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  • Arch Coal, Alpha Natural lag coal industry in dire straits, Credit Suisse says [View news story]
    Their 2018 bond looks pretty sweet IMO. 15.5% YTM
    May 27, 2015. 03:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arch Coal, Alpha Natural lag coal industry in dire straits, Credit Suisse says [View news story]
    I know they have been. Its their negative CF situation that is their real problem. They will have extreme difficulty with a new issue. I wouldn't count on that. I think they have 8-12mths left. JMO
    May 27, 2015. 03:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arch Coal, Alpha Natural lag coal industry in dire straits, Credit Suisse says [View news story]
    BTU has a ton of CF freeing up in the next 18mths that will really help them and they are breakeven on a CF basis right now. ACI has a lot of cash and IMO needs to start buying debt in open mkt with so much trading at 20c. That they are dealing with 2020 holders makes me think their 2019 maturities will be ok. Every $1 in cost savings adds $30M in FCF. Leer mine is doing great. ANR's neg CF will likely lead to liquidation vs restructure. Coal still most used in US and imports, esp to India, looking to grow. Ultimately I think ACI survives, but it will be close.
    May 26, 2015. 04:25 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: A Closer Look At LinnCo's 'Dividend' [View article]
    You do realize that MLP distribution taxation works the same way right? Did you think MLP distributions held the tax shield forever? smh
    Apr 23, 2014. 10:15 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Citi - At 6.97%, New Preferreds Are Cheap [View article]
    I avoid common for the pure purpose of divy's. Lots of better choices for pure income. I own very little bank anything anymore - including common. I have a few TruPS that I bought below par that I'm still sitting on, though they'll get called eventually.
    Feb 11, 2014. 08:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Citi - At 6.97%, New Preferreds Are Cheap [View article]
    Really?
    Feb 11, 2014. 08:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Apple Emulate Gold's Plunge? [View article]
    It fell from 705 to 380, so it already had its precipitous decline. The company is a cash machine with 1/3 of its market cap in cash. Take away divy and buybacks last Q and it generated over 50B in FCF. Think about that for a minute. Now add in China Mobile with 750M users and people still think this name is headed back to the 300s? Really?
    Feb 11, 2014. 09:26 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Citi - At 6.97%, New Preferreds Are Cheap [View article]
    That fact alone is enough to keep me away. Plenty of other names, higher in the cap structure and paying monthly are way better choices.
    Feb 7, 2014. 06:25 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Promising Is The 2014 Outlook For Netflix? A Look In Numbers [View article]
    Wikipedia is a marginal source. I used data from the cable industry, though admittedly ballparked my 90% number. Streaming devices on mobile are a factor, but limited monthly data make that an additional feed for viewing IMO, not a primary one - meaning it will likely be a rounding error. Cord cutting is possible - I think we've probably seen a fair amount of that already (impossible to really say how much), but as the economy starts to struggle we'll see more as some expenses have to be cut. But again, not a meaningful number IMO - at least not now.

    Regarding the content, this is where we really disagree. I've been hearing about improving content for years. Yet to materialize IMO. Almost every time I seek something out it's never on streaming. What about the gigantic amount of off balance sheet debt associated with their content which has risen every quarter for at least the last 2 years and now stands over 7B? You can't think this will abate?Amazon has a long way to go but with Google's Chromecast device, you eliminate a lot of those issues for in-home use.

    My overall point is that NFLX has done a solid job and they provide a service that people want, but is it not priced in here? Is it really possible for them to grow into this number? I don't think they can. Euro and LatAm growth will not be what people think bec the infrastructure is just not there. They've done well in some Scandanavian countries but how much content is there for those folks that they are willing to pay 12-15 euros a month? Finally, I think NFLX will be forced into a price increase here and the marginal sub will drop the service. $8 is cheap enough, but at 12 or even 15 they will drop it. I dropped it bec there was nothing to watch or people sign up for a month, binge a tv show and dump it again. Just some of my thoughts on it.
    Jan 30, 2014. 08:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Promising Is The 2014 Outlook For Netflix? A Look In Numbers [View article]
    What's the basis for your domestic sub growth target number? With new household creation flat (along with the number of high speed internet accounts), domestic growth has to taper off at some point. Their penetration is already far beyond what anyone thought possible, and based off of numbers I've looked at has to be near 90% of all high speed internet accounts.
    Jan 29, 2014. 11:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD Is Set To Plummet [View article]
    Great points made throughout the comments. The one thing I'd add is mgmt's dedication to strengthening the balance sheet and paying down debt. LTD is down from over 5B 3yrs ago to just 2B in the last report. There's a reason the stock is moving higher and it's not purely a short squeeze. I don't think we've seen the squeeze yet. I think a price of $8-$10 is coming.
    Jan 17, 2014. 08:40 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook: Video Ads And Other Reasons To Be Bullish [View article]
    Thats true - but now I use IMDB and other sites as much as possible. Only youtube if I cant avoid it.
    Dec 19, 2013. 02:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook: Video Ads And Other Reasons To Be Bullish [View article]
    Agreed. I think they will see many 30-something leave the site entirely and forget about new teen usage. I hate those ads on YouTube and my usage there is down significantly because of it.
    Dec 17, 2013. 08:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Turns The Screws On AMD [View article]
    All of this talk about AMD yet no one has mentioned the financial turnaround taking place. LT Debt is down from 5.3B a few years ago to just 2.05B today. Cash/Equiv/A-R is 1.95B (80%) with a market cap of 2.45B. Growth in Graphics & Visual Solutions is exploding albeit at a slightly lower level of GM. Also domestic sales are increasing as the semi-custom chip space is really gaining traction. Costs are getting whipped into shape, the company has returned to profitability (can they keep doing it is a legit question), and new RSUs are performance based. The last piece is that sentiment on the name is as bad as it gets and NO ONE wants to own this name. 17% of the float is short (appx 123M shs = 8 days of avg volume). The stock, while up from 2 a year ago, is down from 8.25 in spring of 2012 and 10 in spring of 2010. It's not unreasonable to think this name can double or more, while downside is quite limited as long as they can maintain the business. Of course, everything is based on that.
    Nov 24, 2013. 10:09 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Love Caterpillar [View article]
    First - Ken Hackel who literally wrote the book on securities valuation would thoroughly disagree with you. Just because they are buying doesn't mean its a smart buy or they are smart money. They have motives beyond making money and that they are using investor capital and not their own makes that claim even more legitimate.

    My examples are not aligned with your statement in any way. All I did was offer an alternative POV while making the critique that you make a statement of fact that is most certainly not fact.
    Oct 23, 2013. 04:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
294 Comments
734 Likes