Seeking Alpha

larocag

larocag
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View larocag's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Dividend Yield Vs. Dividend Growth Revisited - Does It Matter? [View article]
    Most people that do it use some statistics. But before you do the statistics, you need to figure out the universe of assets that you are going to use to compute the statistics. Since you DGI guys don't use an algorithm to choose your assets (but read each other for "high quality" companies), you won't be able to agree on the universe of assets on which to compute the statistics. If you could agree on an algorithm to pick the assets then you could back-test it. You would find that DGI is no better than ( or probably not as good as) returns from S&P. Others have already done the exercise.

    As long as you don't have an algorithmic way of picking stocks you can convince yourself that you do better than average--and no one can refute you.
    Jun 24, 2014. 01:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Yield Vs. Dividend Growth Revisited - Does It Matter? [View article]
    Yes, and your assumptions are so simplistic that it is a worthless model.

    Any real portfolio model has to model risk in some way. That would be over your audience's head. They like things simple and predictable and don't like to consider the possibility that those high-quality dependable dividend growth stocks might actually have risk.
    Jun 24, 2014. 01:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Yield Vs. Dividend Growth Revisited - Does It Matter? [View article]
    You do understand time zones I hope.

    I know you are comfortable with your portfolio--you said all of your stocks are above average. I don't know the future the way you guys think you do so I can't tell you which half (or so) you are wrong about.
    Jun 24, 2014. 01:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Smith & Wesson For The Value Hunter [View article]
    Many (many) words with few directed toward the one thing that matters--future gun sales.
    Jun 24, 2014. 01:43 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Yield Vs. Dividend Growth Revisited - Does It Matter? [View article]
    I agree with both things you said. I agree with the second thing because it is exactly what I said. I agree with the first thing if you throw in the words "unrealistic to such an extent that it is useless" in front of the word exercise.
    Jun 23, 2014. 09:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Yield Vs. Dividend Growth Revisited - Does It Matter? [View article]
    When you extrapolate the yield and growth rate into the future as though nothing else is ever going to change things, you are counting of the past behavior to persist into the future. In your case nothing will change for years into the future.

    Spreadsheet analyses like the one you presented are worthless.

    You guys ignore the fact that everything about the future is in risk to some extent. That yield and growth rate, as well as the value of your dividend stock are as at much in risk as the values of other stocks.
    Jun 23, 2014. 08:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Yield Vs. Dividend Growth Revisited - Does It Matter? [View article]
    You DGI folks sure do believe that past performance is a guarantee of future gain (when you invest in DGI stocks).
    Jun 23, 2014. 01:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gun Production: As American As Apple Pie [View article]
    SWHC may have said that it thinks we are on way back down today.

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jun 20, 2014. 01:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gun Production: As American As Apple Pie [View article]
    Does the sideshow of where Glocks are manufactured really matter, Glock still takes market share from RGR and SWHC.
    Jun 20, 2014. 01:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FOMC Decision: Zero Surprise Policy [View article]
    Very much ado about nothing. You can sure crank it out.
    Jun 20, 2014. 12:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Sturm, Ruger A Good Dividend Pick? [View article]
    The gun nuttiness may have peaked already.

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jun 19, 2014. 06:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should You Be 100% Invested In Stocks? [View article]
    I am a retiree with 100% of my money invested in stocks. QE and ZIRP are my bond allocation. Unwinding these things is not going to be good for bonds. I may try to do a little market timing when I think the first interest rate increase is about 8 months away. At that point it might be worth trying a little cash.
    Jun 15, 2014. 09:45 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Great Correction Of 2014? Don't Drink The Kool-Aid [View article]
    Usually there are at least a couple of different flavors of Kool-Aid and the question is which flavor are you drinking. It's not like one side is drinking it and the other isn't. I drink the bull Kool-Aid. It tastes better most quarters. It is too hard to predict which quarters the bear Kool-Aid will taste better.
    Jun 11, 2014. 01:30 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Piketty Is Wrong: Part 3 - Policy Recommendations [View article]
    Too much counterpointing about too many things. I'll just stick with saying that I hardly think of the fact that Einstein had to wait a few years to be given a professorship and have his ideas completely accepted as an example where the population at large needed to get involved and set the physicists straight. They were revolutionary ideas. To me it seems they were accepted pretty darn fast.

    Look at something like global warming. As soon as you start letting at average Joe decide how physics works, you get into a big us versus them and people taking sides based on affinity to one portion of the group over another. Any actual science is irrelevant.
    Jun 10, 2014. 10:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Piketty Is Wrong: Part 3 - Policy Recommendations [View article]
    This is more interesting to me than the article. A quick scan shows it is a hand waving argument for an alternative tax plan that I am sure you have spent at least 15 minutes thinking about. No numbers no reality.

    Your criticism of the elites is a little random. The Einstein example is ridiculous. He was recognized as an elite by the elites before publishing on special relativity, Brownian motion, the photoelectric effect... if anything Einstein as an elite, rejected quantum mechanics. But there were enough other elites that it didn't matter. See not all of the elites agree. I would rather go with the average of the elites, than to get the lay folks into the discussion.

    Of course people that make decisions are going to make mistakes. If we ever devolved into a world where average people made all the decisions there would just be a much bigger list of mistakes.
    Jun 10, 2014. 03:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
1,466 Comments
1,580 Likes