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bogus07

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  • A Different Case For Valuing Kandi [View article]
    Mr Wallace: Do you drive by looking in the rearview mirror? Or does a ice hockey player play by looking where the puck is? When trying to assess a growth company with disruptive technology like Kandi (or Microsoft in the early 80's, Apple in 2008-09 before the launch of its Ipad and Iphone...) , it helps to look forward ,or in the ice hockey analogy, look where the puck is going, not where it has been or is. Otherwise, by applying standard valuation metrics to such companies, what you come up with is utter nonsense.

    Huh... compare Kandi's EV near-future EV production growth with the 14.9% growth rate for EVs to 2018 by the Irish Research and markets? How about try to put Kandi in the right context of China's rapidly growing EV market and understand that what we are seeing is just the early stage of a very dynamic market with many floodgates still NOT open, like Hangzhou and many other cities having not even released their subsidy policy critical to Kandi;s EV sales? Here is a statistic that shows that, even in the context just mentioned, China's July NEV production of pure EV passenger cars (the market Kandi is in) has grown 1700% compared to last year and 700% in the first 7 months of 2014. Of course there is a lot more relevant research and evidence to back up the growth assumptions made by Gerard Klein and Rob Cass in their most recent articles if you care to do serious DD here which I donot think you did.

    >>According to the National Commission by letter Equipment Industry Statistics, July, new energy vehicles in pure electric passenger car production 3728, an increase of 17 times, plug-in hybrid vehicle production 1036, no production in the same period last year; pure electric commercial vehicle production 362, an increase of 85%, plug-in hybrid commercial vehicle production 673, an increase of 447%.

    January to July 2014, total production of new energy vehicles, 25,946, an increase of 280%. Among them, the pure electric passenger car production 13,829, an increase of nearly 7 times, plug-in hybrid vehicle production 5027, an increase of nearly 10 times; pure electric commercial vehicle production 2795, an increase of 46%, unplugged hybrid commercial vehicle production 4295, an increase of 60%.<<

    http://bit.ly/1pPBrCx
    Aug 14 12:12 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kandi Technologies' 10-Q Reveals Phantom Sales Growth And Other Serious Concerns [View article]
    Lehrdude: I find this comment from the same quote even more telling of the author's real motive in writing this POS:

    "But shorts can't afford the risk of the doubt. They need to cover before then and it seems you are fully aware of that".
    Ben
    17 Jun, 12:16 PMReply
    Jul 23 08:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sino Agro Food: Take Action While You Are Waiting [View article]
    well said RealDutch. As the title of the article implies, the action to take is to get in now while the stock is deeply undervalued (much more than when I got in 4 years ago). Even if it's just for the juicy dividend if you can wait a couple of years. My projection shows that the eps without the mega farm should be at least about $3 by the end of FY 2017 or in about 5 years. Add about .80 from your Mega Farm table, you are looking at a total eps of $3.80 in about 5 years (if they donot sign another MF deal until then). Assume a payout ratio of 30% for an annual yield of about 3% (P/E 10) you may expect an annual dividend of $1.14 per share. Yes per share that costs less than 50c now. And expect pps of at least 40. Where else do you find a stock like that?

    "Take action while you are waiting" !
    Jun 11 07:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sino Agro Food: Take Action While You Are Waiting [View article]
    "even at a PPS of 10x, the shares would trade at a P/E of 7 over ttm earnings (probably 5x forward)"

    is this a typo? Did you mean "even at a P/E of 10" and "trade at a pps of 7"? The ttm eps is $0.70 last time I looked.
    Jun 10 09:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How China Has Become The Favorite Country For Electric Vehicle Companies [View article]
    I stand corrected. Based on the article that Art Porcari just quoted this morning, Kandi's production in April was 1536 out of 2562 total passenger PEV's produced in the PRC, accounting for a whopping 60%. The undisputed #1 EV manufacturer in China.
    Jun 3 10:28 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How China Has Become The Favorite Country For Electric Vehicle Companies [View article]
    Thanks for an excellent article, Michael. You pointed out:
    "Between January to April 2014, China has already produced 14,538 new energy vehicles and the annual production is projected to exceed 50,000 for the year, a nearly 300% increase year over year".

    Let me add that in the passenger EV category the production # in that period was 6,833 cars of which almost 40% (2,679 units) was produced by Kandi alone. True to its vision of becoming the #1 of PEV manufacturers in China, with a current annual production capacity of 700K units and more plants coming soon in Hainan, Shandong and Rugao City.

    http://yhoo.it/1orTKLX
    Jun 3 08:01 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sino Agro Food: Profiting From The Growth Of Food Demand In China [View article]
    when you invest in this space, there are only 2 things that really count: legitimacy and big durable growth. Both requires deep DD before a valid answer can be reached. Donot take it from anybody else. Because you will come back with more questions. JMO
    Dec 12 11:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sino Agro Food: Profiting From The Growth Of Food Demand In China [View article]
    Dutch Trader: I have read most (if not all) your SA articles on chinese companies in the past. Would be great to see you write about SIAF, a real gem imo. The two most interesting near term operational catalysts (besides up- and crosslisting) are:

    1) the opening of the abattoir and meat-processing facilities at the San Jiang cattle/sheep farm in a few weeks that will quadruple that sub's revenue from 50M this year to 200M next year and will likely increase the valuation of the mother company from 0.6 currently to a double digit P/E based on a pre IPO valuation performed by an independent appraiser

    2) a mega prawn farm with an annual production of over 300,000 MT (compared to 1,000 to max 2,000 MT of its current prawn and fish farms). If that farm reaches only half production capacity in 4-5 years and only owned 50% by SIAF by then, we are looking at an eps of about $3.6 alone from that farm. Plus earnings generated from its many other profit centers (16+ currently all growing at 40- 50% average annual pace). Talk about a real growth company that's also paying a good dividend.
    Dec 12 10:51 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kandi Technologies' Visionary Urban Transport Model [View article]
    thanks for the correction, Art. Anyway, it seems that Mr Hu would not
    mind paying a small usage fee to the JV to have thousands of JNJs produced at Changxing's fully automated production lines and keep 100% of sales proceeds for KNDI as long as the asset transfer to the JV has not been finalized, right? What surprised me is to see that he is using Jinhua to produce the Panda EV for the JV. He's the guy who calls the shots at both plants, so why not?
    Oct 16 09:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kandi Technologies' Visionary Urban Transport Model [View article]
    Wangxi: I think things are currently pretty fluid b/w Kandi and the JV. Officially the JV is not even fully operational b/c Geely has not yet done its share of transferring $80m asset in to the JV in order to seal the deal. So, although Kandi has already dedicated its Changxing plant to the JV, Kandi still has a right to use the plant to produce the JNJs and sell them as their own cars to ZZY, or maybe just pay a small usage fee to the JV. Onace the JV is in business (b/c Geely has fulfilled its financial duties) then the JV profit will be split 50/50 as you said. Remember that Mr Hu is also the general manager of the JV. Conversely he can use his own Jinhua plant to produce the JL7001 (Panda EV) and maybe charge the JV a certain usage fee. But it makes sense to dedicate all production lines at Changxing to the JNJs for now b/c of the much higher demand for the JNJ vs the JL7001.not only b/c of its lower price and also b/c of the higher subsidy the JNJ gets based on its larger range (>150km). As to your second question, Kandi has 10 MIIT approved cars (the JV has only one which is the JL7001) that it can sell to any provinces outside Zheijiang. The best seller (for both the carshare and long-lease program) is again the 2-door JNJ which will cost the buyer only about $3000 before local subsidies that may be another $500 at least.
    Oct 15 09:21 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kandi Technologies' Visionary Urban Transport Model [View article]
    Excellent article. One of the pics in your article shows a 4-door Panda EV if I am not mistaken. Is it available for rent already?
    Oct 15 09:45 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China Ceramics Factory Visit Shows Business Is Fundamentally Sound Despite Weak First Half Sales [View article]
    so far this year two China companies have TMK successfully IPO'ed in the US, LITB and CCCR. SIAF is applying for a listing on Nasdaq, not sure if it will be approved.
    Oct 11 08:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China Ceramics Factory Visit Shows Business Is Fundamentally Sound Despite Weak First Half Sales [View article]
    The best China play? I can see the prospects of CCCL b/c my wife and me have both owned it for years. I have also researched and owned a multitude of other China small caps before almost completely exiting this space a few years ago after the debacles of CCME , PUDA, LPH and alike. To me, the "best" China play currently must meet these two top criteria: a) being a safe and fraudfree play with respect to corporate structure, conduct of business, sector with strong PRC support and protection from domestic and foreign competition; and b) offering an exceptional explosive growth potential in the next 1-10 years. "Explosive" means a potential 50- to 100-bagger to make it worthwhile forr me to stay in this space. Currently I know of only two China smallcap names that meet that definition: KNDI and SIAF. I am fully aware that even these two may turn out to fool me.
    Oct 10 05:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Long/Short Battle For Hill “KNDI” Has Become A War [View instapost]
    Thanks for providing startling stats. Any observations on how options were used by shorts shortly before publication of a hit piece?
    Oct 9 08:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does Kandi Hold China's Solution To An Impending Consumer Mobility Crisis? [View article]
    Sincere thanks for a very informative article, Art. You stated:
    "The EVs for the CarShare program are being sold by KNDI with the approximate $4000US battery included, whereas the Hangzhou lease program cars are sold without the battery".
    So what will the 2-door EVs sell for in these cases? I suppose the buyer gets a subsidy of 35,000 RMB although the car if equipped with 4 batteries would qualify for the higher subsidy of 50,000 RMB, is it correct?
    Oct 8 04:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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