mallarde

HOG Is About to Catch Swine Flu

Anyone who ripped on David want to reevaluate? Anyone else hear of many people getting sick? I have a feeling that getting the flu does discourage such purchases as an overweight, overpriced weekend chrome carnival toy.

The Hidden Depression of the 2000s

At some point, the U.S. simply must come to terms with what ills its labor market. In particular, the U.S. cannot allow unlimited outsourcing or cheap imports from Asia and elsewhere. Also, the U.S. cannot continue allowing millions of "workers" -- legal or otherwise -- into the country to boost the labor supply and depress wages. Americans must have jobs that can pay them living wages before the economy can be healthy again.

What seems to be happening is that Obama is flooding the market with credit and government spending to delay the pain -- like giving morphine injections to a badly wounded soldier. At some point, you have to treat the wound.

I see no policymakers or "experts" talking about the above. Until this starts to happen, I do not see how we will avoid continuing down the same path.

HOG Is About to Catch Swine Flu

OK, now HOG is going to catch swine flu. Time to give back some of the frothy gain based on the notion of Indians saving HOG by buying ridiculous cruiser bikes. Are they going to start snapping up our retro muscle cars also? Dodge Charger? Corvettes?

Capacity's Comeback Strongly Indicates Recession's End

Everyone has said, and I'll try to put it slightly differently. A "recovery" must be more than the market going up and people on CNBC acting giddy. Our economy has structural problems. We have allowed jobs to flow out of the country and millions upon millions of poor -- and not so poor -- workers into our borders to compete for the jobs that remain.

Seeing the return of speculation in the financial markets should not impress us. Americans must change the way they live. They have no bubbles left to cash in on and working for a living got a lot harder. (Maybe we will have a "recovery" limited to the wealthy class.)

Coach Is Fundamentally Solid

A luxury brand and retailer with flat revenue and a PE of 15? I am short COH.

HOG Is About to Catch Swine Flu

I do not think that HOG's brand is close to collapse. I also think that the US gov. could go to bat for HOG even while it gives the auto industry a difficult time. The reason is that I think there is a unique sentimentality towards HOG that outstrips even GM and Ford.

Still, unlike Snitzer I do not think that things will return to "normal" ever again. And when I say "normal" I mean the climate that HOG operated in the last 10 or 15 years. I do not think that HOG's core fan base will be able to pay over $20K for a recreational vehicle used only on the weekends. I do not think that anyone will want to finance such purchases by HOG's core fan base -- including HOG.

Also, I think that HOG's margins were unsustainable. The motorcycles became garish fashion accessories for those that are not wealthy and were stretching to make the purchase. Like a Hollywood actor in his final throes, HOGs motorcycles have become a caricatures of themselves.

I do not think that the government will allow this icon to fail. Or some private equity fund will swoop in and buy a stake before it fails completely.

But I do not think that things will ever return to the so-called "normal" of the late-90s through 2007 for this company.

Eye on Unemployment: Should the U.S. Stop Immigration?

Americans stupid are. Americans fat and watch televisions. Americans should have no country should give to me. Me work harder than lazy Americans.

HOG Is About to Catch Swine Flu

Must admit that this never occurred to me as a HOG short position holder. It sounds very plausible although like something that might appear in "Freakonomics" -- a strange cause-and-effect relationship.

Recipients of FHA Loans Starting to Default: Say Hello to the Next Crisis

Try traveling on the 134 Freeway in the San Fernando Valley. You will see some.


On Sep 08 08:24 AM Jimmy K wrote:

> where exactly do you watch "drivers on coke"? I agree with the rest
> of your article; but I just don't get that statement...

Harley-Davidson in the Mire and Likely to Stay There

It could allow them to smooth things out for a few quarters, but how long can a company channel-stuff? That would be a very short term fix.

I suspect that they are really hoping that there are 100,00+ millionaires in India that would like a very unique and American status symbol. A replacement for their core marker? C'mon, that is ridiculous. HOG can't survive by selling Americana in Asia.

Harley-Davidson in the Mire and Likely to Stay There

As usual, FUJIMO speaks the truth. The run-up does coincide with India news. And I agree with David White. This is really silliness. The Indian market cannot replace the millions of aging Boomers. What, a few thousand sales a year? Ten thousand sales? And of Sportsters? What else makes any sense in India?

And the statement about web-conscious and Earth-friendly youth resonated with me. Rather than thinking they look tough and cool on a HOG, youth would think they are defeating the whole "green" appeal of motorcycles by riding an overweight and inefficient pig of a bike. How impractical. Worse mileage than green cars? Why risk life and limb? To look good? To look good to whom? Your 60-year-old orthodontist?

This company still has not figured out a way out of the corner it finds itself in. It's whole cache is in the past -- clinging to an obsolete engine. It now must face the music or figure a way out.

What appeals to me as a short-sider if that the financial world seems to know so little about the many market segments that make up the motorcycle world. Most Americans are deluded and think that everyone wants a HOG. Not so at all.

Well-known brands die all the time with passing generations. When is the last time anyone put Brylcreem in their hair?

New Home Sales: Is 'Soar' the Right Word?

What is "homes on the market"? Lowest in 16 years? What is this metric if not "supply"?

One Good Thing About Estimated Current Housing Values: Reality

Good comment, M. Clark. A couple caveats, though. In the West, it is now much more crowded, and there is more competition for housing. Thus, we might not (sadly, IMO) return completely to the norm.

But I agree that housing has a long way to go. I mean, in West L.A. in the nicer parts condos are still more than double, DOUBLE prices a mere nine years ago. It is insane. It feels like a stomach drop at the top of a roller coaster climb. You know the plunge has to come... any moment...

Home Sales Appear to Be on the Mend

The author might not have control over the headline. I believe another author distanced himself from a headline in the comments section. So it might not be fair to critique Mr. Avent based on the spin an editor might have given the article in the headline.

How Did Vermont Avoid the Mortgage Meltdown?

Floridaboy, you get a gold star for your display of tolerance. I do sometimes think impure thoughts. After all, illegal aliens are every bit as American as I am. Heck, people here on tourist visas are every bit as American as I am. And once their tourist visas expire and they work illegally, they are STILL as American as I am. (I wish it was like this in New Zealand.)

Makes you wonder when we can be like a real country. Is Australia allowed to keep out the billions of Asians that want to move there because the only "real" Australians are the thousands of Aboriginals that suffered invasion 150 years ago?

Floridaboy, you should visit L.A. County if you would like to see the destruction your attitude has wrought. Maybe the melting pot of South Florida is great, but So.Cal. has been destroyed. People that grew up here are heartbroken over the transformation.

As to my statement, how about this from the liberal Washington Post early on in the mortgage meltdown:

“Homeownership rates among immigrants surged in the first half of the decade, making their prosperity an economic success story. Now it is becoming apparent that many people managed to buy homes in an inflated real estate market by turning to unusual new mortgages only now receiving scrutiny from regulators and legislators. Many of these loans start with attractive low ‘teaser’ rates but feature payments that can increase suddenly.

“Unfamiliar with the U.S. mortgage market, unable to speak or read English well and vulnerable to the blandishments of real estate professionals who told them property values always rise, many immigrants are struggling to deal with high mortgage payments as their homes sag in value, making it harder to escape the loans by selling.” [Wave sinking immigrants first By Kirstin Downey, The Washington Post, March 30, 2007]

How about this from the Wall Street Journal?

"The Congressional Hispanic Caucus created Hogar in 2003 to work with industry and community groups to increase mortgage lending to Latinos. At that time, the national Latino homeownership rate was 47%, compared with 68% for the overall population. Hogar called the figure 'alarming,' and said a concerted effort was required to ensure that 'by the end of the decade Latinos will share equally in the American Dream of homeownership.'

Hogar's backers included many companies that ran into trouble in mortgage markets: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, both now under federal control; Countrywide Financial Corp., sold last year to Bank of America Corp.; Washington Mutual Inc., taken over by the government and sold to J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.; and New Century Financial Corp. and Ameriquest Mortgage Corp., both now defunct.

Hogar's ties to the subprime industry were substantial." [January 5, 2009 "Housing Push for Hispanics Spawns Wave of Foreclosures"]

And do you consider New Yorkers to be "Yankees"? I don't.

On Aug 19 05:45 AM FloridaBoy2 wrote:

> "Start with Strategic Foreclosures ("strategics"): people walking
> away from their home because they don't feel like paying for it anymore
> even know they can. This is a phenomenon which will become widespread
> and essentially mainstream in the coming months and years."
>
> Why not walk away? They put little down and have no equity. This
> would not have happened if the original lender had to service the
> loan for the full term.
>
>
> "In fact, in places like California immigrants -- even many illegals
> -- make up a very high proportion of the foreclosed homeowners. It
> is absurd to presume that a Vermont Yankee will behave anything like
> a Mexican drywaller."
>
> Brilliant statement. I am in Florida and many of the properties that
> are now foreclosures were bought by Yankee speculators. Unless you
> are an American Indian there is an immigrant in your woodpile.