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GM Bankruptcy? Probability Using Options [View article]
And similarity to F? for expiration $5 and $10, F price now is $5,56. Let's see ratio probability from $5 to $5,56 is 0.899 and $5,56 to $10 is 0.556. Which 0.899 is greater than 0.556.
Derivative markets are useful to get an idea, yes you are right but just an idea, just be careful out there