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HAPPYCAPITALIST

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  • Are Central Banks Really Protecting Us? [View article]
    Interesting how The Fed has hit all of its original targets for both unemployment and inflation (I know, I know, who can really believe these numbers ?), yet the party continues on (and has actually spread to the neighbors down the block-ECB, Japan, etc.). The real question is, after all of this money-printing, how come the economy is still looking so miserable ? Oh, but wait, next quarter we should start seeing some REAL growth.....right. We've heard abouth the weather, high corporate profits (conveniently excluding lower corporate revenues), the higher consumer borrowing (this is a GOOD thing?), blah, blah, blah.
    Kevin, I completely agree, the excuse-making and overreaching to justify this extremely overbought market looks like the last hoorah for the ultragreedy still trying to keep the party going. Common sense says that the drugs are starting to wear off.
    Jul 11, 2014. 08:13 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Some Problems We Can See, Some Problems We Cannot [View article]
    Kevin,

    Great article, as usual. One other overlooked factor is the extremely low volume of trading. Granted, this wouldn't cause a market correction, but it sure would exacerbate one (along with all of the other factors you mention).
    Interesting, as you say, that there seems to be so much reaching to justify where this market has gone in such a short time (and without much underlying support for it being there). Are these cheerleaders trying to convince mom and pop, who have no money for stocks anyway, or themselves ?
    Jul 3, 2014. 08:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GDP contracted 2.9% [View news story]
    bbro,
    you chose an extreme, so I chose an extreme. Under more normal conditions (i.e No Fed interference & gov't cheerleading to show growth that's not there), one might think about shorting this market. Since it LOOKS (can't tell any more with this environment) like The Fed's hands will become more tied as this continues, the inflated P/E of most stocks (assisted by a lot of share buybacks, not increased revenues) is not justified. Running for the hills ? No. Checking out the gps to see where the hills are ? Yeah
    Jun 25, 2014. 10:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GDP contracted 2.9% [View news story]
    bbro,

    So I take it you're extremely pleased with these numbers and will continue to buy stocks hand over fist because they're so cheap ?
    Jun 25, 2014. 09:35 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Awareness Of Inflation, But No Fear Yet [View article]
    The Fed and most other major central banks do all they can to cause inflation, claiming they can "control it" once it starts happening (good luck!), and now that it's here no one (excluding those paying attention :)) wants to acknowledge it. If this isn't the farce of the century then I don't know what is. I have this funny feeling that history (say, 50 to 100 years from now) is going to look at this episode and reach conclusions that few people now are espousing.
    Jun 25, 2014. 09:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Summary Of My Post-CPI Comments [View article]
    Yes, agreed- great article ! Nobody does inflation better on SA !
    And who, perchance, do we have to thank for this inflation (you get two guesses)?
    Jun 17, 2014. 03:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Federal Reserve To Lower Growth Forecasts? [View article]
    So The Fed basicallly just paid over $4T to buy, perhaps, 2% gdp growth (quite possibly less) ? And get capacity utilization back to 2% below it's previous peak ? And get wages back to stagnant (or maybe worse) ? And the market believes this is worthy of all-time highs ?
    Jun 17, 2014. 09:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Timing Is Everything [View article]
    Eric,
    Thanks for sharing your thoughts. I find it interesting that so many people seem to have the same outlook as you- that the market is due for a drop, possibly a huge drop, but they continue to have their portfolios primarily in stocks because they think they can exit the market at just the right time (and besides, there's nowhere else to make any money). Obviously, this plan has worked for the past however long this artificial Bull has been running (and it DOES seem to be endless), leading more and more investors into the market (and on margin, no less). This is, IMO, what sets the scenario for such a large downside move, and the higher it goes (and the more actual economic fundamentals break down) the greater the gap with reality. Just hope you actually are the smartest 1% in Lake Wobegon. :)
    Jun 6, 2014. 08:09 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Watch Out For The Buyback Taper [View article]
    Companies are have been buying back shares at such a high clip for 3 basic reasons- 1. They can raise funds at extremely low historical rates 2. The Fed has supplied tons of money with no place else to go 3. Companies have no need to expand Capex at this point because global demand is actually contracting, not expanding. These are the kinds of purchases that people come to regret in hindsight.
    Jun 5, 2014. 09:02 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Watch Out For The Buyback Taper [View article]
    Daniel,

    Thanks for a well-researched article, really informative and supported by the numbers.
    Regarding M&A, one other reason for Companies to look in this direction is to avoid taxes- especially on foreign earnings (not that anyone will say it, though)
    Jun 4, 2014. 12:32 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Goldman Sachs: Fear Not - The Economy Is Just Fine [View article]
    Typical GS bs. "Take the cannolis, leave the gun."
    May 2, 2014. 08:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Jobless Claims 344K [View news story]
    No worries, QEXII is right around the corner ! This market is cheap, cheap, cheap !
    May 1, 2014. 09:17 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GDP edges up 0.1% [View news story]
    Or ever...!
    Apr 30, 2014. 08:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Home Builders Hit With 'Truman Show' Housing Recovery [View article]
    Aaron,
    Nice piece, hope you don't get flagged for borderline angry language !
    One other thing to consider: it's not just housing that's vulnerable due to The Fed's pullout but all of the other asset classes as well. If the business model is to beat the other guy out the door, then we should expect to see some real chaos all around.
    Apr 30, 2014. 08:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Mergers And Acquisitions Activity In The News: Has CEO Confidence Picked Up? [View article]
    John,
    I am a regular reader of your column on SA and always appreciate your analysis, especially where banks are concerned. However, this time you've lost me with your conclusion.
    It seems intrinsically contradictory that the pickup in M&A activity and, perhaps, CEO confidence is a major positive when those very same mergers do not add to economic productivity and, in fact, will more likely cause more layoffs. In addition, isn't it possible that this perceived increase in CEO confidence is perhaps nothing more than an inability to increase growth organically ? All of this free money being thrown around (Microsoft needs to raise $$$ through the market??? Why, other than the fact that it's really cheap?) needs to land some place (M&A, stock buybacks being just 2 examples), but we shouldn't be confusing financial engineering with real productivity and long-term economic health.
    Apr 28, 2014. 02:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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