3 Reasons To Consider Going Long Cliffs Despite Goldman Downgrade [View article]
IMHO, current dividend is at risk. If they make money, yes, $22M per quarter payout is easy. However, they are not making much money and can even lose soon. Their net cash at Q3 end is now at $39.5M versus $545M one year ago.
A Potential Value Mirage In Western Union [View article]
Excellent article. I'm glad that more people are reading past annual reports in details.
I also found the quality of the WU agents are inferior to what MoneyGram has. For example, in the bay area, MGI has locations at Walmart, Longs and 7-elevens but WU has many no-name agent locations.
However, even with company's less than top notch quality of revenue, expensive M&A but with excellent cash flow (11%), continuing buy-back, will a price be attractive enough? $10? What's the downside risk?
Western Union Worth $16 Even After Earnings [View article]
It looks not that bad for 2012 EPS estimate from $1.68 to $1.60. Just a 5% decline or 8 cents.
However, the sum of EPS in 2012 from Q1 to Q3 is $1.29. It's known. This means that management is saying that the Q4 EPS will be only $0.31. This is a devastating 58% decline from Q4 2011's $0.73.
I chatted with a garnder. He used to use WU and MGI but likes MGI better due to its easier process. Now, his mom opens a bank account. No need for WU anymore. More and more people will have bank accounts. This is the reason that WU has very slow growth in the past 5 years. They need to continue to find people without bank accounts on the receiving end.
Buy The Post-Earnings Sell-Off In Western Union For Rebound Potential, 4% Yield [View article]
It looks not that bad for 2012 EPS from $1.68 to $1.60. Just a 5% decline.
However, the sum of EPS in 2012 from Q1 to Q3 is $1.29. It's already out. This means that management is saying that the Q4 EPS will be only $0.31. This is a devastating 58% decline from Q4 2011's $0.73
How and what can cause a company's earning drop this fast? Is moat still there?
The Chinese were in a position to force U.S. exploration companies to sign long-term supply agreements. Those deals still are being worked off. ------------------- Can you provide references where did you get above info or which companies are working with Chinese suppliers for a "long-term" agreement? ------------------- You also mentioned that
U.S. operators have learned the technology better and realize now that Carbo's products deliver superior returns on investment no matter what the Chinese price is. ---------------- Any references from the above statements? Which US operators have learned the lessons?
GameStop: Short Concerns Look Either Overblown or Premature [View article]
Thank you for sharing your excellent analysis.
At this moment, I still don't understand why shorts are all over this stock. It is neither a fraud / bad management or very overvalued. This left another reason of industry trend change, which is too early IMO for either digital delivery or used game sales.
One thing shorts attacks is insider selling. Your explanation on the largest seller of RIGGIO LEONARD makes good sense. Others sales are not very significant.
( Even ex-CFO, David W. Carlson, didn't seem to sell at all. He even bought 50,000 shares in open market ?? during May/June 09 before resigned in Aug 09. What's going on there? )
However, for a value investor, one question to ask is that why there is no or little insider purchase? How's their confidence?
SuperValu: Just Like an LBO but for Retail Investors [View article]
It's around LIBOR + 0.2% to 2.75% with fees up to another 2.5% for different types of credit facility.
You can find out details in
=========== 2010 Annual report on p 35 ============ The fees and rates in effect on outstanding borrowings under the Credit Agreement are based on the Company’s current credit ratings. Borrowings under the non-extended portion of the Revolving Credit Facility, if any, carry an interest rate of LIBOR plus 1.00 percent, borrowings under Term Loan A carry an interest rate of LIBOR plus 0.875 percent and borrowings under the non-extended portion of Term Loan B carry an interestrate of LIBOR plus 1.25 percent. Borrowings under the extended portion of the Revolving Credit Facility, if any, carry an interest rate of LIBOR plus 2.25 percent and borrowings under the extended portion of Term Loan B carry an interest rate of LIBOR plus 2.75 percent. Facility fees under the non-extended and extended portions of the Revolving Credit Facility are 0.20 percent and 0.50 percent, respectively. The Company pays fees of up to 2.50 percent on the outstanding balance of the letters of credit issued under the extended Revolving Credit Facility.
China MediaExpress: Q1 Results Confirm Strong Fundamentals [View article]
Can you help me with this?
Fujian Fenzhong in fact generates all the revenue. It is odd to me that CCME has no direct control in Fujian Fenzhong. The control is through contractual agreements. What if Fujian Fengzhong just violates the contract and willing to go to court.
Why set up in this way? Is this normal for Chinese companies?
3 Reasons To Consider Going Long Cliffs Despite Goldman Downgrade [View article]
A Potential Value Mirage In Western Union [View article]
I also found the quality of the WU agents are inferior to what MoneyGram has. For example, in the bay area, MGI has locations at Walmart, Longs and 7-elevens but WU has many no-name agent locations.
However, even with company's less than top notch quality of revenue, expensive M&A but with excellent cash flow (11%), continuing buy-back, will a price be attractive enough? $10? What's the downside risk?
Western Union Worth $16 Even After Earnings [View article]
However, the sum of EPS in 2012 from Q1 to Q3 is $1.29. It's known. This means that management is saying that the Q4 EPS will be only $0.31. This is a devastating 58% decline from Q4 2011's $0.73.
I chatted with a garnder. He used to use WU and MGI but likes MGI better due to its easier process. Now, his mom opens a bank account. No need for WU anymore. More and more people will have bank accounts. This is the reason that WU has very slow growth in the past 5 years. They need to continue to find people without bank accounts on the receiving end.
Buy The Post-Earnings Sell-Off In Western Union For Rebound Potential, 4% Yield [View article]
However, the sum of EPS in 2012 from Q1 to Q3 is $1.29. It's already out. This means that management is saying that the Q4 EPS will be only $0.31. This is a devastating 58% decline from Q4 2011's $0.73
How and what can cause a company's earning drop this fast? Is moat still there?
Carbo Ceramics: Price Pressure Intensifies [View article]
The Chinese were in a position to force U.S. exploration companies to sign long-term supply agreements. Those deals still are being worked off.
-------------------
Can you provide references where did you get above info or which companies are working with Chinese suppliers for a "long-term" agreement?
-------------------
You also mentioned that
U.S. operators have learned the technology better and realize now that Carbo's products deliver superior returns on investment no matter what the Chinese price is.
----------------
Any references from the above statements? Which US operators have learned the lessons?
Thanks a lot
Short Sears On Retail Weakness [View article]
RBS Partners is the parent company of Eddie Lampert's hedge fund ESL Investments. He will not offer more shares to sell in the stock market.
Bullish Spreads on Insurance Companies [View article]
GameStop: Short Concerns Look Either Overblown or Premature [View article]
At this moment, I still don't understand why shorts are all over this stock. It is neither a fraud / bad management or very overvalued. This left another reason of industry trend change, which is too early IMO for either digital delivery or used game sales.
One thing shorts attacks is insider selling. Your explanation on the largest seller of RIGGIO LEONARD makes good sense. Others sales are not very significant.
( Even ex-CFO, David W. Carlson, didn't seem to sell at all. He even bought 50,000 shares in open market ?? during May/June 09 before resigned in Aug 09. What's going on there? )
However, for a value investor, one question to ask is that why there is no or little insider purchase? How's their confidence?
SuperValu: Just Like an LBO but for Retail Investors [View article]
You can find out details in
=========== 2010 Annual report on p 35 ============
The fees and rates in effect on outstanding borrowings under the Credit Agreement are based on the Company’s current credit ratings. Borrowings under the non-extended portion of the Revolving Credit Facility, if any, carry an interest rate of LIBOR plus 1.00 percent, borrowings under Term Loan A carry an interest rate of LIBOR plus 0.875 percent and borrowings under the non-extended portion of Term Loan B carry an interestrate of LIBOR plus 1.25 percent. Borrowings under the extended portion of the Revolving Credit Facility, if any, carry an interest rate of LIBOR plus 2.25 percent and borrowings under the extended portion of Term Loan B carry an interest rate of LIBOR plus 2.75 percent. Facility fees under the non-extended and extended portions of the Revolving Credit Facility are 0.20 percent and 0.50 percent, respectively. The Company pays fees of up to 2.50 percent on the outstanding balance of the letters of credit issued under the extended Revolving Credit Facility.
China MediaExpress: Q1 Results Confirm Strong Fundamentals [View article]
Fujian Fenzhong in fact generates all the revenue. It is odd to me that CCME has no direct control in Fujian Fenzhong. The control is through contractual agreements. What if Fujian Fengzhong just violates the contract and willing to go to court.
Why set up in this way? Is this normal for Chinese companies?
Thanks
China MediaExpress: Q1 Results Confirm Strong Fundamentals [View article]
Thank you for your study on CCME. It's very interesting deal indeed.
I wonder why CCME wants to be listed in US with p/e multiple so low compared with those listed in China while most of the valuation will be higher?