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ZEV Capital

ZEV Capital
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  • GLD: Why Shouldn't It Drop Further? [View article]
    "Little reason to expect rallies in the precious metals ETFs."

    In my experience, the market does exactly what most people do not expect. That is what being a contrarian is all about.
    Jun 11 10:53 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Overreactions Galore [View article]
    Caution readers!!!
    This is horrific advice. The market under-prices unidentified risk and over-reacts to identified risk. This guy is going to lose you money!!! The sell off isn't about the FED!!! It's about China.

    When people like Gayed figure it out and start writing about it, it will be too late and I will be buying again.
    Jun 23 03:28 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mexico ETF: Attractive In Many Ways [View article]
    Dear PompanoFrog,
    Since I come from a science background I never really understood why Nassim Taleb despised finance MBAs so much as I read his books. Thank you for providing me a sample of what irritated him so much.
    You want a valuation of Mexico? You want 10 year historical data? You must be joking because the whole point of a Mexico investment thesis is that we are transitioning into a post-China manufacturing era. The author is one of the few people who considers demographics in his thesis and since demographics will dominate the future until the baby boomers die, the fact that Mexico is young is much more important than your jargon laden pseudo-intellectual babbling.
    Before I get too worked up, let me tell you what scientists call comparing valuations between various emerging markets. We call it comparing apples to oranges.
    Apr 19 01:32 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Valuations Support 1% Or Less For U.S. Stocks Over Next 20 Years [View article]
    Great summary of the ideas that the best investors are talking about. The nice thing about a market decline catalyzed by rapidly falling earnings is that people will have a hard time rationalizing their bullish outlook. I still get pissed when I think about Ben Stein pompously stating his bullish case in 2008 when it was clear that he had no clue about the risks.
    Apr 17 03:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Jim Chanos isn't backing off, laying out his bearish case on China in a new presentation entitled, China: The Edifice Complex. The arguments aren't new to anyone who's been following along: Property bubble, diminishing returns on the capital investment boom, and massive corruption at both the government and corporate levels. Priced in? China A Shares (CAF) fell years ago and they haven't gotten up. [View news story]
    The money to be made now is by betting against companies that rely on cheap Chinese labor. Some that come to mind are Apple ($AAPL) and all the $1 stores ($DLTR, $DG, $FDO)
    Apr 22 09:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks are "far from the overextended levels that prevailed at the prior peaks," says BAML, comparing the S&P 500 (SPY) today to March 2000 and October 2007. Earnings and dividend yields today are far higher; PE ratios, Price/Book, EV/EBITDA are all lower. "Third time a charm?" [View news story]
    BofA "strategist" uses overextended earnings to argue against overextended market prices? It is this kind of logic that makes wall street so entertaining. $spy
    Apr 16 10:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There was "open talk" of Cyprus leaving the euro during the latest EU conference call, reports Luke Baker in an outstanding bit of "inside baseball." Emotions are described as running "very high" and making it difficult to come up with rational solutions. The finmins were particularly miffed that Cyprus chose not to take part in the call. "The economy is going to tank in Cyprus no matter what," said Austria's Thomas Wieser. [View news story]
    Russia is the key. They will provide bailout with no financial strings attached when cyprus leaves EU. russia will demand military bases.
    Mar 21 03:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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18 Likes