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I used to run a limited partnership, boutique hedge fund in the 90s. Retired in 2000 and moved from New York City to Toronto, Canada, got married, raised a family and basically settled down. After a few years in Toronto, my wife got tired of the city’s 8 months of cold weather and insisted that... More
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DonorNation.org
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  • David Tepper Couldn't Be Reading Options2Wealth...Could He?

    Exactly 2 weeks ago, on May 26th, 2014, in the post titled The Nasdaq Correction Is Over...imho, I predicted the start of a new bull run by the NASDAQ and one of the reasons for my bullish pronouncement was the bearish sentiments pervading over the markets...In that post, I stated:

    About 2 weeks ago, a friend asked for my thoughts on the Nasdaq's health and my comment to him was that there is way too much fear in the markets, which, to me, serves as the contrarian indicator...The markets love to climb the wall of fear...more fear, the better...And when I read headlines like David Tepper, the top hedge-fund manager who 2 years in a row was the nation's highest earning market prognosticator, and one of its biggest bulls, was getting nervous, to me, that was yet another signal that the Nasdaq has established a bottom and is heading higher...

    goo.gl/iMNhWo

    Well, since my 2 week old bullish pronouncement, the NASDAQ has gone from 4,185.81 to this past Friday's close of 4321.40, up 3.24% and, as per my prediction, is now only 50 points away from eclipsing its near-term high established this past March of 4,371.71.

    Now here's the fun part: This past Thursday, on June 6th, exactly 10 days after my NASDAQ prediction, a chagrined David Tepper, returned to CNBC to confess that he indeed has seen the light, gotten religion and is back to being a bull again: www.valuewalk.com/2014/06/david-tepper-t.../

    Of course I am under no illusion that Mr. Tepper, who takes home multi-billion dollar paychecks, has even heard of me, let alone bothers to read my obscure blog, but nevertheless, it is fun to imagine and play along...

    :-)

    One of the reason's I started my blog is to keep a running record of all my market bets, good, bad or ugly...One unfinished business is to bring together, under the Options2Wealth umbrella, my previous market pronouncements as well...Therefore, if you will allow me the indulgence, I would, for the record, note my previous market predictions here as well:

    About 3 years ago, on June 6th, 2010 to be exact, well before I started Options2Wealth, I stumbled upon a blog on Seeking Alpha where the writer was all doom and gloom about the then health, or lack thereof, of the US stock market...The Dow had just rolled over and closed below 10,000...9,931.91 to be exact, and this blogger wrote a post titled: Friday's Controlled Descent in Equities: A Perfect Storm Is Brewing...to which I made the following comment:

    I disagree...

    First comments on this site...The is a market that is awash in liquidity and for someone who has been around the block a few times, high liquidity means high stock prices...PERIOD! All the doom and gloom is just what the doctor ordered so that all the weak hands let go of their stocks...What you are seeing is a consolidation of the 10,000 floor for the inevitable climb up...And mark my words, this market is going up and the ride is going to be a doozy!

    SafeList.com 6 Jun 2010, 10:37 AM

    (SafeList.com was the name of my then company and it was the moniker I used to use on Seeking Alpha)

    Then 8 months later, on February 1st, 2011, with the DOW up some 20%, I returned, not to thump my chest and take a bow, but instead, to make yet another crazy prediction, commenting on another of this blogger's bearish posts, this one titled, A Turning Point in Gold:

    Bo,

    On June 6th, I posted my very first comment on Seeking Alpha, to one of your posts "Friday's Controlled Descent: A Perfect Storm is Brewing," and for that post, I received 29 Thumbs Down...LOL!

    In disagreeing with your post then, I said the following:

    "The is a market that is awash in liquidity and for someone who has been around the block a few times, high liquidity means high stock prices...PERIOD! All the doom and gloom is just what the doctor ordered so that all the weak hands let go of their stocks...What you are seeing is a consolidation of the 10,000 floor for the inevitable climb up...And mark my words, this market is going up and the ride is going to be a doozy!"

    Today, 6 months later, the DOW has moved up 20% in just 6 months, from 10,000 then to today's 12,000. And just like I predicted, the ride has been a "doozy!"

    Now, 6 months later, unfortunately, I again have to disagree with your fundamental assertion...If the price of gold goes up, it will be because there are 3 billion folks in India and China whose living standards are rising and they are becoming a part of the middle class and they need a way to flaunt their wealth and buying and wearing gold is an age old tradition...nothing more. The US monetary policy has been ABSOLUTELY CORRECT for the last 2 years. Even the gloomiest economist and a perennial Bear, Robert Aliber, has turned into a Bull and is predicting a gangbuster US economy for 2011...

    Even though the Dow is up 20% since my last post, this doozy ride is just getting started...If you are hunkering down and buying gold as a defensive position, with the expectation that this stock market move is a fool's move, then, I am afraid you will find yourself on the sidelines, with this freight train of a Bull market will continue to roar along, without you, for the ride of a lifetime...

    :-)

    kp

    Feb 1 12:23 PM|1 LikeLike|Report Abuse|

    seekingalpha.com/user/665090/comments

    (For those who are still reading this post, you will have accurately surmised that I had to be under the influence of some intoxicant (red wine), because I incorrectly counted my time since my previous post to 6 months instead of the correct 8 months...LOL)

    -------------------------------

    Now, 3 years later, the DOW is up another 40+%, and almost daily, along with the S&P, is making new, all-time highs and only the NASDAQ is behind the curve...Many of my regular readers must be aware that I am on the record, as far back as July 26th, 2013, in a blog post titled The Impending Move In Apple..., predicting the inevitability of the NASDAQ, joining its peers, the S&P, the DOW and the RUSSELL 2000, in making new all-time highs...Has not happened yet, and certainly didn't happen within my predicted time frame of "6-9 months," but new high it shall make...

    ...And it will, this year!

    Hopefully, readers of my blog will not take this post in the wrong context, as an exercise in self-aggrandizement, but will recognize that my recent prediction on the NASDAQ is not an isolated prediction and that there is a method to my madness...

    :-)

    kp

    DISCLAIMER: All postings made here are strictly for my personal record keeping and in no way, shape or form, am I even remotely suggesting others to follow my pronouncements / prognostications. However, if, in spite of all my exhortations, should you decide to do so, be advised that you, and ONLY YOU will be responsible for any losses that you may suffer...In other words, the onus is strictly on you. On the other hand, if the move(s) result in a profit for you, I am open to discussing a split. ;-)

    Disclosure: I am long QQQ.

    Jun 08 8:20 PM | Link | 3 Comments
  • UPDATE: Re: To All Those Who Walked The Talk: Thank You!

    Further to my April 30th post, I would like to put a shining spotlight on all those who opened up their wallets and donated to the various non-profits on the DonorNation platform...

    First and foremost, I want to acknowledge Mr. David Dolgen of San Diego, who goes by the handle doubld...David, blew me away by donating...drum-roll please...$55,000! That's right...it's not a misprint...The bulk of David's money went to Planned Parenthood of San Diego and he also donated to Crohn's and Colitis Foundation...David, my hat's off to you...you are a true Giver and because of your amazing generosity, I will make doubly sure that you do especially well with your portfolio because I know that you will always give and give BIG in the future! Thank You, David!

    In addition to David Dolgen, I also want to thank the following individuals:

    Mr. James Hill of Los Angeles donated $7,000 to ArtReach, EcoLife, Reality Changers and the New Children's Museum. James, who is a very talented sculptor, also donated to my company, the beautiful, hand-crafted, 24 carat gold plated DonorNation School Volunteer of the Year Award Trophy...Thank you, James! Here's a link to James' website where you can see his beautiful artwork...My wife and I are proud collectors of his art...Website: www.jameshill.com/ ;

    Ms. Lanh Tran of San Diego donated $7,000 to Feeding America.

    Ms. Lily Youkhanna donated $7,000 to a number of non-profits.

    Mr. Frank Reich donated $2,000 to a couple of non-profits.

    Casey Fersch: $1,000

    Thomas Bangsted: $950

    Damien Iniguez: $500

    Chet Kagel: $500

    Rohan Pendharkar: $500

    Mike Cifone: $350

    Brian Conklin: $300

    Aron Hauser: $100

    Eran Lewis: $70

    I am very proud of my band of passionate Givers who collectively gave a total of $82,270(!!!) to various worthy non-profits on the DonorNation platform. To truly appreciate the difference you Givers are making in our Communities, I would like to share an email that James Hill received from the Executive Director of ArtReach:

    From: Judy Berman Silbert

    Subject: A huge ArtReach thank you!

    Date: May 4, 2014 at 12:03:44 PM PDT

    To: James Hill

    Reply-To: Judy Berman Silbert

    Hi James,

    Your very generous donation to ArtReach has left us quite speechless. Thank you so very much. We feel especially privileged to have the support of artists like you. Thank you for helping us deliver visual arts education to under served schools in our county. Please let me know any time if you would like more information about our program and, please accept this as our first informal thanks for your generosity. You will receive a letter for your records within the next few weeks.

    With great respect,

    Judy

    Judy Berman Silbert
    ArtReach Executive Director

    http://www.artreachsandiego.org
    https://www.facebook.com/ArtReachSD

    Our other Givers have received very similar thank you notes from the heads of various non-profits who benefited from their respective generosities. What a great feeling, not just for the Givers and the non-profits, but also for me personally, knowing that the Options2Wealth blog played the role of the catalyst.

    Thank You, Thank You, Thank You!!!

    karim

    Jun 08 6:32 PM | Link | 18 Comments
  • The Nasdaq Correction Is Over...imho

    I have been closely monitoring the Nasdaq since early March when it started it's downward spiral after printing an intra-day high of 4,371.71 on March 3rd, 2014 and then falling almost 426 points or 9.74%, to an intra-day low of 3946.028 printed 42 days later on April 15th.

    Since then, for 4 consecutive weeks, Nasdaq has made higher lows on its weekly chart and then, this past Friday, it closed at 4,185.81, just above its April 9th intra-day high of 4,185.187.

    I believe that by closing above 4,185 on Friday, the Nasdaq Index has ended it's downward swoon and will now be attacking its recent high of 4,371.71 and within the next 2-4 weeks, the Nasdaq should make a new near-term high. Once it has done that, it will then aim its sights on its all-time high of 5,132.52, set all the way back on March 10th, 2000.

    As many of you know, I have been on the record, saying that this bull market will not take a breather until the NASDAQ makes a new all-time high, just like the S&P, the Dow and also the Russell 2000...Back in 2000, when the NASDAQ made it's last all-time high, there was no Google, no Facebook, no Apple (recently resurrected, that is) and no Tesla for that matter...and in spite of the addition of these mega market-cap companies to the index and in spite of the fact that these companies have been able to garner stratospheric valuation, the NASDAQ is yet to make a new all-time high...

    If my market read is correct, then I expect the NASDAQ to make a big move up, as soon as tomorrow, but certainly in the next week or ten days max...and on substantially higher volume than its recent daily average...that should be the absolute final confirmation...

    The following 3 charts graphically illustrate my assertion...

    (click to enlarge)

    (click to enlarge)(click to enlarge)

    About 2 weeks ago, a friend asked for my thoughts on the Nasdaq's health and my comment to him was that there is way too much fear in the markets, which, to me, serves as the contrarian indicator...The markets love to climb the wall of fear...more fear, the better...And when I read headlines like David Tepper, the top hedge-fund manager who 2 years in a row was the nation's highest earning market prognosticator, and one of its biggest bulls, was getting nervous, to me, that was yet another signal that the Nasdaq has established a bottom and is heading higher...

    goo.gl/iMNhWo

    Let's see if my reading of the tea leaves is correct and the markets head higher or whether David Tepper's nervousness is presciently flashing the correct red signal and the markets head lower, in which case, I'll have egg on my face...

    All imho...

    Side Note: For those who have been patiently waiting for me to start my newsletter, I finally have good news...Now that the Nasdaq has finally given me the buy signal, I am ready to start my new Options2Wealth fund!

    karim

    DISCLAIMER: All postings made here are strictly for my personal record keeping and in no way, shape or form, am I even remotely suggesting others to follow my pronouncements / prognostications. However, if, in spite of all my exhortations, should you decide to do so, be advised that you, and ONLY YOU will be responsible for any losses that you may suffer...In other words, the onus is strictly on you. On the other hand, if the move(s) result in a profit for you, I am open to discussing a split. ;-)

    May 26 11:13 PM | Link | 5 Comments
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