Jack Lifton's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/user/65370/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/1379331/comments?source=feed#comment-18206971 18206971
I believe that the "mandatory" convertibles are quite common among Canadian junior miners who are forever raising money just to keep afloat. These companies are created primarily in the hope that they can sell the company to an actual miner before they have to raise the huge amount of money it takes to bring a mine into production, and, in the case of the so-called rare earth "juniors," to find and implement the technology to add enough value to mixed rare earth concentrates so as to make them profitable to produce-This invariably requires separating them from each other and purifying and MARKETING the critical rare earths , and that is often the only "value" they can have. MCP works the stock market very much like a Canadian junior even though it is in fact a producing company. I note that sites like Yahoo always put Molycorp in the same class as the major miners. This I think is why there is so much interest in MCP in the market; it's the company it keeps. ]]> Sun, 28 Apr 2013 21:33:02 -0400
I believe that the "mandatory" convertibles are quite common among Canadian junior miners who are forever raising money just to keep afloat. These companies are created primarily in the hope that they can sell the company to an actual miner before they have to raise the huge amount of money it takes to bring a mine into production, and, in the case of the so-called rare earth "juniors," to find and implement the technology to add enough value to mixed rare earth concentrates so as to make them profitable to produce-This invariably requires separating them from each other and purifying and MARKETING the critical rare earths , and that is often the only "value" they can have. MCP works the stock market very much like a Canadian junior even though it is in fact a producing company. I note that sites like Yahoo always put Molycorp in the same class as the major miners. This I think is why there is so much interest in MCP in the market; it's the company it keeps. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1370771/comments?source=feed#comment-18137561 18137561

I'm so old that I actually heard Bertrand Russell say that philosophers and other soothsayers only get famous 50 years after their deaths. Combine that with "a fool and his money are soon parted" and "too soon, old, too late smart" and you have all you need to know to understand why Tesla, Fisker, and Next will not even be footnotes in the very near future. They are all a type of vehicle (in both senses) to funnel taxpayer money to connected elites of the ruling party of the moment. They are not game changers, they are game players.]]> Fri, 26 Apr 2013 12:39:17 -0400

I'm so old that I actually heard Bertrand Russell say that philosophers and other soothsayers only get famous 50 years after their deaths. Combine that with "a fool and his money are soon parted" and "too soon, old, too late smart" and you have all you need to know to understand why Tesla, Fisker, and Next will not even be footnotes in the very near future. They are all a type of vehicle (in both senses) to funnel taxpayer money to connected elites of the ruling party of the moment. They are not game changers, they are game players.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1356541/comments?source=feed#comment-17992021 17992021
The market is CORRECTING as dictated by the law of supply and demand.

Stop writing glibly as if you understand the technologies here or the demand market. You do not.

The junior minors (excuse the redundancy) are mostly sunk as junior miners. ]]> Tue, 23 Apr 2013 14:57:46 -0400
The market is CORRECTING as dictated by the law of supply and demand.

Stop writing glibly as if you understand the technologies here or the demand market. You do not.

The junior minors (excuse the redundancy) are mostly sunk as junior miners. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1345141/comments?source=feed#comment-17962081 17962081
There is also the effect of unsalable inventory that has to be re-worked due to not meeting the customer's spec or being contaminated. This happened when Molycorp restarted the original plant, and IF it is happening again it is VERY serious.

Neither Molycorp or anyone else outside of China plans on selling high purity separated rare earths INDIVIDUALLY. The market for them is customer designed specialized composites such as La-Ce for fluid cracking catalysts and Neodymium-praseodymium (didymium) for magnets. The only commodity material they might make is cerium oxide for glass polishing, but that is a low value very competitive product. SorbX is their only hope to get some added value from cerium.]]> Mon, 22 Apr 2013 22:52:02 -0400
There is also the effect of unsalable inventory that has to be re-worked due to not meeting the customer's spec or being contaminated. This happened when Molycorp restarted the original plant, and IF it is happening again it is VERY serious.

Neither Molycorp or anyone else outside of China plans on selling high purity separated rare earths INDIVIDUALLY. The market for them is customer designed specialized composites such as La-Ce for fluid cracking catalysts and Neodymium-praseodymium (didymium) for magnets. The only commodity material they might make is cerium oxide for glass polishing, but that is a low value very competitive product. SorbX is their only hope to get some added value from cerium.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1345141/comments?source=feed#comment-17961801 17961801
I enjoy reading your tales of market gamesmanship, in which you try to make money off of each other and off of those who consider Molycorp just another game in the casino.

In fact none of you understand the problems of building or operating a very large solvent extraction plant to separate the rare earths not only from each other but in mixtures and ratios that are CUSTOMER specified. Sovent extraction planst are not meant to be turned on and off with a light switch. They must be run with a DEFINITE output spectrum in mind. If Molycorp is building inventory it is either because their customers cannot or will not take material or they are making a generic material on speculation. If the designated customer does not take the specified material it will only be sold at deep discount, if at all.

Please keep playing your market games, but do not purport to understand the operations of an industry that is a specialist business which you do not understand.]]> Mon, 22 Apr 2013 22:38:36 -0400
I enjoy reading your tales of market gamesmanship, in which you try to make money off of each other and off of those who consider Molycorp just another game in the casino.

In fact none of you understand the problems of building or operating a very large solvent extraction plant to separate the rare earths not only from each other but in mixtures and ratios that are CUSTOMER specified. Sovent extraction planst are not meant to be turned on and off with a light switch. They must be run with a DEFINITE output spectrum in mind. If Molycorp is building inventory it is either because their customers cannot or will not take material or they are making a generic material on speculation. If the designated customer does not take the specified material it will only be sold at deep discount, if at all.

Please keep playing your market games, but do not purport to understand the operations of an industry that is a specialist business which you do not understand.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1350931/comments?source=feed#comment-17796071 17796071
In 2009 When I visited Mountain Pass I was told that it had 22,000 tons of 70% ore concentrates on hand produced before 2002, and that it was processing enough of this to produce nearly 4,000 tpa of lathanum, cerium, and didymium "oxides." Surely this material has been exhausted. So, from where are the stockpiles coming. Are they mining again? If so then is mining output greater than separation capacity? If so what is the size of the stockpile? If not , what is going on there?

I do not understand from Molycorp's public announcements from where the inventory is coming in any case. Is newly produced ore concentrate being characterized as an inventory of contained end-products? Is this a common practice?]]> Thu, 18 Apr 2013 13:59:57 -0400
In 2009 When I visited Mountain Pass I was told that it had 22,000 tons of 70% ore concentrates on hand produced before 2002, and that it was processing enough of this to produce nearly 4,000 tpa of lathanum, cerium, and didymium "oxides." Surely this material has been exhausted. So, from where are the stockpiles coming. Are they mining again? If so then is mining output greater than separation capacity? If so what is the size of the stockpile? If not , what is going on there?

I do not understand from Molycorp's public announcements from where the inventory is coming in any case. Is newly produced ore concentrate being characterized as an inventory of contained end-products? Is this a common practice?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1326741/comments?source=feed#comment-17378921 17378921
You're correct about Molymet, and the deep-pockets premise is well taken, but keep in mind that Lynas has brought in a 22,000 tpa SX plant from a green field for much less than Molycorp seems to have spent for the completely new 19,700 tpa at Mountain Pass. I admit that it is hard to know exactly how much MCP has spent on Project Phoenix alone, but even when you back out the cost of acquiring Neo the number is very high. Now if in fact CK can get his operating cost down to USD$6.00/kg then he will have one of, if not the cheapest OPEX of any plant of its type, perhaps in the world. But for now the Chinese are holding that title. Note also that If Lynas is on target with its OPEX it will be neck and neck with MCP

We are obsessed in the USA with Molycorp, but the rest of the world notes that Mt Weld is, like Mountain Pass, a huge deposit with a grade perhaps 50% higher than that of Mountain Pass (Note: The direct comparison is mis-leading in that they are of different minerologies). This means that for practical purposes that Lynas says it need process much less ore, fpr example than Molycorp, to recover its 22,000 tpa. The world's senior rare earth geologist who is also the world's leading authority on rare earth mineralogy told me a few years ago that he knew of at least 7 deposits outside of China that were world class if a method could be worked out to crack (extract the metal values from) the mineral eudialyte. I personally believe that particular cracking problem has now been solved, and that we will be hearing much more about this in the near to mid-term.

The market seems to have fallen out of love with metal mining/refining ventures in general, so that those who still must raise a lot of cash are in peril. Experienced financial and technical management allied with a top flight administrator is the buy-in for not only success but survival. Molycorp is playing catch up in all of those categories, but I admit I like what it has done with CK and his new team.

Good luck to you as an investor in the RE circus.]]> Mon, 08 Apr 2013 19:55:05 -0400
You're correct about Molymet, and the deep-pockets premise is well taken, but keep in mind that Lynas has brought in a 22,000 tpa SX plant from a green field for much less than Molycorp seems to have spent for the completely new 19,700 tpa at Mountain Pass. I admit that it is hard to know exactly how much MCP has spent on Project Phoenix alone, but even when you back out the cost of acquiring Neo the number is very high. Now if in fact CK can get his operating cost down to USD$6.00/kg then he will have one of, if not the cheapest OPEX of any plant of its type, perhaps in the world. But for now the Chinese are holding that title. Note also that If Lynas is on target with its OPEX it will be neck and neck with MCP

We are obsessed in the USA with Molycorp, but the rest of the world notes that Mt Weld is, like Mountain Pass, a huge deposit with a grade perhaps 50% higher than that of Mountain Pass (Note: The direct comparison is mis-leading in that they are of different minerologies). This means that for practical purposes that Lynas says it need process much less ore, fpr example than Molycorp, to recover its 22,000 tpa. The world's senior rare earth geologist who is also the world's leading authority on rare earth mineralogy told me a few years ago that he knew of at least 7 deposits outside of China that were world class if a method could be worked out to crack (extract the metal values from) the mineral eudialyte. I personally believe that particular cracking problem has now been solved, and that we will be hearing much more about this in the near to mid-term.

The market seems to have fallen out of love with metal mining/refining ventures in general, so that those who still must raise a lot of cash are in peril. Experienced financial and technical management allied with a top flight administrator is the buy-in for not only success but survival. Molycorp is playing catch up in all of those categories, but I admit I like what it has done with CK and his new team.

Good luck to you as an investor in the RE circus.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1326741/comments?source=feed#comment-17370531 17370531
Indeed it is possible that some consumers would pay a premium for non-Chinese REEs, but since the world's principal consumer of REEs is the Chinese civilian industrial economy it is not likely. The second biggest users of REEs, the Japanese, were always interested primarily in price. I remember being told there less than two years ago that the Chinese were a problem for everyone but the Japanese and that there was, for them, with their special relationship, no security of supply issue.

The problem facing Molycorp is that there is not really a shortage of good deposits of the light rare earths outside of China. Molycorp's perceived advantage was that as the one time largest producer of light rare earth raw materials, and some next step downstream separated products, such as didymium, it was assumed that bringing it back to that point would be easy and it would have the advantage of needing only the CAPEX to bring it back on line.

The mistake at this point, I think, was to decide that somehow the existing Molycorp separation plant needed replacing, not refurbishing, by a giant size "advanced" plant, which it turns out is not only not cheap but hard to bring on line and chock full of new problems.

I assume that you, in 2007, would not have believed that REE prices would rise, but I did, and I told Mark Smith in 2009 that I thought that just bringing the existing plant up to its design capacity-I do not think that had been done for more than 25 years-could produce enough profit to justify the then expenditure of the 80 million his group had made to acquire "Molycorp," Mountain Pass. He told me that they had big plans and that Molycorp was going to again be the biggest producer of REEs in the world (light REEs).as it had been in 1984. I think that both Smith and I have been consistent in promoting our different visions of the best way for a junior to proceed in the current REE market. There was no mention whatsoever in 2009 of entering the total supply chain as a participant at all levels.

I remember asking a Star Trek author how much a Galaxy Class starship massed. I noted that just as a guess I would say that the 400 man/woman/being crew were cruising the galaxy surrounded by several thousand tons of ship and that today putting such a mass into space, let alone a fleet, would require a healthy percentage of our gross national product. She told me that even if that were true it was a matter of poetic license.

The Chinese took a generation to bring the total of their production in dozens of mines and separation plants for LREEs in Inner Mongolia up to 50,000 tpa. Isn't it just poetic license to assume that we can do the same in a short while?

In my old age I have begun to enjoy the enthusiasm of the young untempered by experience or the limits of economics. If only Congress would repeal the laws of supply and demand and of gravity. But alas they are too worried about being re-elected and of their toupees flying upward if they repeal gravity.

I'm sure that there is still money to made in trading shares of MCP; I'm just not so sure that MCP will add to the world's supply of LREEs.

If you don't like all of my opinions that's fine. I appreciate you're reading and commenting on them in any case.]]> Mon, 08 Apr 2013 16:02:15 -0400
Indeed it is possible that some consumers would pay a premium for non-Chinese REEs, but since the world's principal consumer of REEs is the Chinese civilian industrial economy it is not likely. The second biggest users of REEs, the Japanese, were always interested primarily in price. I remember being told there less than two years ago that the Chinese were a problem for everyone but the Japanese and that there was, for them, with their special relationship, no security of supply issue.

The problem facing Molycorp is that there is not really a shortage of good deposits of the light rare earths outside of China. Molycorp's perceived advantage was that as the one time largest producer of light rare earth raw materials, and some next step downstream separated products, such as didymium, it was assumed that bringing it back to that point would be easy and it would have the advantage of needing only the CAPEX to bring it back on line.

The mistake at this point, I think, was to decide that somehow the existing Molycorp separation plant needed replacing, not refurbishing, by a giant size "advanced" plant, which it turns out is not only not cheap but hard to bring on line and chock full of new problems.

I assume that you, in 2007, would not have believed that REE prices would rise, but I did, and I told Mark Smith in 2009 that I thought that just bringing the existing plant up to its design capacity-I do not think that had been done for more than 25 years-could produce enough profit to justify the then expenditure of the 80 million his group had made to acquire "Molycorp," Mountain Pass. He told me that they had big plans and that Molycorp was going to again be the biggest producer of REEs in the world (light REEs).as it had been in 1984. I think that both Smith and I have been consistent in promoting our different visions of the best way for a junior to proceed in the current REE market. There was no mention whatsoever in 2009 of entering the total supply chain as a participant at all levels.

I remember asking a Star Trek author how much a Galaxy Class starship massed. I noted that just as a guess I would say that the 400 man/woman/being crew were cruising the galaxy surrounded by several thousand tons of ship and that today putting such a mass into space, let alone a fleet, would require a healthy percentage of our gross national product. She told me that even if that were true it was a matter of poetic license.

The Chinese took a generation to bring the total of their production in dozens of mines and separation plants for LREEs in Inner Mongolia up to 50,000 tpa. Isn't it just poetic license to assume that we can do the same in a short while?

In my old age I have begun to enjoy the enthusiasm of the young untempered by experience or the limits of economics. If only Congress would repeal the laws of supply and demand and of gravity. But alas they are too worried about being re-elected and of their toupees flying upward if they repeal gravity.

I'm sure that there is still money to made in trading shares of MCP; I'm just not so sure that MCP will add to the world's supply of LREEs.

If you don't like all of my opinions that's fine. I appreciate you're reading and commenting on them in any case.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1326741/comments?source=feed#comment-17362901 17362901
The stock market plays with itself most of the time, and share valuations are less and less intrinsic as the time from the IPO lengthens.

I wish all of you luck in making money in the casino, but I think in the near term that you will make it from the game not from the intrinsic value of this company or of its products.

The rare earth end user market is highly specialized. Product specifications are driven by customer's requirements. Building an inventory can mean that the customer has changed his requirement or simply cannot afford to buy as much as you are producing, or, is out of business. How do you mark to market an out-of-spec material? At first the same way you value last year's model car, then the way you value old meat after you cannot afford to refrigerate it.

All of you are using the de Beer's model for inventory. I would use the American Beef Association's model, personally. First, dog food, then doo-doo (composting material)

I think that the rare earth juniors (exploration companies) went into the market ass-backwards. First they should have all looked at the market to see what was needed, and then to see HOW THAT NEEDED PRODUCT WAS PRODUCED. Then they needed to survey the market and see what the customers would pay for these products, and if there were a premium to be gained from better quality, reliability, and security of supply. Then they needed to determine EXACTLY where they needed to enter the market to make a profit and to provide enough return to their early investors and creditors.

As far as I can determine they all used only the field of dreams' model: "If I dig up this stuff they will buy it. (This model is also used by all junior gold miners)".

Molycorp to me was a classic of the above type. It first hyped a USA "military NEED," which has turned out to be, with almost no fanfare, just 150 tons a year of rare earth permanent magnets. Then when that actual demand itself turned out to require and critically need 7 tons a year of dysprosium Molycorp simply ramped up its projected production to 50,000 tons per year, in which, with 100% recovery (impossible, of course) it would produce (surprise) exactly 7 tons of dysprosium per year. Then when the 50,000 ton level's absurdity filtered down to the puts/calls trade Molycorp changed its business model to one of a total supply chain , and purchased Neo materials for twice the value it would have just 6 months later.

I note that there is no Chinese competitor YET to the total supply chain model. But there will be one if Chinese rare earth businessmen determine that they can cut costs and make money in this fashion. So far, to the best of my knowledge, THEY HAVE NOT SO DETERMINED as of this writing!

I wish you sincere good luck. The founders of Molycorp made at least two billion dollars playing the market game. I actually hope the company survives, but I know that in its present state survival is perilous.

Good luck to Molycorp and to you guys in the stock market. You are NOT playing on the same field.
I note here, to avoid, bulletin board controversy. That the Great Western model of creating a supplier of magnetic materials within the limits of in-house capability of raw materials' production is a very good one, but the volatility of the end-product pricing is not matched by a resonance in the mining and processing costs. I am concerned for their break-even point. I have never met Marc LaViere, but he looks, on paper, to have the right-stuff at this time for GW. I wish them luck also.
Running a public company is a bitch; you have to answer questions with sound bites that can take a life-time to understand.
I would leave Consatntine Karyannoupoulos now of MCP alone. If he can't make the colossus work then no one can. He's the best man, and he knows what to do, if it can be done.
Enough rambling. Gentlemen man your checkbooks (or EFT stations).

Shockwave: Please keep analyzing I really think your ideas are good.]]> Mon, 08 Apr 2013 13:25:00 -0400
The stock market plays with itself most of the time, and share valuations are less and less intrinsic as the time from the IPO lengthens.

I wish all of you luck in making money in the casino, but I think in the near term that you will make it from the game not from the intrinsic value of this company or of its products.

The rare earth end user market is highly specialized. Product specifications are driven by customer's requirements. Building an inventory can mean that the customer has changed his requirement or simply cannot afford to buy as much as you are producing, or, is out of business. How do you mark to market an out-of-spec material? At first the same way you value last year's model car, then the way you value old meat after you cannot afford to refrigerate it.

All of you are using the de Beer's model for inventory. I would use the American Beef Association's model, personally. First, dog food, then doo-doo (composting material)

I think that the rare earth juniors (exploration companies) went into the market ass-backwards. First they should have all looked at the market to see what was needed, and then to see HOW THAT NEEDED PRODUCT WAS PRODUCED. Then they needed to survey the market and see what the customers would pay for these products, and if there were a premium to be gained from better quality, reliability, and security of supply. Then they needed to determine EXACTLY where they needed to enter the market to make a profit and to provide enough return to their early investors and creditors.

As far as I can determine they all used only the field of dreams' model: "If I dig up this stuff they will buy it. (This model is also used by all junior gold miners)".

Molycorp to me was a classic of the above type. It first hyped a USA "military NEED," which has turned out to be, with almost no fanfare, just 150 tons a year of rare earth permanent magnets. Then when that actual demand itself turned out to require and critically need 7 tons a year of dysprosium Molycorp simply ramped up its projected production to 50,000 tons per year, in which, with 100% recovery (impossible, of course) it would produce (surprise) exactly 7 tons of dysprosium per year. Then when the 50,000 ton level's absurdity filtered down to the puts/calls trade Molycorp changed its business model to one of a total supply chain , and purchased Neo materials for twice the value it would have just 6 months later.

I note that there is no Chinese competitor YET to the total supply chain model. But there will be one if Chinese rare earth businessmen determine that they can cut costs and make money in this fashion. So far, to the best of my knowledge, THEY HAVE NOT SO DETERMINED as of this writing!

I wish you sincere good luck. The founders of Molycorp made at least two billion dollars playing the market game. I actually hope the company survives, but I know that in its present state survival is perilous.

Good luck to Molycorp and to you guys in the stock market. You are NOT playing on the same field.
I note here, to avoid, bulletin board controversy. That the Great Western model of creating a supplier of magnetic materials within the limits of in-house capability of raw materials' production is a very good one, but the volatility of the end-product pricing is not matched by a resonance in the mining and processing costs. I am concerned for their break-even point. I have never met Marc LaViere, but he looks, on paper, to have the right-stuff at this time for GW. I wish them luck also.
Running a public company is a bitch; you have to answer questions with sound bites that can take a life-time to understand.
I would leave Consatntine Karyannoupoulos now of MCP alone. If he can't make the colossus work then no one can. He's the best man, and he knows what to do, if it can be done.
Enough rambling. Gentlemen man your checkbooks (or EFT stations).

Shockwave: Please keep analyzing I really think your ideas are good.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1320451/comments?source=feed#comment-17261761 17261761
So, now that you brought it up I ask again why was Dr Burba separated?? Did he offend the gods, or was the job he did deemed insufficient for his pay grade? (Which was the same as that of the President of the U.S.)]]> Fri, 05 Apr 2013 09:54:11 -0400
So, now that you brought it up I ask again why was Dr Burba separated?? Did he offend the gods, or was the job he did deemed insufficient for his pay grade? (Which was the same as that of the President of the U.S.)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1320451/comments?source=feed#comment-17209961 17209961
The blood bath seems to be of the Friends of Mark Smith, FOMS, and that is understandable in terms of changing management and directions, but I am surprised by the fact that, even though he may have been a FOMS, John Burba's dismissal has raised such a small wave. I thought, and perhaps I am wrong, that Dr Burba was in charge of the technical aspects of Project Phoenix. Does his dismissal mean that Molycorp's Project Phoenix is not functional?

If, as you say, the COGS is more than the selling price in the market can surpass then the company is in trouble. I do not believe that MCP has any more borrowing capacity, so it may, desperately at this point,need a new business model. I have suggested before and I do so again now: Shut the mine down and recast the American part of the company as a processing center. Focus the efforts on cracking ores by contract and tolling LREEs in California and HREEs in Neo facilities. I admit that any processing done in China will be subject to Chinese controls, but I think that China would like to have outside supplies of HREEs to relive the political pressure in China now building rapidly against monster heap leaching operations such as those in southern China at the so-called absorption clay deposits, the principal source of China's and the world's HREEs today.
Ucore and Rare Element Resources can pick up the domestic supply slack and do not have the overhang of billions of misdirected dollars. In addition both of them will have significant HREEs in their output. HREEs are more than ever what is needed.]]> Thu, 04 Apr 2013 10:06:31 -0400
The blood bath seems to be of the Friends of Mark Smith, FOMS, and that is understandable in terms of changing management and directions, but I am surprised by the fact that, even though he may have been a FOMS, John Burba's dismissal has raised such a small wave. I thought, and perhaps I am wrong, that Dr Burba was in charge of the technical aspects of Project Phoenix. Does his dismissal mean that Molycorp's Project Phoenix is not functional?

If, as you say, the COGS is more than the selling price in the market can surpass then the company is in trouble. I do not believe that MCP has any more borrowing capacity, so it may, desperately at this point,need a new business model. I have suggested before and I do so again now: Shut the mine down and recast the American part of the company as a processing center. Focus the efforts on cracking ores by contract and tolling LREEs in California and HREEs in Neo facilities. I admit that any processing done in China will be subject to Chinese controls, but I think that China would like to have outside supplies of HREEs to relive the political pressure in China now building rapidly against monster heap leaching operations such as those in southern China at the so-called absorption clay deposits, the principal source of China's and the world's HREEs today.
Ucore and Rare Element Resources can pick up the domestic supply slack and do not have the overhang of billions of misdirected dollars. In addition both of them will have significant HREEs in their output. HREEs are more than ever what is needed.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1308121/comments?source=feed#comment-16959811 16959811
The key word here is "validate" A technology. In my working life in high-tech, 51 years, I have never seen such a common-senseless approach to a technology. I cannot any longer understand why anyone would buy anything at all from a company like Yuasa/Boeing that says, essentially, "we don't know what happened on the 787, but we have fixed it." Isn't it obvious that it's the manufacturing technology that is the problem. Li-ion battery development has reached a plateau or perhaps a brick wall. No one is born to be a battery engineer or an electrochemist. We cannot create experts who master these technologies by simply throwing money at promoters, or, worse, at scientists with little knowledge of business, economics, or politics. A scientists's only goal is to increase knowledge, but in our society we value money and its accumulation more than knowledge, so we get promoters in charge not scientists and engineers.
I will fly on a 787 using a new improved Yuasa li-ion battery only when the CEOs of both Yuasa and Boeing are on the same flight. Boeing should buy simple, reliable, Duracell flashlight batteries by the ton, TEST EACH ONE, and replace them after each flight.
I visualize Yuasa and Boeing engineers with screw drivers on each flight while company executives and so-called regulators sit in their plush safe offices and fret about their jobs and their share prices. Is that any way to run an airline( automotive company)??]]> Thu, 28 Mar 2013 18:46:10 -0400
The key word here is "validate" A technology. In my working life in high-tech, 51 years, I have never seen such a common-senseless approach to a technology. I cannot any longer understand why anyone would buy anything at all from a company like Yuasa/Boeing that says, essentially, "we don't know what happened on the 787, but we have fixed it." Isn't it obvious that it's the manufacturing technology that is the problem. Li-ion battery development has reached a plateau or perhaps a brick wall. No one is born to be a battery engineer or an electrochemist. We cannot create experts who master these technologies by simply throwing money at promoters, or, worse, at scientists with little knowledge of business, economics, or politics. A scientists's only goal is to increase knowledge, but in our society we value money and its accumulation more than knowledge, so we get promoters in charge not scientists and engineers.
I will fly on a 787 using a new improved Yuasa li-ion battery only when the CEOs of both Yuasa and Boeing are on the same flight. Boeing should buy simple, reliable, Duracell flashlight batteries by the ton, TEST EACH ONE, and replace them after each flight.
I visualize Yuasa and Boeing engineers with screw drivers on each flight while company executives and so-called regulators sit in their plush safe offices and fret about their jobs and their share prices. Is that any way to run an airline( automotive company)??]]> http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/913111?source=feed#comment-16916521 16916521 Thu, 28 Mar 2013 00:28:51 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1303491/comments?source=feed#comment-16876491 16876491
Your commentariat is trying to have it both ways. On the one hand some of them are treating the rare earths as commodities where the lowest cost producer wins. Some of these commentators also think that since downstream rare earth products are based on commodities then they are also all interchangeable. Please take account of the fact that rare earths are commodities last when they enter the separation plant. The separation plant products are CUSTOMER SPECIFIED. It is the next step in the process, the manufacturing of the next stage intermediate product from the customer specified separation plant product where the boys and men are separated. Molycorp Canada has been producing bonded magnet precursor powders and bonded magnets for a relatively long time. The value to Molycorp Canada of the Mountain Pass mining/refining operation is to make Molycorp Canada independent of China as a neodymium-praseodymium supplier. Molycorp Canada's sales will not magically rise nor will its market share until and unless its overall costs and supply insecurities go down.

Announcements that low dysprosium or no dysprosium bonded magnets are being offered to the appliance and automotive industries doesn't mean that those industries are BUYING them. In fact those industries, even in China, are simply hedging their bets. If dysprosium is available they will use sintered magnets as they have been doing. The issue is availability and PRICE. Dysprosium below $1500/kg, if available, will remain the basis of the magnet of choice.

It takes YEARS for new suppliers of critical components to be QUALIFIED and even then PRICE and AVAILABILITY of products that meet CUSTOMER SPECIFICATIONS are the deciding factors.

In the rare earth business you don't mine and refine and then sell; you find out the customer needs and specifications first and then you design your system to produce the correct raw materials. Neo could always do far more for Molycorp than Molycorp could do for Neo. Keep that in mind along with the fact that Molycorp Canada is not by any means the biggest magnet producer in China; it is in the top 10 or 5. To break out of the pack without going into sintered magnets it needs a non-Chinese security of supply at a competitive price. this is the hope of Mountain Pass..I do doubt, however, that China will allow Neo to import California produced LREEs. But Neo can produce magnets outside of China; the problem will be selling those magnets in China, the world's largest market for rare earth permanent magnets.

Mr Karyannoupoulos has a long road to hoe, but he is perhaps the only man for the job. Its really too bad that Neo didn't buy Molycorp in the first place. But you dance with the girl you brought to the party, so I wish Mr K good luck. He and the board are off to a good start in cleaning up the mess caused by marketing inexperience.]]> Wed, 27 Mar 2013 10:20:32 -0400
Your commentariat is trying to have it both ways. On the one hand some of them are treating the rare earths as commodities where the lowest cost producer wins. Some of these commentators also think that since downstream rare earth products are based on commodities then they are also all interchangeable. Please take account of the fact that rare earths are commodities last when they enter the separation plant. The separation plant products are CUSTOMER SPECIFIED. It is the next step in the process, the manufacturing of the next stage intermediate product from the customer specified separation plant product where the boys and men are separated. Molycorp Canada has been producing bonded magnet precursor powders and bonded magnets for a relatively long time. The value to Molycorp Canada of the Mountain Pass mining/refining operation is to make Molycorp Canada independent of China as a neodymium-praseodymium supplier. Molycorp Canada's sales will not magically rise nor will its market share until and unless its overall costs and supply insecurities go down.

Announcements that low dysprosium or no dysprosium bonded magnets are being offered to the appliance and automotive industries doesn't mean that those industries are BUYING them. In fact those industries, even in China, are simply hedging their bets. If dysprosium is available they will use sintered magnets as they have been doing. The issue is availability and PRICE. Dysprosium below $1500/kg, if available, will remain the basis of the magnet of choice.

It takes YEARS for new suppliers of critical components to be QUALIFIED and even then PRICE and AVAILABILITY of products that meet CUSTOMER SPECIFICATIONS are the deciding factors.

In the rare earth business you don't mine and refine and then sell; you find out the customer needs and specifications first and then you design your system to produce the correct raw materials. Neo could always do far more for Molycorp than Molycorp could do for Neo. Keep that in mind along with the fact that Molycorp Canada is not by any means the biggest magnet producer in China; it is in the top 10 or 5. To break out of the pack without going into sintered magnets it needs a non-Chinese security of supply at a competitive price. this is the hope of Mountain Pass..I do doubt, however, that China will allow Neo to import California produced LREEs. But Neo can produce magnets outside of China; the problem will be selling those magnets in China, the world's largest market for rare earth permanent magnets.

Mr Karyannoupoulos has a long road to hoe, but he is perhaps the only man for the job. Its really too bad that Neo didn't buy Molycorp in the first place. But you dance with the girl you brought to the party, so I wish Mr K good luck. He and the board are off to a good start in cleaning up the mess caused by marketing inexperience.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1296281/comments?source=feed#comment-16687871 16687871
Very few junior rare earth projects are going to survive.

This author is absolutely correct. Business is about making profits not building inventory.]]> Fri, 22 Mar 2013 23:14:08 -0400
Very few junior rare earth projects are going to survive.

This author is absolutely correct. Business is about making profits not building inventory.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1296281/comments?source=feed#comment-16685551 16685551
Now

Note that Michael Doolan says in reference to slide 9 "our chemicals and oxides segment sold 4,631,000 metric tons"

No matter how you measure products this is a physical impossibility. Note that just to get 20,000 metric tons of throughput at Mountain Pass they would have to move and process 250,000-350,000 tons of ore. This is a major undertaking by itself. I cannot imagine what they would have to process to get nearly 5,000,000 metric tons of PRODUCTS! This is a mis-statement clearly that no one bothered to challenge. I am now quite skeptical about this call. what is it that I am overlooking, please?]]> Fri, 22 Mar 2013 21:43:09 -0400
Now

Note that Michael Doolan says in reference to slide 9 "our chemicals and oxides segment sold 4,631,000 metric tons"

No matter how you measure products this is a physical impossibility. Note that just to get 20,000 metric tons of throughput at Mountain Pass they would have to move and process 250,000-350,000 tons of ore. This is a major undertaking by itself. I cannot imagine what they would have to process to get nearly 5,000,000 metric tons of PRODUCTS! This is a mis-statement clearly that no one bothered to challenge. I am now quite skeptical about this call. what is it that I am overlooking, please?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1296281/comments?source=feed#comment-16683271 16683271
I am now confused by the statement that the company sold more than 4 million tons of products of all kinds last year. What was the breakdown of that??

Global production of all rare earths last year was officially between 90,000 and 125,000 metric tons. I don't know how much niobium, tantalum, rhenium, and gallium came out of Molycorp globally, but the total global production of all of those metals combined was less than 70,000 metric tons from all producers. Even though Molycorp's acquisition of Recapture Metals, Ltd two years ago gave it, Molycorp, as much as half of the global gallium refining capacity this capacity is around 125 metric tons per year. Where did Molycorp's CFO get his number? Am I missing something?

Thanks again.]]> Fri, 22 Mar 2013 20:20:54 -0400
I am now confused by the statement that the company sold more than 4 million tons of products of all kinds last year. What was the breakdown of that??

Global production of all rare earths last year was officially between 90,000 and 125,000 metric tons. I don't know how much niobium, tantalum, rhenium, and gallium came out of Molycorp globally, but the total global production of all of those metals combined was less than 70,000 metric tons from all producers. Even though Molycorp's acquisition of Recapture Metals, Ltd two years ago gave it, Molycorp, as much as half of the global gallium refining capacity this capacity is around 125 metric tons per year. Where did Molycorp's CFO get his number? Am I missing something?

Thanks again.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1296281/comments?source=feed#comment-16681341 16681341
I also noted in the 10k that Silimae produced or sold some 75+ million dollars of "rare metals." Are the details of Silimae's production broken out anywhere? Particularly I'd like to know what percentage of that production/sales was what: Niobium, tantalum, and rare earths (and which rare earths and in what forms and purities).


Thanks, by the way, for this analysis of the Molycorp inventory position. ]]> Fri, 22 Mar 2013 19:22:36 -0400
I also noted in the 10k that Silimae produced or sold some 75+ million dollars of "rare metals." Are the details of Silimae's production broken out anywhere? Particularly I'd like to know what percentage of that production/sales was what: Niobium, tantalum, and rare earths (and which rare earths and in what forms and purities).


Thanks, by the way, for this analysis of the Molycorp inventory position. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/892301?source=feed#comment-16357931 16357931 Sat, 16 Mar 2013 00:08:45 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1215291/comments?source=feed#comment-15372771 15372771
There is no first to market advantage for Molycorp. The L(ynas)A(dvanced)M(ate... in Malaysia is now running and will begin to deliver commercial (to SPECIFICATION) materials to AAA customers early in the next quarter. It looks like it will then ramp up to full production (11000 to 22000 MTA) by the end of the year. The mechanically beneficiated ore for more than a year's production is already prepared at Mt Weld and is being shipped to the LAMP as needed. Note that the LAMP process chemistry was designed by Rhodia and is being brought up to speed with EXPERIENCED Chinese supervisors training Malay workers to take their places. Also the marketing has been done in the form of long term supply contracts (10 years).

Molycorp's problem is credibility: Will it be able to supply, on time, to specification? Note that both Molycorp and LYnas have to prove their ability to deliver TO SPECIFICATION, ON-TIME, THE QUANTITIES AGREED, and AT THE NEGOTIATED PRICE. Both are NEW suppliers and as such get a SMALL percentage (10-20) of the demand until the end-user is satisfied that they are RELIABLE. The market today does not need both of them, and the market will decide which one survives.

My guess, and it is, in the end, just that, is that Lynas will win the race due to its much lower operating costs and the experience of its operating team.Lynas' also seesm to have done an excellent marketing job IN ITS OPERATING REGION, Southest Asia.

I think that America's domestic self-sufficiency in all of the critical rare earths is in the hands of Rare Element Resources and Ucore. Both may well be successful, because they are the right size and have the right mix of products. Follow the details coming out of those companies carefully and pay strict attention to the fact that the critical rare earths are much, much, more important than the light rare earths in a balance sheet. The less a supplier has to depend on lanthanum and cerium for revenue the more likely that supplier will be a strong contender and/or the ultimate survivor and a regular supplier. ]]> Fri, 22 Feb 2013 11:59:31 -0500
There is no first to market advantage for Molycorp. The L(ynas)A(dvanced)M(ate... in Malaysia is now running and will begin to deliver commercial (to SPECIFICATION) materials to AAA customers early in the next quarter. It looks like it will then ramp up to full production (11000 to 22000 MTA) by the end of the year. The mechanically beneficiated ore for more than a year's production is already prepared at Mt Weld and is being shipped to the LAMP as needed. Note that the LAMP process chemistry was designed by Rhodia and is being brought up to speed with EXPERIENCED Chinese supervisors training Malay workers to take their places. Also the marketing has been done in the form of long term supply contracts (10 years).

Molycorp's problem is credibility: Will it be able to supply, on time, to specification? Note that both Molycorp and LYnas have to prove their ability to deliver TO SPECIFICATION, ON-TIME, THE QUANTITIES AGREED, and AT THE NEGOTIATED PRICE. Both are NEW suppliers and as such get a SMALL percentage (10-20) of the demand until the end-user is satisfied that they are RELIABLE. The market today does not need both of them, and the market will decide which one survives.

My guess, and it is, in the end, just that, is that Lynas will win the race due to its much lower operating costs and the experience of its operating team.Lynas' also seesm to have done an excellent marketing job IN ITS OPERATING REGION, Southest Asia.

I think that America's domestic self-sufficiency in all of the critical rare earths is in the hands of Rare Element Resources and Ucore. Both may well be successful, because they are the right size and have the right mix of products. Follow the details coming out of those companies carefully and pay strict attention to the fact that the critical rare earths are much, much, more important than the light rare earths in a balance sheet. The less a supplier has to depend on lanthanum and cerium for revenue the more likely that supplier will be a strong contender and/or the ultimate survivor and a regular supplier. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1187511/comments?source=feed#comment-15086121 15086121
My father told me that in 1923 in Detroit he kept the boiler (kerosine fueled like the lamps on the Manitoba farm where he was raised) flame on low during the night and went out when he woke to turn it up to operating level on his Stanley Steamer. Then after breakfast he would drive to his job at a Ford dealer where he among other jobs poured new babbit metal into bearing races.

He told me that he loved to race IC powered cars from stop signs because his Steamer beat them all to hell on start-up torque. He told me that he always thought that the Steamer would survive, but that Henry Ford was too aggressive for them. He also said that a Steamer could beat any electric vehicle he ever saw both in range and performance and PRICE.

Mr Musk and most of your readers still don't understand cost economics. The Tesla is a performance focused rich man's toy. Batteries that give such performance are too expensive and still too cranky (excuse the pun) and temperature sensitive.

You're the one that says "I can explain things to you, but I can't understand them for you." Amen.]]> Sat, 16 Feb 2013 11:29:44 -0500
My father told me that in 1923 in Detroit he kept the boiler (kerosine fueled like the lamps on the Manitoba farm where he was raised) flame on low during the night and went out when he woke to turn it up to operating level on his Stanley Steamer. Then after breakfast he would drive to his job at a Ford dealer where he among other jobs poured new babbit metal into bearing races.

He told me that he loved to race IC powered cars from stop signs because his Steamer beat them all to hell on start-up torque. He told me that he always thought that the Steamer would survive, but that Henry Ford was too aggressive for them. He also said that a Steamer could beat any electric vehicle he ever saw both in range and performance and PRICE.

Mr Musk and most of your readers still don't understand cost economics. The Tesla is a performance focused rich man's toy. Batteries that give such performance are too expensive and still too cranky (excuse the pun) and temperature sensitive.

You're the one that says "I can explain things to you, but I can't understand them for you." Amen.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1129751/comments?source=feed#comment-14460271 14460271
It was Molycorp, the mining venture, that bought Neo, the processing and downstream-product company. To the best of my knowledge Neo never offered to buy Molycorp or any other mining venture.

The first time I ever met Constantine Karryannoupolous in late 2007 I asked him why he didn't build a separation plant in North America. he said that it was because there was no feed stock in North America for such a plant. Further, he said, the Chinese might react negatively to such a venture, since it would mean a purposeful lessening of Neo's dependence on the Chinese rare earth supply chain.

Be very cautious when you talk about intangibles and good will when the Chinese domestic market may the source of a big piece of that valuation.]]> Fri, 01 Feb 2013 15:11:01 -0500
It was Molycorp, the mining venture, that bought Neo, the processing and downstream-product company. To the best of my knowledge Neo never offered to buy Molycorp or any other mining venture.

The first time I ever met Constantine Karryannoupolous in late 2007 I asked him why he didn't build a separation plant in North America. he said that it was because there was no feed stock in North America for such a plant. Further, he said, the Chinese might react negatively to such a venture, since it would mean a purposeful lessening of Neo's dependence on the Chinese rare earth supply chain.

Be very cautious when you talk about intangibles and good will when the Chinese domestic market may the source of a big piece of that valuation.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/723341?source=feed#comment-12729571 12729571 Goldman's Molycorp is not the same as the Molycorp that actual end-users of products enabled by the rare earths see.]]> Tue, 18 Dec 2012 11:10:06 -0500 Goldman's Molycorp is not the same as the Molycorp that actual end-users of products enabled by the rare earths see.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1064411/comments?source=feed#comment-12597061 12597061
Once more your succinctness has silenced the braying of the jackass knee-jerk market technicians.

I note three of your bullet points, which I think have universal applicability in our age of over-the-top hype for share price boosting:

-Expected improvements in energy density and battery performance proved elusive as unicorns;
-Expected economies of scale couldn't be achieved in a mature industry with highly refined manufacturing methods, equipment and supply chains; and
-Profit margins were savaged as manufacturers tried to meet unreasonable price expectations of automakers and match unreasonably optimistic price quotes from competitors.

Please replace "expected' with "projected," and eliminate the words "energy density and battery" in the first bullet point above and you have a universal descriptive sequence for solar and wind power developments also.

Keep up the good work

Jack]]> Fri, 14 Dec 2012 09:23:30 -0500
Once more your succinctness has silenced the braying of the jackass knee-jerk market technicians.

I note three of your bullet points, which I think have universal applicability in our age of over-the-top hype for share price boosting:

-Expected improvements in energy density and battery performance proved elusive as unicorns;
-Expected economies of scale couldn't be achieved in a mature industry with highly refined manufacturing methods, equipment and supply chains; and
-Profit margins were savaged as manufacturers tried to meet unreasonable price expectations of automakers and match unreasonably optimistic price quotes from competitors.

Please replace "expected' with "projected," and eliminate the words "energy density and battery" in the first bullet point above and you have a universal descriptive sequence for solar and wind power developments also.

Keep up the good work

Jack]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1059701/comments?source=feed#comment-12519121 12519121
As I have said before Mr Karyannoupoulos is the best of the best managers in the rare earth space downstream from mining. The very first time I met him in 2007 I asked him why Neo Materials technology didn't build a separation facility in North America. His answer then was that "there is no feed stock" and Neo does not want to be in the mining sector of the supply chain (He didn't specify whether he was then speaking of just North America or any or all of the rest of the world).

Now, Mr Karyannopoulos, has been given a real challenge. He is to take over and guide a business, the model for which would not have been his idea. In fact the operationally challenged board of Molycorp should have from the very first tried to buy Neo and then have used Neo to acquire Molycorp and develop it as a resource for Neo allowing it, Neo, to break free of dependency on China. At the time this was not an option, as I understand it, because Neo would have been reluctant to challenge the Chinese rare earth mining industry, which had a reputation for making supply difficult to those who even attempted to look outside of China.

So, I believe, that now Mr K has taken on a challenge that he apparently would not have done as Neo, which is to manage a haphazardly put together disparate group of companies to magically create a "mine to market' group with a non integrated management and no apparent market advantage of experience, credibility of regular supply, delivery, quality, and lowest cost..

There is no one on earth who would be more qualified to lead such a recovery ( or discovery ) of value in this hodge podge than Constantine Karyannopoulos. I don't think Molycorp has any more borrowing power based on its "assets," so it is up to Mr K to get the job done with what he has in place.

The survival of Molycorp is now up to the company's being RESTRUCTURED and guided in the right direction by Mr Karyannopoulos or under his direction,and to the growth of the global rare earth market, and, of course, always, to the goddess Fortuna. I note that in the ancient Greek pantheon the goddess that became Fortuna to the Romans was Tyche (Fortune) who was always accompanied by her sister,Nemesis (indignation).

My sincerest best wishes to Constantine Karyannopoulos on an opportunity that should have been his from the beginning. I particularly look forward to his taking a hard experienced look at the non Chinese heavy rare earth junior sector where Molycorp is so dreadfully lacking exposure.]]> Wed, 12 Dec 2012 10:21:26 -0500
As I have said before Mr Karyannoupoulos is the best of the best managers in the rare earth space downstream from mining. The very first time I met him in 2007 I asked him why Neo Materials technology didn't build a separation facility in North America. His answer then was that "there is no feed stock" and Neo does not want to be in the mining sector of the supply chain (He didn't specify whether he was then speaking of just North America or any or all of the rest of the world).

Now, Mr Karyannopoulos, has been given a real challenge. He is to take over and guide a business, the model for which would not have been his idea. In fact the operationally challenged board of Molycorp should have from the very first tried to buy Neo and then have used Neo to acquire Molycorp and develop it as a resource for Neo allowing it, Neo, to break free of dependency on China. At the time this was not an option, as I understand it, because Neo would have been reluctant to challenge the Chinese rare earth mining industry, which had a reputation for making supply difficult to those who even attempted to look outside of China.

So, I believe, that now Mr K has taken on a challenge that he apparently would not have done as Neo, which is to manage a haphazardly put together disparate group of companies to magically create a "mine to market' group with a non integrated management and no apparent market advantage of experience, credibility of regular supply, delivery, quality, and lowest cost..

There is no one on earth who would be more qualified to lead such a recovery ( or discovery ) of value in this hodge podge than Constantine Karyannopoulos. I don't think Molycorp has any more borrowing power based on its "assets," so it is up to Mr K to get the job done with what he has in place.

The survival of Molycorp is now up to the company's being RESTRUCTURED and guided in the right direction by Mr Karyannopoulos or under his direction,and to the growth of the global rare earth market, and, of course, always, to the goddess Fortuna. I note that in the ancient Greek pantheon the goddess that became Fortuna to the Romans was Tyche (Fortune) who was always accompanied by her sister,Nemesis (indignation).

My sincerest best wishes to Constantine Karyannopoulos on an opportunity that should have been his from the beginning. I particularly look forward to his taking a hard experienced look at the non Chinese heavy rare earth junior sector where Molycorp is so dreadfully lacking exposure.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/714231?source=feed#comment-12501001 12501001 Tue, 11 Dec 2012 19:14:11 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1024251/comments?source=feed#comment-11920731 11920731
Molycorp does produce mixed neodymium-praseodymium (so-called "didymium) chemical salts, and I believe it makes from that some limited quantities of didymium alloy in Phoenix, AZ, at the former Santoku pilot plant. Molycorp does not now IN THE USA produce HREEs. The DoD wants to investigate a total domestic American supply chain for rare earth permanent magnet alloys. Ucore is the logical choice to anchor that study, because it is committed to exactly what the DoD REQUIRES, an American domestic total supply chain for rare earth permanent magnets.]]> Sat, 24 Nov 2012 11:30:58 -0500
Molycorp does produce mixed neodymium-praseodymium (so-called "didymium) chemical salts, and I believe it makes from that some limited quantities of didymium alloy in Phoenix, AZ, at the former Santoku pilot plant. Molycorp does not now IN THE USA produce HREEs. The DoD wants to investigate a total domestic American supply chain for rare earth permanent magnet alloys. Ucore is the logical choice to anchor that study, because it is committed to exactly what the DoD REQUIRES, an American domestic total supply chain for rare earth permanent magnets.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1024251/comments?source=feed#comment-11917351 11917351
I am having the same thoughts. China is now embarking on the institution of a regulatory regime for the rare earth "production" industry and God knows what other industries are already being regulated or are about to be. This is experimental capitalism. First you have cowboys, then cattle barons, and finally faceless corporations. Governments are always one step behind in trying to get their taxes and pretending to be trying to make industries safer and workers lives better.

Those who think that Chinese multi-billion dollar experienced natural resource producers will simply allow a locally controlled global advantage to just slip away are ridiculous. China is bringing its rare earth production industry under control to make it globally competitive. It may well roar back if and when excess production (excess over China's domestic demand) can bring the benefits of higher profits and productivity through new technologies to Chinese producers.

What's happening now is called "creative destruction." Did any of you graph reading, tea-leaf reading "investors" ever hear of that?

Actually Neo was quite a good and well run company. It was the star of the REAL non-Chinese rare earth sector; it made a consistent profit and was the right size for its market segment. However i think it has been made ineffective by Molycorp's poor judgment and lack of business acumen in the global arena. You can't buy good judgment. You can only hope you have it, and the test is "results" not opportunistic market announcements.]]> Sat, 24 Nov 2012 09:07:34 -0500
I am having the same thoughts. China is now embarking on the institution of a regulatory regime for the rare earth "production" industry and God knows what other industries are already being regulated or are about to be. This is experimental capitalism. First you have cowboys, then cattle barons, and finally faceless corporations. Governments are always one step behind in trying to get their taxes and pretending to be trying to make industries safer and workers lives better.

Those who think that Chinese multi-billion dollar experienced natural resource producers will simply allow a locally controlled global advantage to just slip away are ridiculous. China is bringing its rare earth production industry under control to make it globally competitive. It may well roar back if and when excess production (excess over China's domestic demand) can bring the benefits of higher profits and productivity through new technologies to Chinese producers.

What's happening now is called "creative destruction." Did any of you graph reading, tea-leaf reading "investors" ever hear of that?

Actually Neo was quite a good and well run company. It was the star of the REAL non-Chinese rare earth sector; it made a consistent profit and was the right size for its market segment. However i think it has been made ineffective by Molycorp's poor judgment and lack of business acumen in the global arena. You can't buy good judgment. You can only hope you have it, and the test is "results" not opportunistic market announcements.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1024251/comments?source=feed#comment-11867181 11867181 It seems to me that if Mr Smith had sold shares at $6.20 for any reason other than to pay for a life saving surgical intervention for a close relative the market for MCP would have simply gone down the drain. He had therefore just the two choices, do nothing or buy some shares. In fact since he netted more than $10 million on the insider sell out in which Ross Bhappu (On behalf of Resource Capital(?)) netted several hundred million dollars wouldn't a purchase of a million shares by Mr Smith have been a more appropriate and commendable vote of confidence? Mr Bhappu, as I recall bought 2,500,000 shares at $10, recently, so he, Bhappu has already lost $7,500,000.00 since then. If MCP goes to $27 as Byron Capital is projecting then Mr Bhappu stands to make another $40,000,000.00 while Mr Smith would net some $400,000.00. If you are looking for an internal vote of confidence Mr Bhappu has Mr Smith beat by 100 to 1.

Lynas said, I believe, that after a six week first batch time that their system would be brought up to 400 tons a week of product in the second quarter of its going into full operation. I think that is ambitious. As I understand it Molycorp is not going to run its original SX plant after it starts the new plant. The question is; How long will it take to bring the new plant up to 400 tons a week of product output. I would think that as of today Lynas has a slightly shorter lead time. If both projects succeed then by the end of 2013 they will be together producing an annualized 40,000 ADDITIONAL TO THE EXISTING MARKET tons of light rare earth products. Isn't just this fact alone a market damper for lanthanum, cerium, and even, perhaps for neodymium-praseodymium prices?

Do we know the break-even points for Molycorp or Lynas? How little do they need to produce to keep operating in the black? Stay tuned as reality and I think lower-cost competition sorts out the true market size.]]> Wed, 21 Nov 2012 18:17:33 -0500 It seems to me that if Mr Smith had sold shares at $6.20 for any reason other than to pay for a life saving surgical intervention for a close relative the market for MCP would have simply gone down the drain. He had therefore just the two choices, do nothing or buy some shares. In fact since he netted more than $10 million on the insider sell out in which Ross Bhappu (On behalf of Resource Capital(?)) netted several hundred million dollars wouldn't a purchase of a million shares by Mr Smith have been a more appropriate and commendable vote of confidence? Mr Bhappu, as I recall bought 2,500,000 shares at $10, recently, so he, Bhappu has already lost $7,500,000.00 since then. If MCP goes to $27 as Byron Capital is projecting then Mr Bhappu stands to make another $40,000,000.00 while Mr Smith would net some $400,000.00. If you are looking for an internal vote of confidence Mr Bhappu has Mr Smith beat by 100 to 1.

Lynas said, I believe, that after a six week first batch time that their system would be brought up to 400 tons a week of product in the second quarter of its going into full operation. I think that is ambitious. As I understand it Molycorp is not going to run its original SX plant after it starts the new plant. The question is; How long will it take to bring the new plant up to 400 tons a week of product output. I would think that as of today Lynas has a slightly shorter lead time. If both projects succeed then by the end of 2013 they will be together producing an annualized 40,000 ADDITIONAL TO THE EXISTING MARKET tons of light rare earth products. Isn't just this fact alone a market damper for lanthanum, cerium, and even, perhaps for neodymium-praseodymium prices?

Do we know the break-even points for Molycorp or Lynas? How little do they need to produce to keep operating in the black? Stay tuned as reality and I think lower-cost competition sorts out the true market size.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1006891/comments?source=feed#comment-11598381 11598381
I have come to the conclusion that Molycorp needed much more R&D before it undertook a massive increase in capacity and a mind-numbing attempt to become expert in a group of (related) but individually complex technologies to process rare earths into individual metals, alloys, and sophisticated products such as magnets.

The driver for all of this was greed for the quick big buck and hubris was its undoing.

I would love to have a disinterested judgement from Constantine Karyonnapoulos, the former CEO of Neo Materials, on what he thought of Molycorp's technology and R&D once he had access to it. I doubt that it was coincidence that Molycorp's falling out with M&K came just 6 months after Molycorp had acquired Neo, which was (is?) a first class rare earth separation and refining company and a technological leader in strip cast rare earth permanent magnet alloys for the bonded alloy market. I might add that Neo was also first-class at evaluating and acquiring high tech metal recyclers and purifiers also. If Neo had bought Molycorp that would have given the venture a high probability of ultimate success.

I'm sure we'll have to wait for the final judgement on Molycorp, but I suspect the wait won't be that long.]]> Wed, 14 Nov 2012 13:05:25 -0500
I have come to the conclusion that Molycorp needed much more R&D before it undertook a massive increase in capacity and a mind-numbing attempt to become expert in a group of (related) but individually complex technologies to process rare earths into individual metals, alloys, and sophisticated products such as magnets.

The driver for all of this was greed for the quick big buck and hubris was its undoing.

I would love to have a disinterested judgement from Constantine Karyonnapoulos, the former CEO of Neo Materials, on what he thought of Molycorp's technology and R&D once he had access to it. I doubt that it was coincidence that Molycorp's falling out with M&K came just 6 months after Molycorp had acquired Neo, which was (is?) a first class rare earth separation and refining company and a technological leader in strip cast rare earth permanent magnet alloys for the bonded alloy market. I might add that Neo was also first-class at evaluating and acquiring high tech metal recyclers and purifiers also. If Neo had bought Molycorp that would have given the venture a high probability of ultimate success.

I'm sure we'll have to wait for the final judgement on Molycorp, but I suspect the wait won't be that long.]]>