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spetty

spetty
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  • Armour Residential (ARR): Q1 core EPS of $0.18 misses by $0.05. Book value of $6.69/share, down from $7.29 on Dec. 31 (was estimated at $6.70-$6.76 on Feb. 13). Net interest margin of 1.35% off 20 bps from Q4. CPR of 15.7% vs. 14.1% in Q4. Shares -1.55% AH. (PR[View news story]
    Love to see so many getting out of REITs...what a great opportunity for those who do not or who want to jump in.
    May 3, 2013. 08:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Avoid Armour Residential [View article]
    Very interesting comments all....however in general the rule remains - be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful. This approach used in April of 2009 would have turned out very well in hindsight, but in April 2009 it took shear guts to roll the dice.
    Mar 15, 2013. 10:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Avoid Armour Residential [View article]
    While you are correct overall....explain why a yield of 12.8% is a bad thing and we should escape this economic pain? I don't get it?

    I don't begrudge management getting their high fees nor am I jealous since I/we could jump through the same hoops to set up a REIT and in the process take the same high risks seemingly subject to the whims of this Fed induced interest rate bubble? Investing and life are risky anyway you look at it...12.8% is not bad and the cycle of returning to the good old 17% days will return over time...patience is a virtue - in life and investing.
    Mar 14, 2013. 10:00 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Armour Residential (ARR) -1.5% premarket after cutting its monthly dividend to $0.07/share from $0.08. It's the 2nd cut in as many quarters. (PR[View news story]
    Can't argue with or add to the above but also...12% paid monthly is still a good return compared to .5% or a blue chipper at 4% paying quarterly or semi-annually. Reducing a dividend reduces price which opens up future growth and a higher dividend. The cycle continues but what never changes for a solid company that adjusts to changing market conditions is - get in when others are panicking and get out when others are begging to get in. Doing that in 2009 would have been seen as crazy-risky with the sky-falling but in hindsight it looks like doing so was a smart move.
    Mar 13, 2013. 02:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Morgan Stanley (MS) amends its Q4 earnings, bumping profit by $87M thanks to a tax benefit. This adds 17% to the quarter's income, bringing it to $594M, or $0.29/share from $507M, or $0.25. [View news story]
    Nice....may give us a bump in price proving...serendipity is alive and well at MS.
    Feb 28, 2013. 02:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Armour Residential (ARR) prices its 65M share secondary, with the underwriters retaining an option to buy an additional 9.75M shares. Shares -4.8% premarket to $6.75. Book value was $7.77 on Sept. 30, about $7.29 on Dec. 31, and about $6.73 yesterday. That's a 13.4% decline in 4.5 months. Who's buying the secondary? (PR[View news story]
    I have learned to be patient....the ups and downs of these are expected with high dividends. Just buy when the price is down to 25% or less of its low and wait. The yield if 12% or more is still strong and worth the wait.
    Feb 14, 2013. 12:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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