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  • How To Survive A Secular Stagnation [View article]
    Great comment and right on point.

    The MIT-Harvard cabal of macro economists tries to hide the role of TBTF banks and the top 1% in the US and global meltdown. Instead, the cabal posits front and center a hypothetical (some economists state non existent) boogeyman declared without definition "secular stagnation" (rhymes with 1970s "stagflation").

    Some argue this is the hackneyed "LOOK IT'S A WOOKIE!" distraction from what are the most important concerns. Others argue this is a "snipe hunt" wasting time and effort.

    I argue this is the intellectual elite planning a robbery. Of the the working class of course. Peg inflation at 4% from now on. Keep raising the retirement age so it stays out of reach. Dissipate workers' "excess savings" well before they are needed. Keep the workers slaving until they die. Keep the American dream out of reach of more and more citizens. Get rewarded for academic prowess.

    I agree that the middle class is the heart and soul of civilization, and when you crush them Rome falls and the empire collapses.
    Aug 30 10:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Plus Twitch Equals A Whole New Game [View article]
    Azam, everywhere I look there are "green shoots" among Amazon's many synergistic business lines.

    Amazon has a lot of room to grow globally in all its businesses.
    Aug 30 09:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon Plus Twitch Equals A Whole New Game [View article]
    Hayweed, Jeff Bezos is ALL IN with his Amazon stock holdings. The Amazon C level executives are heavily investing in Amazon stock. Job candidates are lining up to work for Amazon. Having an Amazon job on one's resume opens many future opportunities.

    SA readers: All these Amazon employees are executing a strategy fully aware of how it benefits their personal investment in Amazon.
    Aug 30 09:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Buy: Near-Term Outlook Is Downbeat [View article]
    All this happens a short two years after Walmart, Target, and Best Buy loudly proclaim they will crush Amazon with defensive strategies like price matching, in store pickup of Web purchases, store within a store displays with trained staff.

    I wonder what store managers think of their C level executives now. What will be the total effect of recently released Amazon Firefly app?
    Aug 30 09:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Survive A Secular Stagnation [View article]
    Vercingetorix, can I just summarize your comment as "we are all so screwed".

    My formal education focused on optimizing the marshaling of resources (e.g., capital, labor, natural resources, and technology) for societal gain. Forrester and others promulgated "linear programming" to identify the optimum as combining all the available opportunities in optimal proportions or weightings.

    I view non-sense terminology as indicating mental weakness. Failure to understand history (e.g., the 20th Century) beyond macro economics theories, leads to the next waves of bigger and bigger failures.

    SA readers, those 900 academics in one cloister cannot define "secular stagnation" or basically agree on any "macro economic mechanism" supporting it. As an alternative, drill down to focus on poor laws, fiscal chicanery, distorted tax rates, improper allocation of resources, disruption of the banking industry, US Congress.
    Aug 29 12:30 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Majority Of Amazon's Acquisitions And Strategies Centered Around Prime [View article]
    James, we see distinctly different futures for Amazon. However, we do agree on the central role of Amazon Prime (e.g., Costco makes almost all its net revenue from memberships) in that future.

    Look at ALL those B&M retailers, like Walmart, Target, and Best Buy, who just two years ago announced they would "crush Amazon" with marketing strategies like "price matching" and in store pickup of Web purchases. All B&M major retailers are searching outside for new C level executives.

    Look at Netflix, Amazon has its own production house with very good projects. Amazon has its own media outlet branded as "Instant" and "Prime".

    Keep digging and find "green shoots" everywhere.
    Aug 29 12:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Survive A Secular Stagnation [View article]
    Rseye, too simple a formula to be interpreted.

    Mr. El-Erian, very interesting ebook. Exposes the soft underbelly of the MIT-Harvard macro-economic academics and policy want-a-bees. This brain trust lacks a 360 degree perspective on many historical events (i.e., 2008 pop of residential real estate bubble, 2000 pop of tech bubble, negative effects of US Congress post 2008, tactical decades long boost from WWII on technological progress and US industries).

    The US Fed has clearly defined "lanes" and must stay in those lanes (i.e., just say "NO" to self serving politicians). These MIT-Harvard academics hanker for the adrenaline rush of 2008-2009 when important people ACTUALLY LISTENED TO THEM. These academics whole career depends on "shopping" radical new economic theories replete with untried policies to staffers and political leaders. These academics would do many things to enjoy in the policy limelight again.

    There is NO EVIDENCE to support either PIMCO's "new normal" or the MIT-Harvard cabal's "secular stagnation" (i.e., historically rhymes with "stagflation" ala Carter and then Reagan administrations). The ebook so states; maybe there is a maybe of a hint but no one knows.

    The bulk of grounded evidence points to very poor US Congress laws widely touted as progressive and fair and lined with good intentions (and plenty of money for politicians, backers, and the folks back home). Since 2008, real working economists estimate the US Congress has slowed down US GDP growth by 1% or more by shenanigans (public and hidden), and that alone reduces previous 3% to the 2% GDP growth seen. Yes, world demographics are scary.

    US banking is a work in progress because of Congress. US tax codes are bollixed. Wall Street seeks ways to screw Main Street because responsible banking is too boring. Anchoring on the past is no way to plan for the 21st Century.
    Aug 29 09:55 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Xiaomi: Copied Apple's DNA? [View article]
    I cannot figure out how a company grows from nothing to the size of Xiaomi in just 4 years. Look at hiring all those employees. Look at designing, prototyping, coding, testing, focus groups. Look at building factories, buying equipment, installing assembly lines, training employees. It seems too good to be true.

    The only physical evidence for Xiaomi's existence are its Web site and all those smartphones.

    If Xiaomi devices where not known for overheating and randomly bricking, I would consider that Xiaomi was merely a front. The lack of reliability indicates poor management processes.
    Aug 28 03:17 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Seeks Relevance With Spreadtrum Tie-Up [View article]
    Ajay, your China analysis is right. However, Intel has lost much, including the WINTEL duopoly, uncontested x86 monopoly, fab process supremacy.

    Intel HAS lost relevance since 2007 as Intel serially failed with netbooks, ultrabooks, AI, UIs, 14nm node, etc. Intel HAS lost relevance since 2013 as Broadwell 14nm chips were delayed possibly a year or more (i.e., estimating 25M Broadwell chips in 2014 maximum; current Broadwell chips have serious errata requiring redesigns; many of SoC circuits offloaded on companion 32nm chip).

    Intel offers 3rd party ODMs the prospect of 2% net revenue margin devices. ARMy DIYers sell 30-40% net revenue margin devices.

    Sales show ARM rules mobile. Developers target ARM mobile devices.
    Aug 28 12:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Seeks Relevance With Spreadtrum Tie-Up [View article]
    Russ, if your "tie-in" analysis is right, what happens to Intel's 60-70% chip margins?

    Traditionally, Intel has sold to several distinct markets (e.g., chip mod'ers and overclockers who overpay). Intel's future looks much darker because Intel will compete with TSMC, Samsung, and GF on a level playing field.

    Intel has NEVER SUCCEEDED in a level playing field market. Remember, IBM anointed Intel and Microsoft as the de facto PC standard. Before IBM's action, Intel always had been back in the CPU pack including MOSTEK and Motorola and DEC. Today's investors anchor on Intel as the WINTEL duopoly. The harsh truth is that since 2007, Intel has serially failed with ALL major product innovations in HW and SW.
    Aug 28 11:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Seeks Relevance With Spreadtrum Tie-Up [View article]
    Bob, the author was addressing the multi billion dollar Intel fabs sitting idle and some incomplete. Intel cannot make or sell enough chips to run much above 50% capacity.

    The author knows that top tier businesses are DIY SoC designers. Apple, Qualcomm, Broadcom, Samsung, IBM, Oracle, HP, Microsoft are leaving Intel behind.

    The author knows that merchant fabs are doing very well. TSMC, Samsung, GF. The IBM, Samsung, GF alliance has started FinFET production.

    Intel PR appears desperate since it keeps tossing out these PR stories with so much enthusiasm.
    Aug 28 11:42 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Amazon Afford Twitch? [View article]
    Amazon mashes up "content" with "social network", once again. Amazon has a hat trick of technology (e.g., Web sites, customer ratings & comments, AWS, Kindle, Fire), bandwidth (e.g., global clouds with Internet access), and content (e.g., Instant Streaming, Prime Streaming, buy or rent; for shows and movies and games and books).

    Amazon AWS is a natural gaming network for the MMORG gaming community.

    Amazon Twitch is a natural social network of gamers.
    Aug 28 11:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Regulator Clarifies Microsoft Probe, Monopoly Stance [View article]
    What would it take to make the problem go away?

    Anyone betting this is the tip of a large iceberg?

    I am betting local Chinese industry is involved. China is pushing Chinese businesses to the front of the line in global marketplaces. Foreign competitors operating in China include Qualcomm, Microsoft, Samsung, Apple, BWM, GM, etc. President Xi has begun. Google "China" and these foreign companies as a starting point.
    Aug 28 11:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's A8 Processor Launch And Its Impact On Intel's Mobile CPUs [View article]
    pk, Intel is massively screwing up. Intel is in big trouble ALL ON ITS OWN. Intel PR fudges, deflects, covers up. The stream of Intel PR BS hides the problems. The latest Intel slides have numbers refuting the words on the same slides, and experts talk about that.

    My analysis starts with late 2007 "netbooks", which were way underpowered with glitchy streaming media and slow network ports and slow graphics. Intel convinced Ballmer that 3rd party ODMs were incompetent, so Ballmer pushed hard (i.e., baseball bats in meetings) for the future Windows 8 Metro UI with minimal dynamic graphics.

    Next major stop on the Intel tour is 2012 "ultrabooks", which were way overpriced with short battery life and running way too hot to hold. At this point the world's mavens declared Apple MacBook Airs the best Windows laptop in the world. Ballmer took this as a personal crusade to develop what became "Surface" devices.

    Peppered all along is Intel PR announcing crazy AI, facial gesture UI, hand gesture UI, big bad data, a dying Moore's Law IS ALIVE, until no one in the industry trusts Intel PR, until customers no longer pay attention.

    I am leaving out a lot of detail. Intel FinFETs are hinky; the 2nd generation Intel FinFET is far flakier than the 1st generation. Moore's Law is now dead, and a much slower shrink rate ends for MOS silicon planar devices and FinFET devices before 2022.

    Broadwell chips are CPUs mounted on "modules" together with a much larger 32nm node IO hub chip. You see, Intel cannot begin to place a complete SoC on a single chip like ARMy DIY competitors have been selling for years. Intel sells modules with one small Broadwell CPU chip, and Intel includes a large IO hub chip it does NOT want you to notice, and Intel sells additional support chips to complete a mobile device. LOOK AT THE COMPLETE BOM for Intel inside, and walk away.

    Apple, Samsung, Microsoft, and others do not WANT Intel chips at any price. The bottom feeder ODM companies accept highly discounted Intel chips. "Intel Inside" means 2% net revenue for 3rd party ODMs. DIY means 30-50% net revenue for high quality devices.

    Intel sells high end CPUs for over $2,000.00 while competitors sell SoCs starting at $1.00 and staying below $100.00. Do the math, and include complete BoM purchase price, lifetime power cost, lifetime cooling cost.
    Aug 28 11:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's A8 Processor Launch And Its Impact On Intel's Mobile CPUs [View article]
    Broadwell is a chip module with 2 chips and some external analog devices. Notice the small nearly square black chip package; that is the 14nm CPU chip. Notice the large rectangular black chip package; that is the 32nm IO hub chip. Intel could NOT place all the necessary circuits on the 14nm chip, so IO runs on a much older 32nm fab process chip with higher power and heat.

    Intel PR boasts about FinFETs but the big chip is 32nm planar fab processing.

    Intel PR boasts about FinFETs but Intel fabs cannot place enough transistors on a 14nm node chip to fill out a SoC.

    Broadwell is much worse than having much of the SoC on an obsolete 32nm chip. The Broadwell module requires additional, separate Intel support chips and more.

    Apple's A7 and future A8 use state of the art fab processes. Apple does NOT play PR games like Intel.
    Aug 28 12:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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