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outcastsearcher

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  • Hep C Price War? Abbvie Vs. Gilead [View article]
    With Obamacare likely to be increasingly leaning on companies to "magically" make medicine cheaper as time goes forward, I wonder how this will impact expensive drug prices. (If in doubt, ponder the recent ACA-failure prompted request to have insurance companies provide policies with no assurance they'll get paid. This is how such clowns think). After all, in the minds of a liberal, why pay for a better treatment if you can have a cheap treatment for the masses you agreed to treat free or at a discount with other peoples' money?

    Disclosure: long both GILD and ABBV for the long term, despite increasing government interference in medicine.
    Dec 17, 2013. 11:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The WSJ Says Invest Your Emergency Cash, What?!? [View article]
    RWMostow: Thanks for making the same point I was going to make. You don't have to make zero percent if you do just a little work. Getting nearly 1% for a no-risk (FDIC insured) bank account in a low inflation environment (especially THIS environment) is at least a prudent way to invest one's emergency cash.

    (Mine's with American Express (no affiliation), with online convenience). I fund it and make withdrawals to my local bank household checking account via ACH (electronically). They have no balance limits, etc. The only drawback is they wait 6 business days for deposits to clear before you can have them back -- which I'd bet is pretty typical for banks in general). Relatives and friends who I've mentioned this alternative to (vs. basically zero yielding checking and savings) haven't had any complaints.

    More and more, I believe the WSJ talks the "book" of its advertisers. This includes the blatant trend of so many magazines, etc. advertising and trying to make it look like "an article". This naturally GREATLY diminishes the credibility of the publication doing this. Thus, this terrible advice from the WSJ (I followed the link the author provided), unfortunately, isn't all that surprising, at least to me.
    Dec 6, 2013. 10:52 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Market Karma: U.S. Shale Oil And OPEC [View article]
    Sounds about right. And pretty much flies in the face of the many people who keep saying "Inflation? What inflation?
    Dec 4, 2013. 05:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Demographics, Manias And The Short Case For Apple Explained [View article]
    fgrindle: Right. No Apple fanboy ever uses emotion when making the bullish case for Apple. Strong argument -- like unending exponential growth (NOT).
    Dec 3, 2013. 12:20 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Demographics, Manias And The Short Case For Apple Explained [View article]
    hereinNC: Ignoring limits to growth and acting like a company can have INFINITE growth is a classic mistake that has been well documented for at least half a century in the modern stock market. Much further back if you look at things like the Tulip Bulb mania.

    If you think AAPL is undervalued, fine. To act like its product growth can be anything remotely approaching infinity, however, is madness.
    Dec 3, 2013. 12:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Demographics, Manias And The Short Case For Apple Explained [View article]
    To be long options means you have bought them. (This is a more basic point than your nitpicking about saying long or holding).

    There are many options strategies, including calendar spreads, that involve being long options. To flatly state that experienced options traders don't go long options is like saying half the market doesn't exist.

    Are YOU new to options trading?

    Try reading a book on options and learning what you are talking about. THEN maybe you'll be in a position to intelligently criticize another options trader (or realize you have no business doing that in this case).
    Dec 3, 2013. 12:13 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Underestimate The U.S. Dollar [View article]
    reevenadin -- as has been answered thousands of times in articles like this all over the internet -- it is because so far, the VELOCITY of money has been very low, since the economy is so sick.

    There is plenty on this on credible internet sites - look it up.

    Unfortunately, like with all things related to "the dismal science" of economics, this is an unproven theory.

    Also unfortunately, lots of self serving "investment adviser" and newsletter writer types have insisted they could predict the time and magnitude of the inflation.

    Even if monetary velocity is actually the key -- I don't think even the Fed could time this. The danger is that if it comes, the resulting inflation could make the 70's look like a Sunday picnic.

    Given the games the government keeps playing with how it measures CPI and how it buys votes with unsustainable programs -- an inflation storm is a possibility not to be taken lightly, if you want a secure retirement.
    Nov 29, 2013. 12:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Underestimate The U.S. Dollar [View article]
    Mercenary: Wow, again. So if you are implying we should take US politicians at their WORD, given what has been going on for the last 60, 40, and especially 20 year time frames -- you must be delusional.

    Your property can now be stolen without even a TRIAL. All a cop has to do is plant some drugs in your house or car. (They call it "asset forfeiture" as the word stealing might actually upset people re this policy).

    Whether people can do things like own an apartment building is completely arbitrary. Doubt it? What do you think happened to the property values of apartment buildings in New York City once the rent control laws went into place.

    Obama is merely the lastest "leader" in an escalating trend of those who use lies for policy, and blame the other side when they get caught.

    I don't trust the Chinese leadership, but I sure as HELL don't trust our own leadership -- they don't deserve trust or respect.
    Nov 29, 2013. 12:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Underestimate The U.S. Dollar [View article]
    Mercenary: Wow. With spin like that, Yellen ought to be hiring you as her P.R. man for never-ending printing.

    You can make excuses all you want like (people would be stupid not to invest the currency) -- but the fact that the nominal value of every fiat currency is destroyed over time is significant.

    1). Politicians can destroy it on a whim or via stupidity -- and take people's life savings with it. (How does this square with property rights?)

    2). Especially after taxes, there is no assurance that investments will keep up, especially if bad economic policies are used (like endless printing). Again -- destruction of peoples' property rights is a real risk.
    Nov 29, 2013. 12:26 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Underestimate The U.S. Dollar [View article]
    statisticool: If currencies blow up due to debt, deriviatives, banking, shennanigans, or some combination of the above, I am confident people will be trading, say, gold and silver coins for things of value like food -- at least until the emergency passes and a "new dollar" (or whatever they call it) is issued.

    It's price has stayed relatively steady for thousands of years. EVERY fiat currency has blown up in the long run.

    (And no, I'm not a gold bug, but I do try to look at history somewhat objectively).
    Nov 29, 2013. 12:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Underestimate The U.S. Dollar [View article]
    Ponchovilla -- what anyone with the slightest knowledge about computing power knows if Moore's Law reflects the sliding price of computers of a given power level, at least since IBM introduced the PC in 1981, and Apple's computers were behaving that way in the late 70's when I checked.

    This, of course, is an aberration. In nominal dollars, the vast majority of US prices rise dramatically over time. In inflation adjusted dollars, many prices do fall due to technology improvements -- but that certainly doesn't nullify the cumulative erosion of the currency inflation causes.
    Nov 29, 2013. 12:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife Could Damn Well Be The Next MBIA [View article]
    I have no dog in this fight, but was curious when the fight erupted between Ackman and Icahn.

    So, I tried to find out about Herbalife products via the internet.

    It is suspicious to me how difficult it is to find meaningful information about the products, aside from the fine print documents available if you look hard enough.

    I did find some of the weight loss shakes on Amazon. They seemed to cost about 3 or 4 times what similar products from nutrition stores, or any drug store do. (That ALONE makes me wonder about sustainable long term true RETAIL sales volume).

    Aside from Herbalife marketing, I see no meaningful difference between them.

    Given what the history of past companies using the MLM model have been: those like Amway (overpriced soap and socks, anyone?) and Shaklee (overpriced vitamins that only the "distributors" buy -- I found a couple cases my mom had as a distributor when I was a KID after she died) -- it seems to me there is plenty of potential risk here.

    Have fun speculators -- I hope you have some clue about the true nature of what you are "investing" in.
    Nov 26, 2013. 03:29 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Position Sizing Based On Probability Of Returns Can Save Your Portfolio [View article]
    Sumflow: Although most people (especially the investment advisory industry) are in denial about it, since it is extremely difficult to MEANINGFULLY outperform the market over time -- how much you save, and which investment asset classes you invest in (portfolio allocation) are by far, the huge determinants of long term financial independence.

    For people who save EVERY paycheck until it hurts -- long term financial independence is a very real possibility.

    I agree with you that tduong11 is misguided. One of the most underappreciated aspects of index fund (or ETF) investing is precisely that it IS disciplined. It consistently, systematically, tracks a certain aspect of the market. That, a long term time horizon, and consistent dollar cost averaging are the kinds of long term probabilities that matter -- since the huge probabillity over multiple decades is (as history has proven time and time again) that you will make good money consistently investing in the broad stock market(s).
    Nov 20, 2013. 04:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Useless And Dangerous Mountain Of Money [View article]
    Viper74:

    Points 1 to 5 make sense to me, especially on the overall demographic trends. Immigration is a definite two-edged sword though. We should be looking to favor productive, educated immigrants who will be net producers to our society.

    Point 6 is a definitely mixed bag. Toyota would seem to be a huge Japanese company which is at the forefront of innovation on an ongoing long term basis -- despite recent Tesla Fanboy touts. Painting Japanese companies with one brush doesn't work. The way the current administration is punishing (and denigrating) economic success, and committing the U.S. to ever more social programs (and lowering the incentive to produce at the same time) doesn't speak well for future US innovation -- unless wiser minds are allowed to prevail in American politics.

    Point 7 is just BIZARRE to me. Do we live on different planets? If the whole world loves us so much, why do we spend so many $trillions on the military, and why so many long running wars in recent times? Does the Middle East not exist for you? Are Russia, North Korea, the Chinese, etc. 100% our allies at every turn in your world?

    Yes, Japan has some contention with China, but your view seems oddly tilted on this item.
    Nov 20, 2013. 04:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Yellen, Oil, Gas, Gold And Silver [View article]
    zorrba, for someone who clearly expresses a left wing opinion, maybe you should be a little careful about flinging the word "LYING" around, given various developments over the past year and Obama?

    Natural Gas is certainly clean burning compared to, say, coal. It appears to be a good bridge fuel as the world tries to gear up to go green with technologies like solar power. (I'm all for things like solar power -- but the amount of reliable solar and wind energy available is still TINY compared to what fossil fuels produce - like it or not).

    So while you and your ilk may hate any energy but pure "green" (even while you fly, drive, heat and cool your home, raise a family, and generally inflict a relatively large and growing energy footprint on the planet with hardly a thought) -- your name calling is just as unhelpful as the science denial the right is often involved in.
    Nov 20, 2013. 02:32 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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