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  • Arch Coal - Bond Exchange Is A Win-Win [View article]
    I didn't say Chp7, I said it will be more like a 7 because there will be a substantial amount of liquidation taking place because they don't have money to pay secured lenders. Will they come back? Maybe. I don't think it's certain at all. Same applies to ANR.
    Jul 22, 2015. 09:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arch Coal - Bond Exchange Is A Win-Win [View article]
    Given WLT bankruptcy news and their current financial condition, their Chp11 will be more like a 7. I'm hearing ANR will file within the next 4-8 weeks (but I believe that is an educated guess more than real knowledge). Those 2 account for ~20% of the met supply and with that inventory offline for a while that could give quite the boost to ACI while the B/Ks play out. ACI filing this summer is ridiculous given their cash position/ maturity deadlines and as I mentioned in an earlier post, that there is a tender on existing debt means to me that there is a much larger debt swap/roll out in play including the term loan. With competitors dropping all around them, that is only a benefit for ACI. JMO
    Jul 16, 2015. 03:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arch Coal - Bond Exchange Is A Win-Win [View article]
    If you are a small stake bondholder (Less than say 500k in face) then why tender? The tender, IMO, was meant for larger holders to roll into a move viable vehicle and have a chance at getting more of their money back. As was mentioned, the lowered interest expense gets ACI near CF positive. Any pricing power (as we've seen w PRB) or cost reductions go right to the bottom line and only helps the financial health. I also think this tender means that an extension of the 2018 term loan is done (otherwise why do thru a tender offer?). With an extension of the term loan the 19s and 20s will surely be paid. You can buy the 9.875% 2019s (Only $375M face) for 18c (~52% current yield) meaning by June 2017 you have recouped your entire investment. 2 more years to maturity and you've made 100% profit, & with principal repayment add an additional 500+% to that. That's incredible upside for very very little downside IMO. Finally, (and I was literally just told this) there's a change on control "put" that would allow holders to put the bonds back to Arch at Par if the company is sold including to current management. Yet, folks continue to sell. All of that said, I'd be buying bonds over common, but at 32c the risk reward is strong as well. Re: BTU it is in nowhere near as bad of shape as ACI or ANR (which will go BK this year IMO). My 2c.
    Jul 9, 2015. 04:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Report: California oil spill gushed like "hose without a nozzle" [View news story]
    This is nitpicking at its finest. The stock is down 15% since the accident and with their insurance won't cost the company much of anything. Certainly not a few billion worth of market cap.
    Jun 26, 2015. 11:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Peabody Energy, Cloud Peak sink on negative Goldman Sachs view [View news story]
    Agree, plus coal demand is actually growing internationally and one could argue that much of the demand destruction in US is already done.
    Jun 3, 2015. 09:40 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peabody Energy, Cloud Peak sink on negative Goldman Sachs view [View news story]
    BTU will survive as will ACI IMO. ANR is toast with Wyoming saying they no longer qualify for self-bonding. I look for them to pull an accounting trick or two to stay that execution, but I think they will be BK within 12-15mths if not less. Given their debt and negative CF they will be forced to liquidate assets. Won't be much left after that.

    BTU's 2018 bonds look incredible in the high 60s. They are easily covering interest pmts with EBITDA. Any pricing improvements go straight to the bottom line. Global demand is still growing.
    Jun 1, 2015. 06:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Avoid Plains All American For Now [View article]
    Panic much? To say the spill adds "considerable downside risk" is hyperbole at its finest. Let's not forget the stock is already down ~6% from the news. This is one of the best run MLPs in existence. Relax.
    May 29, 2015. 12:08 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arch Coal, Alpha Natural lag coal industry in dire straits, Credit Suisse says [View news story]
    Their 2018 bond looks pretty sweet IMO. 15.5% YTM
    May 27, 2015. 03:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arch Coal, Alpha Natural lag coal industry in dire straits, Credit Suisse says [View news story]
    I know they have been. Its their negative CF situation that is their real problem. They will have extreme difficulty with a new issue. I wouldn't count on that. I think they have 8-12mths left. JMO
    May 27, 2015. 03:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arch Coal, Alpha Natural lag coal industry in dire straits, Credit Suisse says [View news story]
    BTU has a ton of CF freeing up in the next 18mths that will really help them and they are breakeven on a CF basis right now. ACI has a lot of cash and IMO needs to start buying debt in open mkt with so much trading at 20c. That they are dealing with 2020 holders makes me think their 2019 maturities will be ok. Every $1 in cost savings adds $30M in FCF. Leer mine is doing great. ANR's neg CF will likely lead to liquidation vs restructure. Coal still most used in US and imports, esp to India, looking to grow. Ultimately I think ACI survives, but it will be close.
    May 26, 2015. 04:25 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: A Closer Look At LinnCo's 'Dividend' [View article]
    You do realize that MLP distribution taxation works the same way right? Did you think MLP distributions held the tax shield forever? smh
    Apr 23, 2014. 10:15 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Citi - At 6.97%, New Preferreds Are Cheap [View article]
    I avoid common for the pure purpose of divy's. Lots of better choices for pure income. I own very little bank anything anymore - including common. I have a few TruPS that I bought below par that I'm still sitting on, though they'll get called eventually.
    Feb 11, 2014. 08:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Citi - At 6.97%, New Preferreds Are Cheap [View article]
    Really?
    Feb 11, 2014. 08:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Apple Emulate Gold's Plunge? [View article]
    It fell from 705 to 380, so it already had its precipitous decline. The company is a cash machine with 1/3 of its market cap in cash. Take away divy and buybacks last Q and it generated over 50B in FCF. Think about that for a minute. Now add in China Mobile with 750M users and people still think this name is headed back to the 300s? Really?
    Feb 11, 2014. 09:26 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Citi - At 6.97%, New Preferreds Are Cheap [View article]
    That fact alone is enough to keep me away. Plenty of other names, higher in the cap structure and paying monthly are way better choices.
    Feb 7, 2014. 06:25 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
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