cynicexcellence

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  • Tesla Stock Misunderstood: It's Undervalued  [View article]
    Randy: I will only add that you are confusing correlation with causation. Sure, Model S sales have increased in the face of falling oil prices over the past 12 months. But the sales also rose when oil prices were rising during the few years beforehand. This goes back to the whole point that people buying Model S's or X's are hardly, if at all, influenced by fuel prices, tax rebates, or even their desire to be "green". These folks are basically buying an extra car, all cash, as a lifestyle accoutrement. Model 3 users are going to be a different bunch, at least at the significant margin: price elastic, lacking an extra car or two, and evaluating a car quite differently. Finally, it amazes me that you can caption an article on Tesla concluding that "It's Undervalued", and then present absolutely no valuation analysis whatsoever. None. Nada. I don't see the words: cash flows, margins, profits, discount rates, market cap. So tell me/us again exactly why Tesla is undervalued? Faith?
    Feb 3, 2016. 11:46 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon: Advantage Einhorn?  [View article]
    As soon as I read that some "value-based" strategy does not "work any more", I know we are indeed very near or at the end of a cycle. And comparing Buffett to Einhorn is downright silly. Ludicrous actually. Buffett has been investing since the '60's. What they do have in common, IMO, is that they are both just too large, too many AUM. Just gets harder and harder to outperform as an active fund manager once you become so large. But to call value investing dead is downright comedic. Study history. Or just follow Gary.
    Jan 30, 2016. 05:02 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon: Advantage Einhorn?  [View article]
    I love the taunting of one of the best-known, long-term value investors whose track record and holdings are transparent by an SA troll. And I believe Einhorn is a billionaire a few times over.

    Hey, Gar, once you disclose who you are, your holdings, and your track record, your posts are worth reading solely for their entertainment value. Thank goodness they are brief. We all get that you have (supposedly) owned NFLX and AMZN over the last couple of years, which is terrific if true. What brilliance. Why not tell us what else you like going forward? Or are these your only two holdings?
    Jan 30, 2016. 03:37 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon misses estimates, issues in-line guidance; shares drop  [View news story]
    I can absolutely attest that Gary is indeed a "big boy".

    http://tinyurl.com/j3s...
    Jan 30, 2016. 03:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon misses estimates, issues in-line guidance; shares drop  [View news story]
    And NFLX, too. Yowza. Well, Beemers do come in the 3-series as well. Not quite the 7's, but what can you do?
    Jan 29, 2016. 02:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon misses estimates, issues in-line guidance; shares drop  [View news story]
    Gary: was that you I saw in that Kia Sorrento? You looked good in it. Saw the ad for the Beemer on Craig's List. Condolences.
    Jan 29, 2016. 12:39 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Model S U.S. Sales: Peak Or No Peak  [View article]
    1) How can the ASP for the 500,000 cars be $75,000? Walk us through that math.
    2) Batteries is a total guess
    3) is your net profits = free cash flow?
    4) And 8% discount rate? For Tesla? Are you telling us that the average Tesla investor expects 8% a year? Are you kidding? I would be curious what that # is for Teslarians, but that has to be 15% range. Certainly double digits.
    Jan 15, 2016. 12:31 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity: Solid Growth Prospects Make It A Buy  [View article]
    Just killing time on a Sunday, and looking back at the taunting I took from all the SCTY bulls, who are down about 50% since these posts. Assume raylui is long gone, cmnsnse has had his house foreclosed upon...and Thebanker? He buys high and sells low, just like all bankers, I suppose.
    Dec 13, 2015. 11:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Leak Of Material Information Could Impact Short Positions  [View article]
    Boy, I sure would not want a new X (or any car for that matter, but especially a new model car) whose production and delivery may have been rushed in late December just to hit a milestone set by management...mainly to keep the stock price up. Am sure there won't be any quality issues with those particular cars (sarcasm intended). Would be interesting to track...
    Dec 10, 2015. 01:47 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Solvency Risk For NQ Mobile Continues To Increase  [View article]
    Bwahahahha. Yes, Showself (Tinder meets Youporn) is the perfect portal and patform through which NQ will dominate emerging markets.

    Tony, can you please tell me what other investments you like and would like to promote? I need some more good short ideas, since NQ played out so long ago...
    Dec 2, 2015. 07:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Solvency Risk For NQ Mobile Continues To Increase  [View article]
    Look, anyone still pumping this turd (i.e., biotech = congo = ?) is clearly associated in some way with the scam. That can really be the only conclusion, that this company is a total scam, exactly as MW asserted. I mean, what ever happened to the whole mobile security platform that was to change the world? And yidatong? Long gong(e)?! And now Showself is to be the platform for the entire company? A website that looks like a combination of youporn and tinder? Meanwhile, back at the ranch (chicken ranch?), they are divesting of anything and everything, and who are the buyers? One, which cannot put together two toothpicks and a rubber band...and the other, a much larger transaction, cannot disclose anything because of "confidentiality" reasons. Classic. And even if the buyers and the transactions were real, who is lining up to pay these exorbitant sums for money-losing business units that NQ Mobile of all companies wants to sell?

    Well, following this company will be worth it, just for the entertainment and comedic value. I sure could use some popcorn...
    Dec 1, 2015. 05:21 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NQ Mobile reports Q3 results  [View news story]
    Their whole business model is a joke...and it has become painfully clear that MW was essentially right about what they wrote. Just look at those amazing (not) Q3 cash flows. Anyone still long this turd should have their heads examined.
    Nov 30, 2015. 06:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Panic Selling In Destiny Media Is Unwarranted  [View article]
    Looks like this is heading towards zero in due course. Where the heck is SHU to comment?
    Nov 30, 2015. 03:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • NQ Mobile strikes deal to sell mobile health app business for $40M  [View news story]
    First Donald Trump runs for President and leads the Republican candidates in the polls. And now there is another funky NQ Mobile M&A transaction. I can only take so much comedy...
    Nov 29, 2015. 11:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Credit Suisse's 2 Main Catalysts Are Easily Shown To Be False  [View article]
    Paulo: an excellent piece of analysis. Concise and very much to the point. And it is clear that your arguments are near impossible to refute since the #s speak for themselves. My compliments.

    Having said that, it is fairly transparent what the motives are for CS's report and update, especially on this quiet trading day before the holiday. Everyone knows TSLA will need boatloads of capital in fairly short order, and the banks must be chomping at the bit. In fact, you can bet your bottom dollar that they wanted Musk to raise even more capital than they did the last go-round. $700 million is what, six to eight months of capital for this cash-burning machine? I assume the next round will be for at least $1 billion...and CS will get is share.

    If we take a toe-dip into the hot tub time machine, I remember when CS issued the following on DDD systems while it was in its M&A fervor, generating lots of banking fees. Only only when the party ended and it was clear that DDD was never going to achieve CS's lofty projections and retail investors had been badly burned, did they downgrade.

    http://bit.ly/1Hnveu3

    The beat indeed goes on. Happy Thanksgiving to everyone, including the indica-inhaling analysts at CS.
    Nov 25, 2015. 02:02 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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