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  • Pacific Drilling's Q4 Results Quite Good, But Earnings Likely To Decline Going Forward [View article]

    Comments or ideas as to a deal Beckett is trying to put
    together for CVX in the USGOM....?

    What about this...? "A grand deal with CVX in the Gulf"

    1) Bora: cut day rate to $ 450K
    CVX extends to mid 2017

    2) Mistral: USGOM 2 yrs at $ 425K

    3) Sharav: cut to $ 450K until 12/2016

    4) Meltem: USGOM 2 yrs T $ 410 (maiden)

    Just my opinion of a possible deal that saves PACD. Allows
    PACD to assess market conditions in mid 2017. But all of the
    PACD eggs are in the USGOM basket for at least 2 years.....

    Would Total & others be angry and resist further work with
    PACD in the years to come...?

    I assume PBR is "out of business" until late 2017 in constructing
    this idea.......

    Is this plausible or advisable in March 2015 marketplace...?

    Regards ....
    Feb 27, 2015. 11:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pacific Drilling: Earnings Were Great, Visibility Not So Much [View article]
    My question still stands to you .......

    Please note, I am an investor, not an analyst and not a money adviser.....
    I discount future possible events and invest my capital accordingly.

    Right now, with PACD & the high spec UDW drill-ship marketplace, I say
    they will withstand the current & future "rough seas" and survive in their
    present configuration to drive cash flows strongly higher in the future.

    Long term energy market profiles, expected banker's participation and
    EBITDA generation asset ability, not analysts' notes, form the basis for
    my investment decision. I trade & invest in stocks, not balance sheets
    or income statements......or "expert's" opinions.

    Feel free to share with us when you are short/long PACD and at what price....give us some meat, if you will.

    Regards .......
    Feb 25, 2015. 09:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pacific Drilling: Earnings Were Great, Visibility Not So Much [View article]
    Didn't both Beckett and Reese say their debt structure was safe until
    late 2017 several times....

    .....Beckett also said that if the market saw stable Brent around "$ 70 to $ 90"
    this would be the best environment to allow IOCs and major independent's E&P budget planners to move forward on existing off-shore plays.

    "Nailing" Q4 results of a firm with 6 operating drill-ships is not the big prize
    you seem to imply.....don't hurt your shoulder patting yourself on the back..!
    All the data sets where there for those who cared to work the numbers......

    IMO, the real question for PACD investors is "can Acuff & Beckett work out
    a multi drill-ship deal (existing & new builds)with CVX in the USGOM in the
    next 12 months..?" Answer this question in Feb 2015 correctly and you
    can say you made a real prediction victory....!

    Feb 24, 2015. 03:28 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Off-price Macy's concept could disrupt [View news story]
    Mr Silber

    One important detail about competing vs TJX the real estate mgmt
    component to running a profitable off-price chain .......

    Myerowitz & Co are expert at locating and developing great "rev per sq ft"
    business propositions all over the USA....this is not easy & may act as
    an impediment to other retailers entering this space profitably.

    Regards ....
    Feb 23, 2015. 12:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Transocean CEO steps down [View news story]
    and maybe a dash of common sense...?

    But what do I know, I've only been investing for 42 years.....
    Feb 19, 2015. 09:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Off-price Macy's concept could disrupt [View news story]
    m watcher

    Macy's vendors will product products specific for the Macy's off-price
    stores, I would agree........however those products will cost Macy's more
    than the products TJX & ROST sources....

    .....and that is why Macy's off-price will be of limited importance to the
    market at large....lower profit margins as compared its main competitors.

    Just because they can, doesn't mean they should......!

    Why doesn't Macy's fix their core brand stores...?
    Lungren can't cost-cut his way to success forever...... the USA does
    not need another "upscale Walmart"......plenty of those already.

    Regards to you.
    Feb 19, 2015. 09:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Transocean CEO steps down [View news story]
    RIG new CEO candidate could be the current Pacific Drilling CEO
    named Chris Beckett who is a former RIG top executive ........

    As PACD investor, I would hate to lose Beckett but he would take the
    RIG job if offered, IMO.
    Feb 16, 2015. 11:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Transocean CEO steps down [View news story]

    You just outlined the premise for selling your position in RIG ........
    move on if your are so angry with RIG mgmt.

    RIG has not been able to get out of its own way for years....!
    Feb 16, 2015. 11:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Off-price Macy's concept could disrupt [View news story]
    Mr Silber

    forgive me for being unclear with my prose.......
    What I should have said was ......

    "if Macy's removes/modifies their consumer image as a "sales & clearance" retailer inside of a supposedly department store ......and
    given the current condition of their merchandise presentation and
    customer service, then I say Macy's would lose a large % of its foot traffic"

    Also, if Macy's really thinks its going to enter the discount retailing
    sector, alongside of TJX and/or ROST, that will mean 1000-2000
    discount stores. Anything less and the Macy's initiative will have no
    real impact and TJX & ROST will thrash a Macy dics store concept..

    If Macy's sets up a discount chain with 500-750 outlets then it competes
    with the same merchandise found in its department stores, all at "sales
    prices". This would be terrible for the Macy's brand. As customers
    would shop their discount locations and forgo the department store, except for a small % of customers.

    What Lungren really needs to do is .....

    1) Stay out of the TJX/ROST tuft
    2) Refurbish the Macy's brand by upgrading the locations and mostly
    improving the customer floor sales personnel quality & quantity.
    3) Justify in the customers mind a reason to pay full price more often.
    4) re-introduce the value added services that were removed years ago.
    5) become the most profitable upper mid department store
    6) realize that the internet will remove most clearance sales in the next
    5 years.
    6) Don't allow the "brick & mortar" to compete with digital.
    Two different opportunities & two different costumers.

    Thank you
    Feb 16, 2015. 09:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Petrobras offshore platform blast kills three workers [View news story]

    The explosion in a normal nation/market environment would trend to
    be a catalyst for positive changes......however PBR is really poorly run and operated by corrupt politicians..... are these same corrupt
    operators able to "turn over a new leave" yesterday and run PBR like
    a true global IOC..?

    I just don't think so ...there is still much money available to tempt them
    away from reforms. Many other well run energy firms exist for my
    investment dollars until there are TRUE SIGNS of reform in reaction to
    this current tragedy.

    Good luck to you ....
    Feb 16, 2015. 08:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • B/E Aerospace - High Growth On The Horizon [View article]
    Thanks again for your reply....

    Who would be potential buyers of BEAV ......?
    IMO BEAV will be an acquirer in the future.
    Koury mgmt stake in BEAV interiors was "castrated" last summer.
    He no longer is the prime decision maker at BEAV.

    All of Wall Street knows that Koury was the "weak sister" in the 2014
    spin off transaction. all an investor needs to do is to look at the new
    BEAV BOD members and the comparative finacial structure of both
    spinoff firms to see that KLXI was a "throw away" not part of a "split of equals".

    Koury's only transaction move going forward, IMO, is trying to sell the
    KLXI business that he controls as CEO. But who wants to take on
    the KXLI debt structure..? In 2014-2016, Koury is paying the price
    for his actions with KLXI in 2008-2013.

    Thank you
    Feb 15, 2015. 01:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • B/E Aerospace - High Growth On The Horizon [View article]
    Mr Boyd

    Thank you for your reply......I appreciate your added explanation on how
    aero supplier's backlogs are calculated and the later converted to cash.

    From the last CC Koury made some remarks about how well the state of
    the art BEAV Philippines plant was operating..... great to have this new
    plant so close to one of BEAV's top markets & better for future margins.
    However I did not get a clear feeling from Koury if Philippines is now
    running at or near full capacity.

    Lavs and the new "ultra 1st class" interiors seem to be BEAV target
    systems for 2015 ....I hope these are run through the Philippines plant
    as well.

    Regarding your last point, I can recall that Relational Investors
    et. al, was active in "explaining" (putting a gun to his head) to Koury
    that he needed to split off his "pet project" new distribution company from the core aero-interiors business.

    IMO Koury would never have controlled his own "robbing" cash flows
    from aero for his distribution idea, no matter how much capital an
    internal KLXI required. Therefore I feel Relational, with other large investors, forced Koury off the staus quo. Relational Investors was
    an important change agent in effecting the BEAV spin off plan.

    Feb 14, 2015. 08:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • B/E Aerospace - High Growth On The Horizon [View article]
    What is BEAV production capacity .....? Is it being fully employed...?

    If BEAV is capacity constrained, then it can not realize its true growth rate,
    post spinoff.....BEAV needs to invest in its ability to clear its growing backlog
    either by increasing its existing fabrication capacity or by acquisition of
    bolt-on firms that currently operate in the "aero interiors" segment.

    I would much rather see BEAV kill its buyback plans & instead use that
    capital to grow its existing ability to turn backlog into free cash flow.

    If what this author says is true regarding jet interior upgrade being
    a long term and durable trend, then the new "Aero interiors-only" BEAV
    should start now to maximize its profit potential.......isn't this why activists entered BEAV last Spring..?????

    Thank you
    Feb 14, 2015. 02:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Petrobras offshore platform blast kills three workers [View news story]
    Bonanza ....

    Dispite what we read & what you post above, do you truly think the
    new PBR CEO, who is a life long banker, at the major state run bank,
    has full autonomy to run the largest energy firm in Brazil......?

    IMO, being the CEO at the main state run bank in Brazil means he has
    shown he will follow instructions, as directed from above.......
    Feb 13, 2015. 11:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Petrobras offshore platform blast kills three workers [View news story]

    Because it was a PBR project where they probably, but not certainly,
    had final OK on budget and funding for the BW contract. PBR had the
    discretion as to what specs BW utilized for the PBR project.....

    .....Much like how BP was found calbible for many, but not all, wrong
    doings with the Deep Water Horizon explosion in the USGOM........

    With all of the new regarding PBR weak mgmt and operations, its
    hard to think they are totally blameless in this event......

    I am not worried about PBR, they are a poorly run state bureaucracy.
    Everyone knows this. I have no interest in PBR as an investment.
    My concern is the secondary potential problems that could face other
    operators of FPSO fleets throughout the world, where FPSO vessels
    could be taken offline for inspection, shakedown or other costly
    downtime programs.
    Feb 13, 2015. 11:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment