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larocag

larocag
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  • Why Piketty Is Wrong: Part 3 - Policy Recommendations [View article]
    This is more interesting to me than the article. A quick scan shows it is a hand waving argument for an alternative tax plan that I am sure you have spent at least 15 minutes thinking about. No numbers no reality.

    Your criticism of the elites is a little random. The Einstein example is ridiculous. He was recognized as an elite by the elites before publishing on special relativity, Brownian motion, the photoelectric effect... if anything Einstein as an elite, rejected quantum mechanics. But there were enough other elites that it didn't matter. See not all of the elites agree. I would rather go with the average of the elites, than to get the lay folks into the discussion.

    Of course people that make decisions are going to make mistakes. If we ever devolved into a world where average people made all the decisions there would just be a much bigger list of mistakes.
    Jun 10 03:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Piketty Is Wrong: Part 3 - Policy Recommendations [View article]
    If you had something that profound to say, enough others would have recognized that by now and you wouldn't be writing here. Maybe if we get a Tea Party President we will know how much trouble would be caused by basing public policy on the content of SA articles. Those guys are sufficiently anti-elitist to ignore all that fancy book learnin.
    Jun 10 01:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's What Drives The VIX [View article]
    In both of those situations I would do nothing because I would have already been fully loaded-up. I don't put money in and pull it out very much. Market timers need to make too many correct decisions to beat buy and hold.

    If I did have money on the sidelines, in each of those cases, I would buy equities rather than a volatility ETF. Why fight contango?
    Jun 10 01:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Do We Need A Catalyst For The Next Big Drop In Gold? [View article]
    Use your calculus to get rid of the caps lock.
    Jun 10 03:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Piketty Is Wrong: Part 3 - Policy Recommendations [View article]
    How low on the food chain do I need to go to get a "balanced perspective"? Yes, you will need to show up on his radar for him to respond. I am just saying that you need to be in the guy's league to have something to say about what he says; otherwise, you are just talking to folks. Like we are doing here.
    Jun 10 02:48 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Earnings Yield On S&P 500 Points To Higher Levels By End Of 2014 [View article]
    You have to ask yourself questions when the "risk-free" rate is 15%.
    Jun 10 01:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Piketty Is Wrong: Part 3 - Policy Recommendations [View article]
    When you merit a response, I'll read your article.
    Jun 10 12:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's What Drives The VIX [View article]
    The VIX is a measure of how much (the moneyed) we all agree about the future. A low VIX means the bears are not thinking much different than the bulls. A low VIX means there are not a lot of chaotic events occurring that different people see playing out in materially different ways. A low VIX means nice normal things and that is usually good for business. When bad things happen the VIX goes up and the market goes down because the bears pull out their money. There is no predictive value in the VIX, whatever you saw happen in the VIX you saw happen in the market.

    I personally would never invest based on the direction of future agreement. The likely direction of other future events are easier to predict. I would rather bet that the market will go up (as it usually does measured over months or years) than to bet on "something bad is bound to happen soon" or, the even more dubious, "nothing bad will happen soon" bet.
    Jun 9 11:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dangerously Miasmic Myth Of A 4% Safe Withdrawal Rate [View article]
    "There is no such thing as a Safe Withdrawal Rate and believing otherwise is dangerous."

    This of course leaves you no way to ever determine if you are ready to retire. If you want metaphysical certainty find yourself a religion.

    Not only did you not say anything useful, as in an improvement to the 4% rule, you spent most of your article talking about asset allocation, not the 4% rule. You did point out that it doesn't work for everyone in the world. On the other hand most places in the world they are happy to live to the age that we start spending that 4%.
    Jun 9 01:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Piketty Is Wrong: Part 3 - Policy Recommendations [View article]
    I'll wait to read Piketty's rebuttal.
    Jun 9 01:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Bust Is Inevitable According To Austrian Business Cycles [View article]
    Austrian economics, the Fed and gold. Do you need to read any more to know what the article says?
    Jun 6 03:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Molycorp's Long-Term Debt Does Not Reflect Bankruptcy Risk [View article]
    Judging from the tone of the conversation, I'd guess you guys have discussed Molycorp before.
    Jun 6 01:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Watch Out For The Buyback Taper [View article]
    When 27 out of 30 companies are buying back their own stock, 27 out of 30 companies are sitting on a big wad of cash they they want to invest and those 27 companies decided that the best option was to invest in themselves.

    To me that says that there are at least two bullish things going-on. First they managed to get the big old wad of cash in the first place. Unless all of those companies are selling-off assets that probably means that they are earning a bunch of money. Second they decided that their current business is the most profitable option as to where they should invest that cash.
    Jun 5 01:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Washington State's Minimum Wage Experience [View article]
    Anyone that believes there is some direct, measurable, or calculable formula the wage increases correspond to any macro-economic outcome is delusional.

    I don't think that your experience with variable pay rates tells you anything about the minimum wage. It is an apples to oranges comparison.

    Perhaps you should start only offering the better paying projects to the employees that show-up at the end of the week. Part of getting a better employee is rewarding the better ones.
    Jun 5 01:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Watch Out For The Buyback Taper [View article]
    I doubt if there are such simple general statements that can be made about stock buy-backs. Each company that is contemplating a stock buy-back is making a decision about what to do with a bunch of cash that they are sitting-on. Companies in growth mode use all their money to grow--Amazon or Tesla are unlikely to be buying back stock. So we are talking about companies that are sitting on so much cash that they need to figure-out what to do with it. The people that run these companies are not so stupid that they can't find their way to the one source of true knowledge on the subject--Daniel R. Moore at Seeking Alpha and make an informed decision on such an important matter.

    No really don't you think that companies that are contemplating buy-backs do a little research on the subject?
    Jun 5 12:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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