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cynicexcellence

cynicexcellence
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  • InterOil: Misconstrued Deal Announcement Presents Extraordinary Buying Opportunity [View article]
    You are supposedly a former economics professor or something, so certainly a smart enough guy, but you never provide any detailed analysis, preferring to focus on motives and echoing what others (read: supposed analysts) say. It sure would be refreshing if you provided your own viewpoints and analysis. You used to do that with your IOC articles, which although they turned out to be completely and utterly wrong, at least they provided some unique perspective and insight. Now you just come off as bitter and angry.
    May 29 01:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • InterOil: Misconstrued Deal Announcement Presents Extraordinary Buying Opportunity [View article]
    Shareholders Unite: why can't you just stick to the issues being discussed? You seem to have a habit of regurgitating old news or some things a poster may have said ages ago. Who cares, especially with a company like IOC? IOC has had so many false starts, missed deadlines, unfulfilled promises and expectations, that you should be focusing on that as opposed to some irrelevancies.

    To the matter at hand, IOC is in big, big trouble in my opinion. I am unable to reconcile the CEO leaving the company, along with his brother-in-law and a fellow Board member, the supposedly numerous binding bids made at the end of February (including those from majors), the recent Exxon disclosures, etc. Regarding the latter, it seems that negotiations just started last week, according to the National? Huh? Something seems terribly awry and the stock is tanking. I suggest you stop evaluating posters' histories or their motives, and start doing some actual analysis, responding to not just what Alan or Feel the Heat are saying, but lots of investors.
    May 29 01:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • InterOil's Increasing Value Proposition [View article]
    Feel: you seem absolutely convinced that IOC is an outright fraud. I think many here, including indo, have acknowledged that the company has not helped themselves, may have engaged in excessive self-promotion, missed deadlines, etc. But I think you are overstating your case...and are doing the same thing you accuse others of doing. For example, you cite all these classic frauds (e.g., Enron, Tyco) to support your argument. Is not an appeal to "authority" or something like that? And to think that so many sophisticated investors and banks could be fooled for soooo long is just silly. I mostly trust CapRe. Those guys are smart, employ a team approach, and so forth. And for bankers to say publicly that they have received bids, or to allow IOC to say they had, would be outright fraud and completely self-destructive if they have not received bids. Do I wish IOC would clear the air already, announce something, and be specific? Of course. I am long and want the stock to go up. Anyhow, you sound like a disgruntled former employee or something.
    Mar 18 02:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • InterOil's Increasing Value Proposition [View article]
    Yes, the banks confirmed "bids", but that is not very specific, is it? And you only conclude that IOC will soon have a "partner". But...you specific the million...er, multi-billion dollar questions. Who do you think it will be? A super-major or not? A consortium? Will EWC be in the mix? How do you think the deal will be structured? Lots of upfront cash or not? Any significant contingencies? Will IOC maintain control, or will they be subordinated? Arent't these the real and meaningful questions that need to be answered, especially foe a company that has missed so many previous deadlines, has such a huge short position, and has a market cap of well over $ 3 billion?
    Mar 5 09:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Interoil About To Tap The Capital Markets? [View instapost]
    Some good research, Bonk. You know I predicted a secondary by the end of Q3 last year, which would have happened, I am sure, had PRE not come to the very timely rescue not once, but twice, to provide some temporary liquidity to IOC. Maybe I was just a couple of quarters off?
    Mar 4 07:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weak Short Arguments Further Support The Long Case For InterOil [View article]
    And he has published very, very extensively...in Russian and Russian publications. He has also published extensively on Plato. I do not see a single scholarly article on oil and gas in any reasonably respected U.S. journal.
    Mar 4 03:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weak Short Arguments Further Support The Long Case For InterOil [View article]
    Sam: I think you should do a little more research on Dr. Moors and his promotional newsletter. I believe Bonk has posted some information about this elsewhere. And forgive me, but I am surprised that you would put much stock in Dr. Moor's broad statement re: "majors drooling" given his extraordinarily spotty track record of promoting stocks. In this capacity, Dr. Moors is wearing a Porter Stansbury hat, and not that of an objective academic writing a research piece for the Oil and Gas Journal. You need to be more objective.
    Mar 2 06:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • InterOil: The Final Chapter [View instapost]
    I am just shocked that the author neglected to use the word "imminent" as he did in each of his last three articles, each of which proved to be completely and utterly inaccurate. If nothing else, the author must be complimented on his perseverance and stick-to-it-tiveness. I just think the author is (as he has in the past) thinking in absolutes, black and whites. Anyhow, the stock is trading lower since the company made the announcement. I advise cynicism, as Bonk suggests.
    Jan 28 05:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • InterOil: No Remaining Obstacles To An Imminent Blockbuster Deal [View article]
    They supposedly "laugh" at these tough issues over there. Well, honestly, that explains a whole lot to me. What objective, rational, profit-seeking long would "laugh" or simply brush off the sort of issues raised here, things like lack of extended tests, cash flows and liquidity, missed deadlines, prior fraud claims, and on and on. It is almost like some of these folks are delusional. Does Shareholders Unite realize there are something like 10.8 million shares of IOC short?
    Dec 28 12:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • InterOil: No Remaining Obstacles To An Imminent Blockbuster Deal [View article]
    I agree with much of what you say, psych. Everything said about PNG is true, and yet others are making deals. So...what is going on? Are there questions/doubts about the resource? IOC itself, its management, demands, liquidity? Something sure smells very, very fishy. I would also point out that unlike those other companies, IOC's entire valuation (or pretty much) is based on this resource...and we are talking about an enterprise value of what, $2.5 billion? I think this makes it unique from Oil Search and Talisman, for example.
    Dec 28 03:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • InterOil: No Remaining Obstacles To An Imminent Blockbuster Deal [View article]
    Psych: don't you see that they don't want to? To me, that is strange. And even STP changes the subject when these issues come up. It is like a weird game of blind groupthink.
    Dec 28 03:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • InterOil: No Remaining Obstacles To An Imminent Blockbuster Deal [View article]
    Completely agree, Bonk. And I think Feeltheheat has made some valiid points. It is ironic that Shareholders Unite has just acted towards Feel in the same way that he criticized Alan, for attacking the messenger as opposed to the message. Not sure why there is that hypocrisy, but we should stay focused on the issues. To me, Shareholders Unite's fundamental premise is that the shorts have only one argument, the old "just because you have never seen a pig fly does not mean pigs cannot fly". At the core, that is one of those blanket arguments, which is patently silly, since one can always refute something that way. In this case, I think there is plenty of evidence that the pig cannot fly, or alternatively, may be able to fly sort of like the Kitty Hawk plane flew. It left the ground, but was hardly indicative of the potential for flight. Analogously, IOC may be able to make a "deal", but at what terms? What price? How much upfront cash? How many strings (contingencies) will be applied to the cash and the "deal"? Meanwhile, I think the shorts or cynics have plenty of ammunition and arguments that contradict everything Shareholders Unite has said.

    1) How many investment bankers have tried to get IOC that selldown over the past five years? Five? Six? And where are we? Still waiting?
    2) Has a single insider bought a single share in the last three years (other than option exercises)? Did one Board member sell every share he owned just a few short months ago, while he was puchasing shares in other companies?
    3) Did the IOC CEO say that nothing would prevent FID other than an act of God...back in 2011?
    4) Was the CEO sued for fraud by numerous former partners down in Texas? Did he settle that case for an undisclosed sum (terms) prior to trial?
    5) Hasn't IOC spent at least $80 million per well it has drilled (onshore)? Are comparable costs to be found anywhere else? Has IOC provided detailed breakdown of the hundreds and hundreds and millions it has spent on these wells and "infrastructure"?
    6) Isn't PNG one of the most corrupt nations in the world in which to do business?
    7) Isn't IOC burning through at least $25 million and more like $40 million in cash each and every quarter as both Feel and Bonk have laid out above?
    8) Isn't or hasn't IOC been associated with parties of questionable (being nice) repute, both certain individuals and entities?
    9) Hasn't the company engaged in several related party transactions, including a loan from Clarion Finanz at an annual true cost of over 20%?

    Anyhow, this is just a starter list, meant to demonstrate that the cynics here have far more substance to their arguments and perspectives than the simple - though accurate thus far - pigs don't fly?
    Dec 27 04:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • InterOil: No Remaining Obstacles To An Imminent Blockbuster Deal [View article]
    Agree, VS. All that matters now is for IOC to actually announce, unambiguously, an accretive deal....one that puts a significant amount of cash in IOC's pockets, up front and without contingencies. The PRE deal involves neither (they can force IOC to repay most of the cash, just like Mitsui), and there are some questionable relationships between IOC and PRE that some have written about. To me, this is all noise. IOC has missed one deadline after another, and how this author can talk about anything imminent involving IOC is almost comical really. IOC stock is in a "show me" mode, and if nothing happens through the first few weeks of 2013, I think one can anticipate additional weakness in the stock despite puff pieces like this one. So, we wait.
    Dec 26 02:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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