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outcastsearcher

outcastsearcher
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  • Freeport-McMoRan: Big Risk? Big Reward! [View article]
    Contrarian: So you know we're about to have an event similar to the 2008-2009 global crash? That's what it would likely take to drop materials prices in half.

    I am a patient holder of FCX and many other materials and energy stocks as a long term inflation hedge, as I freely admit I can't forecast financial events with any accuracy in the short term.

    Since there are thousands of investment advisory letters out there and actively run funds too, which collectively do no better than the markets they forecast over time, once costs are considered -- shouldn't you make SOME kind of case for such a wild prediction?

    In the mean time, I'm quite happy collecting my 4%-ish dividend and selling the occasional OTM option on a small part of my FCX position while I wait for management to add value long term with moves like the 2007 Phelps Dodge acquisition.
    Apr 16 05:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Price Is Wrong [View article]
    Loon: One problem. From what I've read, it will take years to set up the infrastructure for the US to transport enough LNG to Europe to satisfy the NG demand. (Stop people from freezing in winter or a crushing rise in prices).

    I haven't read about how quickly Canada could get up to speed, but we're clearly talking about a LOT on NG here. It's one thing to accuse people of not wanting to be "bothered". OTOH, how would you like your family to face multiple winters without heat, or massive economic problems (like you lose your job) due to insufficient energy for businesss (to cite two examples of energy issues for Europe)?

    It's easy to say "group X ought to do thus and so". It's different when you ARE group X, and the real world imposes serious physical or economic limitations as consequences.
    Apr 15 06:29 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Did Herbalife Executives Conspire To Commit Mail Fraud? [View article]
    Because it makes so much sense to pay 3 to 4 times what the competitors charge for the same functonality? I smell Amway or Shaklee selling overpriced soap or vitamins.
    Apr 14 03:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Breakfast Wars And The Hidden Motivation Behind Giving Away Free Coffee [View article]
    Wallst001: If you haven't noticed, things like spelling, grammar, and even using the right word are becoming increasingly rare in recent years.

    It's probably partly poor education and partly laziness due to the informality of the internet.

    For example, someone like you might post "spell ... correct" instead of the proper "spell ... correctly" in their post, above. This could have been not bothering to proofread or lack of grammatical knowledge.

    I'll agree that advertising agencies should know better. Just as editors at top papers and magazines (who are responsible for the article titles) should know better -- or should catch the mistakes in their job as editors -- but now they often don't.

    Your assumption that this minor spelling glitch means YUM will "surely fail at breakfast" sounds like empty cheerleading for McDonald's to me. Given Taco Bell's success and growth over the years, I suspect it would be a big mistake to count them out.

    Disclosure: I tend to hold a small position in both MCD and YUM when they take big dips on bad news.
    Apr 1 02:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Hunt For Hidden Value: Gilead Gilded In Gold [View article]
    6228371: No question about it. When a high growth stock supports a lofty current P/E due to expectations of rapid earnings growth -- if things go wrong on the earnings, the stock will get hammered.

    Often young companies or companies with a very high earnings trajectory won't pay dividends. As they mature and relatively stable/mature earnings vs. high growth becomes the norm, then growing dividends usually replace very rapid growth as what investors look for in the stock. (BRK being an obvious exception).

    So this is all normal. Your point about diversifying is well taken, however. I cringe inwardly about the comments of "fans" of GILD "loading up" on the recent dip. This might work out well for them, but if they have a major proportion of their funds in one company like GILD, they could get crushed like a bug too, should significant bad news arise.

    Disclosure: I'm a patient long in GILD. I like their pipeline and their projected earnings growth over the next few to several years. I understand the risk and tend to sell a chunk of my position when the stock splits, to keep the share count "reasonable" for my portfolio. (This worked well for me in the past in companies like MSFT).
    Apr 1 12:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • James Altucher: Why The Stock Market Is A Sucker's Game Right Now (And What Stocks I Own) [View article]
    Kuala, if you're worth so much more than you're paid, why not get a better paying job? It doesn't sound all that complicated.

    It sounds to me like you're buying the propaganda of the "something for nothing" crowd.
    Mar 18 01:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arena's Belviq Sales To Hit $150 Million In 2014? [View article]
    Crazysight, I think you are hitting on an important point. The other aspect is that these meds are expensive. Unless medical insurance covers most of the cost, I don't see sales booming. Despite the government whining about fast food and passing arbitrarily stupid laws about soda consumption, I somehow don't see them paying for this in the near term (or forcing Obamacare insurance companies to, and then reimbursing them for losses).

    I'm a patient ARNA long for a long time, but I think the frequent gung-ho bullish representations of major profit growth in the relatively short term aren't realistic.
    Feb 28 05:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Just Can't Resist Buying Cheap Stock [View article]
    Good point about the risk. Value Line, which tends to do a good job on company fundamentals and financials, seems to agree.

    I think this is why ACAS is far from a slam dunk, and why the discount remains.

    Also, an actual steady dividend, demonstrating management confidence in ongoing cash flow, should be a great boon to investor confidence in ACAS. Too bad that seems to be nowhere in sight.

    Disclosure: I'm a long time holder from the deep discount days of the 2008-2009 recession, and continue to hold and gradually sell a little when the stock goes up.
    Feb 25 01:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Get Out Of Bitcoin Now [View article]
    FDIC insurance on bank accounts is a far cry from futures accounts. But don't let a fact like that impact the distortion field you want to create to mask the risk of Bitcoins.
    Feb 25 12:51 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Get Out Of Bitcoin Now [View article]
    So you claim you really understand ALL the math and algorithms behind it, you KNOW there is no back door for anyone to steal or manipulate the currency, and you KNOW that nothing can go wrong -- like another exchange having problems?

    Or that if you buy "another promising virtual currency" those issues won't exist?

    If the best minds in the public math world didn't know the NSA had shortcuts to compromise PGP type security -- I think you're seriously deluding yourself. Knowing the concept doesn't mean you fully "understand" it, BTW.
    Feb 25 12:49 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Get Out Of Bitcoin Now [View article]
    This is why government regulation would (in this case) be good. If your Bitcoins were protected, like your bank deposits by the FDIC (within the well documented limits) -- then this would be no problem.

    Given this risk, for people concerned about paper currencies, good old fashioned gold and silver coins in a safe place suddenly look a lot more sensible -- as they have for thousands of years.
    Feb 25 12:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Get Out Of Bitcoin Now [View article]
    So if a Bitcoin buyer can't tell which exchanges are scams and which are not, and which Bitcoins might suddenly become worthless, how is the whole scheme trustworthy?

    To me, if the system isn't resilient enough that if exchange "X" has a problem that the digital currency just trades on another exchange and no one loses anything -- I don't want my money anywhere NEAR that.

    Apparently the "total transparency" thing goes too far for investors as well as governments.

    But no, for Bitcoin fanboys, they'll say "I told you so" as though they know the future. Sure.
    Feb 25 12:41 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chevron: Compelling Long-Term Value [View article]
    If you don't need to be patient, then it's speculation, not investing.

    For example, if you want to buy TSLA and hope it continues to surge for the next few days and/or weeks, don't delude yourself that this is "investment".

    If you want to buy a portfolio of green energy/device stocks to hold the next 30 years while you wait (which might include TSLA), expecting the world to transform significantly to green energy over that timeframe, that's investment -- whether your strategy is profitable or not.
    Feb 24 01:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is BP The Best Petroleum Firm To Invest In? [View article]
    The main issue I have is the comparison on the performance metrics in the charts. There is a REASON the performance metrics for BP lag -- the GOM accident.

    Therefore, these types of comparisons aren't apples to apples, and thus have little meaning.
    Feb 18 02:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Timing Report: Bullish Sentiment Reaches Multi-Decade Highs [View article]
    Good points, P.F.
    If these newsletter writing, market timing, "gurus" had meaningful insight to share, they would simply follow their own insight, and significantly outperform the market. They wouldn't NEED to hawk $Xhundred a year newsletter subscriptions via their articles on sites such as this.
    So while interesting and sometimes containing correct guesses, the idea that these can meaningfully beat the market over time doesn't stand up to observation or principles like the Random Walk or the Nobel Prize winning Efficient Market Hypothesis.
    Oh, and clicking on his link to his newsletter above. It looks like he's been solidly bearish (and) wrong since at least 4/2013 (as long as the first page shows newsletter titles).
    Also, per the Dec 2013 title, I suppose I'm old-fashioned, but if a "guru" can't spell "Hibernate", and can't bother to proofread or correct the TITLE of his newsletter, what does this say about his writing?
    Feb 7 11:35 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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