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brando719

brando719
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  • Anatomy Of A Market Bubble [View article]
    Hello,

    Appreciate you sharing your insights. I am wondering where you are getting your total credit expansion data. If I look at All Sectors: Credit Market Instruments on FRED, I see credit going from 50,848 in Q1 2008 to 57,088 in Q1 2014. This change is under 7 trillion but you show credit expansion over 10T. Just wondering why you can't use the data series I mentioned above. Cheers.
    Sep 22, 2014. 10:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Emerson Radio Corp. Update [View article]
    Ok thanks for the response
    Jun 5, 2014. 11:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Emerson Radio Corp. Update [View article]
    Thanks for the article. I see they could be on the hook for $4.5M to the IRS if the IRS finds they were not correct in issuing the special dividend in March 2010 and can't get the money from Grande (which may be very hard since they have went through bankruptcy).

    Also, from the recent 10-Q, "Also, with respect to NOPA 1, the IRS is (i) challenging the position of the Company with respect to the way the Company’s controlled foreign corporation in Macao (the “Macao CFC”) recorded its product sales during Fiscal 2010 and Fiscal 2011 and (ii) asserting that an upward adjustment to the Company’s Fiscal 2010 and Fiscal 2011 taxable income of $4,981,520 and $5,680,182, respectively, is required. the Company estimates that it could be liable for a maximum in taxes, penalties and interest of approximately $13.3 million pertaining to NOPA 1, in the aggregate, for its Fiscal 2010, Fiscal 2011, Fiscal 2012 and Fiscal 2013 periods. However, because the Company’s current assessment is that its appeal of NOPA 1 is more likely than not to be successful, the Company has not recorded any liability to its December 31, 2013 or March 31, 2013 balance sheets related to NOPA 1.

    So if they lose both of these, they will be on the hook for $17.8M. I am wondering if you have any insight into these 2 issues. If the IRS finds they are at fault on these it creates a massively different outcome for the fair value of the company.

    Thanks,

    Brandon
    Jun 5, 2014. 11:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Silver Bull Be A 10-Bagger In 2014? [View article]
    Thanks for the informative article. I see in the most recent quarterly report ending January 31, 2014, they went through close to $1M in cash burn. The CEO said cash burn would be around $160K a month so this is more than double what he said. Why do you think the burn is so much higher than he said? At this rate they have 4 quarters of cash burn left. Given the brutal market for silver, why would a company bid on these guys instead of just slowly letting them burn all their cash and then picking it up super cheap? Thanks
    Jun 2, 2014. 06:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cardtronics: Aggressive Accounting And Secular Decline Drive 40-70% Downside [View article]
    Thanks for the easily understandable response. That clarifies everything for me and think you present a very good thesis.
    Jun 2, 2014. 05:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cardtronics: Aggressive Accounting And Secular Decline Drive 40-70% Downside [View article]
    Hello,

    Thanks for the very interesting trade idea. I am just wondering about your earnings multiples when you say: "Despite its exclusive focus on the secularly declining ATM market, CATM trades at the rich valuation of a high-growth firm, with trailing and forward P/E ratios of 37x and 26x". I see FY 2014EPS of $2.25 from the company (http://reut.rs/1psz2ze). This would put them at 13x P/E which is still too high in my opinion but am wondering how you get 26x. Are you saying 26x based on 5 year depreciation or something? Thanks.
    May 30, 2014. 03:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Veeva Systems: A Top 20 Competitive Displacement, Customer Dissatisfaction, DB Markets Research, And Strange Coincidences [View article]
    Thanks for the article Suhail. What do you make of the current earnings? Still targeting $8.00 or have things changed? Cheers.
    May 30, 2014. 11:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lamar Advertising: 30% Upside, Very Limited Downside [View article]
    Thanks for the very interesting article. Based on the hedge fund exposure in the name I think you are on to something. I had a question about calculating the dividend payout ratio. Is it industry convention to take the dividend/AFFO to get the payout ratio for REITs? if so I see LAMR at 79% based on the low end of management's 2014 guidance. Would this be a high payout ratio compared to the comparables in the table above? Any insight would be appreciated. Thanks
    May 28, 2014. 04:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Automodular Corporation: A Special Situation Decoupled From Market Volatility [View article]
    Thanks for the very insightful article. Your analysis looks good to me and I think Quitonmathews is double counting like you say. However, given the discount to the intrinsic value if your analysis is correct, why isn't management just gobbling up stock? They presumably have insight into the next 7 months and should be able to determine what the approximate liquidation value will be. Any idea why they wouldn't be buying?
    May 13, 2014. 03:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SuperCom CEO: We Just Tripled Our Revenues And We're Only Getting Started [View article]
    Yeah, I am in the same boat as Asterixny and wondering about his first point:

    1)An announcement came out that $25mm was won in new government contracts. I can't tell if this is in addition to the $24mm(ish) in expected revenue for 2014 post the Oti acquisition. The announcement didn't make this clear to me.

    Does anyone have the answer to this question? Depending on the answer, it really changes the valuation of this company.

    Cheers.
    May 2, 2014. 01:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Barron's Article Creates Great Buying Opportunity For Green Mountain Coffee Roasters [View article]
    HI Dr. Terry,

    Been following your articles and find them very interesting and you come up with some very good points. Just wondering what position you exactly have on? It says this article was written Aug 5 but you are selling an Aug 2 call? You mention you have 4 spreads on as well and cannot see what spreads you are exactly putting on. Thanks.
    Aug 6, 2013. 10:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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