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  • Bluebird Bio: Another Look At The Company After The 2015 ASH Meeting  [View article]
    rupers

    Aggressive pre-procedure ablative bone marrow treatments/Rx can
    carry its own morbidity issues.
    Jan 2, 2016. 02:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bluebird Bio: Another Look At The Company After The 2015 ASH Meeting  [View article]
    Dr Sharma

    What are your 2016 prospects for BLCM ........sure its a micro-cap
    biotech with no profits, but I am intrigued from 2 standpoints

    1) encouraging phase 1/2 data sets from ASH in Dec for BPX-501 in
    its application for peds allogeneic SCBMT.

    2) newly signed licensing agreement for its BPX-601 for CAR-T
    technologies for prostate & esophagal Ca indicates at least some
    financial viability

    Lastly one investor now holds 18.4 % of SLCM stock and has recently
    decided to ''go activist'' from its past passive stance. This could be
    the catalyst that BLCM, outside of its science, that propels the
    price higher in 2016...??

    Even though this is off topic, thanks for any comments regarding
    this high risk micro biotech, BLCM, with an a 13 D kicker .......

    regards
    Jan 2, 2016. 02:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fifth Street Finance Corp.'s Prior Period Adjustments And The Impact On Dividends  [View article]
    FSC is a sell for all the reasons you listed as negatives.......

    There are other BDCs to buy instead of this security
    Dec 14, 2015. 08:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Likes B&G Foods Acquisition From General Mills - Should You?  [View article]
    CN

    Sorry...typo, I expect revenue erosion could be worst than
    BG Foods expects.

    I think the canned GG business is more vulnerable than the
    GG frozen business.

    I do not want more spend on marketing, but I fear there is
    a reasonable chance that exponential marketing spending
    increases will be required to reverse worst than expect
    revenue erosion.

    regards
    Oct 2, 2015. 10:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Likes B&G Foods Acquisition From General Mills - Should You?  [View article]
    Respectfully, the same thing could hav been said when Rickland Orchards
    was purchased, the same for when New York Style was added......

    IMO we will see Green Giant market share erosion or improvement in 2016.
    Green Giant, understaffed, as you say in early/mid 2016, could very well
    show negatively market share results.

    All of Cantwell's projections are based upon revenues of $ 550 million.
    Over the past few years we have noted relatively large drops in revenues
    and share from other non-core/new BG Foods brands. I see Green Giant
    possibly missing $ 550 million revenues in 2016. That will not be taken
    kindly by investors. Regaining share vs well entrenched private labels
    is not easy and its expensive.

    Regaining lost business in 2016 as you seem to be saying, CN, would mean
    even larger marketing spends in 2017, when revenues are lower. If GG
    loses 5 % of its planned 2016 $ 550 million revs, that's approx $ 30 million...!
    Marketing costs could increase exponentially retake share....BGS would
    have to spend that cash.

    I hope to hear additional details, with the help of Dennis Mullen and/or his
    consulting firm, on how BGS initially plans to build Green Giant. I would
    like to hear about a EVP hire for frozen brands, maybe like Sands in snacks,
    to spearhead this new endevour. I would think Mullen would know several
    fine candidates.

    Lastly independent of the Green Giant specifics, and even in the face of
    probable rate increases in the coming quarters, I still don't understand why
    BGS made an acquisition of this large size. I still can't get over GG adding
    61 % to total BGS revenues if it does $ 550 million in 2016. IMO way too
    much single brand and transactional risk.

    What would be wrong with being patient and making a few additional
    SB of A sized buys as Kraft or Heinz sells off non-core brands in the future..?

    This deal makes BGS a frozen veggie ''all or nothing '' firm in the future.
    In the future, even if Ortega and Pirate's Booty do great.......who cares
    anymore...? I fear that Green Giant is NOT the brands to build the firm
    around. It was great in the 1970s but a big ?? in 2016.

    Mullen experience at BirdsEye better come through with Green Giant......!

    Thank you.
    Oct 1, 2015. 10:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Likes B&G Foods Acquisition From General Mills - Should You?  [View article]
    CN

    Yes Cantwell says he will spend more funds on marketing & personnel
    to support the Green Giant brands......but several times over the years
    I have seen mgmts spend the money but not deliver the results..!!!!

    Frozen veggies brand development under tons of private label brand competition in NOT a core competency at BG Foods....

    Just because an x-CFO who now the new CEO says he will spend more money does not always mean that an old, established & well known
    grocery store brand will see a reversal of long term revenue and EBITDA
    declines.....maybe I am more cynical or negative than Wall Street, but
    I need to see some/any sort of real Green Giant brand improvement
    before I will cheer this deal in 2016.

    Best regards, JM20
    Sep 30, 2015. 11:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Likes B&G Foods Acquisition From General Mills - Should You?  [View article]
    That was an impressive conversation on intangible non-cash accounting
    mark downs ........I now need to go eat some Pirate's Booty..!!

    I am worried about the BGS purchase of Green Giant longer term.
    BGS will not bring over the existing Green Giant brand mgmt team
    but rather reply on its own ''stellar'' in house marketing professionals
    to revive this huge purchase for BGS.......Green Giant frozen veggies
    is new for BGS just like Rickland Orchards and New York Style was new
    back in 2012-13....!! BGS has not figured out how to resurrect those
    brands. Rickland Orchards probably is totally dead.

    Then there are the Cream of Wheat problems ......and the current
    hiccup with Ortega, BGS largest brand.

    What I am trying to say is that many of the newer or higher profile
    BGS brands are not now performing to plan. But individually, they are
    a small % of total revenues, thus not as large a problem as if the huge
    Green Giant goes into the tank in late 2016 or in 2017......by virtue of
    its relative size as compared to total BGS, its a huge impact ....!

    The BGS director and the existing BGS marketing managers are going
    to grow the Green Giant brand after one of the USA's largest retailers
    could not........??? The dozens of strong private label veggie brands
    sold by every major grocer will not be easy to beat. What is the competitive advantage, over time, of one frozen veggie over another...??? Often
    buyers select base upon price. Not the orphan brand, high margin model
    that made BGS what it is today...!!

    BGS stock should get a ''free pass" and drift higher, all things being the same
    into the middle of Q1 2016....all investors know from Cantwell the added
    EBITDA will bring on the day this deal closes. IMO, BGS could reach and
    go higher than $ 40 if the overall market stay positive over the next 5 months.

    But the real question for BGS shareholders is what type of revenue and EBITDA
    metrics BGS marketing mgmt can deliver in May 2016. If the Green Giant
    metrics surprise on the down side, then BGS stock will take a big hit, which
    could become the new baseline....much lower than years of dividend income.

    This Green Giant deal is 61 % of current BGS size, by revenues...its huge.
    The Green Giant resurrection will be run by marketing folks who have never
    run or resurrected any frozen veggie categories. Hopefully the BGS board member's consulting firm can assist BGS personnel if/when things get
    difficult. The boards member firm gets paid either way.

    BGS gets a free pass for now but the real story doesn't start until mid 2016
    and this new whale is not an easy fix.....wish us all luck
    Sep 29, 2015. 11:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • B&G Foods Preparing For First Acquisition Under New CEO  [View article]
    CN

    Thanks
    Sep 29, 2015. 11:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • B&G Foods Preparing For First Acquisition Under New CEO  [View article]
    CN

    The new problem that has popped up is .......

    .....Cantwell has been convinced by a board member that he needs to
    increase BG Foods by 61 % per revenues, by entering the frozen veggies
    grocery segment. This ain't no orphan brand that sells at very healthy margins.

    Good price for the brands but way too large & adds unneeded risk at a time
    the snacks/core brands problems have not been solved.

    What happens to the BGS stock price if BGS sells $ 495 million Green Giant
    in 2016, instead of the planned $ 550 million......? Look out below if that
    occurs...!
    Sep 28, 2015. 02:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wading Into The Oil Patch? Focus On The Balance Sheet - Part III  [View article]
    Thanks Ray for your timely reply..!!

    I will take a look at the CC and slides, thanks for that tip.

    I don't get how a CCR clause is enforced to insure that ETE & ETC
    trade together, return wise.......

    ETE is off 12 % as I type this......wow

    regards

    JM20
    Sep 28, 2015. 02:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wading Into The Oil Patch? Focus On The Balance Sheet - Part III  [View article]
    Ray ... !

    On the Williams buy-out news, ETE is down 9 % almost at the open....!

    A new corp called ETC, a 1099 not a K-1 securities, is born....
    Is this the reason that ETE is getting killed this morning....??

    How can Warren fold ETC into ETE given their different taxing structures...?

    Does this mean that ETP (and maybe ETE) are going to be converted into
    ETC sometime in the future, much the way Rich Kinder did with KMP/KMI..?

    Hope when you get time that you will compose an article for Seeking Alpha
    regarding this possible game changer for all Energy Transfer investors of all
    stripes.

    Best regards

    JM20
    Sep 28, 2015. 10:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dollar General Vs. Dollar Tree: Which Gives Investors More Bang For Their Buck?  [View article]
    Deltosha

    IMO, Dollar General needs to

    1) Improve the organization of all its stores to be consistent throughout
    its retail network.

    2) Markedly improve cleanliness in the worst 25 % of its old/dirty stores

    3) Upgrade its retail store staff to be more customer focused

    4) Close the lowest 10 % performing Dollar General, system-wide

    With so many options available to the discount disposable products
    customer, even in the ''dollar store'' segment, its about more than
    just the lowest price.

    regards
    Sep 17, 2015. 09:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • B&G Foods rockets higher on back of Green Giant  [View news story]
    ''This jump'' = the added $ 90 million in EBITDA that BG Foods bought
    for 2016 ........paid 7.85 X multiple for this EBITDA stream, not a bad
    price.

    Not bizarre, its simply in the numbers for 2016...........
    Sep 7, 2015. 02:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • B&G Foods rockets higher on back of Green Giant  [View news story]
    retirement

    I would say that the Ortega brand of Mexican foods is still BG Foods
    best growth brand and just as well known as Green Giant.

    Just because its a large brand does not make its prospects any better
    than other small, but better growing (Pirate's Booty) brands.

    Buying Green Giant for $ 765 million simply adds more risk to the
    BG Foods story starting in the late half of 2016.......

    FYI GIS sold $ 585 million of Green Giant in 2014 an BG Foods plans
    to sell approx $ 550 million in 2016.......that's a 6 % drop in Green
    Giant planned revneues.

    Not so sure that throwing $ 32 million per year at Green Giant insures
    a ''resurrected brand & growing earnings"' IMO its more than just
    money or else GIS would have easily thrown $ 100 million to reverse
    this brand........

    In 2016 BGS sees $ 90 million in EBITDA from Green Giant, but in
    2017 who really knows how much EBITDA Cantwell will generate..???
    Sep 7, 2015. 02:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • B&G Foods rockets higher on back of Green Giant  [View news story]
    12ballou

    I doubt advertising will move Green Giant revenues either way because
    that method is too generalized. Look for more in store promo and point
    of purchase communications..to talk to the consumer who is ready to
    make an imminent frozen or canned veggie product buying decision.

    BG Foods needs to put its marketing dollars directly in front of active
    veggie product buyers. Advertisement does not do that.

    Resurrecting Green Giant will not be easy. GIS is not stupid & they made
    their decision to sell The Giant based upon real and strenuous due diligence.
    Sep 4, 2015. 04:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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