Time For Investors To Reassess Their MLP Holdings [View article]
PAA is in a strong market....crude oil logistics. Probably the best sector within the midstream MLP business area.
However is PAA exposed to more risk than needed by having a large % of their crude logistics assets in one geographic area... the Texas/Oklahoma region. I am thinking that geographic diversification would help reduce business risk and provide a wider range of future opportunities for any midstream firm.
Any comments on PAA's set up would be appreciated.
2 Of Goldman Sachs' Favorite Energy Names [View article]
BJ:
Potential spin off of what ?
Current weakening of dayrates environment in which specific drilling sector ? Harsh, shallow depth jack ups ?
During the recent PACD CC, the CEO mentioned several times his major concern in rolling out his 8 drill-ship fleet of UDW rigs is employing and training enough drilling staff to efficiently and safely execute their customers E&P schedules. He said he has the best drill-rigs in the market but he must have the best staff to operate these assets. People make the rigs productive.
Does NE have the human resources to drive profitable drilling schedules for StatOil ? Quality off shore drilling staff is becoming much harder to obtain....... before going long NE I would like to be assured they have quality staff in place for their 10K depth project. Wages and bonuses are becoming a larger portion of off shore drilling opex growth, which directly reduces FCF, EBITA and IRR from "day one"
2 Of Goldman Sachs' Favorite Energy Names [View article]
Interesting to hear the Category J jack up drill rigs are designed for water depths of 200 to 750 feet. Not ultra deep, but built for harsh conditions and 10,000 feet wells.
Did StatOil fund a portion of the project to biuld these jack ups. NE has not announced a builder for these jack ups as of yet.
These category J jack ups sound like they are designed specifically for this StatOil drill project.
NE still needs ultra deep semi's and/or drill-ships.
Energy Transfer Partners: The Pieces Are Falling Into Place [View article]
Ray
So, as much as ETP appears to be making good headway in Q1, there seems to be many substantive catalysts for the future improvement in ETP.
I agree with you that any "moral victory" in distribution hike in 2013 could be small, but I feel that ETP will offer robust distribution and price growth over the next 5 years.
I have been long ETP since August 2009, I plan to stay long maybe, until the end of the decade......
Energy Transfer Partners: The Pieces Are Falling Into Place [View article]
Ray
Again a clear, concise Q1 summary of a large MLP with a lot of moving parts........
Your opinion that ETP is executing on their plan makes me feel better about my ETP position.
I still see the Sunoco retail and the APL stock in hand as significant constraints to ETP truly realizing its potential as a FCF generating firm poised for growth. Both are dead money on low return businesses that have nothing to do with ETP's "evolution" strategy.
Ray, how would you quantify the impact or size of the combined Sunoco stations plus APL shares stakes on the ETP income statement of balance sheet ? After all of the ETE/ETP deals and rearrangements, would the disposal of these 2 non-core assets have a material impact on the future prospects of ETP ? Or are these 2 assets small as compared to the current ETP operation.
Really like to hear you say, given your background, that you like the engineering performance and "on time, on budget" results of recent projects. What do you think will have a more positive impact for ETP ? Trunkline reversal or the Rich Eagle Ford/Lone Star 2nd NGL fractionation JV deals ? I am thinking Trunkline. Do you agree, or am I wrong.
Thanks again for the effort to clarify the ETP ongoing story.
Linn Energy: Don't Believe The (Negative) Hype [View article]
DEJ:
What difference does it make which level of investing sophistication F-P possesses ? His questions seem fair and reasonable. Why are you prompted to make your post ? We are all here to read & learn and debate. From a guy who has made 575 posts "I have no view on either" is an odd response. You seem to have "street cred" from your profile. Tell the board what is really bothering you with F-P's question.
Long LINE since Oct 2007....still long entire position.
An Introduction To Investing In Offshore Drilling Companies [View article]
Main driver of dry bulk shipping is economic demand for commodities by major commodity importing countries....
Ship builds is a result of commodity demand, usually 1/2 of a business cycle behind. Reason shippers go down is poor mgmt of their future demand prospects. Shippers build going into economic downturns. Dumb.
UDW E&P is here to stay. Rig demand will be based on technological/safety features the majors want.
Majors/NOC will always drill off-shore in "deep or harsh" environments, the real issue for drilling contractors is to have the needed "tools" (rigs) or rigs that can be technologically upgraded to meet the current then future tech/safety needs of their customers.
Basically a dry bulk ship, is a dry bulk ship. They last for decades. Not so with UDW/harsh semi's or drill-ships. Features really matter in the UDW.
PACD has data on their presentation sight that shows off-shore 7th gen drill rigs demand > 7th gen rig production into the late part of this decade. Not every shipbuilder can make the best UDW floaters.
An Introduction To Investing In Offshore Drilling Companies [View article]
IMO, UDW/harsh off-shore drilling is much different from global shipping. UDW off-shore drilling rates are being driven by technological innovation. Dry bulk shipping is driven by select general commodity demands between regions of the globe.
More often large plays of crude are located off shore in deep waters where environmental concerns are an important aspect in the extraction of the molecules.
Older generation of off-shore drilling rigs do not offer the majors the efficiency or safety performance of the new 7th generation rigs. Safety and/or efficiency is money for the majors.
I doubt safety demands, softening environmental impact and drilling efficiencies will be rolled back in the off-shore drilling sector, in the future. This is just my opinion. There are drill-ships built in the 1990s that are dry-docked now for lack of charters while 7th generation semi's and drill-ships command day rates that are in the lower $ 600K range.
I think the big risk to the current 7th generation drill rigs could be their lack of modification flexibility once the 8th, 9th and invariable 10th generation rigs are available sometime in the future. Rig designs that can not undated, at reasonable expense, will be dry docked in favor of "best tech" assets.
An investor only has to remember what happened when BP/RIG decided to utilize a less than best of class rig in the USGOM. Looks like they overlooked safety and performance issues in favor of the low cost option. This ended up costing BP and to a lesser extent RIG, billions of dollars.
Close to 70 % of the globe is covered by water, much of it in harsh environments. UDW drill rigs are quite profitable for the major's E&P projects at current day rates, as long as Brent crude remains above $ 80-90.
Shipping as compared to UDW off-shore drilling are 2 different industries with little comparable aspects, IMO
Rowan: Push Into Ultra-Deepwater Could Bring Profits To Investors [View article]
Which ship builder did RDC contract with to build out their fleet of 4 drill-ships ?
If HAL does a partnership with RDC, what will happen to its relations with the other UDW/harsh drillers ? WFT, NOV, CAM SLB, among others, are competitors to supply the drilling contractors.
7th generation drill-ships will be in huge demand...until...... the next generation offers superior benefits to the majors ! The real risk to buying 7th generation rigs is how much retro- fitting can be made in the oceans, once the rigs are operational, to keep up with future technological advancements in the safety and systems for UDW or harsh drilling. The majors have shown they will not pay market prices for old technology.
Is Windstream The Next Dividend Death Trap? [View article]
Agree with you, Ckid......
Interesting that the original author has not one response to the colorful and in depth comments posted by you, Tom and others.
Maybe you and Mr Marx should get together and publish your own comprehensive article of the evolving telco business landscape. Your differing veiw points would surely produce offer an essay.
It would hopefully remove authors like this guy from to the back pages of SA..........
Rowan: Push Into Ultra-Deepwater Could Bring Profits To Investors [View article]
Only problem with VTG is you would have to buy & deal with their horrible balance sheet
IMO, PACD is a better, cleaner target. But would sell at a higher multiple. Eight 7th generation drill-ships scheduled.
Too big for Rowan, but not for ESV or RIG. Either could handle the VTG "garbage," but it would shrink the profits metrics of the new VTG fleet, relative to other UDW programs.
Could NE & Rowan combine into the future ? Does 2 weak UDW programs make for one solid result ? Maybe, but a lot of noncompetitive off-shore assets could make the bankers balk at such a deal.
Rowan: Push Into Ultra-Deepwater Could Bring Profits To Investors [View article]
Topcat you are so right !
The way the major shipbuilders are over-booked with 7th generation drillship orders, from all types of firms, you would think harsh/UDW E&P is akin to opening a gas station !
UDW operations is definitely no walk in the park.
I have been amazed how some banks will expend credit to "anyone," for a drill-ship, who say they have a major oil firm off-shore UDW charter deal pending.
Existing active off-shore drilling firms have the clear advantage in UDW. Some say the NOC want to enter this business, but its not as easy as buying a few rigs ! Rowan could learn this the hard way.
Time For Investors To Reassess Their MLP Holdings [View article]
best sector within the midstream MLP business area.
However is PAA exposed to more risk than needed by having
a large % of their crude logistics assets in one geographic area...
the Texas/Oklahoma region. I am thinking that geographic
diversification would help reduce business risk and provide a
wider range of future opportunities for any midstream firm.
Any comments on PAA's set up would be appreciated.
2 Of Goldman Sachs' Favorite Energy Names [View article]
Potential spin off of what ?
Current weakening of dayrates environment in which specific
drilling sector ? Harsh, shallow depth jack ups ?
During the recent PACD CC, the CEO mentioned several times
his major concern in rolling out his 8 drill-ship fleet of UDW
rigs is employing and training enough drilling staff to efficiently
and safely execute their customers E&P schedules. He said
he has the best drill-rigs in the market but he must have the best
staff to operate these assets. People make the rigs productive.
Does NE have the human resources to drive profitable drilling
schedules for StatOil ? Quality off shore drilling staff is becoming
much harder to obtain....... before going long NE I would like to
be assured they have quality staff in place for their 10K depth
project. Wages and bonuses are becoming a larger portion of
off shore drilling opex growth, which directly reduces FCF, EBITA
and IRR from "day one"
2 Of Goldman Sachs' Favorite Energy Names [View article]
for water depths of 200 to 750 feet. Not ultra deep, but built for
harsh conditions and 10,000 feet wells.
Did StatOil fund a portion of the project to biuld these jack ups.
NE has not announced a builder for these jack ups as of yet.
These category J jack ups sound like they are designed
specifically for this StatOil drill project.
NE still needs ultra deep semi's and/or drill-ships.
Energy Transfer Partners: The Pieces Are Falling Into Place [View article]
So, as much as ETP appears to be making good headway in Q1,
there seems to be many substantive catalysts for the future
improvement in ETP.
I agree with you that any "moral victory" in distribution hike in 2013
could be small, but I feel that ETP will offer robust distribution and
price growth over the next 5 years.
I have been long ETP since August 2009, I plan to stay long
maybe, until the end of the decade......
Talk to you next quarter, regards !
Energy Transfer Partners: The Pieces Are Falling Into Place [View article]
Again a clear, concise Q1 summary of a large MLP with a lot
of moving parts........
Your opinion that ETP is executing on their plan makes me
feel better about my ETP position.
I still see the Sunoco retail and the APL stock in hand as
significant constraints to ETP truly realizing its potential
as a FCF generating firm poised for growth. Both are dead
money on low return businesses that have nothing to do
with ETP's "evolution" strategy.
Ray, how would you quantify the impact or size of the
combined Sunoco stations plus APL shares stakes on
the ETP income statement of balance sheet ? After all
of the ETE/ETP deals and rearrangements, would the
disposal of these 2 non-core assets have a material impact
on the future prospects of ETP ? Or are these 2 assets
small as compared to the current ETP operation.
Really like to hear you say, given your background, that you
like the engineering performance and "on time, on budget"
results of recent projects. What do you think will have a
more positive impact for ETP ? Trunkline reversal or the
Rich Eagle Ford/Lone Star 2nd NGL fractionation JV deals ?
I am thinking Trunkline. Do you agree, or am I wrong.
Thanks again for the effort to clarify the ETP ongoing story.
Linn Energy: Don't Believe The (Negative) Hype [View article]
What difference does it make which level of investing sophistication
F-P possesses ? His questions seem fair and reasonable. Why
are you prompted to make your post ? We are all here to read & learn and debate. From a guy who has made 575 posts "I have
no view on either" is an odd response. You seem to have "street
cred" from your profile. Tell the board what is really bothering you
with F-P's question.
Long LINE since Oct 2007....still long entire position.
An Introduction To Investing In Offshore Drilling Companies [View article]
commodities by major commodity importing countries....
Ship builds is a result of commodity demand, usually 1/2
of a business cycle behind. Reason shippers go down
is poor mgmt of their future demand prospects. Shippers
build going into economic downturns. Dumb.
UDW E&P is here to stay. Rig demand will be based
on technological/safety features the majors want.
Majors/NOC will always drill off-shore in "deep or harsh"
environments, the real issue for drilling contractors is to have
the needed "tools" (rigs) or rigs that can be technologically
upgraded to meet the current then future tech/safety needs of
their customers.
Basically a dry bulk ship, is a dry bulk ship. They last for
decades. Not so with UDW/harsh semi's or drill-ships.
Features really matter in the UDW.
PACD has data on their presentation sight that shows
off-shore 7th gen drill rigs demand > 7th gen rig production
into the late part of this decade. Not every shipbuilder can
make the best UDW floaters.
A Simpler Energy Transfer Partners Will Improve Unit Holder Value [View article]
An Introduction To Investing In Offshore Drilling Companies [View article]
shipping. UDW off-shore drilling rates are being driven by
technological innovation. Dry bulk shipping is driven by select
general commodity demands between regions of the globe.
More often large plays of crude are located off shore in deep
waters where environmental concerns are an important aspect
in the extraction of the molecules.
Older generation of off-shore drilling rigs do not offer the majors
the efficiency or safety performance of the new 7th generation rigs.
Safety and/or efficiency is money for the majors.
I doubt safety demands, softening environmental impact and
drilling efficiencies will be rolled back in the off-shore drilling
sector, in the future. This is just my opinion. There are drill-ships
built in the 1990s that are dry-docked now for lack of charters
while 7th generation semi's and drill-ships command day rates
that are in the lower $ 600K range.
I think the big risk to the current 7th generation drill rigs could
be their lack of modification flexibility once the 8th, 9th and
invariable 10th generation rigs are available sometime in the
future. Rig designs that can not undated, at reasonable expense,
will be dry docked in favor of "best tech" assets.
An investor only has to remember what happened when BP/RIG
decided to utilize a less than best of class rig in the USGOM.
Looks like they overlooked safety and performance issues in
favor of the low cost option. This ended up costing BP and to
a lesser extent RIG, billions of dollars.
Close to 70 % of the globe is covered by water, much of it in
harsh environments. UDW drill rigs are quite profitable for the
major's E&P projects at current day rates, as long as Brent
crude remains above $ 80-90.
Shipping as compared to UDW off-shore drilling are 2 different
industries with little comparable aspects, IMO
An Introduction To Investing In Offshore Drilling Companies [View article]
UDW/harsh designs were available.........always willing to
learn from others perspectives
An Introduction To Investing In Offshore Drilling Companies [View article]
Rowan: Push Into Ultra-Deepwater Could Bring Profits To Investors [View article]
fleet of 4 drill-ships ?
If HAL does a partnership with RDC, what will happen to its
relations with the other UDW/harsh drillers ? WFT, NOV, CAM
SLB, among others, are competitors to supply the drilling
contractors.
7th generation drill-ships will be in huge demand...until......
the next generation offers superior benefits to the majors !
The real risk to buying 7th generation rigs is how much retro-
fitting can be made in the oceans, once the rigs are operational,
to keep up with future technological advancements in the
safety and systems for UDW or harsh drilling. The majors
have shown they will not pay market prices for old technology.
Is Windstream The Next Dividend Death Trap? [View article]
Interesting that the original author has not one response to the
colorful and in depth comments posted by you, Tom and others.
Maybe you and Mr Marx should get together and publish your
own comprehensive article of the evolving telco business
landscape. Your differing veiw points would surely produce
offer an essay.
It would hopefully remove authors like this guy from to the
back pages of SA..........
Thanks to you and Tom for your insights
Long WIN
Rowan: Push Into Ultra-Deepwater Could Bring Profits To Investors [View article]
with their horrible balance sheet
IMO, PACD is a better, cleaner target. But would sell
at a higher multiple. Eight 7th generation drill-ships
scheduled.
Too big for Rowan, but not for ESV or RIG.
Either could handle the VTG "garbage," but it would shrink
the profits metrics of the new VTG fleet, relative to other
UDW programs.
Could NE & Rowan combine into the future ? Does
2 weak UDW programs make for one solid result ?
Maybe, but a lot of noncompetitive off-shore assets
could make the bankers balk at such a deal.
Rowan: Push Into Ultra-Deepwater Could Bring Profits To Investors [View article]
The way the major shipbuilders are over-booked with
7th generation drillship orders, from all types of firms, you
would think harsh/UDW E&P is akin to opening a gas station !
UDW operations is definitely no walk in the park.
I have been amazed how some banks will expend credit
to "anyone," for a drill-ship, who say they have a major
oil firm off-shore UDW charter deal pending.
Existing active off-shore drilling firms have the clear advantage
in UDW. Some say the NOC want to enter this business, but
its not as easy as buying a few rigs ! Rowan could learn this the
hard way.