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bogus07

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  • Kandi Simply Explained, And Its Valuation [View instapost]
    Ankurj: let me use a simple example to validate the seemingly "double count" valuation method used by the author. Say you are in the business of selling tomatoes to a sandwich shop of which you also own 50%. Say you get $1 rev for each tomato you sell to the sandwich shop for a profit of 10c (10% Net margin). With the tomato they make subs and sell for $5 each for a profit of $1 (20% Net margin). So you make a total profit of 10c+50c= 60c off each tomato you sell b/c you also get 1/2 of the profit of the sub sale. Although each sale (tomato=parts, sub=car) has a different margin, both contributes to putting more money into your pocket vs. just selling tomatoes and just selling subs. However GAAP allows you to only book the $1 sale of the tomato, not any sale of subs (unless you own more than 50%). But your real profit is 60c per tomato. Does that mean your NM is 60% or 10%? Neither one is good IMO b/c a GAAP valuation based on "earnings" only (P/E approach) would lead to a serious mispricing of your business in this case, either too high if a NM of 60% or too low if a NM of 10% of a rev of $1. With the P/S method, the author is proposing pricing the business based on 6x its "adjusted" rev equal to $1+ $5/2= $3.5 based on the real revenue contributed by each part of the business.
    Mar 20, 2015. 11:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Red Flags In Kandi Technologies' Financial Statements [View article]
    Tom:if you are admittedly too lazy to look up why the CFO and GAAP Net Income decreased in recent quarters, why the heck did you take the time to write this worthless piece? Why not write on stocks you are invested in and are more willing to share your DD and insight with readers? That SA even published it is beyond me!
    Dec 28, 2014. 02:31 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kandi Technologies - Highlights Of The Second U.S. Investor And Analyst Conference [View article]
    Michael: be careful with terms like "average return per year". If somebody bought a stock at $1 per share on Jan 01, 2009 and sells the stock at $5 per share on Jan 01, 2014, he has realized a return of 500% in 5 years. That doesn't mean that his average return is 100% per year although intuitively many people would agree with that. Mathematically however, a quintupling of price (or 400% increase) means a CAGR (compounded average growth rate) of 37.97% = 1- 5^(1/5).

    Strictly speaking, an "average annual return of 100%" over a period of 5 years means the price has doubled every year for 5 years. So if the stock trades at $1 in Year 0, it should trade at $32 (not $5) in Year 5 if it has doubled every year in 5 years. Because 32 = 2^5 for an annual average growth rate of 100%. Anyway as an investor I would take a 5x price within 5 years anytime. If KNDI price goes from $1.32/share in Nov 2009 to $14.17/share in Sep 2014, it's twice as good!
    Nov 17, 2014. 11:40 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kandi Technologies - Rising Revenues, Earnings, And Short Interest [View article]
    exactly. The only reason GAAP eps came in so strong this Q is b/c of the 10M+ gain from derivatives fair value due only to a strong pps decline vs last Q. That's nothing to bragg about. What really stands out is that Q3 non-GAAP Net Income of 5.37M not only exceeded 2013 strongest quarter ( Q4'13= 4.70M) but also all 2013 Net Income (5.16M). That really shows Q3'14 was an excellent quarter. Balance sheet looks also super strong!
    Nov 12, 2014. 08:25 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kandi Technologies Thrives In The Fast Growing Electric Car Market [View article]
    the one- and two-year pps charts comparing the top manufacturers are real eye openers. While KNDI comes out as the clear winner in the first one, the two-year chart shows how KNDI and TSLA's stocks are tied at the hip despite the different markets the companies target. Well done Michael.
    Nov 4, 2014. 07:08 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kandi Technologies Continues To Dominate China Electric Car Market [View article]
    Thanks Mike. You certainly know how to present a wealth of latest information with attractive charts and pics. One of your best KNDI articles IMO.
    Oct 15, 2014. 10:26 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Different Case For Valuing Kandi [View article]
    Mr Wallace: Do you drive by looking in the rearview mirror? Or does a ice hockey player play by looking where the puck is? When trying to assess a growth company with disruptive technology like Kandi (or Microsoft in the early 80's, Apple in 2008-09 before the launch of its Ipad and Iphone...) , it helps to look forward ,or in the ice hockey analogy, look where the puck is going, not where it has been or is. Otherwise, by applying standard valuation metrics to such companies, what you come up with is utter nonsense.

    Huh... compare Kandi's EV near-future EV production growth with the 14.9% growth rate for EVs to 2018 by the Irish Research and markets? How about try to put Kandi in the right context of China's rapidly growing EV market and understand that what we are seeing is just the early stage of a very dynamic market with many floodgates still NOT open, like Hangzhou and many other cities having not even released their subsidy policy critical to Kandi;s EV sales? Here is a statistic that shows that, even in the context just mentioned, China's July NEV production of pure EV passenger cars (the market Kandi is in) has grown 1700% compared to last year and 700% in the first 7 months of 2014. Of course there is a lot more relevant research and evidence to back up the growth assumptions made by Gerard Klein and Rob Cass in their most recent articles if you care to do serious DD here which I donot think you did.

    >>According to the National Commission by letter Equipment Industry Statistics, July, new energy vehicles in pure electric passenger car production 3728, an increase of 17 times, plug-in hybrid vehicle production 1036, no production in the same period last year; pure electric commercial vehicle production 362, an increase of 85%, plug-in hybrid commercial vehicle production 673, an increase of 447%.

    January to July 2014, total production of new energy vehicles, 25,946, an increase of 280%. Among them, the pure electric passenger car production 13,829, an increase of nearly 7 times, plug-in hybrid vehicle production 5027, an increase of nearly 10 times; pure electric commercial vehicle production 2795, an increase of 46%, unplugged hybrid commercial vehicle production 4295, an increase of 60%.<<

    http://bit.ly/1pPBrCx
    Aug 14, 2014. 12:12 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kandi Technologies' 10-Q Reveals Phantom Sales Growth And Other Serious Concerns [View article]
    Lehrdude: I find this comment from the same quote even more telling of the author's real motive in writing this POS:

    "But shorts can't afford the risk of the doubt. They need to cover before then and it seems you are fully aware of that".
    Ben
    17 Jun, 12:16 PMReply
    Jul 23, 2014. 08:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sino Agro Food: Take Action While You Are Waiting [View article]
    well said RealDutch. As the title of the article implies, the action to take is to get in now while the stock is deeply undervalued (much more than when I got in 4 years ago). Even if it's just for the juicy dividend if you can wait a couple of years. My projection shows that the eps without the mega farm should be at least about $3 by the end of FY 2017 or in about 5 years. Add about .80 from your Mega Farm table, you are looking at a total eps of $3.80 in about 5 years (if they donot sign another MF deal until then). Assume a payout ratio of 30% for an annual yield of about 3% (P/E 10) you may expect an annual dividend of $1.14 per share. Yes per share that costs less than 50c now. And expect pps of at least 40. Where else do you find a stock like that?

    "Take action while you are waiting" !
    Jun 11, 2014. 07:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sino Agro Food: Take Action While You Are Waiting [View article]
    "even at a PPS of 10x, the shares would trade at a P/E of 7 over ttm earnings (probably 5x forward)"

    is this a typo? Did you mean "even at a P/E of 10" and "trade at a pps of 7"? The ttm eps is $0.70 last time I looked.
    Jun 10, 2014. 09:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How China Has Become The Favorite Country For Electric Vehicle Companies [View article]
    I stand corrected. Based on the article that Art Porcari just quoted this morning, Kandi's production in April was 1536 out of 2562 total passenger PEV's produced in the PRC, accounting for a whopping 60%. The undisputed #1 EV manufacturer in China.
    Jun 3, 2014. 10:28 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How China Has Become The Favorite Country For Electric Vehicle Companies [View article]
    Thanks for an excellent article, Michael. You pointed out:
    "Between January to April 2014, China has already produced 14,538 new energy vehicles and the annual production is projected to exceed 50,000 for the year, a nearly 300% increase year over year".

    Let me add that in the passenger EV category the production # in that period was 6,833 cars of which almost 40% (2,679 units) was produced by Kandi alone. True to its vision of becoming the #1 of PEV manufacturers in China, with a current annual production capacity of 700K units and more plants coming soon in Hainan, Shandong and Rugao City.

    http://yhoo.it/1orTKLX
    Jun 3, 2014. 08:01 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sino Agro Food: Profiting From The Growth Of Food Demand In China [View article]
    when you invest in this space, there are only 2 things that really count: legitimacy and big durable growth. Both requires deep DD before a valid answer can be reached. Donot take it from anybody else. Because you will come back with more questions. JMO
    Dec 12, 2013. 11:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sino Agro Food: Profiting From The Growth Of Food Demand In China [View article]
    Dutch Trader: I have read most (if not all) your SA articles on chinese companies in the past. Would be great to see you write about SIAF, a real gem imo. The two most interesting near term operational catalysts (besides up- and crosslisting) are:

    1) the opening of the abattoir and meat-processing facilities at the San Jiang cattle/sheep farm in a few weeks that will quadruple that sub's revenue from 50M this year to 200M next year and will likely increase the valuation of the mother company from 0.6 currently to a double digit P/E based on a pre IPO valuation performed by an independent appraiser

    2) a mega prawn farm with an annual production of over 300,000 MT (compared to 1,000 to max 2,000 MT of its current prawn and fish farms). If that farm reaches only half production capacity in 4-5 years and only owned 50% by SIAF by then, we are looking at an eps of about $3.6 alone from that farm. Plus earnings generated from its many other profit centers (16+ currently all growing at 40- 50% average annual pace). Talk about a real growth company that's also paying a good dividend.
    Dec 12, 2013. 10:51 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kandi Technologies' Visionary Urban Transport Model [View article]
    thanks for the correction, Art. Anyway, it seems that Mr Hu would not
    mind paying a small usage fee to the JV to have thousands of JNJs produced at Changxing's fully automated production lines and keep 100% of sales proceeds for KNDI as long as the asset transfer to the JV has not been finalized, right? What surprised me is to see that he is using Jinhua to produce the Panda EV for the JV. He's the guy who calls the shots at both plants, so why not?
    Oct 16, 2013. 09:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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