Seeking Alpha

theyenguy

theyenguy
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View theyenguy's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • Turning Bullish On Bonds [View article]
    On Monday, May 5, 2014, the chart of the 10 Year US Government Note, TLT, manifested a dark cloud covering candlestick, and traded lower, after having risen parabolically higher. suggesting a reversal lower from its rally high is imminent.

    Trust in the US Fed’s purchases of 30 Year US Government Bonds, EDV, Ten Year Notes, TLT, and Mortgage Backed Bonds, MBB, has increased the supply of money needed to provide investment liquidity, and to produce economic growth. Peak Wealth has been achieved; it came via an awesome moral hazard based prosperity. Now, the investor’s risk appetite has turned to risk aversion, as investors fear that the Fed’s monetary policies have crossed the rubicon on sound monetary policy, and have made money good investments bad.

    It’s Global ZIRP no more. The bond vigilantes are in control of interest rates globally, and will be calling the Interest Rate on the US Ten Year Note, $TNX, higher from 2.6%, as well as steepening the 10 30 US Sovereign Debt Yield Curve, $TNX:$TYX, seen in the Steepner ETF, STPP, steepening.

    The world has attained peak wealth. Successful investing in the Pursuit of Yield Investments, such as PHO, GRID, PSP, IST, DBU, DRW, PGF, PUI, and the High Yielding Debt Investments, such as JNK, is history. The greatest investment gains came from those invested in Proshares 200% ETFs, and Direxions 300% ETFs.

    The age of buy and hold investing is over, through finished and done. Profitable investing in Consumer Services, IYC, such as NFLX, TWC, CRWN, LBTYA, DTV, DISH, CMCSA, CHTR, and SATS, is history. One could begin a short selling strategy and use these Inverse Market ETFs as collateral in a brokerage account: STPP, XVZ, GLD, EUO, YCS, CMD, DNO, MLPS, OFF, SBB, SBM, EFZ, YXI, SZK, SDP, KRS, REK, DDG, MYY, EUM, HDGE, SAGG, DTYS, JGBS.

    Not only will the High Yield Debt Instruments, such as Junk Bonds, JNK, be trading lower, but the Zeroes, ZROS, the 30 Year US Government Bonds, EDV, and the 10 Year US Government Notes, TLT, as well. Yes all Credit Investments will be trading lower in a see saw destruction of fiat wealth.

    With the failure of credit, seen in China, YAO, ECNS, Russia, RSX, ERUS, and the US Small Caps, IWM, IWC, and Commodities, DBC, trading lower, and these being going through the tipping point, authoritarianism is the new normal, and features the sovereignty of the Beast Regime of regional governance and totalitarian collectivism, which provides policies of diktat and schemes of debt servitude in diktat money, where the debt serf is the centerpiece of economic activity.
    May 7, 2014. 01:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The VIX Calling A Top? [View article]
    A see saw destruction of credit investments and stock investments commenced in March 2014, as the Interest Rate on the US 10 Year Note, rose to 2.75%. The 10 30 US Sovereign Debt Yield Curve, $TNX:$TYX, will continue steepening, seen in the Steepner ETF, STPP, steepening.

    The age of buy and hold investing is over. Both Credit investments, AGG, and equity investments, VT, traded lower in March 2014, on debt deflation, seen in International Treasury Bonds, PICB, and World Treasury Bonds, PICB, trading parabolically lower, as competitive currency devaluation picking up steam as is seen in Major World Currencies, DBV, and Emerging Market Currencies, CEW, trading lower in value. At the end of the week, on Friday March 21, 2013, Sectors Biotechnology, IBB, led by BIIB, REGN, ILMN, GILD, CELG, and AMGN, Solar Energy, TAN, and Pharmaceuticals, PJP and Yield Bearing Sector Leveraged Buyouts, PSP, traded lower and Nations, Greece, GREK, and the National Bank of Greece, NBG, traded lower, commencing the Great Bear Market Selloff which has commenced Great Depression II on the exhaustion of the world central banks’ monetary authority.
    Mar 23, 2014. 09:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Italy Trumps Greece [View article]
    Commodities, DBC, and USCI, traded lower, as Precious Metals, JJP, traded lower, as Gold, GLD, fell through a consolidation triangle, and Silver, SLV, traded sharply lower. Spot gold, $GOLD, traded lower to $1,705; support is lower at $1,680 and $1665; support for GLD is 162. Oil, USO, traded lower; and Unleaded Gas, UGA, fell sharply lower. Natural Gas, UNG, fell to support, and its chart looks like it could break sharply lower. Bespoke Investment Group reports Gasoline inventories soar by most in more than 10 years. Base Metals, DBB, traded lower; Copper, JJC, a measure of the Shadow Banking System in China, traded lower. Timber, CUT, traded to a new high.

    Total Bonds, BND, traded up to a new high of 84.99, before closing lower this week at 84.81. Peak Debt is being attained.

    The Dollar, $USD, UUP, has traded lower over the years since its peak in 2002, on US Central Bank credit liquidity and easing, until it recently rose from $79.00 on September 14, 2012, and is now trading at its 50 day moving average, at $80.42, as the Euro, FXE, rose to a new rally high of 129.99, pushing the Swiss Franc, FXF, to a triple top high of 106.24, before the Euro, traded lower to 128.26. The chart of the world major currencies, DBV, shows that they jumped to a new high of 26.02, and the chart of emerging market currencies, CEW, shows they are approaching their Sept. 14, 2012, high.

    The world has passed through Peak Monetization. Generally speaking individual currencies globally are failing to rise higher on debt monetization, that is currency debauchery of the world central banks neoliberal finance. The world is passing through Peak Monetization, meaning that the world central banks are unable to stimulate further global growth and corporate profitability. Debt monetization is no longer able to leverage World Stocks, VT, higher.

    The Euro currency, FXE, has peaked out. Monetizing of debt is one of two factors that caused the Euro, FXE, to peak out and trade lower this week; and as result Italy, EWI, and Spain, EWP, traded lower from their rally high and both the European Financials, EUFN, and the European Shares, VGK, manifested bearish harami candlesticks, at the top of ascending wedges, suggesting that the rally in these shares is now complete. The other factor for that caused the Euro to peak out and trade lower, is an ongoing political leadership crisis in both Italy, and in Europe as a whole.

    Tje week’s rally and fall in the Euro, FXE, rose to a new rally high of 129.9, before trading lower to 128.2, stimulated Peak Currency and Peak Credit. Of note, Peak Stock Wealth, occurred September 14, 2012 as world stocks, VT, topped out.

    The high in the S&P of 1,465 was attained September 14, 2012, and the recent downturn to 1,412 on October 31, 2102 to 1,412, and rally to 1,418, in front on next week's Fed meeting is a rally hig,h on the exhaustion of the ECB’s and US Fed’s monetary authority.

    The Fiat Money System was replaced by The Diktat Money System on December 7, 2012, as the Euro, FXE, traded below 1.30. The failure of neoliberalism’s seigniorage, that is moneyness, has introducing the Age of Austerity and the Age of Debt Servitude, where people will come to trust in the Diktat Money System, where diktat serves as currency, credit, and wealth, as exemplified in Egypt, EGPT, and Argentina, ARGT.
    Dec 11, 2012. 03:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Italian Politics Hit The Euro; Support At $1.2880 To Pause Sell-Off? [View article]
    During the week endind December 7, 2012, the Shanghai Shares, $SSEC, traded by CAF, which had been performing very poorly ever since QE1 was introduce, rose 4.1% this week, largely on a rising Yuan, CYB.

    Commodities, DBC, and USCI, traded lower, as Precious Metals, JJP, traded lower, as Gold, GLD, fell through a consolidation triangle, and Silver, SLV, traded sharply lower. Spot gold, $GOLD, traded lower to $1,705; support is lower at $1,680 and $1665; support for GLD is 162. Oil, USO, traded lower; and Unleaded Gas, UGA, fell sharply lower. Natural Gas, UNG, fell to support, and its chart looks like it could break sharply lower. Bespoke Investment Group reports Gasoline inventories soar by most in more than 10 years. Base Metals, DBB, traded lower; Copper, JJC, a measure of the Shadow Banking System in China, traded lower. Timber, CUT, traded to a new high.

    Total Bonds, BND, traded up to a new high of 84.99, before closing lower this week at 84.81. Peak Debt is being attained.

    The Dollar, $USD, UUP, has traded lower over the years since its peak in 2002, on US Central Bank credit liquidity and easing, until it recently rose from $79.00 on September 14, 2012, and is now trading at its 50 day moving average, at $80.42, as the Euro, FXE, rose to a new rally high of 129.99, pushing the Swiss Franc, FXF, to a triple top high of 106.24, before the Euro, traded lower to 128.26. The chart of the world major currencies, DBV, shows that they jumped to a new high of 26.02, and the chart of emerging market currencies, CEW, shows they are approaching their Sept. 14, 2012, high.

    The world has passed through Peak Monetization. Generally speaking individual currencies globally are failing to rise higher on debt monetization, that is currency debauchery of the world central banks neoliberal finance. The world is passing through Peak Monetization, meaning that the world central banks are unable to stimulate further global growth and corporate profitability. Debt monetization is no longer able to leverage World Stocks, VT, higher.

    The Euro currency, FXE, has peaked out. Monetizing of debt is one of two factors that caused the Euro, FXE, to peak out and trade lower this week; and as result Italy, EWI, and Spain, EWP, traded lower from their rally high and both the European Financials, EUFN, and the European Shares, VGK, manifested bearish harami candlesticks, at the top of ascending wedges, suggesting that the rally in these shares is now complete. The other factor for that caused the Euro to peak out and trade lower, is an ongoing political leadership crisis in both Italy, and in Europe as a whole.

    Tje week’s rally and fall in the Euro, FXE, rose to a new rally high of 129.9, before trading lower to 128.2, stimulated Peak Currency and Peak Credit. Of note, Peak Stock Wealth, occurred September 14, 2012 as world stocks, VT, topped out.

    The high in the S&P of 1,465 was attained September 14, 2012, and the recent downturn to 1,412 on October 31, 2102 to 1,412, and rally to 1,418, in front on next week's Fed meeting is a rally hig,h on the exhaustion of the ECB’s and US Fed’s monetary authority.

    The Fiat Money System was replaced by The Diktat Money System on December 7, 2012, as the Euro, FXE, traded below 1.30. The failure of neoliberalism’s seigniorage, that is moneyness, has introducing the Age of Austerity and the Age of Debt Servitude, where people will come to trust in the Diktat Money System, where diktat serves as currency, credit, and wealth, as exemplified in Egypt, EGPT, and Argentina, ARGT.
    Dec 11, 2012. 03:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Big Changes In Relative Strength [View article]
    The sector change out of Utilities, XLU, communicates that the flight to safety in US Stocks, not only the defensive dividend payers, is over.

    We are witnessing a speculative rally at the hands of the investment bankers who have pushed for a grand finale rally at the beginning of the earnings season in the risk trade, COPX, KOL, KRE, XME, MXI, the growth trade, XSD, the safe trade, ITB, and the life sciences trade, XBI.

    Fears of debt contagion, not greed, or speculation, will be driving all stocks, currencies, and bonds lower. The spigots of investment liquidity, carry trade lending and central bank easing have been turned off; and former flows are now running toxic.

    We are witnessing a zombification rally. Zombified banks and zombified growth and risk assets rose from Neoliberalism’s grave.

    Most assuredly Milton Friedman and his Free To Choose Banker regime are dead and gone. Authoritarian leaders are rising to Mr. Friedman. Investment capital is being destroyed by disinvestment out of stocks, and deleveraging out of commodities. Investment capital is being replaced by political capital. The dynamo of freedom that governed for the last forty years is history. The dynamo of diktat governs the political and economic world.

    Please consider that In a world of failed currencies, possession of gold bullion will prove to be the best performing and safest investment.
    Jan 12, 2012. 06:32 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Individual Investor Sentiment At Highest Levels Since February [View article]
    Perhaps the Investors Sentiment is base upon the rally in a number of Dollar Stocks.

    But, on going currency debasement by the world central banks has finally had a major consequence. Today, June 5, 2011, was a pivotal day in financial history, as all forms of fiat wealth, that is currencies, stocks, commodities, and bonds, turned lower in value, while the chart of the gold ETF, GLD, shows an increased in value. Bad central bank credit policies have destabilized all fiat financial instruments, especially global financials, IXG, and world treasury bonds, BWX. Diktat is rising as a form of money, which is driving the world into regionalization for security and stability. A Global Eurasia war will be waged in Syria and Iran.

    Fears of sovereign insolvency and banking insolvency turned currencies, stocks, commodities, and bonds lower today.

    World Currencies and Emerging Market Currencies traded lower.

    The trade lower in Germany’s Deutsche Bank, and Spain’s Banco Santander, lead European Financials, lower, which turned World Financials, lower. Spain, Italy, and lead Europe, lower.

    Falling currencies turned the world’s mining stocks and the world’s mining and steel ETFs lower. Energy stocks also turned lower today. Natural resource investing became more unprofitable due to falling currency values. Debt deflation and exhaustion of central bank credit, is causing an unwinding of carry trade investment and stimulating derisking out of natural resource stocks worldwide.

    It is the world central banks’ bad credit policies that are making money bad. Bad money is destabilizing the world economically and politically. We are witnessing the beginning of the end of the AAA era. Richard Russell, publisher of Dow Theory Letters said in King World News interview, We are watching the greatest debt bubble in history about to deflate, and it won't be a pretty sighThe investment, political and economic tectonic plates are shifting, and an authoritarian tsunami is on the way.

    Seigniorage, that is moneyness, will no longer come from banking and national governments, but rather come from the diktat of regional sovereigns. Currencies are now sinking, and global financial derisking and deleveraging is underway, with the result that the new dynamo of diktat is driving economic and political action. Political capital is replacing investment capital. The seigniorage of fiat money, is being replaced by the seigniorage of diktat.

    With the death of fiat money, regional global governance is rising to replace sovereign nation states, as nations loose their debt sovereignty. Life in the Euro zone will be characterised by collectivism, as statism rises to govern all.

    The only way to preserve wealth is to buy and take possession of gold bullion.
    Jan 6, 2012. 08:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • European Banks Lead Stocks Lower As Angela Merkel Works In Leaders Summit For The United Europe Of Germany [View instapost]
    You relate, The reality here is that Germany is imposing austerity and fiscal discipline on the rest of Europe, and non-Germans may not necessarily like it.

    Yes, how true. Fate is passing the baton of sovereingnty to the the EU ECB IMF Troika, and Germany together with Herman Van Rompuy and Mario Draghi, will spearhead a economic, political and banking coup de etat to create a Federal Europe.

    Its goodbye to fiat wealth, only physical possession of gold and the mandates of diktat will be worth anything in the soon coming New Europe.
    Dec 20, 2011. 11:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Aussie Dollar As Gateway To Commodities Super Cycle [View article]
    Mr. Dorsch thanks for providing the the valuable insight that Australia's mining boom is largely fueled by Chinese demand, which has kept Australia's economy out of recession for the past 20-years.

    Australia’s mining boom came largely via the wildcat finance of Neoliberalism. Yet, now the global investment, economic and political tectonic policies of Neoliberalism have shifted with the result that an authoritarian tsunami, as well as a credit and banking collapse is underway, and is underwritten by competitive currency deflation, as is seen in the world currencies, and emerging market currencies falling precipitously beginning in August 2011, accompanied by a rise in the US Dollar in Septemeber 2011.

    You relate that Chinese steel output fell to 56.7-million tons in September, falling from a record high of 60.2-million tons in May. Although output in September was still +16.5% higher than the same period of last year, traders in Shanghai figure that steel output has reached a peak and expect further declines in the fourth quarter, normally a peak demand period, with steel mills impacted by a slowdown in the global economy as well as domestically. And Mr. Dorsch provides the chart of spot price of iron ore showing a terrific tumble.

    Inflation Destruction is now underway. It is the fall in investment value that accompanies derisking and deleveraging out of investments that were formerly inflated by money flows to, and carry trade investing in, high interest paying financial institutions, profitable natural resource companies, and high growth companies. Inflation destruction commenced in Brazil Financials, BRAF, and in the high growth Chinese Small Caps, HAO, in November 2010, and in China Materials, CHIM, in May 2011. Inflation destruction begets more of the same as former vigilant investors turn short sellers, and carry out their attack on their former investment, by going short the 200% ETFs, such as XPP, YINN and UYM, MATL.

    Inflation destruction took its toll on Australia, EWA, in May 2011, and then currency deflation took its toll in August, as currency traders commenced global competitive currency devaluation in August 2011.

    On Friday October 21, 2011, World stocks, ACWI, and World Small Cap Stocks, VSS, rose early in the day as the Basic Materials, CHIM, TSXV, URA, EMMT, XLB, IYM, and MXI, led by Copper Miners, COPX, and Aluminum, ALUM, rallied from their sharp downturn; this caused a 2% rise in Australia shares, but nevertheless, these were down 1% for the week. Clearly the chart action in the Australian shares is bearish.

    Bloomberg reports China Stocks Drop for Biggest Weekly Loss in Five Months; PetroChina Falls. China’s stocks fell, capping the benchmark index’s steepest weekly drop in five months, on speculation slowing economic growth and the nation’s tighter monetary policies are hurting earnings. Petro China, PTR, slid to a one month low as the nation’s largest oil producer said it may have a 2011 refining loss of over 50 billion yuan. Yanzhou Coal Mining, YZC, led declines for coal producers. “China’s economic slowdown will hurt companies’ earnings in the fourth quarter and next year,” said Mei Luwu, a fund manager at Lion Fund Management Co. in Shenzhen. The Shanghai Composite Index, CAF, slumped, extending this week’s slump to 4.7 percent, the most since the week ended May 27.

    The chart of the Australian Dollar, FXA, shows what may turn out to be an evening star, suggesting further depreciation.

    The seigniorage, the moneyness, of credit and currencies is failing. The seigniorage of Neoliberalism, the Milton Friedman Free To Choose floating currency regime, has been based upon credit, that is a lending, securitization of stocks, US Federal Reserve quantitative easing, and ZIRP, rising world currencies, and rising emerging market currencies.

    Two other words for credit are trust and faith. All of these have been evaporating with the exhaustion of Quantitative Easing, the worsening of the European Sovereign Debt Crisis, and unwinding carry trade investing, as seen in the Optimized Carry ETN, ICI, falling lower. The triune bedrock Neoliberalism, consisting of US Federal Reserve Policy, European Socialism, and carry trade lending from the Bank of Japan, has given way.

    William L. Watts and Deborah Levine of MarketWatch report Boris Schlossberg, director of currency research at GFT, as saying The risk rally is definitely running out of steam as high-beta currencies ran into their second straight day of liquidation sparked by weaker-than-expected GDP readings from China and continuing uncertainty over the efficacy of policy solutions that will be presented at an upcoming EU summit on the sovereign debt crisis.

    Systemic risk is now apparent in as much as leadership gridlock has developed over resolution over the European Sovereign Debt Crisis and fears of debt monetization arisen. Currency traders are derisking once again out of the Australian Dollar, FXA, and its popular carry trade pair, as is seen in the chart of FXA:FXY, in response to concerns over decreasing growth and contracting credit in China.

    Sovereign Armageddon, is a credit bust and global financial breakdown, is coming. It will be accompanied with a continuing contraction of credit in China, YAO, as reflected in ongoing falling in the commodity copper, JJC, China Materials, CHIM, China Financials, CHIX, and China Industrials, CHII, as well as the Shanghai Shares, CAF. These are all turning lower again, as is seen in this ongoing Yahoo chart of CHIM, CHXX, CHIX, CAF as Bloomberg reports China's Stocks Fall to 31-Month Low on Economic Slowdown, Europe.

    The mining kings of the Age of Leverage have fallen. The king of copper and gold mining Freeport McMoran Copper and Gold, FCX, has fallen. The king of copper Southern Peru Copper, SCCO, has fallen. The kings of iron ore Rio Tinto, RIO, Vale, VALE, BHP Billiton, BHP, and Cliff Natural Resources, CLF, have fallen. Bloomberg reports Iron Ore's Worst Rout in 15 Months Seen Deepening as China's Growth Slows. Iron ore’s biggest decline in 15 months may worsen as the economy slows in China, the largest importer, the European debt crisis persists and BHP Billiton Ltd and Rio Tinto Group increase production, analysts said.

    The seigniorage of fiat wealth in stocks, bonds, and currencies failed, in April 2011, and in July 2011, as is seen in the ratio of world stocks, ACWI, relative to world government bonds, BWX, ACWI:BWX, turning lower and is now turning lower again. The Seigniorage of Chinese Financials is dependent to some degree upon copper; and the failure of the seigniorage of the Chinese Financials is seen in the ratio of two, CHIX:JJC, turning lower in July 2010 and November 2010. That ratio, one a weekly basis, has manifesting the lollipop hanging man candlestick, heralding a turn lower soon as well.

    Seigniorage, that is moneyness, is no longer coming from the securitization of debt; nor is seigniorage coming from investing in industrial metals, whether it be iron, copper, or silver. The seigniorage of growth has failed.

    Neoliberalism is being replaced by Neoauthoritarianism, and with it comes the seigniorage of diktat, ushering in structural reforms, austerity measures, and yesm debt servitude. Wealth can no longer be garnered or maintained with fiat assets. True wealth, that is sovereign wealth will soon consist of possession of gold bullion, and be marked by the authority of sovereign rulers.
    Oct 23, 2011. 07:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Boom In Federal Finance … Bubbles Annaly Capital Management To A New All Time High [View instapost]
    Yahoo Finance shows the following prices for NLY the period in question.
    Dec 15, 2010 18.15 18.15 17.78 17.82 19,378,900 16.61
    Dec 14, 2010 18.26 18.37 18.14 18.21 9,186,100 16.97
    Dec 13, 2010 18.21 18.30 18.12 18.22 9,416,000 16.98
    Dec 10, 2010 17.99 18.20 17.96 18.11 7,745,900 16.88
    Dec 9, 2010 17.90 18.01 17.80 17.93 16,464,000 16.71
    Dec 8, 2010 18.11 18.12 17.86 17.89 15,354,100 16.67
    Dec 7, 2010 18.24 18.25 18.11 18.12 12,414,700 16.89

    Can I send you a bill for my research time showing my article to be correct?
    Apr 25, 2011. 05:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buffett's Hunt for the Next Elephant: 13 Potential Big Game Stocks [View article]
    I must relate that in an Inflation Destruction and Debt Deflation Bear Market there are no Elephants to bag.

    You relate On Friday, February 25, the company paid $0.50 per share in dividends. The opportune time to sell this stock short was on Tuesday March 8, 2011 at a price of 62.44 as the stock market entered a bear market down turn on February 22, 2011.

    The chart ... tinyurl.com/48yv4sw shows .... that this stock entered an Elliott Wave 3 Down today; it is in the prime short selling phase. Given the fact that it has a PE of 34 means that it has a long fall to a more reasonable PE.

    I am always amazed, amused, and also very troubled by analysts who recommend buying stocks at market peaks.
    Mar 10, 2011. 11:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • An Ugly Breakup -- A Look at the Relationship Between Oil and Stocks [View article]
    The chart of Oil, USO, shows that investors, knowing that when a central bank monetizes debt, commodity price inflation follows. Ben Bernanke’s quantitative easing policy has given seigniorage to oil as a globally sovereign currency, as the price of West Texas Intermediate Crude, $WTIC, has risen from 72.5 to over $100 since QE 2 was first announce in Jackson Hole in August 2010.

    Failure of the economic and political paradigm of Neoliberalism occurred, February 22, 2011, as seigniorage failed, with the downturn in distressed securities, like those held in FAGIX, which caused the stock market, ACWI, to turn lower.

    Quantitative Easing 1 and 2 have resulting in an explosion of commodity prices, stimulating social revolutions in Middle East, MES, and African, AFK, countries, which have driven oil prices, USO, to the Septemeber 2008 level, and which have in turn, caused inflation destruction, turning down stocks prices, and creating a loss of seigniorage, that is moneyness.

    Urban Dictionary defines inflation destruction as the fall in investment value that accompanies derisking and deleveraging out of investments that were formerly inflated by money flows to, and carry trade investing in, high interest paying financial institutions, profitable natural resource companies, and high growth companies.

    On March 4, 2011, with oil moving above $103, world stocks, ACWI, succumbed to inflation destruction, and traded 0.8% lower to 48.71.

    The chart of world stocks monthly, ACWI Monthly, shows that an Elliott Wave 3 Down commenced in stocks globally on February, 18, 2010 from a high of 49.24.

    The chart of the S&P Weekly, SPY Weekly, shows that an Elliott Wave 3 Down has commenced in the S&P, the week ending February 18, 2010, when SPY fell from 134.53.

    The turning down of Banks, KBE, means that the world has passed through an inflection point. The world has passed from the Age of Leverage and into the Age of Deleveraging with the exhaustion of Quantitative Easing and with the failure of yen carry trade investing, as seen in the failure of the Optimized Carry ETN, ICI, on the very day that QE 2 was announced.

    Evidence of failure of seigniorage also comes from the Jody Shenn Bloomberg report: “Securities backed by option adjustable-rate mortgages, the home loans that allow borrowers to decide how much they pay each month, dropped for a second week as investors speculated a rally pushed values too high. Typical prices for the senior-most option-ARM bonds fell as much as 4 cents to about 62 cents on the dollar, according to Barclays Capital”.

    Neoliberalism failed February 22, 2011, as seigniorage failed with the downturn in distressed securities, like those held in FAGIX, which caused the stock market, ACWI, to turn lower.

    The Great Bull Market which came through carry trade lending and Quantitative Easing 1 and 2 is history. The short, medium, and long term trend is down. Those who are advising their clients to stay invested long, are doing them a dis-service, as they have cut them off from a profitable short opportunity. Clearly an investment demand for gold has arisen and will remain strong. Wealth can only be preserved by investing in and taking possession of gold, GLD, and silver, SLV, bullion.
    Mar 6, 2011. 12:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Following today's ECB presser, veteran observers have no doubt - a 25 basis point hike is coming in April. It's beginning of the end of a remarkable period of monetary ease in which central bankers papered over the last bust, but hopefully have not sown the seeds of the next one.  [View news story]
    Will a interest rate hike exasperate the sovereign debt crisis?
    Mar 4, 2011. 12:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Offering a contrary view on the consensus that the ECB is about to hike, Dave Kansas says it's hard to believe the bank has changed into a hawkish outfit all of a sudden. Hiking in the face of solid growth, growing inflation, and PMI price indices (pdf) off the charts isn't exactly hawkish. It's just facing reality.  [View news story]
    I ask a question, If the ECB raises the interest rate will this exasperate the sovereign debt crisis?
    Mar 4, 2011. 12:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • First Trading Day of the Month: Another 1% Gain? [View article]
    I relate that the exhaustion of The Central Bank’s seigniorage came on February 22, 2011, as is seen in distressed securities, FAGIX, failing to rise higher, which decreased demand for stocks, ACWI.

    With the failure of the US Central bank’s seigniorage, risk appetite has turned to risk avoidance and the bear market of all bear markets commenced on February 22, 2011.

    The rise in stocks on February 28, 2011 manifested as a short selling opportunity. And as stocks are likely to rise on the morning of March 1, 2011, there is likely going to be yet another short selling opportunity. In a bear market one sells into strength, and in a bull market one buys into weakness.

    The chart of the transportation shares, IYT, communicates they are damaged beyond repair and that they will not be available to help drive the market higher; and as a result the stock market will be turning lower. Confirmation comes from the three black crows in Genesee and Wyoming Railroad, GWR as well as the topping out in Air Transport Services Group, ATSG.

    Inflation Destruction is now making its first appearance. Urban Dictionary relates Inflation Destruction is the fall in investment value that accompanies derisking and deleveraging out of investments that were formerly inflated by money flows to, and carry trade investing in, high interest paying financial institutions, profitable natural resource companies, and high growth companies.

    Ben Bernanke’s quantitative easing has exhausted, as is seen in its seigniorage of distressed securities, FAGIX, turning lower. The failure of Quantitative Easing is seen in that a bear stock market commenced February 22, 2011 with a number of sectors such as Solar, KWT, leading the charge lower.

    The currency leverage curve, that is the ratio of the small cap pure value shares, relative to the small cap pure growth shares, RZV:RZG, manifested a lollipop hanging man candlestick, signaling a currency will fall lower, or a number of currencies are going to fall lower. I have no crystal ball and cannot tell you if the US Dollar, $USD, will be one of these currencies. Only the currency traders know what they will sell next.
    Mar 1, 2011. 09:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Valuations for Five Major Banks With Bearish Warnings [View article]
    I have to agree with your bearsih assessment of the market and the bank stocks. Wells Fargo, WFC, tinyurl.com/4fsy42e has aleready started to fall lower.
    Feb 22, 2011. 01:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
160 Comments
104 Likes