William Trent1

The Chip Glut Is Beyond Semi-Serious

One word: Yes.

I still believe things will hit bottom when the orders for new supply start to grow slower than end demand.

The Chip Glut Is Beyond Semi-Serious

It may be weakening now, but it must have been strong at some point for the semis to be adding so much capacity. The problem with that is that orders can be canceled. Somehow the chip industry always believes the orders are for real "this time" even though they have been proved wrong over and over.

Eternal optimists, I guess.

The Chip Glut Is Beyond Semi-Serious

Chips are a global commodity, and the foreign producers are having considerable impact. Some of the data presented above are U.S. specific, while others I follow (such as the SIA Global Sales Report) are global.

Other dynamics, such as inventory levels, are probably something that can be extrapolated. If US chipmakers are building inventory it could mean that foreign manufacturers are taking share, or it could mean that foreign manufacturers are also building inventory. In the short term the latter is usually more significant that the former but it is something to be aware of as the counter-argument.

I would say the weakest data above, with respect to a more global chip industry, is the capacity utilization figure. With more new fabs built overseas than in the U.S., U.S. capacity utilization is less relevant to the total industry than it has been historically. By using the Fed data, I am making an implicit assumption that global fabs are all being utilized at roughly the same rate. Sometimes this will not be the case.

The Chip Glut Is Beyond Semi-Serious

Thanks.

I have been (publicly) bearish for approximately 1 year, and during that time the SOX is down about 5% vs. a 10% gain in the S&P 500, so I wouldn't say the bearish outlook was invalid. Admittedly (which I have also noted) I may have missed the August bottom. The data just haven't reversed enough to warrant a turn toward bullishness on my part.

To be specific, I think the fundamentals are going to get much worse, but the market will look past the bottom in fundamentals and the stocks will recover before the fundamentals do. I am not confident, yet, that we have reached that point but it is possible that we have. Sorry I can't be more helpful than that.

As far as the article you referenced, I share Notable Calls' opinion.