mallarde's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/65602/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/173139-ten-most-prominent-underperformers-in-corporate-america?source=feed#comment-760594 760594

On Nov 14 10:32 AM bobbybutte wrote:

> as aperson who allocates capital for aliving I dont see BAC as being
> an underachiever
>
> hedge fund guru john paulson has taken a huge stake and no offense
> but he is much smarter than anyone here who posts]]> Sat, 14 Nov 2009 20:08:01 -0500

On Nov 14 10:32 AM bobbybutte wrote:

> as aperson who allocates capital for aliving I dont see BAC as being
> an underachiever
>
> hedge fund guru john paulson has taken a huge stake and no offense
> but he is much smarter than anyone here who posts]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/167226-harley-davidson-opportunity-exists-to-the-downside?source=feed#comment-738505 738505
This message has real appeal to Wall Street types who can only see one quarter ahead. We know that H-D already has been trying to leverage the brand. In fact, they have been raping the brand, to put it bluntly. They have been savaging the brand to make money now, but the brand will suffer in the longer term from overexposure on belt buckles, jewelry pendents, etc.

So to me their message is only a sign of desperation. To Wall Street's ears, it means higher profits off of less capital investment -- the investment in the brands with less margin. Of course, we know that Wall Street likes progressively higher earnings each quarter even if it means the train goes off the rails. From Wall Street's perspective, full-size Harleys are like crack. Buells are like run-of-the-mill powder cocaine. Why waste your time on powder coke when you can put all your investment in the more powerful crack? "Let's just smoke crack!" management tells us.

H-D could only more fully "lever" the H-D brand if they opened a chain of strip clubs or starting licensing the logo to bratwurst makers. I mean, what sort of merchandising is left that they are not already participating in?


On Oct 23 05:00 PM NSN wrote:

> David-
> Great work on putting together lot of information.
>
> What I was trying to figure out was logic behind the stock price
> jump with high volume 2-days in row after the earnings were out.
> It seems so illogical for the earnings they posted. I have been following
> this stock for quite some time and strongly believed someone is cooking
> filthy platter on this one. I would short this only if I have the
> stomach to hold on to it for at least 2/3 quarters so real colors
> show up.
>
> Who knows this analysts/companies who they are hangin-out with and
> what they are cooking.
> (I smelled little Bacon today) After what we heard about fraud on
> insiders trading, anything is possible. I think this stock is so
> much similar to Enron kind they may take it to reall high before
> fall.
>
> Beware and good luck
>
> NSN]]> Sat, 31 Oct 2009 13:22:55 -0400
This message has real appeal to Wall Street types who can only see one quarter ahead. We know that H-D already has been trying to leverage the brand. In fact, they have been raping the brand, to put it bluntly. They have been savaging the brand to make money now, but the brand will suffer in the longer term from overexposure on belt buckles, jewelry pendents, etc.

So to me their message is only a sign of desperation. To Wall Street's ears, it means higher profits off of less capital investment -- the investment in the brands with less margin. Of course, we know that Wall Street likes progressively higher earnings each quarter even if it means the train goes off the rails. From Wall Street's perspective, full-size Harleys are like crack. Buells are like run-of-the-mill powder cocaine. Why waste your time on powder coke when you can put all your investment in the more powerful crack? "Let's just smoke crack!" management tells us.

H-D could only more fully "lever" the H-D brand if they opened a chain of strip clubs or starting licensing the logo to bratwurst makers. I mean, what sort of merchandising is left that they are not already participating in?


On Oct 23 05:00 PM NSN wrote:

> David-
> Great work on putting together lot of information.
>
> What I was trying to figure out was logic behind the stock price
> jump with high volume 2-days in row after the earnings were out.
> It seems so illogical for the earnings they posted. I have been following
> this stock for quite some time and strongly believed someone is cooking
> filthy platter on this one. I would short this only if I have the
> stomach to hold on to it for at least 2/3 quarters so real colors
> show up.
>
> Who knows this analysts/companies who they are hangin-out with and
> what they are cooking.
> (I smelled little Bacon today) After what we heard about fraud on
> insiders trading, anything is possible. I think this stock is so
> much similar to Enron kind they may take it to reall high before
> fall.
>
> Beware and good luck
>
> NSN]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/168342-the-future-of-u-s-consumer-spending-it-s-a-generational-thing?source=feed#comment-726109 726109
True, Americans might consume more in aggregate, but so what? It's an economic sinkhole. We can always export like the Chinese, correct?


On Oct 22 06:11 PM User 353732 wrote:

> The Japanese had( still have) bad government, bad demographics(worse
> now) and good global competitiveness during the lost decade......which,inci...
> is now becoming the lost 2 decades.
>
> The US has bad government, good demographics and bad global competitiveness.
>
>
> Bad Government trumps everything else. Having an expanding labor
> force with relatively poor skills amongst the bottom third, high
> unemployment and underemployment , high debts and no credit does
> not lead to sustainable good quality growth.
>
> Demographics matter, of course, and matter hugely in the long term,
> but National policy, priorities and will matter even more in the
> near and medium terms.
>
> In America the tremendous liability of Bad Government overwhelms
> the great assets of good demographics, astonishingly good endowment
> of natural and technological resources and the entrepreneurial drive
> of small and new businesses]]> Thu, 22 Oct 2009 19:39:52 -0400
True, Americans might consume more in aggregate, but so what? It's an economic sinkhole. We can always export like the Chinese, correct?


On Oct 22 06:11 PM User 353732 wrote:

> The Japanese had( still have) bad government, bad demographics(worse
> now) and good global competitiveness during the lost decade......which,inci...
> is now becoming the lost 2 decades.
>
> The US has bad government, good demographics and bad global competitiveness.
>
>
> Bad Government trumps everything else. Having an expanding labor
> force with relatively poor skills amongst the bottom third, high
> unemployment and underemployment , high debts and no credit does
> not lead to sustainable good quality growth.
>
> Demographics matter, of course, and matter hugely in the long term,
> but National policy, priorities and will matter even more in the
> near and medium terms.
>
> In America the tremendous liability of Bad Government overwhelms
> the great assets of good demographics, astonishingly good endowment
> of natural and technological resources and the entrepreneurial drive
> of small and new businesses]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/167226-harley-davidson-opportunity-exists-to-the-downside?source=feed#comment-724659 724659
Management's statement about "focusing on the H-D brand" really cracks me up. Who are they kidding? (I guess they fooled some people.)]]> Thu, 22 Oct 2009 00:44:41 -0400
Management's statement about "focusing on the H-D brand" really cracks me up. Who are they kidding? (I guess they fooled some people.)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/166998-harley-davidson-executives-investors-wear-generational-blinders?source=feed#comment-723084 723084 Wed, 21 Oct 2009 05:01:10 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/167226-harley-davidson-opportunity-exists-to-the-downside?source=feed#comment-722555 722555
So the amount they kept on their books involuntarily is $5.1B?

I thought exactly the same thing with respect to revenue. Before they can increase revenue, don't they have to stop the cratering? Shouldn't the question be, when will we stop seeing massive, double-digit declines in sales?

Before the latest equities love-in, revenue declines of these magnitudes would have people screaming for the exits. Instead, management offers empty bluster about "expanding" the brand -- as though H-D benefits from massive exposure like Mickey Mouse.

This is like watching a car wreck in slow motion. I could see H-D taking big gambles to expand overseas, keeping more loans on their own books to prevent sales from dropping even worse than they will in any case and then being forced to ask for a bailout like the Big 3.]]> Tue, 20 Oct 2009 16:19:11 -0400
So the amount they kept on their books involuntarily is $5.1B?

I thought exactly the same thing with respect to revenue. Before they can increase revenue, don't they have to stop the cratering? Shouldn't the question be, when will we stop seeing massive, double-digit declines in sales?

Before the latest equities love-in, revenue declines of these magnitudes would have people screaming for the exits. Instead, management offers empty bluster about "expanding" the brand -- as though H-D benefits from massive exposure like Mickey Mouse.

This is like watching a car wreck in slow motion. I could see H-D taking big gambles to expand overseas, keeping more loans on their own books to prevent sales from dropping even worse than they will in any case and then being forced to ask for a bailout like the Big 3.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/167226-harley-davidson-opportunity-exists-to-the-downside?source=feed#comment-721142 721142
If HOG goes up more for no reason other than bluster, I will consider moving more assets into my brokerage account and taking on more risk through a larger short position.

The only thing that concerned me was international sales. Since international sales declined by a healthy amount notwithstanding their professed emphasis on expanding outside the U.S., I am less concerned about this.

Also, after listening to the conference call, I am more convinced that management is only competent to "flog the brand" more. The brand already is overexposed. The strategy that seem to want to adopt is appropriate strategy for harvesting as much as possible out of a dying company -- not growing an existing one.

I wish I knew more about how these banks and institutions operate so I could decide whether they are all ignorant or colluding with each other.]]> Mon, 19 Oct 2009 17:59:23 -0400
If HOG goes up more for no reason other than bluster, I will consider moving more assets into my brokerage account and taking on more risk through a larger short position.

The only thing that concerned me was international sales. Since international sales declined by a healthy amount notwithstanding their professed emphasis on expanding outside the U.S., I am less concerned about this.

Also, after listening to the conference call, I am more convinced that management is only competent to "flog the brand" more. The brand already is overexposed. The strategy that seem to want to adopt is appropriate strategy for harvesting as much as possible out of a dying company -- not growing an existing one.

I wish I knew more about how these banks and institutions operate so I could decide whether they are all ignorant or colluding with each other.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/166998-harley-davidson-executives-investors-wear-generational-blinders?source=feed#comment-717724 717724
Are we allowed to talk about groups of people being smaller and less able to ride large motorcycles? Someone once picked a fight with me when I posted something similar.]]> Fri, 16 Oct 2009 12:49:07 -0400
Are we allowed to talk about groups of people being smaller and less able to ride large motorcycles? Someone once picked a fight with me when I posted something similar.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/166778-harley-davidson-q3-earnings-miss-guidance-narrowed?source=feed#comment-717213 717213
Really, the notion of a strategy of expanding H-D branded products seems almost like a joke. How much more overexposed could the brand be? C'mon. This "flogging the brand" is destructive in the long term. More H-D belt buckles? More H-D studded pants? Could they be any less creative?

It sounds to me like all the bluster about a "plan" in the call is just these guys reading off of a script and repeating tag lines they think the analysts want to hear.

Also, the mantra of sales in Asia seems like a Hail Mary. International sales were down this quarter by a healthy amount. And this is where they plan to shift their lower sales in the U.S.? Does anyone really know whether people will ride these big bikes in Asia? They are freakish-looking here. In Asia? Impractical beyond description.

And the self-serving comments about the youth market seemed empty to me. H-D does not resonate with the youth market around California. I suspect it does not in most places.

I am underwater on my short position -- today's move was remarkable -- but will be thinking of adding at these levels.]]> Fri, 16 Oct 2009 02:27:02 -0400
Really, the notion of a strategy of expanding H-D branded products seems almost like a joke. How much more overexposed could the brand be? C'mon. This "flogging the brand" is destructive in the long term. More H-D belt buckles? More H-D studded pants? Could they be any less creative?

It sounds to me like all the bluster about a "plan" in the call is just these guys reading off of a script and repeating tag lines they think the analysts want to hear.

Also, the mantra of sales in Asia seems like a Hail Mary. International sales were down this quarter by a healthy amount. And this is where they plan to shift their lower sales in the U.S.? Does anyone really know whether people will ride these big bikes in Asia? They are freakish-looking here. In Asia? Impractical beyond description.

And the self-serving comments about the youth market seemed empty to me. H-D does not resonate with the youth market around California. I suspect it does not in most places.

I am underwater on my short position -- today's move was remarkable -- but will be thinking of adding at these levels.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/166778-harley-davidson-q3-earnings-miss-guidance-narrowed?source=feed#comment-716832 716832
Presuming that the move up today was not 100-percent manipulation, the market must have been responding positively to HOG's plan to drop Buell and MG. The market is dead wrong. HOG is throwing in the towel [complete with H-D logos on it] on ever breaking out of the V-twin, air-cooled corner it has worked itself into.

Think about how BMW fought to break out of its "boxer" engine to avoid falling behind technology. It's boxer engine never died, but now BMW has a broad portfolio of bikes with at least 3 completely different configurations.

HOG's retrenchment dooms it to its little market niche whose audience is getting old and will not continue throwing money at an absurd trophy disguised as a vehicle. I see BMW thrashing to capture a younger market. In contrast, HOG is just "cruising" to its inevitable demise.

I guess Wall Street still can only think one quarter ahead.]]> Thu, 15 Oct 2009 18:19:30 -0400
Presuming that the move up today was not 100-percent manipulation, the market must have been responding positively to HOG's plan to drop Buell and MG. The market is dead wrong. HOG is throwing in the towel [complete with H-D logos on it] on ever breaking out of the V-twin, air-cooled corner it has worked itself into.

Think about how BMW fought to break out of its "boxer" engine to avoid falling behind technology. It's boxer engine never died, but now BMW has a broad portfolio of bikes with at least 3 completely different configurations.

HOG's retrenchment dooms it to its little market niche whose audience is getting old and will not continue throwing money at an absurd trophy disguised as a vehicle. I see BMW thrashing to capture a younger market. In contrast, HOG is just "cruising" to its inevitable demise.

I guess Wall Street still can only think one quarter ahead.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/164452-recession-is-over-depression-has-just-begun?source=feed#comment-705806 705806 Tue, 06 Oct 2009 17:02:11 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/160607-hog-is-about-to-catch-swine-flu?source=feed#comment-690131 690131 Thu, 24 Sep 2009 20:03:15 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/98115-john-lounsbury/28103-the-hidden-depression-of-the-2000s?source=feed#comment-683686 683686
What seems to be happening is that Obama is flooding the market with credit and government spending to delay the pain -- like giving morphine injections to a badly wounded soldier. At some point, you have to treat the wound.

I see no policymakers or "experts" talking about the above. Until this starts to happen, I do not see how we will avoid continuing down the same path.]]> Sat, 19 Sep 2009 19:39:06 -0400
What seems to be happening is that Obama is flooding the market with credit and government spending to delay the pain -- like giving morphine injections to a badly wounded soldier. At some point, you have to treat the wound.

I see no policymakers or "experts" talking about the above. Until this starts to happen, I do not see how we will avoid continuing down the same path.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/160607-hog-is-about-to-catch-swine-flu?source=feed#comment-682075 682075 Fri, 18 Sep 2009 05:26:40 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/161845-capacity-s-comeback-strongly-indicates-recession-s-end?source=feed#comment-681992 681992
Seeing the return of speculation in the financial markets should not impress us. Americans must change the way they live. They have no bubbles left to cash in on and working for a living got a lot harder. (Maybe we will have a "recovery" limited to the wealthy class.)]]> Fri, 18 Sep 2009 01:11:03 -0400
Seeing the return of speculation in the financial markets should not impress us. Americans must change the way they live. They have no bubbles left to cash in on and working for a living got a lot harder. (Maybe we will have a "recovery" limited to the wealthy class.)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/160164-coach-is-fundamentally-solid?source=feed#comment-673763 673763 Sat, 12 Sep 2009 15:18:09 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/160607-hog-is-about-to-catch-swine-flu?source=feed#comment-672533 672533
Still, unlike Snitzer I do not think that things will return to "normal" ever again. And when I say "normal" I mean the climate that HOG operated in the last 10 or 15 years. I do not think that HOG's core fan base will be able to pay over $20K for a recreational vehicle used only on the weekends. I do not think that anyone will want to finance such purchases by HOG's core fan base -- including HOG.

Also, I think that HOG's margins were unsustainable. The motorcycles became garish fashion accessories for those that are not wealthy and were stretching to make the purchase. Like a Hollywood actor in his final throes, HOGs motorcycles have become a caricatures of themselves.

I do not think that the government will allow this icon to fail. Or some private equity fund will swoop in and buy a stake before it fails completely.

But I do not think that things will ever return to the so-called "normal" of the late-90s through 2007 for this company.]]> Fri, 11 Sep 2009 14:01:43 -0400
Still, unlike Snitzer I do not think that things will return to "normal" ever again. And when I say "normal" I mean the climate that HOG operated in the last 10 or 15 years. I do not think that HOG's core fan base will be able to pay over $20K for a recreational vehicle used only on the weekends. I do not think that anyone will want to finance such purchases by HOG's core fan base -- including HOG.

Also, I think that HOG's margins were unsustainable. The motorcycles became garish fashion accessories for those that are not wealthy and were stretching to make the purchase. Like a Hollywood actor in his final throes, HOGs motorcycles have become a caricatures of themselves.

I do not think that the government will allow this icon to fail. Or some private equity fund will swoop in and buy a stake before it fails completely.

But I do not think that things will ever return to the so-called "normal" of the late-90s through 2007 for this company.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/153168-eye-on-unemployment-should-the-u-s-stop-immigration?source=feed#comment-669852 669852 Thu, 10 Sep 2009 04:26:04 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/160607-hog-is-about-to-catch-swine-flu?source=feed#comment-669707 669707 Wed, 09 Sep 2009 20:43:35 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/160364-recipients-of-fha-loans-starting-to-default-say-hello-to-the-next-crisis?source=feed#comment-666806 666806

On Sep 08 08:24 AM Jimmy K wrote:

> where exactly do you watch "drivers on coke"? I agree with the rest
> of your article; but I just don't get that statement...]]> Tue, 08 Sep 2009 13:46:22 -0400

On Sep 08 08:24 AM Jimmy K wrote:

> where exactly do you watch "drivers on coke"? I agree with the rest
> of your article; but I just don't get that statement...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/150398-harley-davidson-in-the-mire-and-likely-to-stay-there?source=feed#comment-657454 657454
I suspect that they are really hoping that there are 100,00+ millionaires in India that would like a very unique and American status symbol. A replacement for their core marker? C'mon, that is ridiculous. HOG can't survive by selling Americana in Asia.]]> Tue, 01 Sep 2009 20:05:27 -0400
I suspect that they are really hoping that there are 100,00+ millionaires in India that would like a very unique and American status symbol. A replacement for their core marker? C'mon, that is ridiculous. HOG can't survive by selling Americana in Asia.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/150398-harley-davidson-in-the-mire-and-likely-to-stay-there?source=feed#comment-655632 655632
And the statement about web-conscious and Earth-friendly youth resonated with me. Rather than thinking they look tough and cool on a HOG, youth would think they are defeating the whole "green" appeal of motorcycles by riding an overweight and inefficient pig of a bike. How impractical. Worse mileage than green cars? Why risk life and limb? To look good? To look good to whom? Your 60-year-old orthodontist?

This company still has not figured out a way out of the corner it finds itself in. It's whole cache is in the past -- clinging to an obsolete engine. It now must face the music or figure a way out.

What appeals to me as a short-sider if that the financial world seems to know so little about the many market segments that make up the motorcycle world. Most Americans are deluded and think that everyone wants a HOG. Not so at all.

Well-known brands die all the time with passing generations. When is the last time anyone put Brylcreem in their hair?]]> Mon, 31 Aug 2009 22:00:48 -0400
And the statement about web-conscious and Earth-friendly youth resonated with me. Rather than thinking they look tough and cool on a HOG, youth would think they are defeating the whole "green" appeal of motorcycles by riding an overweight and inefficient pig of a bike. How impractical. Worse mileage than green cars? Why risk life and limb? To look good? To look good to whom? Your 60-year-old orthodontist?

This company still has not figured out a way out of the corner it finds itself in. It's whole cache is in the past -- clinging to an obsolete engine. It now must face the music or figure a way out.

What appeals to me as a short-sider if that the financial world seems to know so little about the many market segments that make up the motorcycle world. Most Americans are deluded and think that everyone wants a HOG. Not so at all.

Well-known brands die all the time with passing generations. When is the last time anyone put Brylcreem in their hair?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/158464-new-home-sales-is-soar-the-right-word?source=feed#comment-647970 647970 Wed, 26 Aug 2009 17:44:55 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/158263-one-good-thing-about-estimated-current-housing-values-reality?source=feed#comment-646703 646703
But I agree that housing has a long way to go. I mean, in West L.A. in the nicer parts condos are still more than double, DOUBLE prices a mere nine years ago. It is insane. It feels like a stomach drop at the top of a roller coaster climb. You know the plunge has to come... any moment...]]> Wed, 26 Aug 2009 03:28:44 -0400
But I agree that housing has a long way to go. I mean, in West L.A. in the nicer parts condos are still more than double, DOUBLE prices a mere nine years ago. It is insane. It feels like a stomach drop at the top of a roller coaster climb. You know the plunge has to come... any moment...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/157598-home-sales-appear-to-be-on-the-mend?source=feed#comment-641407 641407 Sun, 23 Aug 2009 01:18:09 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/156786-how-did-vermont-avoid-the-mortgage-meltdown?source=feed#comment-637463 637463
Makes you wonder when we can be like a real country. Is Australia allowed to keep out the billions of Asians that want to move there because the only "real" Australians are the thousands of Aboriginals that suffered invasion 150 years ago?

Floridaboy, you should visit L.A. County if you would like to see the destruction your attitude has wrought. Maybe the melting pot of South Florida is great, but So.Cal. has been destroyed. People that grew up here are heartbroken over the transformation.

As to my statement, how about this from the liberal Washington Post early on in the mortgage meltdown:

“Homeownership rates among immigrants surged in the first half of the decade, making their prosperity an economic success story. Now it is becoming apparent that many people managed to buy homes in an inflated real estate market by turning to unusual new mortgages only now receiving scrutiny from regulators and legislators. Many of these loans start with attractive low ‘teaser’ rates but feature payments that can increase suddenly.

“Unfamiliar with the U.S. mortgage market, unable to speak or read English well and vulnerable to the blandishments of real estate professionals who told them property values always rise, many immigrants are struggling to deal with high mortgage payments as their homes sag in value, making it harder to escape the loans by selling.” [Wave sinking immigrants first By Kirstin Downey, The Washington Post, March 30, 2007]

How about this from the Wall Street Journal?

"The Congressional Hispanic Caucus created Hogar in 2003 to work with industry and community groups to increase mortgage lending to Latinos. At that time, the national Latino homeownership rate was 47%, compared with 68% for the overall population. Hogar called the figure 'alarming,' and said a concerted effort was required to ensure that 'by the end of the decade Latinos will share equally in the American Dream of homeownership.'

Hogar's backers included many companies that ran into trouble in mortgage markets: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, both now under federal control; Countrywide Financial Corp., sold last year to Bank of America Corp.; Washington Mutual Inc., taken over by the government and sold to J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.; and New Century Financial Corp. and Ameriquest Mortgage Corp., both now defunct.

Hogar's ties to the subprime industry were substantial." [January 5, 2009 "Housing Push for Hispanics Spawns Wave of Foreclosures"]

And do you consider New Yorkers to be "Yankees"? I don't.

On Aug 19 05:45 AM FloridaBoy2 wrote:

> "Start with Strategic Foreclosures ("strategics"): people walking
> away from their home because they don't feel like paying for it anymore
> even know they can. This is a phenomenon which will become widespread
> and essentially mainstream in the coming months and years."
>
> Why not walk away? They put little down and have no equity. This
> would not have happened if the original lender had to service the
> loan for the full term.
>
>
> "In fact, in places like California immigrants -- even many illegals
> -- make up a very high proportion of the foreclosed homeowners. It
> is absurd to presume that a Vermont Yankee will behave anything like
> a Mexican drywaller."
>
> Brilliant statement. I am in Florida and many of the properties that
> are now foreclosures were bought by Yankee speculators. Unless you
> are an American Indian there is an immigrant in your woodpile.]]> Thu, 20 Aug 2009 00:22:57 -0400
Makes you wonder when we can be like a real country. Is Australia allowed to keep out the billions of Asians that want to move there because the only "real" Australians are the thousands of Aboriginals that suffered invasion 150 years ago?

Floridaboy, you should visit L.A. County if you would like to see the destruction your attitude has wrought. Maybe the melting pot of South Florida is great, but So.Cal. has been destroyed. People that grew up here are heartbroken over the transformation.

As to my statement, how about this from the liberal Washington Post early on in the mortgage meltdown:

“Homeownership rates among immigrants surged in the first half of the decade, making their prosperity an economic success story. Now it is becoming apparent that many people managed to buy homes in an inflated real estate market by turning to unusual new mortgages only now receiving scrutiny from regulators and legislators. Many of these loans start with attractive low ‘teaser’ rates but feature payments that can increase suddenly.

“Unfamiliar with the U.S. mortgage market, unable to speak or read English well and vulnerable to the blandishments of real estate professionals who told them property values always rise, many immigrants are struggling to deal with high mortgage payments as their homes sag in value, making it harder to escape the loans by selling.” [Wave sinking immigrants first By Kirstin Downey, The Washington Post, March 30, 2007]

How about this from the Wall Street Journal?

"The Congressional Hispanic Caucus created Hogar in 2003 to work with industry and community groups to increase mortgage lending to Latinos. At that time, the national Latino homeownership rate was 47%, compared with 68% for the overall population. Hogar called the figure 'alarming,' and said a concerted effort was required to ensure that 'by the end of the decade Latinos will share equally in the American Dream of homeownership.'

Hogar's backers included many companies that ran into trouble in mortgage markets: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, both now under federal control; Countrywide Financial Corp., sold last year to Bank of America Corp.; Washington Mutual Inc., taken over by the government and sold to J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.; and New Century Financial Corp. and Ameriquest Mortgage Corp., both now defunct.

Hogar's ties to the subprime industry were substantial." [January 5, 2009 "Housing Push for Hispanics Spawns Wave of Foreclosures"]

And do you consider New Yorkers to be "Yankees"? I don't.

On Aug 19 05:45 AM FloridaBoy2 wrote:

> "Start with Strategic Foreclosures ("strategics"): people walking
> away from their home because they don't feel like paying for it anymore
> even know they can. This is a phenomenon which will become widespread
> and essentially mainstream in the coming months and years."
>
> Why not walk away? They put little down and have no equity. This
> would not have happened if the original lender had to service the
> loan for the full term.
>
>
> "In fact, in places like California immigrants -- even many illegals
> -- make up a very high proportion of the foreclosed homeowners. It
> is absurd to presume that a Vermont Yankee will behave anything like
> a Mexican drywaller."
>
> Brilliant statement. I am in Florida and many of the properties that
> are now foreclosures were bought by Yankee speculators. Unless you
> are an American Indian there is an immigrant in your woodpile.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/156984-the-case-for-shorting-bank-of-america?source=feed#comment-637033 637033
If the banks return to their traditional role as lenders and deposit-holders, their earnings will not have the growth that gets lofty valuations.

I am short WFC (very small position), and admit I know less about this sector than about everyone that posted above. So please have at it.]]> Wed, 19 Aug 2009 15:43:17 -0400
If the banks return to their traditional role as lenders and deposit-holders, their earnings will not have the growth that gets lofty valuations.

I am short WFC (very small position), and admit I know less about this sector than about everyone that posted above. So please have at it.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/151994-coach-profit-margins-fall-but-still-relatively-high?source=feed#comment-635834 635834 Tue, 18 Aug 2009 22:05:16 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/156786-how-did-vermont-avoid-the-mortgage-meltdown?source=feed#comment-635093 635093
In fact, in places like California immigrants -- even many illegals -- make up a very high proportion of the foreclosed homeowners. It is absurd to presume that a Vermont Yankee will behave anything like a Mexican drywaller.]]> Tue, 18 Aug 2009 13:23:55 -0400
In fact, in places like California immigrants -- even many illegals -- make up a very high proportion of the foreclosed homeowners. It is absurd to presume that a Vermont Yankee will behave anything like a Mexican drywaller.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/155992-economic-collapse-is-accelerating?source=feed#comment-631256 631256
I drove across L.A. today to pick up a piece of furniture. There are miles and miles of neighborhoods lifted out of Mexico and placed in California. Our government has permitted the world's poor to compete head-to-head with our native workers -- even on our own soil. This will be disastrous until people can set aside their politically correct thought or outmoded economics and offer some protection to the U.S. labor market.]]> Sat, 15 Aug 2009 19:13:25 -0400
I drove across L.A. today to pick up a piece of furniture. There are miles and miles of neighborhoods lifted out of Mexico and placed in California. Our government has permitted the world's poor to compete head-to-head with our native workers -- even on our own soil. This will be disastrous until people can set aside their politically correct thought or outmoded economics and offer some protection to the U.S. labor market.]]>