Hugo van der Vlist

Will Apple Record Another Halt-Trading Big Beat?

Andy, if Apple announces share buybacks or dividend that would change the situation, I think that would be applauded by the market. Otherwise, if Apple beats expectations (even by far) but are also really cautious in their outlook, I think the stock will tank.

Will Apple Record Another Halt-Trading Big Beat?

Hi Andy, I appreciate all the work you've done, but I'm not sure I agree with you on where the stock price will go after hours today. Why? Apple has previously blown away estimates, but because they were also very cautious in their outlook, the stock tanked. That has happened several times, and I think that in these uncertain times, Apple will surely be very cautious in their outlook. Apple may have sold a lot of iphones, macs and ipods during the holiday quarter, but it it very well possible that most Americans and a lot of Europeans hvae used the holiday quarter to buy some Apple goodies, but are now waiting until the economy turns around. That would not be good for Apple. So I'm on the sideline, I don't take the risk.

Apple: Great Company with Lofty Valuation - Due for Pullback

So Mark Krieger is short AAPL and he writes why he thinks Apple will pull back. If AAPL pulls back that would suit him, of coursw. So why does he write this article. Is there any news in it? I don't think so.

Assessing the Wild Card in the iPhone Rollout

I have bought and sold Apple shares over the past years and I've made a lot of money on those, even with the dip early this year. I have now invested most of my money in AAPL, because I think they will do even better. Better sales of Macs, more iPhones, lots of iPods. I have just upgraded my iPod touch to 2.0, and I can see the importance of apps to the future of AAPL. These apps will attract a lot of people to iPhones and iPod touch, because they make the device very versatile. Now imagine Apple coming out with a bigger iPod touch, let's call it a Mactouch. A bigger screen, but with the same neat touch interface as the iPhone. This will be the next generation of computing, I'm sure. AAPL will double or triple its footprint in computers immediately. When will this happen? Within a year or two. Why so fast? Because the interface is ready, the only thing that needs to be done is to adapt programs like Word, Excel and others to accept the new way of computing, by touch.

The Screws Tighten on Apple Investors

Besides all the TA and market analysis, what I see is just this: Apple is making lots of money, and will make even more money in the second half of 2008. Still, the share price is below where it was at the beginning of 2008. So we can go a little higher still. Especially because the market share in computers has a lot of room for expansion. iPhone will be a hit too, although not everybody seems to notice yet.

Is Steve Jobs Sick Again, or Just Thin?

If you think about the amount of work that Steve must have put in to get the iPhone out, and if you also know he's a workaholic, then you can imagine that he has been under a lot of stress lately. That could be the only reason that he is a bit thinner than before. I'm sure if the iPhone and all the Apps are turning out to be a huge success, Steve will get himself some rest.

Is There a Connection Between Internet Advertising and the Economy?

You're right, if people feel they have less money to spend they will stay indoors more often. They might still buy a new computer or iPod, because that seems a better investment than a tank of gas or a take away meal.

In Anticipation of Google's Earnings

Yeah, sure, we like our favorites better when they are cheaper... what a load of crap.

Blame it on iPod's Near Zero Growth

Apple still made 17% more on iPods, the absolute numbers are not the only thing you need to look at, they are selling more expensive iPods like the iPod touch. That's good!

Apple's Addiction to UPOD: Under Promise, Over Deliver

Additional information:

If you compare the Q1 results and Q2 predictions from 2007 with this year, you will see that Apple hasn't guided lower at all!

Apple made 7.1 billion in sales for Q1 in 2007 and predicted between 4.8 and 4.9 billion for Q2 2007, that's 68% of Q1. Profits were 1.14 per share in Q1 2007 and Apple predicted between 0.54 and 0.56 for Q2, that's 48% of Q1.

Now, for 2008, Apple did 9.6 billion in sales, and predicts 6.8 billion for Q2, that's 72% of Q1. Profits were 1.76 per share in Q1, predictions are 0.94 in Q2, that's 53% of Q1.

So Apple predicts an additional rise in sales of 4 points, and an accelerated rise in profits of 5 points, compared to last year. I think that's good!

Why Does Apple Always Give Low Guidance? Is this a Rhetorical Question?

'dramatic lowered guidance' ??? No, it is not very different from last year, and it's even better:

If you compare the Q1 results and Q2 predictions from 2007 with this year, you will see that Apple hasn't guided lower at all!

Apple made 7.1 billion in sales for Q1 in 2007 and predicted between 4.8 and 4.9 billion for Q2 2007, that's 68% of Q1. Profits were 1.14 per share in Q1 2007 and Apple predicted between 0.54 and 0.56 for Q2, that's 48% of Q1.

Now, for 2008, Apple did 9.6 billion in sales, and predicts 6.8 billion for Q2, that's 72% of Q1. Profits were 1.76 per share in Q1, predictions are 0.94 in Q2, that's 53% of Q1.

So Apple predicts an additional rise in sales of 4 points, and an accelerated rise in profits of 5 points, compared to last year. I thinnk that's good!

Earnings Power vs. Investor Sentiment

Regarding Apple, the red dots of the consensus estimate are still going up, but not as much as in the past year. However, at this moment in time it is very hard to predict Apple's earnings, because they have only just started in the phone business. It looks like they are doing extremely well in that department, so it is only logical that earnings estimates will rise in the coming year, something that's not yet reflected in the chart. And Apple has a massive amount of money to start another new venture if they wish to do so, like television, navigation or gaming. Don't forget they are doing very well in the PC business too. So I'm not too worried about the share price of AAPL.

iPhones Sold Out at Majority of Apple Stores

Talk about critical: I don't think Samsung has a problem with supplying chips, a bigger problem could be the touch displays from Balda in Germany, because Sharp seems unable to up the production. Balda however will increase production, but it is uncertain if this will lead to shortage in the shops.

Apple TV Isn't Perfect - But So What?

iTunes (and Youtube) not HD, so what? Do you have that same complaint when you're watching Youtube movies on your computer?? It will get better in the future, but for now Youtube is just fun to watch if there's nothing interesting on tv.

Hugo.

Apple TV Isn't Perfect - But So What?

So you're not buying an Apple tv. Big deal, it's only $299, so why not just try it and see how it evolves. I think the Youtube connection will now really start to boost sales of Apple tv. I already bought one when it came out, only to find out that I could not get it connected to my widescreen tv. I will go buy a plasma in a week or two, just in time for the Youtube connection.

Hugo.