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  • A Closer Look At Plains All American Pipeline's Q3 2015 Distributable Cash Flow  [View article]
    I agree that the GP needs to go, but I don't see equity offerings at this dividend level. They can offer debt, and likely a lot for much less. That said, they have quite a long runway before they "need" to raise any capital. IMO, their capital raises have been about piling up cash to start acquisitions.
    Nov 16, 2015. 12:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Plains All American suffers at least two analyst downgrades  [View news story]
    Plains' big hit is coming from transpo...fewer bpd going from point a to point b and that is what hit their Rev line. Higher crude prices will help this but it's unlikely IMO that we see crude much over 60 in next 2yrs. Many projects will start back up in the mid 50 plus stronger dollar will keep a lid on price for a while.
    Nov 5, 2015. 01:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arch Coal - End Is Coming And It Makes Little Sense  [View article]
    The secured guys definitely want it to fail so they can get the assets on the super cheap. Don't forget they bought the bank loans at a big discount and ACI is so close to being CF+ even with this debt load. Now imagine it with none. You see why they want it. Unsecured folks like me got screwed. No need for ACI to go BK. Mgmt could go buy most of the debt in the open market for 5-10c on the dollar = less than 500M clears almost all of it except the term loan.
    Oct 22, 2015. 10:33 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • WSJ: Arch Coal bond swap will not be protected by court  [View news story]
    Wonder if they will sweeten the deal for the secured holders and if they will take it. Coal isn't going away...IMO this has always been about forcing ACI into BK so the secured holders can get great assets for next to nothing. An analyst I know well thinks ACI beats big this Q.
    Oct 19, 2015. 12:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Look At Coal: Peabody Energy  [View article]
    Hilarious...is Carbon Dioxide now considered a pollutant? You do realize that all plant life requires CO2 to live?
    Oct 9, 2015. 10:31 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arch Coal teeters on the brink as debt swap deadline approaches  [View news story]
    The exchange takes to the CF+ so I'd say that's pretty significant. Every $1 of pricing power or cost savings adds ~30M to their bottom line. Pretty significant. Im not saying they won't eventually go BK, I'm just saying it shouldn't be right now.
    Sep 23, 2015. 08:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Arch Coal teeters on the brink as debt swap deadline approaches  [View news story]
    They were almost CF+ last Q. It's not fait accompli but kudos on the fancy language. The swap extends their life to the maturity of the term loan, which is ~2.5 years. At that point, given the mega money now in the common and unsecured debt, it's not hard to think they can't work their way into getting money to keep going. Coal isn't going anywhere and the secured guys know it. That's why they want to force a BK to get these assets on the super cheap. I still lean to the unsecured creditors winning in court.
    Sep 22, 2015. 09:40 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arch Coal creditor sues lenders for trying to block debt swap  [View news story]
    If the unsecured creditors win in court, then it would make sense to see a ton of short covering, esp given margin cost for ACI is over 100% right now. IMO, the swap extends the life of Arch for 2-3 years and no one wants to be short for that long at that cost. You'll never make a profit. Unsure on how long it takes. I'm looking at options for January just to make sure I have enough time.
    Sep 19, 2015. 12:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Environmentalists challenge major U.S. mines owned by CLD, ACI, BTU  [View news story]
    These fools still think 2015 will be the hottest year on record when its not even close to that. They want to put us back to the stone age where we all live like the Flintstones.
    Sep 18, 2015. 07:29 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Will Happen To Utility Stocks If The Fed Raises Rates?  [View article]
    FWIW, and while it's not 4%, Everbank pays over 1% on checking for the first year and then it bases around 65bps depending on account balance. Check them out and no, I have no connection to them. Forbes has rated them best internet bank for the longest time.
    Sep 18, 2015. 09:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Will Happen To Utility Stocks If The Fed Raises Rates?  [View article]
    The point is people have been OVERselling "rate sensitive" names because they are scared of shrinking NIM, higher borrowing costs, etc. While those may be true, yesterday on CNBC Gundlach said exactly what I said and you want to buy a $100 bill for $85. While there will be NIM compression and some increase in cost of capital, its nothing like the discounts we are currently seeing in many names...esp given the strength of their underlying businesses (like Apartment REITs). My 2c
    Sep 18, 2015. 09:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arch Coal creditor sues lenders for trying to block debt swap  [View news story]
    Tortious interference is exactly what it is. I just can't imagine a judge forcing a company into B/K when it doesn't have to happen. Also, the swap isn't prevented by the covenants and nothing prevents that term loan from being paid in 3 years. They will lose IMO (not a lawyer either, but much of the law is common sense).

    What I will say is I was expecting to see the term loan get extended. I can't see how that's possible anymore. Maybe the big money players come in with new capital?

    Either way when the swap gets approved, look for the shorts to scramble in the common and def the bonds. With the swap, ACI should get back to being CF positive (or very very close). They almost got there last Q.
    Sep 18, 2015. 09:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Arch Coal creditor sues lenders for trying to block debt swap  [View news story]
    Add in Soros and Apollo owning some 20%+ of the common and that's 3 strong, incredibly well financed groups trying to keep ACI out of B/K
    Sep 17, 2015. 10:59 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Will Happen To Utility Stocks If The Fed Raises Rates?  [View article]
    Didn't Utilities rally pretty hard last time we saw rate increases?
    Sep 16, 2015. 09:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Will Happen To Utility Stocks If The Fed Raises Rates?  [View article]
    Because most have already been hit - hard - on the presumption of rate increases. But, not just on a 25bps move. Many REITs have priced in a 200bps move. Personally, I like buying stuff at 20% discounts to NAV.
    Sep 16, 2015. 09:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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