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ejartz

ejartz
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  • James Altucher: Why The Stock Market Is A Sucker's Game Right Now (And What Stocks I Own) [View article]
    James
    People miss something when they quote simple facts such as the average lifespan is increasing from 60 to now 79. Sounds good as it supports your point, but the reality is that if one goes back historically and removes all the early infant mortality that have been corrected through improved medical care, and correct for today's experience, the average lifespan back then is the same as now.
    Apr 30 11:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Assume Anything From Ultra-Low Interest Rates [View article]
    I agree with Paul Price and Adam Aloisi. Clinton was the benefactor of the baby boomers moving up to their peak spending years, which was hugh. He didn't have to do anything, just ride the wave of 73 million spenders. He also benefited from the internet, especially the tech bubble and the tax revenue from that hot period. Finally, Clinton was the idiot who created the necessary and sufficient conditions for the eventual housing bubble.
    Jul 31 05:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Assume Anything From Ultra-Low Interest Rates [View article]
    Seems like you need to do your analysis comprehending tax policy. The top tax rate was 70% from 75 to 81. Changed to 50% from 81 to 86, and decreased to 38.5% in 87 and 28% from 88 to 91. Then back up to 39.6 in 93. Most readers here know what tax policy has been since then, so I'll spare the details. Looking at your equity chart above, the steady increase of the stock market starts to from '86 onward. Just when taxes are starting to come down.

    No one is comprehending in their analysis what will happen when tax policy, in the context of our enormous debt, moves in the other direction (higher) and chokes off more investment. So my point is, it is not just about MONETARY POLICY.

    I believe either of our political parties will have to raise taxes in the future as I think everyone here also realizes. It just depends how they do it. Going back to a 50% or higher tax rate (Obama's tax the rich approach) will be a serious detriment to the stock market, IMHO.
    Jul 29 10:34 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Looks Terrible Part III: The Mass Capitulation Thesis [View article]
    It is amazing how bullish the goldie's on SA are. That alone is a good reason to go short. Gold could go to $1200 in 2012. If you goldies want to hold on till that manifests, be my guest. But all the weak-kneed goldies will bail when it breaks 1550. Then things will get interesting. You're going to regret not listening to the author, take your profits, and buying back in later at the lower level.
    Jul 9 10:25 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America's Fee Boost Smacks Of Netflix [View article]
    I thought I heard recently that BAC was going to de-emphasize retail and focus on commerical banking. This move to increase debit charges would seem to be congruent with that strategy...drive off current retail customers. Those foolish enough to stay, they will gouge the snot out of. Net more profitable retail base.
    Oct 1 05:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ECRI Growth Metric Continues Drop Into Negative Territory [View article]
    Just saw Laksman Achuthan on Bloomberg. He is making a firm call on a recession, no questions. "Unemployment rate is going to be going back up, claims are going to be increasing." He said "this is a bad economy now, but you haven't seen anything yet. A recession means you get in a vicious cycle with lower sales, lower production, lower employment, lower income, leading to lower sales and the cycle repeats..." He said most people don't understand the real definition of a recession. My guess most on SA do understand this.

    Lots of opportunities on the way down...like shooting ducks in a barrell.
    Sep 30 07:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Has To Be The Housing Bottom [View article]
    I am not persuaded by the authors analysis. He appears to be looking at historical data and projecting from that. What seems to be missing is a comprehension of foreclosures that are soon to be released to the market as the banks get the ok from the courts given the holds from the robo signing fiasco. It is probable that prices could fall another 10-15%.
    Sep 28 06:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Upcoming Crash Of Apple And Amazon [View article]
    Ya know, if Karl is all that committed to his views, I am disappointed to see that he is not short both companies. It is fine to throw out provocations, but if you don't have the courage of your own convictions, then just keep it to yourself. Seems like a petulant kid trying to get attention with shallow arguments.

    Certainly doesn't take a integrated systems view of either business.
    Sep 28 05:52 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons The Fed Will Not Push 10Y Rates Below 2.0% [View article]
    Hi James,
    Great article...I am learning a lot from reading what you publish. One question I have about put backs is how do they work. Can China or Japan for example just come to the fed or treasury and put back bonds that they purchased? I thought they would have to sell them in a secondary market and would take the currency risk and impact of market pricing.
    Sep 21 08:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Revisiting Reed Hastings Vs. Whitney Tilson: Was Tilson Right? [View article]
    Time will tell when next quarter results are posted. I was a long time Netflix subscriber...since the inception. My beef was the extraordinarly high price increase for streaming and two dvd's. It wasn't that I couldn't afford it, I wanted to send a message with my wallet ... don't mess with your loyal customers. So I cancelled my subscription. Interested to see customer retention results for the next quarterly analyst report. I am finding alternatives that are economic and have more recent content.
    Sep 6 09:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Reasons For A Market Correction [View article]
    Seth...the chart is very interesting. So where do you see the next bust taking us to? Much below the March 2009 lows?
    Sep 3 09:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Low Can The 10-Year Treasury Yield Go? (Part 2) [View article]
    I heard Art Cashin on CNBC speculate that the Fed could target the 10year to lower the rates in a ploy to lower mortgage rates...since most mortgages are based on the 10 year. If correct, I think he believed the Fed could lower rates as low as 1% to drive refi and help with obama housing initiative. It would be part of operation twist. The government needs to exend the duration of it's balance sheet in any event.

    I am not a bond expert, but one could see how that could play well into the hands of bond traders.
    Sep 3 03:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Gold Trade: Prepare for the Plunge [View article]
    I looked at the Gold chart and it seemed to be telling me that gold is about to consolidate. The RSI is way overbought as it was in the previous two times where there were large corrections.

    Is there any explanation of the indicators at the bottom of the chart?The patterns of the red, black and green lines seem to also confirm a drop in gold based on the two historical corrections.
    Aug 22 12:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Preparing for a Crash [View article]
    It went down to the mid-700's level due to forced liquidations by hedge funds, el al.
    Aug 12 03:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weekly Economic Indicators: Stall vs. Double-Dip Edition [View article]
    Your comments on housing may be accurate based on current rate of bank inventories flowing into the market. But when that changes as the states resolve legal disputes with banks, the effects could be disastrous. It has also been postulated by some on SA that banks may be holding back inventories so they don't have to actually take the losses...while waiting for the next financial disaster where TARP2 will bail them out. This shadow inventory will hit the market sometime and will further depress prices unless the government, out of the goodness of the taxpayers hearts, will forgive debt to those poor homeowners who lied to get get into homes they could not afford.
    Jul 10 11:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
102 Comments
154 Likes