mike0050blue

Starting the Geithner Resignation Pool

I don't own any bank stock directly but I know if these large banks fail then who will pay back the money to my pension fund that these banks borrowed from? Either way (protecting the banks or letting them fail) it's going to be very expensive. Doesn't the government guarantee a good chunk of pensions lost due to bankruptcy? Wouldn't they have to pony up if Citibank took a 1000 pension funds down with it? I think so. So who pays for that? Either way...theres no free lunch and quite possibly trying to save and reform these banks maybe the cheapest alternative. I guess maybe we would all really like to see them rot though!

First Call of a Double-Dip Recession: Setting Up a Market Bottom?

How about huge defaults in the credit card and commercial real estate markets? News that the $850 billion isn't nearly enough, Obama's stimulus plan is failing and that Congress is reluctant to spend anymore? Might these not sour the public confidence and usher in another round of stock and commodity sell-offs? Kind of like what we went through this past Fall.


On Jan 02 07:42 PM Fitz919 wrote:

> I don't see much logic behind the author's assertions. If their is
> to be a second dip, what will cause it? That's the question of the
> hour.
>
> We could make a list, but I won't. About 2 weeks ago I caught something,
> which was probably on PBS. I think the guy being interviewed was
> with the Mortgage Bankers Association...anyway he put up a chart
> showing a timeline showing roughly 4 years, with today right in the
> center. On either side of today were bar charts showing the number
> of mortgages which were expected to reset each month.
>
> For the two years prior to today the chart looked like a huge mountain
> with very broad shoulders. And for the two years which are still
> to come, the chart looked like a slightly taller mointain, maybe
> by 10% or so, and this mountain had shoulders which were even broader.
> What the chart was showing was primarily sub-prime mortgages which
> have already reset, a lull which is happening right now, and then
> what are primarily Alt-A, and Option Arms do to reset in greater
> volume than has already happened with the Sub-Prime. Simply put,
> this is the second dip.
>
> I don't believe our economy will have enough time to recover from
> the recession we are currently in before the second, more massive
> wave of resets hits. The Bankers and lenders who are holding these
> assets on their books know exactly what's coming. They know that
> only the strongest will survive. So many financial institutions are
> just barely holding on by their fingernails right now...even with
> the tarp money. I think the number is 26 banks failed in 2008. Some
> of those banks were huge. With the new rightdowns coming throughout
> 2009 and 2010, and no hope of being able to offer new shares to the
> public sucessfully, which had worked in early 2008 for many banks,
> but is impossible now. I'd expect to see somewhere between 300 and
> 1,000 banks fail over the next 2 years.
>
> And just a side note to all: If the big 3 Auto makers can't build
> and sell cars and trucks and make a profit doing so, they don't have
> a viable business model. The only way GM made any money in recent
> years, was by GMAC financing. By collecting interest over the term
> of the loans, they made up for the losses they generated by building
> the cars and trucks. Then they sold half of GMAC to Cerberus, which
> happens to own Chrysler. The only thing GM did which made them any
> money at all... and they sold half of it, to their competition.
>
>
> The solution: Variable Rate Mortgages are banned. Any mortgage may
> be refinanced at a fixed rate of 4% or less. Appraisers are no longer
> allowed any contact with lenders. They only work for buyers and sellers,
> which means they'll probably have to advertise their services. Previously
> written Variable Rate Mortgages will be considered to have been written
> fraudulently, and therefore those who defaulted will have their credit
> history esponged, and their FICO score repaired...and the lenders
> will for the most part get off scott free, or be required to write
> the new Fixed Rate Mortgages for a very small flat fee. Fannie and
> Freddie can go to the discount window and borrow as much as they
> want at 0.5%, and pass through the savings to every lender who wants
> to write the new mortgages. There will be no more slicing and dicing
> of mortgages. When mortgages are bought and sold, each mortgage will
> be distinguishable.
>
> Utopia right? Well, lets just make sure it happens this way.

Should We Really Bail Out the Big Three Automakers with $73.20 Per Hour Labor?

The highest paid autoworker (non-skilled) make $27 per hour. GM has a 2 tier wage system with all of the new hires making $13 per hour and they pick up a goo portion of insurance costs. Within a few years all the $27 employees will have been retired anyhow. The union is to get $7 billion dollar payment fro GM to manage their own legacy costs. So some things have changed in last contract and it IS NOT business as usual at GM. The workers and management all realize the problems but the workers have already given up a great deal and now they want the top brass to take a hit in employment and compensation, GM could start by naming a new CEO. Wagner has not done a good job and has not demonstrated an ability to lead the company out of this mess.


On Nov 10 10:37 AM IXLR8 wrote:

>
>
> If this guy has a PhD, then I am Einstein.
>
> The $73 is NOT the employee's income, it is the cost to the Company
> for each hourly employee. This cost includes wages, employment taxes,
> benefits, AND legacy costs--health care and pensions for up to 1
> million people.
>
> Now, if all the posters here wish to kill the pensions for the retirees,
> fine. The PBGP is already underfunded by about $50 billion, so another
> taxpayer funded bail out for the PBGP will be required.
>
> Medicare is in crisis due to chronic underfunding. If these 1 million
> people migrate to Medicare, another taxpayer funded bail out will
> be required.
>
> It's OK, though. Niot to worry. The Messiah will fix it by taxing
> the rich.
>
> .

Should We Really Bail Out the Big Three Automakers with $73.20 Per Hour Labor?

The highest paid autoworker (non-skilled) make $27 per hour. GM has a 2 tier wage system with all of the new hires making $13 per hour and they pick up a goo portion of insurance costs. Within a few years all the $27 employees will have been retired anyhow. The union is to get $7 billion dollar payment fro GM to manage their own legacy costs. So some things have changed in last contract and it IS NOT business as usual at GM. The workers and management all realize the problems but the workers have already given up a great deal and now they want the top brass to take a hit in employment and compensation, GM could start by naming a new CEO. Wagner has not done a good job and has not demonstrated an ability to lead the company out of this mess.


On Nov 10 10:37 AM IXLR8 wrote:

>
>
> If this guy has a PhD, then I am Einstein.
>
> The $73 is NOT the employee's income, it is the cost to the Company
> for each hourly employee. This cost includes wages, employment taxes,
> benefits, AND legacy costs--health care and pensions for up to 1
> million people.
>
> Now, if all the posters here wish to kill the pensions for the retirees,
> fine. The PBGP is already underfunded by about $50 billion, so another
> taxpayer funded bail out for the PBGP will be required.
>
> Medicare is in crisis due to chronic underfunding. If these 1 million
> people migrate to Medicare, another taxpayer funded bail out will
> be required.
>
> It's OK, though. Niot to worry. The Messiah will fix it by taxing
> the rich.
>
> .

Should We Really Bail Out the Big Three Automakers with $73.20 Per Hour Labor?

The auto unions will be willling to negotiate on any bailout terms with uncle sam. The biggest item will be elimination of the "job bank" where the automakers have to pay people not to work. Also, you'll see some of the old timers take large pay cuts and benefit reductions, The government does not want to see the automotive fail because it means a loss of 3 million jobs in the first year alone! Imagine the number of foreclosures just waiting to happen. Even the US government doesnt have enough money to stop the fallout from that one. The 3 million lost jobs would turn quickly into 5 or 6 million including the jobs of many of those posting on this site to 'let em fail!". It just isn't a smart thing to do when it can be avoided.I don't think people really understand the consequences of a failed industry as large as automotive. It's not just those greedy lineworkers you refer to but the steel industry, the chemical companies, paints, plastics, machine builders and on and on who'll fail and this will weave it's way through our economy and this recession will become a depression. And I dont work for the big 3 autos. I work for a supplier and am paid a meager wage by comparison. If Obama stands firm on the negotiations with the UAW the best scenario will be played out.

Decline is on the Horizon: Why Even The Fed Can’t Save Us Now

You dont have to be an Einstein or rocket scientist to know there is trouble brewing on the horizon.

Amgen Shares Continue To Plummet

I have owned this stock since 1998 and am getting nowhere with it. AMGN may be a good company but it sure is a lousy investment. No dividends...no nothing! A complete waste of my hard earned money. Everytime it has gone up a little my Smith-Barney broker tells me to hold on because its going up but it falls like a rock. Is Smith-Barney in bed with these guys or what???