pingish's Comments

Crox in Freefall: Will It Land in the Bargain Basement?

Thu, 10 Jan 2008 04:43:51 -0500

Shorts have been leaning on this name for quite some time... and getting killed until recently. Author is correct to try and not picking bottoms.

As for me, I think that the shorting is a little overdone and am interested in seeing the short interest for January. My personal belief is the Crocs are not a fad. They've become a staple shoe for people whose job is to spend their entire day on their feet.

Instead of soaking their feet for a half an hour after work, these guys just pop off their Crocs and go out. There's value there.

Crocs' New Majority Shareholder

Fri, 21 Dec 2007 14:23:10 -0500

nice article. I thought the selling was overdone... when we dropped PE from 40ish to 15ish. What's interesting is that Crocs sell for more overseas than they do in the United States, and you see them everywhere in Asia.

Is Crocs Doomed For Failure?

Thu, 04 Oct 2007 00:45:29 -0400

I wonder how many shorts write about their positions from a domestic point of view.

Anyone here been to Shanghai or Taipei or anywhere else where Crocs craze is in full fury and the market penetration is still 10%??

Crocs will one day be a short. I'd be surprised of Crocs is a short within the next two quarters.

And somehow, the fad labels come out before earnings...

Don't Get Caught With Your Crocs Down

Thu, 26 Jul 2007 00:48:23 -0400

Andrew,

I understand what you are saying. I actually we can see hysteria on both sides. A simple look at the Y! message board for CROX, and you'll see all kinds of shorts and bulls peddling their fear and greed.

In this case, there's no doubt that the stakes are high for both the CROX bull or bear. I've been run over by earnings before, and think that get-risk-off-table-and... is my kind of strategy as volatility builds. between earnings announcements.

In your response to others, you post data that says insiders have sold a total of 1779645 post-split shares (multiplied all the numbers of your post before 6/15 by 2 and added it to the one trade post-6/15). This represents less than 25% of daily average. As a bull, I'm not terribly concerned.

As for the putative 40MM shares short submitted by another responder... I'm looking on my TD Ameriturd and E*Turd research, and I see a 28% of float (~78MM shares) short, which I compute to 20MM shares. With average volume ~5MM, I compute a short-ratio around 4, which isn't nearly what it was for the previous jump.

What after-hours brings tomorrow, I'm not sure even insiders know. But there's always a trade for making money, and if you're not in a trade, I think selling ATM calendars might just do the trick:

If I were looking to get into a trade, I'd be looking for a high-volatility/not-he... bet tomorrow, and I think that comes in the form of selling a call or put calendar either:

Buy to Open CROX Aug 50 Call
Sell to Open CROX Sep 50 Call

-or-

Buy to Open CROX Aug 50 Put
Sell to Open CROX Sep 50 Put

Don't Get Caught With Your Crocs Down

Sat, 21 Jul 2007 01:11:46 -0400

Adrew:

What worst are you talking about? I'm confused. I offered 3 observations, then I offered a trade (not investment) for playing the earning that was bullish going into earnings then "who-knows" afterwards (i.e. put some chips on the table and wait for the hype to build going into earnings -- then get out).

If you are reading a tone with my words, it is a tone you are hearing, not one that I am writing.

In response to your comment:

I did consider the 45 puts: I sold the CROX Jul 45 Puts for $2.45. I also made a little change selling the CROX Jul 50 Calls for $0.50 (in case you think I'm always bullish).

Whether Crocs are a fad will be something for history to decide. The trades are fraught with risk on either side. I think the true danger for bears is the foreign currency risk. According to their 10-Q, their suppliers are paid with USD.; with Crocs repatriating their international revenue back into USD, they're going to be coming home with more dollars than expected. International sales represented 44% of their total sales, up from 22% from the same quarter last year.

On the risk to bulls, I am roiled by the question of whether or knock-out earnings are priced in. As in, when beating earnings and raising guidance in an upmarket with a short-ratio of 6 doesn't move the stock up, there's no place to go but the direction you're projecting.

Don't Get Caught With Your Crocs Down

Fri, 20 Jul 2007 18:46:06 -0400

1. The Crocs store in Shanghai was getting mobbed.

2. Crocs aren't bought because of high-fashion... they are bought because of their utility.

3. You can get knock-off Crocs (though Gen Y'ers wouldn't be caught dead with knock-offs), but you can't get knockoffs with your favorite NFL team or Spidey-Crocs. This is where CROX is going to pull ahead.

Good blog. I like hearing dissent from my opinions. I think the trade is to get in CROX Aug 50 Calls @ 2.30; CROX is trading at support right now (got pegged at $45). Get your risk off the table prior to earnings and let what's remaining ride. You may see a hefty upside (like the $350 -> $6000 I got last time), or you might see nadda when CROX trades to $40.

Options Trader: Friday Morning Ideas

Sat, 07 Jul 2007 18:44:58 -0400

I think the NMX play is a diagonal.
Sell to Open NMX July 140 Calls
Buy to Open NMX August 130 Calls

The Crux of Crocs' Valuation

Sat, 07 Jul 2007 17:40:20 -0400

The Crocs store in Shanghai is selling gangbusters. The house was packed. With repatriation at weaker dollar levels, we're talking monster revenues to boot.

Dendreon: The Next Genentech/Amgen?

Sat, 05 May 2007 01:36:56 -0400

This story is pretty much garbage. Anyone who understands biotech understands that there are few proven paths from biotechnology research outfit to biotech giant. DNDN has taken the first step of a long marathon on which many