mallarde

138 Comments

    • General Discussion on HOG
      Is Harley Davidson Stock Losing Market Value On Purpose? Oct 08 02:13 PM
    • Bill Ackman Piled Into Wachovia and AIG Shares [view article]
      All it took me was a Google search. I was not bold enough to recover much of my loss on the way down with WB, but I made a quick profit. Oct 08 01:35 PM
    • General Discussion on HOG
      The rest of my short position was taken out. If she cannot hold at $30, my HOG playing days might be over. I am getting nostalgic already. Oct 06 01:40 PM
    • General Discussion on HOG
      Hey, the automakers' numbers sure are interesting. Wonder if HOG will "lose market share on purpose" again? Oct 02 04:24 PM
    • General Discussion on HOG
      I saw that as well. It is very interesting. I think what he said before was is that it would be time to buy the stock at some point in the near future, but just not quite yet.

      Now I think he is saying, in essence, that it is a sell.

      It is funny because his observation that it is a discretionary spending stock is the understatement of the century.       Oct 01 04:06 PM
    • General Discussion on WB
      It seems that we did get the shaft from the Feds. Maybe if WB was an investment bank and its shareholders included big-wig former execs with $100s of millions in stock, we would have been treated better.

      Steel's political capital might not have been as much as the investment banker buddies of Paulson.

      I am glad the bailout failed. It was too late for us to benefit, and the arrogance of Wall Street is stomach-turning.       Sep 30 04:07 PM
    • The Lowdown on Citi / Wachovia [view article]
      Wasn't this forced by federal regulators? If the shareholders reject it, it could mean that our stock is worth zero, correct? WB might end up declaring bankruptcy because it can no longer operate as a bank because regulators will not allow it.

      I bought more shares at $1.90 yesterday thinking that the $1 we got from Citi and the other assets were worth more. Hehe, I just got a 50% return. Not close to offsetting my big losses.       Sep 30 01:38 PM
    • A Better Bailout [view article]
      I do not like this proposal at all. rather than addressing The liquidity issue directly, it attempts to address it indirectly by helping the speculative home buyers. By propping up individual homebuyers, Mr. Arguello believes he would shore up the securities that their mortgages underlie.

      this is questionable. Also, it would take time for this to play itself out. In the mean time the securities would still be illiquid -- there would be no market for them.

      With regard to assisting speculative homebuyers, I have a moral issue with my money -- I should say more of my money since my tax money already subsidized their speculative investments -- assisting these irresponsible, shortsighted people.

      And where does Mr. Arguello come up with the 50% figure? That is not a very high hurdle for a mortgage borrower. Is the taxpayer to pay for 50% of the speculative investors house?

      What is too seldom stated publicly, the vast majority of people that are in trouble with their mortgages are not in trouble because they were laid off. This is why the present situation is different from the Great Depression. Today, people are in trouble because they never were capable of paying off the loans they entered into. They were irresponsible and entering into them, and I do not want to help them now. As a life long renter due to spiraling prices, bailing out speculators now would be very ironic on a personal level.       Sep 26 01:14 PM
    • General Discussion on HOG
      agreed. I think we both have a handle on the demographic that will haunt this stock. the remaining question in my mind is how successful Harley Davidson can be overseas. It will not matter so much if they cannot pull off huge increases in their overseas sales in short order. Otherwise, the share price will still suffer the glacial shift in its key market In the United States. Sep 26 01:02 PM
    • General Discussion on HOG
      Are you in the U.S.? Where do you live?

      people should be concerned. People had a very false sense of how wealth is developed and maintained. The stock market run up in the 1990s and then the housing hysteria distorted every body's viewpoints on how much money they could spend without hitting financial oblivion.

      I think Harley Davidson's target market, in particular, was a victim -- or subscriber -- to these false beliefs as to how one could spend money. Since I am a daily motorcycle rider, I talk to people about generalizations concerning motorcyclists all the time. I tell people that motorcycles attract oftentimes the types of people that should not be riding motorcycles in the first place.

      I draw an analogy to pit bulls in Los Angeles. Pit bulls seem to attract the very personality types that are not responsible enough to own them.

      I think Harley Davidson motorcycles somehow attract the very personality types that are not financially responsible enough to purchase them. In the past, this did not matter because people could tap into their home equity. Now that those days are over, I think Harley Davidson is going to get -- in motorcycle parlance -- T-boned.       Sep 25 04:08 PM
    • General Discussion on HOG
      The storm clouds have been gathering for months. The past few bad quarters were only ominous signs of what would come -- in this quarter and beyond. I do not think any bail out will come soon enough to preempt the release of this quarters results. I think those are due to be released in the middle of October.

      I think a number of forces have coalesced and are going to start impacting the company in a very material way this quarter. Up until now we have only seen their numbers erode. I think things are really going to show themselves this time around.

      Only international sales could possibly save this quarter and the results for the coming years.       Sep 24 05:59 PM
    • Banking on Trust: What Builds Loyalty? [view article]
      I agree that banks have completely neglected certain aspects of the customer experience. I've had very bad experiences with both Bank of America and Wachovia in terms of penalties for very small account deficits.

      Bank of America in particular has really atrocious customer service in some of its branches and phone services.       Sep 24 01:27 PM
    • General Discussion on HOG
      I hope I do not send wishy-washy, but I now think the stock will not retrace back into the mid-40s range before dropping into the 30s. The relief rally on Wall Street is obviously over, and I just do not see any other catalysts to lift the stock up before they release their numbers. Sep 22 01:20 PM
    • General Discussion on HOG
      I saw the NYTimes story. But HOG the stock will not budge. No, sireee, Bob.

      I will look to short some more at around $44-45. I think she is going to test the upper end of the range before correcting as a consequence of fundamentals.

      I have a hard time understanding how the new credit reality in the United States will not slam this stock as a result of declining Harley Davidson sales in the US. Who would loan somebody money to buy a Harley Davidson? If you have to take out a loan to purchase a $20,000 toy, you have no business purchasing a $20,000 toy in the first place.       Sep 19 10:42 PM
    • General Discussion on HOG
      I actually hope I am wrong on this issue because if I am wrong then my short position becomes a much better investment. It is not as though there is monopoly power in the cruiser motorcycle market such that a high market share create some advantage.

      Instead, to me a high market share for Harley Davidson would mean that the company will have a harder time expanding its domestic-derived revenues. To the contrary, it would run a serious risk of dramatic erosion of its domestic sales. This is what we have seen in at least the past quarter and I suspect we will continue to see it.       Sep 18 10:13 PM
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