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HAPPYCAPITALIST

HAPPYCAPITALIST
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  • The Jackson Hole Spin [View article]
    There is a a lot of groupthink going on here, with the media, government and Wall Street all involved to the degree that it serves their purposes. History has shown that groupthink never ends well because no one will stand up and point out any opposing view, even if it's staring them in the face. Worse still, in particularly shaky times, opposing views are called unpatriotic, destructive and "sore loser" oriented as a way of trying to intimidate people to just shut up and let the good times roll. The only problem is, are these really the good times ?
    Aug 20 08:32 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Wrong To Take A Position In A Stock And Then Write About It On Seeking Alpha? [View article]
    Talking one's book is the same as any other information an investor might uncover- a possibly useful nugget which must be further researched and confirmed. At the very least, you're not even paying for it, and at worst case-caveat emptor.
    Aug 6 03:09 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Buy This Dip: The Fed Is Not Your Friend [View article]
    Quick response to those who think Stockman is wrong because he hasn't made money on the market:
    Michael Burry (see "The Big Short" by Michael Lewis) made millions shorting the housing market (2007-2008), but I believe his fund, at it's low point, was down something like 70% before the crisis actually set in. I know the goal is to actually make money, but timing (although we're constantly told it cannot be done) seems to be everything here.
    Aug 5 09:09 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed Gearing Up To Stand Down [View article]
    Hello Christian,
    Sorry for the slow response (a little busy today). I'm referring to Union Square Cafe, a real mainstay in the NYC restaurant business, whose rent basically tripled, forcing them to relocate/Disappear. I'm sure you can Google them and read the NYTimes story, etc.
    J&R is J&R MusicWorld/OfficeWorld... which had been around for something like 40 years and basically just disappeared over night (literally- they just closed their doors one day and shut off the lights). They claim to be remodeling, but I pass the store quite frequently and I can tell you there is no remodeling going on, almost 4 months later. They used to take up an entire city block. Again, I'm sure you can Google it.
    I hear plenty of other stories from merchants/friends in lower Manhattan complaining about skyrocketing rent (mostly small businesses). Thanks very much, Ben and Janet - talk about unintended consequences.
    Jul 31 01:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed Gearing Up To Stand Down [View article]
    Mike,

    I always love reading your work- both enlightening and forward-thinking, unlike many others on SA.
    Just an example of how The Fed has created inflation (which they would never acknowledge): Here in NYC, office space has become harder and harder to come by. Why ?
    2 reasons: First, the zoning laws changed about 15 years ago and many buildings have gone residential from commercial. This cut the supply of commercial space to a certain extent. Second, The Fed's ZIRP policy put out tons of "free" money which hedge funds used to buy up all kinds of properties which might otherwise have been bought by homeowners, further accelerating the move to residential and driving up both residential and commercial rates (by a lot). Why be Landlord of a commercial building when you can convert it, flip it, and walk off with millions of headache-free dollars ?
    Result: Much higher rent costs for, basically, no business-related reason. If you don't believe it, just look at Union Square and J&R as two examples of long-established businesses who are not going to be around anymore.
    Who benefits: Landlords, and maybe the City Tax Dept., but nobody else, really.
    This is the model on which The Fed is basing their economic recovery......
    Jul 31 08:35 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Treasury yields higher after fast Q2 GDP print; rising inflation [View news story]
    Actually, I don't recall saying anything about being in recession. I'm only pointing out that the market being up 3 fold in five years is NOT a return you can typically expect, and the fact that the economy has been "growing" at roughly 2% a year for the past few years, even after all of The Fed's kindness, is not really the type of performance one would expect given where the market finds itself. I'd say that makes me a student of history, and a realist (now, go ahead and call me more names ! That will change everything....)
    Jul 30 04:37 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Treasury yields higher after fast Q2 GDP print; rising inflation [View news story]
    So, taking a balanced view of the market vs. the economy is now considered whining ? That's funny, it used to be called analysis.
    Jul 30 04:20 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Treasury yields higher after fast Q2 GDP print; rising inflation [View news story]
    Now now, Machiavelli ! No need to get personal....or snarky
    Jul 30 03:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Treasury yields higher after fast Q2 GDP print; rising inflation [View news story]
    Lots of snarky comments here today. Perhaps some people are getting tired of defending a lousy economy that refuses to support the high prices they've paid for their Fed-fueled equities ?
    Jul 30 01:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Housing Starts Plunge Due To Horrific Data From The South [View article]
    Actually, it was probably the weather....a bit too nice in the South.
    Jul 17 12:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Central Banks Really Protecting Us? [View article]
    Interesting how The Fed has hit all of its original targets for both unemployment and inflation (I know, I know, who can really believe these numbers ?), yet the party continues on (and has actually spread to the neighbors down the block-ECB, Japan, etc.). The real question is, after all of this money-printing, how come the economy is still looking so miserable ? Oh, but wait, next quarter we should start seeing some REAL growth.....right. We've heard abouth the weather, high corporate profits (conveniently excluding lower corporate revenues), the higher consumer borrowing (this is a GOOD thing?), blah, blah, blah.
    Kevin, I completely agree, the excuse-making and overreaching to justify this extremely overbought market looks like the last hoorah for the ultragreedy still trying to keep the party going. Common sense says that the drugs are starting to wear off.
    Jul 11 08:13 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Some Problems We Can See, Some Problems We Cannot [View article]
    Kevin,

    Great article, as usual. One other overlooked factor is the extremely low volume of trading. Granted, this wouldn't cause a market correction, but it sure would exacerbate one (along with all of the other factors you mention).
    Interesting, as you say, that there seems to be so much reaching to justify where this market has gone in such a short time (and without much underlying support for it being there). Are these cheerleaders trying to convince mom and pop, who have no money for stocks anyway, or themselves ?
    Jul 3 08:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GDP contracted 2.9% [View news story]
    bbro,
    you chose an extreme, so I chose an extreme. Under more normal conditions (i.e No Fed interference & gov't cheerleading to show growth that's not there), one might think about shorting this market. Since it LOOKS (can't tell any more with this environment) like The Fed's hands will become more tied as this continues, the inflated P/E of most stocks (assisted by a lot of share buybacks, not increased revenues) is not justified. Running for the hills ? No. Checking out the gps to see where the hills are ? Yeah
    Jun 25 10:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GDP contracted 2.9% [View news story]
    bbro,

    So I take it you're extremely pleased with these numbers and will continue to buy stocks hand over fist because they're so cheap ?
    Jun 25 09:35 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Awareness Of Inflation, But No Fear Yet [View article]
    The Fed and most other major central banks do all they can to cause inflation, claiming they can "control it" once it starts happening (good luck!), and now that it's here no one (excluding those paying attention :)) wants to acknowledge it. If this isn't the farce of the century then I don't know what is. I have this funny feeling that history (say, 50 to 100 years from now) is going to look at this episode and reach conclusions that few people now are espousing.
    Jun 25 09:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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