Latin America production of wheat was very affected by weather conditions. To much Fusarium due to heavy rain. This will put pressure on the offer side from Brasil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay. I agree, Wheat should go up.
Regards
Daniel Fernández Danvila External Asset Manager Uruguay
OPEC meets this week in Vienna, where discussions likely will be dominated by clashes over the appointment of a new leader for the group, leaving it ill-equipped to grapple with falling demand and a surge in production from both inside and outside OPEC, which prompts some observers to expect the cost of a barrel of crude to fall sharply next year. [View news story]
OIL seems like cheap at this level ? ... demand on emerging markets is strong. Population growth will continue and nowadays that more people can afford a car or a motorbike. If world GDP grow as expected in 2013 and the dollar loosing some purchase power because of QE... why OIL price should continue to go down ?
In addition to lowering its forecast for world oil demand, the IEA warned its projections could fall even further - a "big admission" for a group typically comfortable with erring on the high side, says VTB Capital. Monthly data also provide bearish numbers, with inventories rising in October (they typically fall) to 59.6 days of demand coverage. How is Brent holding above $100/barrel? [View news story]
Oil demand lowering .....really ? I live in Uruguay a litle country in Latin America. Here, everybody is buying new cars and motorbikes. Very few run bicycles and the ones who bought motorbikes, if they have less money in their pockets, maybe they eat less, but they would not going to stop riding their motorbikes. Agribusiness and Forest are in an historic uuge. And because of them new trucks are on the road every day. We will need a real economic crash here to see people consuming less gasoline. For now, the economic slowdown in developed markets are not hurting local markets in Latin America. The same situation is happening in Brasil, Chile, Paraguay, Colombia and others. I think similar situations are happening in the bigger players as China, Russia, India, Australia, etc.
So I don´t feel a lower demand in OIL in emerging markets.
I might be very confused, but for me OIL demand is strong in emerging markets and if developed markets imporve, demand will be stronger.
Regards Lic. Daniel Fernández Danvila External Asset Manager
Commodities Chart Of The Day: Crude Oil [View article]
Thanks Mat ... I agree with you ... OIL seems oversold ... but markets seelms bearish ... I bought some long positions arround 90 ... now waiting ... if prices continue falling and 80 is tested, I will add some more.
Commodity Chart Of The Day: Wheat [View article]
I agree, Wheat should go up.
Regards
Daniel Fernández Danvila
External Asset Manager
Uruguay
OPEC meets this week in Vienna, where discussions likely will be dominated by clashes over the appointment of a new leader for the group, leaving it ill-equipped to grapple with falling demand and a surge in production from both inside and outside OPEC, which prompts some observers to expect the cost of a barrel of crude to fall sharply next year. [View news story]
In addition to lowering its forecast for world oil demand, the IEA warned its projections could fall even further - a "big admission" for a group typically comfortable with erring on the high side, says VTB Capital. Monthly data also provide bearish numbers, with inventories rising in October (they typically fall) to 59.6 days of demand coverage. How is Brent holding above $100/barrel? [View news story]
Agribusiness and Forest are in an historic uuge. And because of them new trucks are on the road every day. We will need a real economic crash here to see people consuming less gasoline. For now, the economic slowdown in developed markets are not hurting local markets in Latin America. The same situation is happening in Brasil, Chile, Paraguay, Colombia and others. I think similar situations are happening in the bigger players as China, Russia, India, Australia, etc.
So I don´t feel a lower demand in OIL in emerging markets.
I might be very confused, but for me OIL demand is strong in emerging markets and if developed markets imporve, demand will be stronger.
Regards
Lic. Daniel Fernández Danvila
External Asset Manager
Commodities Chart Of The Day: Crude Oil [View article]
China to Bolster Global Oil Prices [View article]