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  • The Best Passive Retirement Strategy In The World  [View article]
    You can do in in about the same amount of Octave (a matlab knock-off that you can download for free) code and save yourself some bucks.

    I think you would need a much larger sample size of VO than 10 years and could get away with statistics on quarterly returns rather than daily returns but otherwise "what he said".
    Jun 27, 2014. 01:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Yield Vs. Dividend Growth Revisited - Does It Matter?  [View article]
    Yes to the insiders the DGI articles comment section is more like church---lots of love an support. To those who haven't accepted all of your tenants you attack any dissenting comments like bees attacking the intruder in the hive. You have such a team spirit thing going on here that the faithful fell compelled to rebut any point and agree with the rebuttals en-mass regardless of the quality of the rebuttal.

    Here more than any other subject area on SA, I have seen people bring up the number of likes a person has. For many of you it is about having your own little "Cheers"-a place to call your own--where the regulars like each other. The niceness part is what lets the information part get a little religious.

    As I said before I feel very little pain if a few people that I don't know say bad things about me because they believe things that I don't. I look at this as gathering data on the nature and mechanics of group think--my primary interest here.
    Jun 26, 2014. 08:46 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • First Solar: Land-Intensive, Seasonal, Part-Time Energy  [View article]
    You are a good loyal employee.
    Jun 26, 2014. 02:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sturm, Ruger & Co.: My Number 1 Share Buyback Candidate  [View article]
    You don't feel the need to consider that gun sales have been unusually elevated for the past few years and may return to pre-Obama levels? Maybe those insiders and folks that are contemplating the share buybacks (but waiting) are thinking that way.
    Jun 26, 2014. 01:33 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Time To Sell Stocks And Buy Bonds?  [View article]
    There hasn't been a rising interest rate environment in the last 10 years. Stocks and bonds may both fall when the Fed starts raising rates. Unless you are holding individual bonds that, I would watch them more closely than the stocks.
    Jun 26, 2014. 12:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Yield Vs. Dividend Growth Revisited - Does It Matter?  [View article]
    Yes, I like to go into articles with certain subjects and say "it ain't necessarily so". I don't believe much outside of accepted science, so that is mostly what I have to say. The dissenting opinion is also of value to people that haven't fervently made up their mind on a subject. I had an opinion on the author's assumptions, very simplistic, and I stated them.

    I have a history of posting in the dividend articles because there is more certainty here than anywhere else on SA. You guys have said the same things to each other for so long, you have absolute faith and unity. I always feel like I am in middle school when I am posting on dividend growth articles (way more than anywhere else). You guys just like each other up when the dissenter is attacked, no matter how poorly thought out the attack.

    So I treat dividend growth articles a bit like middle school, I am not always belittling. At the same time I try to talk to the non-middle school crowd by actually making points. Do I feel unwelcome if the peace guy takes a little time out of his day to say Peace and your pointless, and four (and counting) other peace lovers like that? Nah.
    Jun 26, 2014. 12:52 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Time To Sell Stocks And Buy Bonds?  [View article]
    I'll stick with stocks until QE3 is over and interest rates are over say 1.25%.
    Jun 26, 2014. 12:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GoPro IPO Set To Launch  [View article]
    I've had a GoPro for four years that I use mostly for skiing. A few new generations have come out since I bought mine with lots of cool features. I might buy another. I am not sure I would invest though. They have cool product line but it is too small of a mote for me.
    Jun 25, 2014. 02:21 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gun Production: As American As Apple Pie  [View article]
    Yeah SHWC was down more than 2% and RGR was down a bit less than 2%. RGR wins.
    Jun 24, 2014. 11:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Solar Market Evolution  [View article]
    Maybe we could just put you on a bicycle hooked to a generator, feed you grass, and get our free electricity that way.
    Jun 24, 2014. 11:28 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Yield Vs. Dividend Growth Revisited - Does It Matter?  [View article]
    I believe in the efficient market for 97.8% of the investors--that includes me and everyone else that is here. The 2.2% mostly work for institutions and have algorithms that I don't know anything about but I would expect that they include fairly detailed simulations of what factors impact prices of various assets--simulations built by teams over decades and constantly evaluated and refined. They probably control enough of the invested money--in the neighborhood of 10% of the invested money--that they get all of the alpha than can be had. They get all of the alpha because all buyers of a stock are in competition to determine the correct price to pay for a stock. They determine the price that should be paid more accurately and take advantage of buying opportunities because they have a HFT bot buying for them.

    If you are here the best algorithm is MPT, which does not attempt to achieve alpha and makes the least dubious assumptions about the future. These assumptions do have some degree of dubocity though and so, I only mostly follow it. The calculations that pull me from MPT relate to evaluating stocks and bonds relative to the current risk-free interest rate. Because of the current rates, I have nothing that resembles a bond in my portfolio. I have a non-describable and non-quantifiable strategy. That is why I don't go around telling people what I think is best way to invest.
    Jun 24, 2014. 07:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Yield Vs. Dividend Growth Revisited - Does It Matter?  [View article]

    Yes it would be a much more difficult task. You would need write an algorithm that acted as your stock picker. It would need to also model the criteria for when they are sold, so that it would deal with the constantly changing world. For me, 30 years of stock performance would not be nearly enough. You would need to back test it over an even larger time-frame--at least one lifetime.

    It is hard, that is why you don't see SA articles that do it right. Not to mention that after doing all that work, you would almost certainly discover that you don't beat the indexes. Much better to just entertain the predisposed.
    Jun 24, 2014. 02:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Yield Vs. Dividend Growth Revisited - Does It Matter?  [View article]
    " can, indeed, be evaluated and quantified" No it can't. Unless you can say exactly how you are picking the stocks, your stock picking method cannot be evaluated and quantified.

    Jun 24, 2014. 02:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Yield Vs. Dividend Growth Revisited - Does It Matter?  [View article]
    You quoted that sentence but didn't read it. I never said I picked stocks with an algorithm. I said you can't quantify the performance of a stock picking strategy unless it is an algorithm.
    Jun 24, 2014. 02:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Smith & Wesson - Wait Before You Pull The Trigger  [View article]
    You need to have a catchy title. I thought "Wait Before You Pull the Trigger" was pretty good. Did you catch some of the recent articles on SWHC and RGR:

    "Time to Reload"
    "Start 2014 Off with a Bang"
    "Shooting the Bull"
    "Real Straight Shooters"

    These are almost irresistible.
    Jun 24, 2014. 02:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment