While RBC and Wells Fargo talk up Apple's (AAPL +2.9%) Chinese sales, Wedge Partners and Merrill try to soothe concerns about iPhone order cuts (I, II). Wedge claims Apple has raised its FQ2 iPhone 5 production forecast by 10%-15% from conservative levels. Merrill suggests order cuts talk largely relates to displays, and that checks with other suppliers indicate only a seasonal drop. Still, the firm is lowering its FY13 iPhone forecast to 162M units from 170.5M, citing "a tepid US/Europe consumer and aggressive promotions [presumably for rival products] at US retailers." [View news story]
The whole discussion is irrelevant to someone who makes a living doing securities analysis. So don't try to take any of the above reasoning to the bank.
How Apple's Current Price Is Justified [View article]
Do the same analysis retrospectively on the whole fortune 500 history and you will have a reality check on historical stock valuation. And 24 percent is the correct discount rate.
Over 2M iPhone 5 units have been sold thus far in China, Apple (AAPL) boasts. China Unicom's (CHU) healthy pre-order activity probably had a lot to do with this figure. Sparse crowds for the Friday launch stoked fears initial sales were light, but weather and pre-ordering requirements seem to have played a role. For reference, Apple announced in September over 5M iPhone 5 units had been sold 3 days after the device went on sale in the U.S., Japan, and 7 other locales. (PR) [View news story]
I remain short aapl and would have thought 3.5 million by now in China?????????
More on Apple: Shares could be pressured by a downgrade to Neutral from Citi. The firm says checks indicate Apple has cut its March quarter iPhone 5 orders following a 45%-50% increase in monthly output from October to December. UBS recently said checks suggested the iPhone 5's build rate would fall sharply in the March quarter, while Jefferies claimed iPhone component suppliers saw big order cuts last week. Citi, which started Apple at Buy on Nov. 26, also thinks Samsung is doing very well. Update: Morgan Stanley responds by pointing to encouraging U.S. iPhone/iPad survey data. But a gap has opened up between U.S. and foreign iPhone share trends. [View news story]
You sound like Howard Dean when he was trying for the Democratic nomination.
More on Apple: Shares could be pressured by a downgrade to Neutral from Citi. The firm says checks indicate Apple has cut its March quarter iPhone 5 orders following a 45%-50% increase in monthly output from October to December. UBS recently said checks suggested the iPhone 5's build rate would fall sharply in the March quarter, while Jefferies claimed iPhone component suppliers saw big order cuts last week. Citi, which started Apple at Buy on Nov. 26, also thinks Samsung is doing very well. Update: Morgan Stanley responds by pointing to encouraging U.S. iPhone/iPad survey data. But a gap has opened up between U.S. and foreign iPhone share trends. [View news story]
This quarter is meaningless to aapl valuation. That is clear.
More on Apple: Shares could be pressured by a downgrade to Neutral from Citi. The firm says checks indicate Apple has cut its March quarter iPhone 5 orders following a 45%-50% increase in monthly output from October to December. UBS recently said checks suggested the iPhone 5's build rate would fall sharply in the March quarter, while Jefferies claimed iPhone component suppliers saw big order cuts last week. Citi, which started Apple at Buy on Nov. 26, also thinks Samsung is doing very well. Update: Morgan Stanley responds by pointing to encouraging U.S. iPhone/iPad survey data. But a gap has opened up between U.S. and foreign iPhone share trends. [View news story]
The guy to tell you where aapl is going is Robert Prechter.
A downbeat note from Macquarie's Daniel Chang could be contributing to today's Apple (AAPL -2.1%) selloff. Chang, who covers Taiwanese names and is downgrading Foxconn (HNHAF.PK) to Neutral, has lowered his FQ1 (Dec. quarter) iPhone sales forecast to 44M from 48M, and his FQ2 forecast to 26M from 28M. Gene Munster, however, is his usual upbeat self: he notes Piper's latest survey of potential U.S. smartphone buyers found 53.3% thinking of getting an iPhone 5; an October survey reported 54.9%. [View news story]
You can do that for a spectrum of growth rates and risk discount rates, and then apply subjective probabilities to each cell and generate an enterprise value, especially if you are a physicist. But you are missing the probability of enterprise failure, which is higher that most people think, thanks to Job's successor.
More on UBS's Apple (AAPL -2.9%) target cut: Analyst Steve Milunovich hasn't changed his FQ1 iPhone forecast much, but has lowered his estimates for each of the next 3 quarters by 5M. He claims Supply chain checks indicate the iPhone build rate will fall to 25M in the March quarter (his sales estimate for the quarter is still at 40M); that some Chinese sources don't expect the iPhone 5 to do as well as the 4S; and (like others) that the iPad Mini is cannibalizing its bigger peer. On a more positive note, he thinks China Mobile could start selling the iPhone in a year. (Macquarie) [View news story]
It is common knowledge among tech. analysts that cycles will shorten and margins will evaporate rapidly, for anything aapl makes.
A downbeat note from Macquarie's Daniel Chang could be contributing to today's Apple (AAPL -2.1%) selloff. Chang, who covers Taiwanese names and is downgrading Foxconn (HNHAF.PK) to Neutral, has lowered his FQ1 (Dec. quarter) iPhone sales forecast to 44M from 48M, and his FQ2 forecast to 26M from 28M. Gene Munster, however, is his usual upbeat self: he notes Piper's latest survey of potential U.S. smartphone buyers found 53.3% thinking of getting an iPhone 5; an October survey reported 54.9%. [View news story]
Apple (AAPL -1.1%) roundup: 1) A U.S. court has declared the iPhone infringes 3 patents owned by MobileMedia, a patent-trolling business owned by Sony, Nokia, and video IP owner MPEG-LA. Apple owns 58% of Rockstar Bidco, a similar outfit. 2) Raymond James notes 12% of IT distributor Tech Data's (TECD) sales are now Apple-related, and views this as a sign of Apple's rising enterprise clout. 3) Reuters reporters canvassing major cities worldwide declare consumer interest in Apple products to be as high as ever. [View news story]
Why Apple's Fundamentals Are Not Deteriorating [View article]
While RBC and Wells Fargo talk up Apple's (AAPL +2.9%) Chinese sales, Wedge Partners and Merrill try to soothe concerns about iPhone order cuts (I, II). Wedge claims Apple has raised its FQ2 iPhone 5 production forecast by 10%-15% from conservative levels. Merrill suggests order cuts talk largely relates to displays, and that checks with other suppliers indicate only a seasonal drop. Still, the firm is lowering its FY13 iPhone forecast to 162M units from 170.5M, citing "a tepid US/Europe consumer and aggressive promotions [presumably for rival products] at US retailers." [View news story]
How Apple's Current Price Is Justified [View article]
Over 2M iPhone 5 units have been sold thus far in China, Apple (AAPL) boasts. China Unicom's (CHU) healthy pre-order activity probably had a lot to do with this figure. Sparse crowds for the Friday launch stoked fears initial sales were light, but weather and pre-ordering requirements seem to have played a role. For reference, Apple announced in September over 5M iPhone 5 units had been sold 3 days after the device went on sale in the U.S., Japan, and 7 other locales. (PR) [View news story]
More on Apple: Shares could be pressured by a downgrade to Neutral from Citi. The firm says checks indicate Apple has cut its March quarter iPhone 5 orders following a 45%-50% increase in monthly output from October to December. UBS recently said checks suggested the iPhone 5's build rate would fall sharply in the March quarter, while Jefferies claimed iPhone component suppliers saw big order cuts last week. Citi, which started Apple at Buy on Nov. 26, also thinks Samsung is doing very well. Update: Morgan Stanley responds by pointing to encouraging U.S. iPhone/iPad survey data. But a gap has opened up between U.S. and foreign iPhone share trends. [View news story]
More on Apple: Shares could be pressured by a downgrade to Neutral from Citi. The firm says checks indicate Apple has cut its March quarter iPhone 5 orders following a 45%-50% increase in monthly output from October to December. UBS recently said checks suggested the iPhone 5's build rate would fall sharply in the March quarter, while Jefferies claimed iPhone component suppliers saw big order cuts last week. Citi, which started Apple at Buy on Nov. 26, also thinks Samsung is doing very well. Update: Morgan Stanley responds by pointing to encouraging U.S. iPhone/iPad survey data. But a gap has opened up between U.S. and foreign iPhone share trends. [View news story]
More on Apple: Shares could be pressured by a downgrade to Neutral from Citi. The firm says checks indicate Apple has cut its March quarter iPhone 5 orders following a 45%-50% increase in monthly output from October to December. UBS recently said checks suggested the iPhone 5's build rate would fall sharply in the March quarter, while Jefferies claimed iPhone component suppliers saw big order cuts last week. Citi, which started Apple at Buy on Nov. 26, also thinks Samsung is doing very well. Update: Morgan Stanley responds by pointing to encouraging U.S. iPhone/iPad survey data. But a gap has opened up between U.S. and foreign iPhone share trends. [View news story]
Apple: A Look At The Chart, Historical Comparisons, And Academia [View article]
Apple's Achilles' Heel: Samsung Has An Arrow Pointed Straight At It [View article]
A downbeat note from Macquarie's Daniel Chang could be contributing to today's Apple (AAPL -2.1%) selloff. Chang, who covers Taiwanese names and is downgrading Foxconn (HNHAF.PK) to Neutral, has lowered his FQ1 (Dec. quarter) iPhone sales forecast to 44M from 48M, and his FQ2 forecast to 26M from 28M. Gene Munster, however, is his usual upbeat self: he notes Piper's latest survey of potential U.S. smartphone buyers found 53.3% thinking of getting an iPhone 5; an October survey reported 54.9%. [View news story]
Apple Is Priced For No Growth [View article]
More on UBS's Apple (AAPL -2.9%) target cut: Analyst Steve Milunovich hasn't changed his FQ1 iPhone forecast much, but has lowered his estimates for each of the next 3 quarters by 5M. He claims Supply chain checks indicate the iPhone build rate will fall to 25M in the March quarter (his sales estimate for the quarter is still at 40M); that some Chinese sources don't expect the iPhone 5 to do as well as the 4S; and (like others) that the iPad Mini is cannibalizing its bigger peer. On a more positive note, he thinks China Mobile could start selling the iPhone in a year. (Macquarie) [View news story]
The Lines Meme Seems Bogus [View article]
A downbeat note from Macquarie's Daniel Chang could be contributing to today's Apple (AAPL -2.1%) selloff. Chang, who covers Taiwanese names and is downgrading Foxconn (HNHAF.PK) to Neutral, has lowered his FQ1 (Dec. quarter) iPhone sales forecast to 44M from 48M, and his FQ2 forecast to 26M from 28M. Gene Munster, however, is his usual upbeat self: he notes Piper's latest survey of potential U.S. smartphone buyers found 53.3% thinking of getting an iPhone 5; an October survey reported 54.9%. [View news story]
Apple (AAPL -1.1%) roundup: 1) A U.S. court has declared the iPhone infringes 3 patents owned by MobileMedia, a patent-trolling business owned by Sony, Nokia, and video IP owner MPEG-LA. Apple owns 58% of Rockstar Bidco, a similar outfit. 2) Raymond James notes 12% of IT distributor Tech Data's (TECD) sales are now Apple-related, and views this as a sign of Apple's rising enterprise clout. 3) Reuters reporters canvassing major cities worldwide declare consumer interest in Apple products to be as high as ever. [View news story]