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  • Amazon's Shareholders Are Swimming Naked, And The Tide Is About To Go Out [View article]
    Akshay, very obviously, Amazon is NOT listening to you, Bezos is NOT heeding you, 3rd party sellers and buyers and Prime members and people showrooming are NOT paying attention to you.

    You must have a target audience in mind. Is it sheeple? R U short Amazon?

    Why do you ignore gross revenue, operating income? You completely ignore Amazon's statements and business plan.

    Are you ignoring all those Amazon'd competitors? Walmart in the US is losing store traffic and sales are flat (down after inflation adjustment). Walmart in Canada is in sorry condition.

    I suggest you scrap your current analyses and start over with more modern and formal and complete analyses: business model, products and services, revenue streams, FCF estimates, identified competitors, distinct national/regional markets, disruptive new technologies. Then, you would not merely parrot Paulo.
    Aug 19 11:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Big Microsoft Move Just Not Justified [View article]
    Dana, nice article. Have you plagiarized Network World?

    Network World has a flood of negative Microsoft articles now. Nadella as a "no change" CEO. Surface. Windows 8 and 9. Bad patch with BSOD. Only Windows and Office matter because of their gross revenue and super high margins.

    Even if you haven't, I have been reusing Networld World's great quantitative information. Microsoft's fiscal year recently ended.
    Aug 18 07:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Investors Should React To The Windows 9 Preview [View article]
    techy, you are making unwarranted assumptions. Microsoft's margins on Windows OSs are above 90 percent. Microsoft screws up to force customers to buy the next version, with another 90+ percent profit margin.

    Microsoft's business model is unique because Microsoft's customers are uniquely generous. Ballmer used to spend a lot of time figuring how to even out all the sequential fiscal years so he could engineer Microsoft's income statement. Ballmer got sooo busy he did not have time for mobile, touch screen UIs, xBox, Bing, etc. They were just too small to move the income statement.
    Aug 18 07:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Investors Should React To The Windows 9 Preview [View article]
    NYC banker, Microsoft is the only sane one laughing...all the way to the bank. Windows 8 has a 90+ percent profit margin. The joke is on all Windows customers preparing to migrate to Windows 9.

    This is why the joke is really on Microsoft customers: Microsoft screws up worse than ever before and then Microsoft charges customers ever higher license fees to upgrade from an obviously bad product (e.g., Vista, Windows 8). Microsoft keeps shaking them down.

    The outside world sees what is going on. Microsoft customers are unaware like that proverbial frog in the pot of water. One might suspect that Microsoft customers enjoy abuse at the hands of Microsoft.
    Aug 18 07:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Investors Should React To The Windows 9 Preview [View article]
    parnest, sound analysis. Windows XP was the best all around version ever; Vista was the worst ever up until then; Windows 7 is stable and easy to use; Windows 8 is a worse failure than Vista with a crazy Metro UI. Of course, these comparisons are restricted to Microsoft OSs. Solaris was way better than all Microsoft OSs, and that was back in the late 1980s and 1990s (dtrace was an amazing performance tool). I will not compare Apple's Mac OS X or iOS because that inflames the Microsoft fanbois.

    With Windows XP gone and Windows 7 support scheduled to terminate in a few years, all Microsoft customers have been screwed by Microsoft again. No sane enterprise wants to use Windows 8. Windows 9 is scheduled for release so soon after Windows 8 that no major new features could be developed and thoroughly tested. Oh, yeah, we all know who the beta testers are.

    Microsoft has all customers on a Microsoft controlled treadmill. Microsoft is shaking out their money. Microsoft is forcing all customers to waste valuable time upgrading on Microsoft's rigged treadmill.

    More people are pointing out that nothing significant has changed under Nadella's reign. Same two cash cows. Same abusing customers with constant changes and patches and forced upgrades and increased license fees and blue screens (just this week again).
    Aug 18 07:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Real Threat To Android And Apple? [View article]
    Douglas, one article too soon. Why did you mention Amazon? Is Amazon the 3rd ecosystem?

    You forget that Microsoft is competing with free. Apple iOS is free; so is Google Android and Chrome; so is Tizen; so is Open Office; and so on.

    You forget that Microsoft gives Windows away for FREE on less than 9 inch diagonal screen personal devices.

    The old WINTEL duopoly is dead. Microsoft has two established cash cows based on high switching costs and network effects: Windows and Office. The other projects are net money losers for Microsoft or drive sales of Windows (e.g., developers). Microsoft has already ported both Windows and Office to ARM HW and Office to iOS operating system. Microsoft has changed its business model to subscriptions for Azure storage, Office, Azure SaaS/IaaS where Microsoft competes directly against Google and AWS.

    Microsoft in the best of worlds cannot reap the old ~80 margins going forward. Free means a negative margin. Nokia has middle priced phones. Today, Windows runs on 15-30 percent of all personal devices (and dropping fast).

    NOW, can you explain Amazon's stock price? Is Microsoft becoming irrelevant?
    Aug 18 11:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Amazon Gone Too Far? [View article]
    Douglas, good article. You obviously get ecosystems as "differentiators" for personal devices. Amazon has scored a hat trick of technology, content, and bandwidth providing products and services. Yet, one Consumer Reports editor is fixated on Google's ecosystem. Cognitive dissonance...

    SA readers, ALL smartphone customers are blocked from competing ecosystems. This is BASIC business analysis of moats (e.g., creating high switching costs based on apps and cloud storage, etc.). At the same time, ALL smartphone customers are free to use telephony and the Internet.
    Aug 18 11:32 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Amazon Fire Phone Will Probably Do Even Worse Than Expected [View article]
    Andreas, the Amazon Fire phone is a media consumption device with all of Amazon's streaming content as well as user's cloud storage to provide online content.

    The one hand operation is perfect for media consumption.

    Amazon can apply deep machine learning to improve both hand motion recognition as commands and also Firefly object recognition. Amazon is collecting tons of data from Fire phone users for learning. Amazon can customize each Fire phone to its user.

    SA readers, give the Amazon Fire phone a year to mature before deciding.
    Aug 17 03:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Federal Reserve Will Never Be Able To Get Out Of QE [View article]
    Asbytec, please review my original comment in this thread. My words and statements are being twisted, so other people can replace them with something very different.

    First, can everyone agree that the US Fed will stop buying debt to increase the US Fed's total holdings, in October 2014 at the current rate of decrease?

    This action will fix the maximum size of the US Fed's holdings at over $3 trillion. Before the end of 2014, many knowledgeable people expect the US Fed to end "the taper" and refocus on scheduling raising the "prime interest rate".

    Second, I originally stated in Observation 1 that the US Fed "can idly sit" on all its holdings. I do NOT suppose to predict US Fed actions. The US Fed does NOT have to sell its holdings like some claim. NO fire sale. NO roiling the US markets. NO inflation. NO Fed induced craziness.

    This action depends on the state of the economy. Knowledgeable people view over $3 trillion in US Fed debt holdings as an easy way to eventually remove $3 trillion from circulation slowly over time. When the time is ripe, the US Fed can take measured steps.

    It is frustrating to see your words interpreted completely wrong so another can sow FUD.
    Aug 16 10:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Few Positives And Negatives For Microsoft [View article]
    techy, I have run two Windows Phones. I have studied user sentiment on Windows phones. Ouch! Microsoft phone customers are irate.

    Actually, Nadella agrees with me. Nadella has announced that Microsoft will redo Windows to streamline the OS. Nadella has put Windows 8/9 on a major diet. Sometime in the future, some version of Windows "x" might be a much cleaner OS tuned for mobile devices.

    When Windows 8 first came out, I checked its size, running footprint, battery life, etc. Windows Phone 8 is a dog. Windows Phone 8 is a battery hog. Windows Phone 8 actually blue screens sometimes...reboot.

    techy, do you really believe that Windows 8.x could ever run efficiently across the full spectrum...on servers, PCs, tablets, smartphones, and budget phones? I HAVE A BRIDGE to sell you! Some day you could have an epiphany...Ballmer had everything screwed up for years and Microsoft was becoming irrelevant.
    Aug 16 09:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cisco Hopes Less Staff Means More Revenues [View article]
    Andrew, I suggest that you research Cisco much better in order to understand Cisco.

    First, Cisco is laying off about 6,000 employees who lack the requisite knowledge and skill sets for the future. Cisco has explained these employees will be replaced with new hires with software, security, and other skill sets.

    Second, Cisco annually lays off some employees in order to make room for new hires. Cisco has an informal policy of updating its employees in order to lead the computing and communications industry.

    Third, Cisco has continually reinvented itself from a router company, to a switch company, to a media communications company, to a server company, to a SDN company, to a security company, and so on.

    It bothers me to see "business as usual over decades" twisted into a "gloom and doom" SA article.
    Aug 16 09:30 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. sales disappoint for Wal-Mart in Q2 [View news story]
    James, the cost was LESS THAN $50.
    Aug 16 12:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Few Positives And Negatives For Microsoft [View article]

    Microsoft is fighting against "free" software. Apple iOS, Google Android and Chrome, Linux, many Apache Projects.

    In the cloud, Apache Project software rules. No one would give a second thought to Microsoft Windows Server except for necessary legacy inhouse applications. LAMP is the starting point for Web servers. Hadoop, free SQL, Lucine, Solr, Cassandra, and so on are the best for commercial Internet.

    Microsoft Windows is a dog on smart phones. Who would give a second thought to Windows Phone. iOS and Android are much better from all perspectives. Windows Phone owners are generating strong negative sentiment against Microsoft's over promising and under delivering. Of course, Microsoft has always forced PC customers to be beta testers. This fails miserably with smartphones.

    Salesforce, AWS, Google search and maps and apps, Apple's ecosystem, cheap Android smartphones, and so on. Microsoft has become irrelevant. Those holdout corporate IT departments buying only Microsoft are being downsized and replaced.

    Microsoft needs a mayday button.
    Aug 14 08:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Federal Reserve Will Never Be Able To Get Out Of QE [View article]
    SI, we see different pictures.

    The US Fed will soon end its "buying program" in October 2014. After ending, the US Fed will NOT reinvest in more bad debts. So, perhaps you agree with me on Observation 1 after all.

    The US Fed controls the Prime Rate and Money Supply. The US Congress controls government spending and tax rates. And on and on. We can disagree on the inflation risk in the next 6 years, but I know I am right on this.

    I cede the vast range of exogenous risks that could cause inflation or deflation in the next 6 years. Risks are estimated and incorporated into negotiated credit and equity and production investment prices.
    Aug 14 07:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Real Reason Microsoft Is Losing Money On Its Surface Line Of Tablets [View article]
    ID, no joke.

    Parse the context! She uses a large desktop monitor plugged into her Surface tablet. She uses a wireless keyboard and MOUSE.

    The other SA readers understand this excludes the touch UI.

    Wireless access points, plugging her Surface into conference room projectors, plugging in an outsider's USB stick, someone using her Surface for just a few seconds, theft of her Surface, and so on.

    Again, the other SA readers understand.
    Aug 14 07:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment