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  • Apple Investors May Need A Reality Check  [View article]
    I think another repatriation is unlikely. It will be a difficult sell in the current political climate (as in, tax cut for huge corporations, ha!) and there is a moral hazard involved. Lets be clear, Apple can repatriate these profits, they just don't want to pay taxes in the US on it. They are hoping for (and lobbying for) another repatriation holiday. If there had not been the previous holiday, these companies would be much less likely to hold all this money outside the US waiting for the next holiday.
    Apr 4, 2014. 02:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Making Sense Of The Market In U.S. CDS  [View article]
    I'm wondering which banks have written CDS on US govt debt. Since this was viewed as a riskless proposition (ring a bell?), it would not be surprising to find out that there is a new "AIG" out there praying that the US does not default. If Dodd-Frank was fully implemented, it would not be a question who is writing what.
    Oct 8, 2013. 10:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Felix Salmon Smackdown Watch, Debt Prioritization Edition  [View article]
    I don't buy the argument that bondholders should be prioritized above Social Security recipients for their own good. Tell that to an elderly person who worked their whole life and lives check to check. A delay in getting their check can mean hunger, missed prescription drugs, no heating oil, no gas for their car, etc. And for how long? If no default occurs, will the House wait days, weeks, even months before finally raising the debt ceiling? Further, shutting down entitlement programs rewards those who see this whole debacle as a way to cut entitlement programs in the first place. I think Americans are tired of seeing bankers come first. Yes, those with investments, pensions, etc would suffer, but it is not clear that even if the US made the interest and principal payments that the market would not tank or that a credit crunch would not happen. These things are not nearly as predictable as the chattering class pretends.
    Oct 8, 2013. 10:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dow Will Be Closer To 14000 By The End Of 2012  [View article]
    >>Therefore, the probability of a euro Crisis (if it happens) to impact United States is low.

    *If* the Euro Crisis happens? Have you read any financial or news publication in the last six months?
    Jun 25, 2012. 03:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple And Facebook Should Be Afraid Of Google's Glasses  [View article]
    >>The mere fact everyone is even debating this = Google Winning

    Google only wins if consumers buy it. A bunch of investors and techies discussing the feasibility is hardly a win. Look at all of the hype around Google TV. Did that translate to a win (market share, revenue)? Not yet.
    Apr 5, 2012. 11:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple And Facebook Should Be Afraid Of Google's Glasses  [View article]
    We are a long way from display glasses that don't cause dizziness and eye strain in a large percentage of people. It is a very interesting project to techies, like me, but it is of zero interest to me as an investor. Call me in five years. More interesting and practical are user interfaces that track eye and facial movements. Expect to have this in your Mac or iPad much sooner. It already has the user facing camera....
    Apr 5, 2012. 11:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is the Japan Crisis Completely Overblown?  [View article]
    The over the top coverage on CNN and elsewhere understandably makes one doubt the seriousness of this situation. However, I think the markets are underestimating the potential impact of all the unknowns.

    - What is the future of nuclear power in Japan? It provides 30% of there energy. After 3 Mile Island, no new plants were built in the US for decades. Will Japan be buying far more oil when the economy recovers? Will the cost of oil hold back a recovery?

    - It is unclear how many people are in the nuke plant. Some reports say 180 workers in cycles of 50 at a time. Other reports say that police and solders have also joined the fight. If reports of radiation levels at the plants are correct, many of these people will become very ill or die of radiation sickness. Survivor stories, widow's stories, lawsuits, etc will be in world media for years.

    - The Tepco power company has reported lost it little remaining credibility with the Japanese public. This will be a major roadblock to the future of nuclear power in Japan.

    - The Japanese government has also reportedly lost considerable credibility with the Japanese public. This could cause political instability that will hold back a recovery.

    - A huge swath of land (20 sq miles or more) *may* be uninhabitable for centuries or will cost a vast sum to cleanup. No one really know how big an area this will be as it depends on what happens at the plant, the weather, etc.

    - Some ground water will be contaminated. No one knows how bad this will be yet or how far it will spread.

    - There is a possibility that winds could carry levels of radioactivity to Tokyo that are high enough to cause widespread panic. What happens if people flee a city of 12 million?

    - What if major decontamination efforts are needed in Tokyo? Are we talking billions or trillions in clean up cost?

    - What will happen to Sendi, a city of 1 million? If there is a nuclear no-mans-land close by, will anyone be willing to rebuild?

    This list could go on and on and none of that even considers the social and monetary cost of the earthquake and tsunami in Japan and worldwide.
    The comparisons to 9-11, St. Hellens, forest fires, earthquakes, etc. are faulty. The costs of radiation contamination on human health and the cleanup costs are largly unknown at this point. You can cite Chernobal, but there are so many differences, it becomes speculation. There has never been a nuclear accident of this scale with this amount of radiological material ever in human history. It is taking place in a densly populated country with two other major disasters to cope with.
    So is the crisis overblown? It depends which experts you ask. Major uncertainty and risks clearly exist.
    Mar 18, 2011. 09:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • China: The Bear Case  [View article]
    Assuming one agrees that it is a bubble, what is the smart play?
    Dec 13, 2010. 04:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Google TV: Can Google Prosper Where Apple Failed?  [View article]
    Not entirely true. I have both devices and I find myself using the Apple TV for renting movies over the Roku. On the Apple TV, it is actually fun to browse for a movie. No so with Roku and Amazon Direct.
    Sep 21, 2010. 03:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google TV: Can Google Prosper Where Apple Failed?  [View article]
    Do people really want to check facebook from their tv? They already have it on their laptop, desktop, and cell phones. Isn't it kind of private to display on a 42" screen where your kids or parents can see? Besides, I already have it from my FIOS cable box and it is pointless. Would love to see some real usage stats.
    Sep 21, 2010. 03:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Works With Apple to Become Top App Stock  [View article]
    International growth will be limited by network bandwidth and competition from pirated DVDs.
    Sep 13, 2010. 10:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment