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PassiveInvestorWins

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  • Herbalife Gains A Big Friend In Robert Chapman As Bullish Momentum Rises [View article]
    Herb Greenberg writes,

    In a phone conversation Thursday night, the vacationing Ackman told me , "We stand by everything we have said. We haven't covered a share. And we look forward to the company's rebuttal."

    http://bit.ly/Z56x9m

    He is such an arrogant man. Pride comes before the fall...
    Jan 7, 2013. 02:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividends: Still The Best All-Season Investment Strategy [View article]
    Be careful folks, past performance is not indicative of future results. Companies that will increase dividends in the future are likely to be good investments, but we still don't know which companies those will be. It is unlikely to be the one's that have done so historically, at least not all of them!

    Unlike a lot of industries, more research does not always lead to better outcomes in investing. So number crunching is a necessary first step, but make sure that it isn't the final step before you throw your hard earned money into a stock.

    In my view, entry price, going against widespread consensus (which is difficult to do), patience and a few big positions (held through thick and thin) is what makes a successful investor!
    Jan 6, 2013. 06:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • JPMorgan Chase: World's Best Universal Bank [View article]
    "The conclusion remains simple: buy JPMorgan Chase."

    I completely agree, with one minor change: replace the word buy with sell. The last ten times JPMorgan stock has hit $45, it has had a negative 3 month forward looking return!

    The market looks expensive to me, I'd stay out till there was a major market correction.
    Jan 6, 2013. 11:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why And How To Harvest Income In A Low-Yield World [View article]
    You bet Jack. A guy takes $50 from a cash register, they go to jail for a year. A company steals $50 million from the public's pockets, they get recognition and kudos for innovation!
    Jan 6, 2013. 11:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why And How To Harvest Income In A Low-Yield World [View article]
    One has to be very careful with income investing, as there are many many scams out there, even offered by some big reputable organizations.

    One of these complete scams is JPMorgan Income Builder - (JNBCX) Fund, which has a 0.95 correlation with S&P 500, but an initial upfront charge of 4.5% (HOLY SH*T) plus 0.8% ongoing management charges! There is no way an investor can do well after paying such ridiculous fees. Just look at it's performance compared to the S&P 500, all that underperformance comes from JPMorgan fees and a little probably from poor investment decisions. Funds like these compare to Herbalife in terms of scamming the American public!

    Someone (any volunteers from Seeking Alpha willing to do a good deed?) really needs to crack down on such unethical practices! But then again, Americans complain about fat cat bankers while investing in these kinds of funds! Go figure...what a scam.
    Jan 5, 2013. 11:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 2013 Picks Up Where 2012 Left Off [View article]
    This seems like pretty useless analysis. Just saying.
    Jan 3, 2013. 09:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ISM Manufacturing Back Above 50 [View article]
    Prices Paid holds the key...inflationary pressures should limit U.S. equity valuations and upside potential...EM and commodity related internationally focussed sectors are likely to do very well though!
    Jan 2, 2013. 10:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analyzing Ackman's Herbalife Pyramid Claim [View article]
    Ackman has set himself up big time by disclosing so much about his position to the public. Every hedge fund out there is buying a piece of this very profitable pyramid scheme so they can sell their shares to Ackman in the short squeeze of a lifetime at $150.

    Pride comes before the fall and this is the case for Ackman. Target price $0? Who says that??

    JCPenny may well look like a winner compared to Ackman's HLF position when it's all said and done.
    Jan 2, 2013. 09:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • After closing on Friday near 10-month lows, Apple (AAPL +3.1%) is rallying in the absence of major news. Likely helping: a weekend Barron's column that made a bull case for the stock while suggesting much of the "fast money" that had joined the bandwagon is now gone. Also, year-end sales made for tax purposes might now be letting up. [View news story]
    I have a feeling Apple will rally hard once all the bulls have been turned into bears! I do find comments like "All I can say is that I went to our local AT&T store yesterday to buy 2 I Phones and they were sold out" amusing. When did this become analysis or a reason to buy a stock?

    Even though I am long Apple, and I'd like to see it go higher, I hate to see such aggressive supporters of a stock. There are still too many bulls on Apple in my mind for it to make a sustained push higher. I have learnt that good investment results combine two patience with the matra: buy what the crowd dislikes (and sell what the crowd loves). If I am not extremely uncomfortable making an investment because it has a lot of uncertainty which the market has discounted (e.g. buying European financials in the summer of 2012), I find I usually overpay for it.

    Just my two cents...

    The market rarely rewards large swathes of impatient people (aggressive people tend also to be impatient in my experience).
    Dec 31, 2012. 05:16 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Berkshire Hathaway: Undervalued And Ready To Jump [View article]
    I don't think Berkshire is going to get you spectacular returns vs. the market simply because Warren Buffet has stated as much. Given the size of his company, he has to buy massive well established businesses that offer a reasonable return. So I think folks like Whitney Tilson are incorrect about how undervalued Berkshire is. Time will of course tell, but I don't see Berkshire outperforming (or under performing) the market significantly from here.

    Another comment about Tilson. Although I subscribe to value investing, I do not believe in the way he tries to derive the value of a business. Good investors find bargains without long winded calculations and there is a lot of inherent intangible skill involved in the process. Neither Ackman nor Tilson strike me as particularly skilled at investing (e.g. have you ever seen Buffet desperately defend one of his investments such as Ackman's recent JCPenny blunder, or the failure that Tilson has been over the last few years picking loser after loser?). I do think Einhorn has the potential to succeed Buffet as an all time great investor, but he has a lot of work to do yet to get there.
    Dec 31, 2012. 04:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analyzing Ackman's Herbalife Pyramid Claim [View article]
    As I suggested, Herbalife is up 25% since COB Dec 24. Thought I would boast given I stuck my neck out :)
    Dec 31, 2012. 01:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Caterpillar Is One Of The Best Investment Opportunities On The Dow [View article]
    One of the best run companies out there. And it is cheap. Great for a long term portfolio!
    Dec 30, 2012. 07:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The NAAIM Manager Sentiment survey soars to 88.1 - "literally off the charts bullish," says Schaeffer's Ryan Detrick, pronouncing himself concerned at so many professionals moved to one side of the boat. (longer-term chart[View news story]
    Thanks Galt, not sure if Investor Intelligence or OEX data is available for download? I thought it was subscription based, so I have never been able to analyze it to see if it is useful.
    Dec 30, 2012. 04:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The NAAIM Manager Sentiment survey soars to 88.1 - "literally off the charts bullish," says Schaeffer's Ryan Detrick, pronouncing himself concerned at so many professionals moved to one side of the boat. (longer-term chart[View news story]
    The NAAIM survey is pretty useless. AAII is much more useful at extremes.
    Dec 30, 2012. 05:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Investors Get A Lump Of Coal [View article]
    Thanks Notorious B.I.G.

    Two questions that I always think of when I see these charts is:

    1) What makes 50 days so special? We could get different results looking at 21 days, 63 days or 126 days, right?

    2) Even if a market is OB or OS, there is no reason it can not continue to perform well / badly and pull up / down the 50 day MA, thereby bringing it to a less OB / OS position, yet not having mean-reverted in the process. I think we would have observed this after major inflection points e.g. March 2009, and current with European financial markets.

    I have tried to reconcile these two points in my work, hence, I make the observation. Thank you for sharing though. I find these signals very useful for not buying or selling after extreme moves.
    Dec 29, 2012. 07:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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