mallarde

Home Sales Appear to Be on the Mend

The author might not have control over the headline. I believe another author distanced himself from a headline in the comments section. So it might not be fair to critique Mr. Avent based on the spin an editor might have given the article in the headline.

Pending Home Sales Up: Does That Mean Anything?

The bifurcation between the low end and the high end holds true in SoCal. High end properties continue to sit on the market because asking prices have not come down enough. (I would estimate 5% to 10% in my area.)

One condo came on the market down the street listed for $50K more than the same property in late-2006. They are still reaching for the stars, and I suppose there are still real estate agents willing to try to sell this B.S. to potential buyers.

I will be a renter for much longer.

The Average Home Price in Detroit Falls to $13,638

It might be fair to consider that the city limits of Detroit exclude -- I believe -- virtually all of the leafy suburbs where the rich and middle class live. Detroit proper might be almost all ghetto-land. Just saying...

Where Is That Mythical Housing Bottom?

xmplary, the housing industry may have been a large business. But it also represented a huge misallocation of capital. This occurred due to a market bubble. We should not try to keep pumping air into the bubble merely to perpetuate this misallocation of resources.

Building homes people do not want or need is economic waste.

Markets Are Working: CA Home Sales Increase +100% as Home Prices Fall

Prices in the higher end of the California market may be off 10% to 20% off the peak, but check out prices as recently as 2002. At least for condos, prices are STILL over 200% of prices in 2002! It's really amazing.

Even presuming that demand has gone up with population and there are more two income families, etc... some of these prices have far more to fall.

Smart people are renting. Homeowners trying to sell in this area seem like they just sent out agents looking for fools that fell off the back of the apple cart. The market might clear faster if there were not so many agents fighting to be the "listing agent" for homes in nicer areas.

Mortgage Refinancing Is Not the Solution

Why don't government officials talk about how consumer spending will benefit when people are not forced to spend 50% of their income on housing? Seems like the government focuses on keeping the market inflated to keep the unhealthy "high" going for speculators and home builders that really created no real wealth or misallocated capital.

How Much More Will Housing Prices Decline?

Consider: where did the Nasdaq stablilize compared to its 2000 highs?

Admittedly, not a perfect analogy, but the housing market still must absorb the blow of not being a popular investment vehicle, like tech stocks. We have all these For Rent signs littering my neighborhood because "investors" bought extra condos -- not to live in, but to flip after holding for awhile. Since they can't sell them at break even, they rent them. Once all these "investors" leave the scene, the market will lose this source of capital.

Supply and Demand: Housing Sales Increase in California and Florida

If a disproportionate number of sales can be attributed to foreclosures versus pre-bubble bursting when few were, then the numbers make sense.

In the nicer parts of Los Angeles, you see For Sale signs everywhere and, more often, For Rent signs. The price drops have a long way to go outside of foreclosure-land. To put it in perspective, prices for condos remain almost 100% greater than 2000 prices even after a slight decline off of the peak.

Personal Responsibility and the Housing Bubble

How many investors read a prospectus? What?! That is not the issue.

These people claim that they did not even know what their payments would be. Either there was fraud or they were irresponsible. One or the other. I would guess that fraud accounts for maybe 5% of the foreclosures. Greed accounts for the rest.


On Jan 04 09:52 AM rm wrote:

> [What happened to putting 20% down on a home?]
>
> If you'd like housing prices to deflate another 50%, then requiring
> a 20% dp would do nicely.
>
> [What happened to taking out a mortgage where the payments were affordable
> for the duration of the loan?]
>
> Now there's a good question. Pre-2003, you couldn't sell an adjustable
> rate mortgage with a shotgun in your hand.
>
> [The doctor admitted to not reading any of the loan documents saying
> she did not have time to do that since she was busy running her medical
> practice.]
>
> She's really not that unusual. Due diligence is a chore. How many
> average investors read a prospectus, much less get on any conference
> call, or check a company's financials before buying a stock? Watching
> Cramer or reading a blog is what passes for research.

Housing Data Shows Downturn Could Be Prolonged

A corollary to this article is that any money thrown at the housing market in an attempt to stop prices from declining further is wasted money.

I do not want my tax dollars wasted. It's like trying to stop an iceberg's movement. All that some of the relief plans would do is pay for a failed speculator's rent (mortgage) for another few months before he finally finds an apartment or a house he can afford.

I want no part of this.

Credit Suisse: Housing Bottom More Than a Year Away

How can no one mention our population explosion? Remember that whole supply-demand concept?

And what about dual income families? The newest generation of homebuyers is the first in which most women work and are often professionals earning comparable salaries. Once you have enough such dual income couples, the market has to adjust.

I hope Credit Suisse is correct, because I am renting and am waiting and watching.

Talk of a Real Estate Bottom Already Is a Waste of Breath

There are some factors that many neglect. First: immigration and population. Particularly in CA and FL, there is more demand for housing in good areas of cities. Second: double-income families. Families have engaged in an arms race and have been using women -- who used to stay out of the labor force -- for second incomes. Once enough families are double-income, the market adjusts up due to demand and more money that can flow to real estate.

This is not to say there is not more room for the market to fall. There is lots of room. I still hope all the air seeps out of this market over the next few years.