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  • TJX Companies - Reassuring Quarter From This Long-Term Value Creator [View article]

    JCP did OK..?
    From negative growth, near death experience....not relevant

    Kohl's has problems every other quarter, it seems. They need a mgmt change.

    Only real comparison for TJX is ROST....which reports tomorrow.
    Aug 20 04:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy Transfer Rocks On... Reloads The Cannons [View article]

    Seems like retail convenience gas stations are being dealt of late......

    Do you see ETP buying additional retail/downstream assets to
    add to the existing Sun/Suss base ? Maybe something in the west
    portion of the nation, to add geographic diversification ?

    Thanks again, Ray
    Aug 19 10:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy Transfer Rocks On... Reloads The Cannons [View article]

    Another clear, relevant & board overview of the ETP/ETE family. Your writing
    style makes its easy for me to breeze through your contributions, on a firm that
    is not the easiest to understand.

    Any comment on what could be next for the SUSS + Sunoco retail assets ?
    Will ETP hold on, add to or sell these.......

    What could cause a near/mid term downdraft in ETE unit price ? I would
    like to take a position....but its like "buying into UNP" not easy to do at
    current levels...!

    Best regards, Ray
    Aug 19 08:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Whisper Number Impact: What To Expect From TJX Companies Earnings [View article]
    Can't see how TJX European operations will help provide a positive
    surprise for Q2.

    Is ROST a better Q2 bet since it has no EU exposure.?

    If TJX is close tomorrow, than bet that ROST will beat easily on Thursday.....
    Aug 18 07:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Schlumberger's Recent Weakness A Buying Opportunity? [View article]
    SLB CEO Kibsgaard, since 2011, has been investing heavily into the land drilling
    markets, most notably in the USA shale/fracking markets.

    HAL has been the leader for years in the USA. However SLB generated
    $ 14 billion in revenues in North America, while HAL still leads with $ 15 billion. But SLB leads in the important metric of margins on that growing business 18 %
    as compared to HAL's 16.9 %. IMO, SLB will be the market leader in North America by the ned of 2015, by revenues and margins.

    SLB is investing a lot in acquisitions in the "on-shore shale & fracking" area
    and thus far, it looks like Kibsgraad's plan is paying off, from a low base...

    SLB's North American revenues are 7 times larger than their revenue exposure
    to Russia.....I would hazard to say that SLB is growing faster in North America
    than in the arctic Russian off-shore.

    I hope the market continues to show signs of fear in a potential Russian
    energy hiccup to as this will allow the price of SLB to ease further, near term.

    For what is is worth, these are my SLB EPS projections
    $ 5.50 2014
    $ 6.32 2015
    $ 7.52 2016
    $ 8.95 2017
    $ 10.60 2018

    With a P/E of 20 in 2018, SLB will trade at $ 212 & pay out $ 3.60 in annual
    cash dividends.

    The relatively new CEO, leading its strong mgmt team, and its huge scale will
    allow SLB to reach operating metrics not seen before.

    SLB reminds me of LMT, but with better and broader growth prospects...!
    Aug 17 09:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Schlumberger's Recent Weakness A Buying Opportunity? [View article]
    The SLB dividend is small, but since the new CEO, SLB has increased
    the dividend amount aggressively. More needs to be paid out but
    at least the div growth rate has increased.

    However, not so sure that evaluating SLB via its dividend is the
    proper means to look at the full potential of this security.....
    Aug 17 09:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • B&G Foods Disappoints - Reduces Guidance [View article]

    How about someone from POST or PF or SJM ......? A person with
    EVP level experience in a roll up food brands business.

    BGS future success and price improvement will be based upon
    continued acquisitions, not organic growth, IMO.

    I thought maybe a Frito Lay or Hain Celestial EVP, but I think
    that would be too narrow of focus for the next BGS chief.
    Aug 13 10:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • B&G Foods Disappoints - Reduces Guidance [View article]

    With rates still at historic lows, I think a SPO is less likely. Have
    you heard Wenner mention the possibility of a SPO to fund one last
    deal....? I have not. A SPO now, with the stock price balancing
    around $ 29, could send it to $ 23.

    IMO a good deal for brand(s) that fits well at BGS and sends
    leverage over 5 X would be accepted by institutionals......

    What's your thoughts on "the who or where" for a "best fit" new
    CEO for BG Foods....?

    BTW, I don't think BGS, as a orphan brand roll up firm, is a realistic
    buy out target. The BGS brand portfolio is too scattered to
    merge into an larger existing food brands acquirer. What is your
    thought on this topic.

    Aug 12 06:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill's Earnings Report Continues To Show Company's Strength [View article]
    Hawk & Hedge

    What do you guys see in the new IPO out of Transocean ......RIGP

    Its a 3 rig MLP with all of the rigs signed to long term contracts.
    RIGP appears to have 4 UDW drill-ships in construction, originally ordered
    by Transocean, each with "quite long" term signed contracts as well.

    Plans to pay out $ 1.45 per unit. I haven't reviewed all of the financials
    yet, but debt does not look monstrous at first glance

    ...out of the IPO gate, the price has moved higher higher, as one might expect.......I think I like the future free cash flow projections, if RIGP
    does in fact, get the 4 new drill-ships in fabrication.

    If you have time, maybe look at RIGP from the perspective of
    "SDRL with all of its new-builds contracted, and with a fraction of
    its the debt"
    Aug 4 07:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Full Steam Ahead For Transocean Partners IPO [View article]
    RIGP is a stand alone security...only insiders at RIG exchanged their
    shares of RIG for RIGP

    Intrigued by the 'ultra high tech" quality assets RIGP has and the 4
    UDW drill-ships that RIGP could receive, that are still in the construction

    RIGP has very long ranging drilling contracts signed for each of their rigs.
    This provides strong visibility for gross operating cash flows over the next
    several years.

    Almost hard to believe that the 4 drill-ships being built now, have long term
    drilling contracts signed, waiting for these ships when they are delivered.

    Most UDW rigs scheduled for delivery in 2015-2017 lack drilling contracts
    of any duration.
    Aug 4 06:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Transocean Partners Has Successful IPO On Worst Day Of The Year! [View article]
    How do RIG shareholders benefit by losing total control of the future
    cash flows from the drilling assets that went to RIGP....?

    The quality of the RIGP drill ships, the next group of new build
    assets and their associated signed long term contracts is quite strong.

    I can't believe that losing total control of such strong future cash flows
    benefits RIG shareholders

    ......In the next few years the very assets that RIG spun off to RIGP
    will be the only specifications that will be accepted by E&P firms. Any
    thing less will be cold stacked. The RIGP asset spin off must weaken
    the spec quality of the remaining RIG rig fleet......
    Aug 4 08:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bloomin' Brands: Sell Carrabba's, Keep The Steak - Understanding The Upside From A Possible Asset Divestiture [View article]
    a real reasons for divestiture would be....

    1) continued erosion of YOY avg customer check
    2) continued lost of YOY foot traffic
    3) lower margin trends persist

    most of above are internal metrics that are not usually
    broken out and reported to the public by individual restaurant concept

    Anyone who operates a corporate dinning enterprise or is looking
    to purchase one, will definitely wants these data

    Corporate dinning success is NOT based upon ambiance or a keen menu
    Jul 29 08:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • B&G Foods Disappoints - Reduces Guidance [View article]

    Thanks for your reply

    I am beginning to think that BGS snack portfolio will not get fixed
    as we hope. Maybe only marginal revenue increase for 2014, at
    best. I don't hold out much hope for the Old London re-launch or
    better metrics with NYS. Snacks will be a long slow haul, as I
    see it now.

    I am now thinking the only means for BGS to grow in 2014-2015 is
    through new the for traditional SB of A type of
    deal this spring.

    I appreciate your comment from above regarding operating leverage
    and institutional investors. I think one mall but good (valued based) brand purchase could be sustained by the balance sheet.
    I think PE wants to sell brands to make one last rounds of deals in
    this low rate environment, before it concludes.

    Maybe Wenner can steal one last brand, at a good price, maybe for
    less than $ 75 million. Maybe Wenner does this last deal with the
    revolver or a final debt deal rather than equity issuance ?

    Jul 25 09:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • B&G Foods Disappoints - Reduces Guidance [View article]

    I think that a good, accretive acquisition, at a reasonable EBITA
    multiple, would increase the BGS stock price NOT provide a reason
    for a breach of $ 28.

    Wenner could have one last purchase in him, prior to his exit as
    CEO, but it will have to be an attractive brand set.

    I am also thinking that lack of news on the naming of a new CEO
    could begin weighing on the stock price, the further into the fall
    BGS goes before announcing its decision.

    Thanks for another fine contribution regarding BGS.
    Jul 24 04:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Retail: Separating Doomed From Merely Stumbling [View article]
    I am interested in TJX, at current levels also.
    I agree that there is no real benefit adding prior to the earnings report.

    Under $ 52 is a great entry for TJX
    Jul 23 09:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment