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Hi, I am “Flight” creator of I work for United Airlines. I’m just a regular guy like you. I’m married with 3 children. I’m very passionate about trading. I have been on a quest to learn how to best grow my 401K and have a secure retirement. I tried the passive... More
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  • UAUA, SPX, Oil Trading Pattern

    UAUA, SPX, Oil, there is a pattern to how they trade. Knowing this pattern gives you an advantage in my opinion. It took me a while to figure out how I was going to put what I saw looking at 3 charts together. I came up with this UAUA 2 yr chart. I tried to make it as visual and graphical as I could. Took longer than I thought. It’s late I am tired, I might add something to the post tomorrow. I hope you can see their relationships too…

    UPDATE:  The relationship with oil is “a little” more complex than oil down, UAUA up. The relationship is better defined when you add the broad market trend into the mix…

    In example: UAUA, “generally” trends down when oil “and” the major indexes go down; and goes up when “both” oil and the indexes go up.

    But the 3 have “a little” more complex relationship when not in unison”

     In 2008 when the market was dropping like a rock, much like it is currently, the trio dropped together until the SPX stablized in a range. Once the SPX stabilized for a reasonable, but short period UAUA would then rise as long as oil was still trending down.  Oil tended to lag the indexes by 2 weeks to a month before it’s decent would stablize and or/rise a little. It was during those lag times, where the indexes stablized and oil continued down that UAUA made huge jumps in price… Only to decend again once the lag period was over, and oil had a good week while the SPX was still in a range. Volatility also played into the mix, but more in relation to the size of the moves…

    This pattern more or less fits for all airlines...

    Link to UAUA, SPX, Oil Pattern chart at bottom of my blog post...

    Disclosure: "Long UAUA, No Position in Oil or SPX" I work for United Airlines in a non-management capacity, an employee
    Tags: UAUA, SPY, Oil, Airlines
    May 16 12:41 AM | Link | Comment!
  • I Believe These Cycles are in Play Now!
    No one can see the future, But IMVHO, at some point the paragraphs below will play out, whether now or a little later... I am betting weighted short, with TZA and playing the Oil down, stronger dollar more travel, bottom line up, Revs Up for Airlines with UAUA and CAL to a lesser extent. looking at EPV, VXX, VXZ and possibly TMF as a swing trade...

    Our problem is more of a demographic one, the population is aging. The Boomers are past their peak spending years. They are starting to save for retirement or retiring… We CANNOT escape this. The last time we faced the same demographic situation was in 1928 when another large generation had already peaked in spending. Japan has already experienced this in the 1990’s.

    Anything else is a just a Red Herring…

    Further more the crisis during the Carter administration was due to the Boomers Hitting the Job Market in the 70’s.

    We are facing the end of 5 cycles almost simultaneously, a Spending cycle, a Technology cycle, a Commodity cycle, a Housing and a demographic one. We’ll survive, and in the end there will be more entitlements not less, and we will see deflation, not inflation. Taxes will go up. Weak companies will die. Assets will depreciate and debts will just disappear… In the end the general population will once again be able to afford to live on what they make… That’s what happens. There is no other way. You can fight it, or accept it and make wise economic decisions by understanding it…

    The Echo Boomers, the children of the Baby Boomers will soon pick up the slack around 2017, though they are a smaller generation…

    Disclosure: "Long TZA, Long UAUA, Long CAL, No position VXX, No position VXZ, No position TMF, No position EPV"
    May 16 12:21 AM | Link | Comment!
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