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  • Apple's Huge Ecosystem Blunder [View article]
    James, you are hawking your wares. Both your previous SA article and this SA article are click bait to put SA reader eyes on your pitch for your newsletter. If this is the way SA swings, SA readers will leave in droves. The placement of this is the first piece of evidence:

    "If you would like to subscribe for free to my free newsletter where I distribute my published work plus some exclusive stuff I don't publish anywhere else, you can simply sign up here:"

    Yesterday, SA deleted my comment questioning your motive for the previous SA article. You risk SA readers' capital.
    Sep 13 09:42 AM | 38 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple $700: Don't Get Burned Again [View article]
    madness, you are right because smart consumers know that the Apple garden is the world's best place to enjoy your media, keep your data, sync your devices, protect your digital life.

    Meanwhile, the Nexus 7 has received lukewarm reviews on the Internet. Ashraf has his enthusiastic writing style spiced with hyperbole. Google is years behind Apple with mobile smart devices. Motorola is battling Microsoft over patents.

    Ashraf has concocted an improbable scenario in order to attack a strawman. No one thinks that Apple is shooting up to $700 soon. So, Ashraf feigns a debate on a $700 share price while punching away at Apple products. He continues to pump and dump.
    Aug 19 09:41 AM | 24 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's China Mobile Problem [View article]
    Michael, you have demolished Ashraf's whole article by falsifying Ashraf's core assumption that Apple needs China Mobile more than China Mobile needs Apple. Simplely wrong.

    Fellow SA readers, Apple has already sold (per Mr. Blair, not my number) 45,000,000 iPhones on the China Mobile cell networks. I estimate a deal would add 10-15 million more in 2014. Apple got the whole price of each iPhone sale; China Mobile got nada and still has to support 45 million iPhones. Any rational communist government would not be throwing away billions of dollars per year. Obviously, there is a hidden demand.
    Dec 18 11:02 AM | 20 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Time To Scrap The iPod [View article]
    Agree! I use my iPod Shuffle during endurance workouts.

    This whole SA article talks nonsense. Apple has a family of world class iPod devices together with an integrated, world class ecosystem. Customers will continue to purchase iPod devices for a very long time. If Apple dropped iPods as the article writer wants, Apple would lose a lot more customers than just its iPod customers.
    Jul 6 05:09 PM | 19 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Continues To Bleed Market Share [View article]
    I went looking for SA and ended up in the Sunday Comics. This is Elmer FUD!

    Seriously, SA readers must analyze the SA contributors and SA editors. They are people with their own axes to grind. Some are very obviously biased. Some play toooo loose with the facts.

    I got MB's number the time he wrote an article that showed 2,000,000,000 smartphones in the global market...2 years before the announcement of the first iPhone. This could never be because Apple defined the smartphone...before Apple was Blackberry with keypads...just feature phones. Soooo, I did due diligence and found very credible sources clearly stating there are between 2,000,000,000 and 3,000,000,000 active smartphones being used today...9 years after MB's chart said 2 billion (make believe) smartphones. MB doctors his information. MB cherry picks sources, including unvetted, provably impossible information (like 2 billion smartphones in 2004-2005).

    Reader beware. My due diligence says exactly the opposite of MB: Samsung is bleeding market share and losing profits to Chinese competitors (and soon to Indian competitors). My due diligence says Apple won in court twice; next up in court is Google. What Oracle failed to accomplish (I am relieved; software is not fiction or song lyrics), Apple will. Maybe the Sunday comics are more relevant than some believe.
    May 4 10:00 AM | 19 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Mobile Payments, A $40-60bn Opportunity [View article]
    Apple has a choice. Apple has already chosen iBeacon and related Bluetooth 4.x communications. Apple uses Bluetooth in smart spaces and in personal area networks (PANs).

    Look at Costco's bar code scanners for customers. In B&M retail shopping, that trumps NFC. In caveman terms: bar code scanner in customer hands is good; NFC in customer hands is stupid. Customers could use their phone camera to scan bar codes, but why?

    NFC is very limited and not secure. NFC is for inventory control in warehouses, on shipping pallets, on shelves. Why do NFC adherents try to force new, unintended, and unsafe applications. Oh, yeah, when all you have is a hammer, all you see is a nail. Then, there is click bait.
    Mar 12 11:21 AM | 19 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: The End Of Moore's Law [View article]
    SA readers should hold onto their capital.

    1) Moore's Law is not a physical law. Instead, Moore's Law is an agreed to timeline shepherded by global organizations like Sematech. Moore's Law is a global organizing principle that is over for ballistic electronic chips.

    2) Moore's Law started to fail in 1998 as Pentium CPUs overheated. Intel came out with the failed Itanium IA64 architecture to counter the slowing of Moore's Law. Today, past timelines for high power deep UV or useable extreme UV are useless. Today, clever tricks are the way forward. Tomorrow, who knows about 450 cm, insulator, trenches, III-V....

    3) SA readers must understand the difference between linear pitch and transistor area in order to make future predictions. Even Russ got that completely wrong by a squared factor. In a nutshell, in order to double transistor areal density, one has to reduce the linear transistor size (and spacing) by square root of 2. (Russ is too rusty on the technology!)

    4) TSMC and IBM have announced they are fabricating 20 nm chips for customers. At the same time, Intel is selling current x86 mobile chips with 32 nm fabrication and mobile support chips at 40 nm and larger sizes. Intel is using TSMC for some Intel branded chips because of Intel's inability to execute.

    5) The Intel 22 nm fab size is practically equivalent to the Samsung 28 HKM fab size (per real Apple and Intel SoCs). IEEE has published several articles eviscerating INTEL CLAIMS as to Intel's current node sizes. Intel PR cannot be trusted as to x86 chip benchmarks or fab node sizes.

    6) In the 1970s, line pitch was the lithographic standard. By the 1980s, gate length was the performance standard and so node size standard. Since 2000, there is NO standard meaning for fab node size (Intel's 22 nm produces the same transistor density as larger Samsung's HKM 28 nm process.). The fact that Intel commonly uses 2 or 3 draped 3D gates per transistor obsoletes ALL the OLD size measures and meanings (see 5). Intel PR plays loose with the facts. In truth, Intel PR is toxic for engineers.

    7) Intel chips are power hogs. This is a significant disadvantage due to the x86 architecture. This might kill the Intel mobile business.

    8) Intel has the wrong business model. Today, Intel is an obsolete business hanging on due to its historical WINTEL duopoly. Look how, over the last ~8 years, Intel has consistently failed with netbooks, ultrabooks, touch screens, screen resolution and video processing, AI, tv, gesture recognition, etc. Initially, HW vendors suffered the losses, but in the last few years Intel has also suffered losses to the ARM ecosystem.

    9) Intel has an insignificant global market share of mobile device SoCs, network radios, video codecs, etc. Intel has a long 12-18 month lead time for CPUs and SoCs. How could Intel heal itself when the ARM ecosystem is ripping it apart??? Intel PR can sure tell a different story.
    Feb 24 11:23 AM | 19 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seeking Alpha Celebrates 2MM Real-Time Alerts Subscribers! [View article]
    Quantity does NOT trump quality, though.

    I am focused on how SA has been evolving...enhancing information. THOSE evolutionary improvements are the innermost virtuous cycles. The summary with bullet points is one recent major improvement. The paragraphs stepping SA readers through the article are getting better. The conclusions are better framed and include most actionable information for retail investors. FUD, pumping, selling have diminished but remain.

    Kudos, SA!
    Jun 10 10:10 AM | 18 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There is no precedent for the current market, writes The Fat Pitch. Consider: 1) The S&P (SPY) has been up 56 of 88 trading sessions this year 2) It's up an uncorrected 24% since the post-election low - the longest streak in over 3 decades 3) The Nasdaq (QQQ) is on pace for a 7th straight up month, an occurrence with a 3-in-100 probability. Long term it's bullish, writes Ukarlewitz, as this sort of strength is rarely the end of a trend. Short term? Stay nimble. [View news story]
    Whoah!!! This is crazy talk!! This is the kind of thinking I observed with all the previous bubbles!

    New normal, the Internet changes everything, real estate will just keep going up, S&L banking is booming, Lehman's needs more leverage, Bernie guarantees 12% per year, Enron's new model is revolutionizing energy distribution and sales.

    Naive SA readers: if it sounds too good, you are being lied to. Hold onto your money. In fact, keep a safe cash position throughout 2013 until the inevitable pullbacks. Do not get completely out. Do nothing rash.

    Wall Street is banking on the churn.
    May 19 11:24 AM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will China Ban Cripple Apple Earnings? [View article]
    I doubt that Apple has sold many iDevices to the Chinese government. Do you really think the Chinese government shops at the App Store? Apple supports a complete ecosystem so each enterprise has to build its own ecosystem including apps.

    Apple's Chinese sales figures are from retail sales. Some suggest that this snub will increase Apple's Chinese sales because people know Apple did not cave to the government demands like Microsoft.
    Aug 7 02:00 PM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Isn't Dead [View article]

    Steve Jobs died on September 5th, 2011 (God bless him), and Apple needed to change to accommodate losing him. Apple has always been a Ninja company quietly and quickly moving to the next big things. Apple changed CPU ISAs a few times, using runtime interpreters. Apple changed OSs a few times. Apple invented many new markets and device categories. Jobs often said that NO technology dominates more than 10 years before being replaced. Still the passing of Steve Jobs was a big challenge over the past two years.

    Has Apple successfully made the transition to a post Steve Jobs world? I think 2013 has proven, Yes!


    In the second half of 2012 and going into 2013, some Apple supply chain vendors tried to out maneuver Apple. A few vendors challenged Apple's control of its supply chain. Apple's C level execs dealt sharply and wisely with trouble makers, making changes. Remember all those rumors spread by a few individuals?

    Both Samsung and Microsoft PR have been spewing FUD about Apple. Their PR themes are dumb and dumber: "Apple tax", "Apple can't innovate", "new Apple products are boring", "teenagers do not like Apple products", "developing world customers will NOT pay for premium devices". At the same time, Samsung and Microsoft are slavishly copying Apple. Samsung devices are illegal Apple knockoffs while adding one or more weird Samsung features like huge screens and NFC. Microsoft is morphing into Apple (e.g., B&M stores, app store, 3rd party developer programs, Surface, etc.). Microsoft changed its whole business to imitate Apple. Microsoft has "Apple envy".

    Does Apple possess viable, significant business moats? Heck yes! Apple defines and dominates its markets, products, and services. The Apple vision points every digital citizen to the future. Apple's products define whole categories and production rate paces whole markets.

    IMO, Apple will dominate in 2014 and beyond. Buy the business! Notice the global Apple investment bank. Ignore the FUD from deep pocketed competitors and shorts. Grow your capital by ignoring noise.
    Dec 26 12:23 PM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Reasons To Pay Attention To Apple Now [View article]
    APPLE IS DOOMED!!!!! Apple cannot innovate! Everyone has surpassed Apple!

    Ten reasons Apple is doomed:
    1) Self proclaimed experts say so.
    2) Executives are not leaving Apple, like at Microsoft.
    3) The C level is not embroiled in internal reorganization, like at Microsoft and Intel.
    4) Apple is not making cheap phones for the poor.
    5) Apple will be making cheap phones for the poor.
    6) Apple does not make bizarre 5-6 inch phones or convertibles running both Android and Windows 8.
    7) Apple does not pay kids to trash competitors like Samsung.
    8) Apple does not play "benchmark games" with uselessly extreme and even harmful scores.
    9) Pathological customers do not want the "best laptops in the world".
    10) All Apple competitors and even lame critics will instantly copy Apple's next releases.

    YES, PEOPLE!!!!! All good news is really, really bad news. Now, I hope all the haters and fanbois had their fill. Let's wait in anticipation for WWDC next week.
    Jun 4 03:56 PM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Lies Ahead For Apple [View article]
    Majoris, you have hit the nail on the head. Many SA article writers do NOT understand the businesses they write about. Rather than do research, these SA writers fixate on a SINGLE number and opine about things these authors do NOT understand.

    Apple produces HW and SW. Apple distributes globally, Apple sells in B&M stores and their online Web site and at 3rd parties. Apple trains users in stores. Apple provides service and support. Apple is deeply involved in education and this is very important. Apple provides a full range of services including iCloud, iTunes, iTunes U, App Store, educational projects, and so on. Apple proactively negotiates globally for content including songs, movies, tv, educational courses, podcasts, and BEST of BREED Apps.

    Apple's ecosystem provides 3rd parties with a world class ecosystem to market and transact sales. 3rd party SW developers are making multiple 10's of billions in SW sales per year. Apple is driving technology industry growth globally, big time! Apple has recently announced their partnership with IBM.

    What is SA's expert opinion? Apple had another boring quarter! How crazy is this expert disinformation?
    Jul 23 10:24 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel And TSMC: The Unwinnable Struggle [View article]
    rko, I agree with your discussion points. You have punctured the whole article. Intel's fabrication process is a tactical and ethereal advantage...not a moat. Intel's tic-toc roadmap is dead, killed by successive failures in DUV, EUV, 450 mm, FinFET, process variability, polishing. Soon enough, books will be written about Intel...tell all books.

    1) Intel's 22 nm equals Samsung's HKM 28 nm process as to transistor density. And, by extension, SA readers should also consider TSMC and GF process nodes. If Intel PR distorts its process nodes, then Intel stock is a very dangerous investment.

    2) Intel SoC plus support chipset (aka BOM) is a battery hog. Better mobile gear cannot use x86 chips because battery life is soooo bad (battery life is why Intel graphics are soooo low resolution and choppy). Advantage to ARM!

    3) Intel PR has lied about Intel x86 performance vis a vis ARM chips. Intel used Intel's software compiler and improperly set the compiler switches. If Intel PR lies about chip performance, then Intel stock is a very dangerous investment.

    4) Intel PR ignores the ~75 percent of a smart mobile device that is NOT CPU. Specifically, Intel PR distorts GPUs, networks, radios, codecs for streaming realtime media. Advantage to Apple, Qualcomm, Nvidia, and Samsung.

    5) For ~8 years, Intel has failed on ALL new Intel investments in netbooks, ultrabooks, AI, tv, gesture recognition, 3D gesture control, new fab buildings, DUV, EUV, 450 mm wafers, and more. Intel begins R&D toooo late and dumps their R&D toooo soon.

    6) Intel faces huge barriers to future scaling. The 14 nm node remains a big question mark...maybe it is production ready but no Intel employees are saying (except PR foggy statements). Some experts say Intel will fail at 10 nm unless Intel finds a different process (in published articles others like IBM are ahead of Intel). Intel drapes several gates over each transistor to compensate for fab problems.

    7) SA readers should NOT invest in companies they cannot trust. Retail investing is very difficult under all conditions. Well over billion dollar annual PR budgets pay for a lot of disinformation, including science fiction stories. I trust my eyes. Intel's C level is Dilbert and newest fabs are mostly empty. I trust my ears. Intel's PR is happy smoke for the Peanut Gallery kids.

    8) It is possible that ~28 nm (22 nm for Intel) will remain the cheapest node going forward. It is possible ~7 nm is the scaling limit. It has been proven that Moore's Law has already stalled, slowing in 1998 initially due to heat generation. CMOS scaling will plateau, around 2022 to 2025. And, Intel will continue to fail right up to that plateau...not withstanding Intel PR claims of success and invincibility to all comers.

    9) Just ignore all the noise coming directly from Intel PR and indirectly from paid bloggers, article writers, industry outlets (paid advertisers), and talking heads on news outlets. Day traders are playing Intel swings.
    Mar 24 10:59 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China Mobile Deal Will Be Big For Apple, But Not That Big [View article]
    kroyals, Michael does not know there are reportedly millions of unlocked iPhones on China Mobile's network already. From article:

    "Until that deal is done, Chinese smartphone users wishing to use an iPhone have had to subscribe to China Unicom (CHU) or China Telecom (CHU). Many have."

    The anticipated, pre-announced deal would permit China Mobile to do direct iPhone sales. Reports estimate in a range of 10-15 million additional iPhone sales as the result of this deal.

    Last week, Michael wrote articles claiming smartphone annual sales would drop significantly (rhymes with PC sales drop) by 2015 and more after that. Today, I dug up a Gartner estimate that smartphone sales will double by 2015. Same old stuff from Michael.
    Dec 10 03:53 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment