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  • How Low Can Gold Go?  [View article]
    Great point you make. Inventories much more important than current production.
    Apr 19, 2013. 07:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Something Is Definitely Broken With The Market  [View article]
    Last year at the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting in Omaha, Warren Buffet said, paraphrasing, Amazon is a force to be reckoned with for all specialty retailers. (He went on to say we wouldn't go long Apple but certainly wouldn't short it...). In summary, Amazon has an expanding moat. At this market caps it could buy a shipping company to deal with the distribution power issue, if one was available which I don't know. Certainly the multiples are ridiculous (then again LNKD doubled from already ridiculous multiples). Then you have the macro selloffs. If possible I would get out after the Italian election possible selloff in late Feb.
    Also so far management has proven to be pretty good in the sense that it was the best survivor of e-retailing and has adapted to e-content, etc. So I believe investors are also trusting that management will be able to navigate the future years and be a survivor...I have learned a lot from you Paulo and I look forward to reading your writings and wish you the best in your trading.
    Jan 18, 2013. 05:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Something Is Definitely Broken With The Market  [View article]
    I think Amazon has a reasonable potential to go down during the next business cycle. High multiple stocks increase them even furhter during favorable macro but decrease substantially when there is a broad bear market. Look what happened in 2008-9. It will sell off either during the Italian or German elections, not to mention a black swan.
    Jan 15, 2013. 08:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment