyers havn't thought about and more. Besides BAC share are no worse then their peers by any noticible amount post the deal.

Still Short Downey Financial Despite Jump on Earnings

An alternative method is to think about the liability side of the balance sheet when valuing the company. The vast majority of the company's funding base is CD's, FHLB borrowings and other debt. Pure "core" deposits are relative small as a % of the total. Put a low premium on CD's and FHLB 2% - 3%, 8% to 12% on deposits add tangible equity to the sum then subtract balance sheet adjustments for bad loans and the time value of money for the earnings carry cost associated with the non-cash earnings flows (that is tougher to do). This should get you intrinsic value.

Just a thought..

Top 15 Creditors to New Century

Why does an investor want to own a company whose senior leadership "manages by firing." They let loose 15,000 people so 1 or 2 guys can keep their jobs (Chuck Prince for example). Now I don't work for the company nor does any family or friends so this isn't spilled milk. They can't do a deal in the U.S. so they are forced to look at crap like ABN AMRO. The simple fact is they got a $1 bln in operating leverage by firing 15K people so they can buy time for the FED to cut rates so revenue improve. The leadership is inarticulate, inaccurate, a bit decitful, and certainly inaffectual.

Credit Fiasco Could Spread To Downey Financial

You guys sure you have the right website ?

Citibank: Benchmarking Mortgage and Subprime Risk

Everyone make this more difficult then it needs to be. 1) about 2/3 of their funding is "wholesale" in nature and with global yield curves flat to inverted, going to drag down revenue yields. So you have a call option on the Fed. 2) A significant portion of earnings is associated with the U.S. consumer lending operations, well we all know what is happening in those segments. Putting aside some funny accounting for the moment. 3) Less then effective sr. management only compounded by years of attrition in quality management positions. Why make it harder one ourselves. Own it when you have a CHANGE in FED policy, end of story......

Countrywide Financial: Mozilo Continues to Dump Shares

Is it 12 (b)-5 selling ? If so this has been going on for I believe more than three (3) years. Kinda the corporate version of a reverse DRIP program. Don't get me wrong, would like to see some cash purchase from all of these senior managers that tell investors how wonderful things are and how misunderstood the value of the company is (i.e. cheap). Maybe instead of options grants, Boards of Directors shoudl pay people in cash but make them buy shares in the open market with a certain percentage of the pay/bonus. This way we (shareholders) would see the 1) less dilution, 2) the real cost associated with ownership (compensation expense) and executives would be really tied to shares.

Time To Take A Closer Look at the NYSE Group

Just a few thoughts on the subject. First, NYX is not a monopoly like so many other exchanges, it face serious competition from a number of domestic platforms. Second, for all intensive purposes it is a one product exchange; cash U.S. equities. Third, while many speak about the fact that Reg NMS changes will substantially increase volumes do to statistical arbitrage, pricing will also be negatively effectived. The EuroNext deal is more of a marriage to save each other rather then the best deal (just my opinion). NYX did it to get diversified product (they saw the writting on the wall) and EuroNext did it so they can keep their JOBS. The question is what is all the hype is worth. What is the real earnings power of NYX (without EuroNext) what is it really trading at. For a company that promotes the most open and fair market in the world as a company they are far from that. Have you ever listened to a conference call? These guys don't want to tell you what the tax rate would be b/c it constitutes "foward looking statements." Give me a break.